Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread
- Thread starter MC's Mix
- Start date
Tom Stewart will play back pocket not mid.
View: https://twitter.com/7NewsMelbourne/status/1755863733937799454
View: https://twitter.com/7NewsMelbourne/status/1755863733937799454
I havenāt sat down and really crunched the numbers by my gut feel is people are overthinking the early byes a little bit.
The way I see it, Team A avoids round 0 players to avoid their byes. Team B picks the team they see as being the best value/options and includes some round 0 players. It seems like a lot of people are comparing that extra premium vs everyone elseās 19th player, but thatās flawed logic. Itās not premium vs 19th, itās the aggregate of the top 18, so looking at a simplified example:
Team A: 6x A preimums, 6 B premiums, 6 rookies.
So they get say 6x 110 + 6x 95 + 6x 65 for 1620 points.
Team B: 8x A premiums + 3 B premiums + 7 rookies
So they get say 8x 110 + 3x 95 + 7x 65 for 1620 points
So while team B had one less premium, they overall scored the same but are also we position for future rounds with better premiums.
Not to say all the best premiums are round 0 and you definitely need a balance so it doesnāt skew too far, but itās worth objectively sitting back and comparing some of the low/none round 0 teams can those who have taken the best premiums regardless.
I think weāll find the team that gets the value picks right, and starts the best top premiums will still come out on top regardless of early byes.
Also worth noting, often in bye rounds it can be a premium that srops out due to injury or poor game. So no guarantee an extra premium is better.
Basically the point of this rant is, donāt pass on a gun selection because of round 0. If you want them, start them. Find balance, but avoiding a great player because of an early bye isnāt a guarantee to lead to more points!
The way I see it, Team A avoids round 0 players to avoid their byes. Team B picks the team they see as being the best value/options and includes some round 0 players. It seems like a lot of people are comparing that extra premium vs everyone elseās 19th player, but thatās flawed logic. Itās not premium vs 19th, itās the aggregate of the top 18, so looking at a simplified example:
Team A: 6x A preimums, 6 B premiums, 6 rookies.
So they get say 6x 110 + 6x 95 + 6x 65 for 1620 points.
Team B: 8x A premiums + 3 B premiums + 7 rookies
So they get say 8x 110 + 3x 95 + 7x 65 for 1620 points
So while team B had one less premium, they overall scored the same but are also we position for future rounds with better premiums.
Not to say all the best premiums are round 0 and you definitely need a balance so it doesnāt skew too far, but itās worth objectively sitting back and comparing some of the low/none round 0 teams can those who have taken the best premiums regardless.
I think weāll find the team that gets the value picks right, and starts the best top premiums will still come out on top regardless of early byes.
Also worth noting, often in bye rounds it can be a premium that srops out due to injury or poor game. So no guarantee an extra premium is better.
Basically the point of this rant is, donāt pass on a gun selection because of round 0. If you want them, start them. Find balance, but avoiding a great player because of an early bye isnāt a guarantee to lead to more points!
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Yeah that was my thought too. I think there are enough similar starting premiums that teams can pick a side without many round 0 premiums and still have comparable options.
If Team A and B pick the same structures, but with different options for who those players are, the team with less Round 0 premiums should be ahead. But I agree it wonāt be by as much as people first thought.
Hereās how I see my priorities for picking a team.
Priority 1 = pick you two captain options, being the players you think will finish the year with the highest total scores.
Priority 2 = pick all the best rookie options, except donāt start any Lions and Blues rookies as they have the round 2 bye, so we can see two scores, then see if theyāre picked after their bye for round 3.
Priority 3 = premiums and value options from non-Opening Round clubs
Priority 4 = value options from Opening Round clubs
Priority 5 = premiums from Opening Round clubs
If Team A and B pick the same structures, but with different options for who those players are, the team with less Round 0 premiums should be ahead. But I agree it wonāt be by as much as people first thought.
Hereās how I see my priorities for picking a team.
Priority 1 = pick you two captain options, being the players you think will finish the year with the highest total scores.
Priority 2 = pick all the best rookie options, except donāt start any Lions and Blues rookies as they have the round 2 bye, so we can see two scores, then see if theyāre picked after their bye for round 3.
Priority 3 = premiums and value options from non-Opening Round clubs
Priority 4 = value options from Opening Round clubs
Priority 5 = premiums from Opening Round clubs