Opinion Questions For Rowsus
- Thread starter Rowsus
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Hi Rowsus,
Before I start, I just wanted to say thanks for all the good work you do in this thread and elsewhere. I only joined the forum this year but I was visiting as a guest last year and I was able to learn a lot both from the questions people were asking of you, and your responses. I know notes of thanks like this don't pay the bills, but your work is appreciated all the same.
Now, for my question:
I'm looking to bring in a premium defender this week. I already have Shaw, Rance, Laird and Bartel. The three I'm choosing from are Docherty, Simpson, and Boyd.
Docherty - to me he seems the riskiest of the three. My personal view is that he's playing above his long term average, and that his scores will regress as the season goes on. That said, he's no more expensive than Simmo/Boyd, so doesn't it follow that Simmo/Boyd will also drop in price? He has a favourable breakeven as well, and it looks like the score jump does relate to a role change which is promising.
Simmo/Boyd - safer picks - I know what I'm getting with these two, but they aren't getting any younger and injuries might be more likely to strike (although Boyd's recent week off might help with this somewhat).
The end goal is to take 2 of these 3, but for this week only I'll need 1. Did you have any thoughts on which way to go?
Cheers!
Before I start, I just wanted to say thanks for all the good work you do in this thread and elsewhere. I only joined the forum this year but I was visiting as a guest last year and I was able to learn a lot both from the questions people were asking of you, and your responses. I know notes of thanks like this don't pay the bills, but your work is appreciated all the same.
Now, for my question:
I'm looking to bring in a premium defender this week. I already have Shaw, Rance, Laird and Bartel. The three I'm choosing from are Docherty, Simpson, and Boyd.
Docherty - to me he seems the riskiest of the three. My personal view is that he's playing above his long term average, and that his scores will regress as the season goes on. That said, he's no more expensive than Simmo/Boyd, so doesn't it follow that Simmo/Boyd will also drop in price? He has a favourable breakeven as well, and it looks like the score jump does relate to a role change which is promising.
Simmo/Boyd - safer picks - I know what I'm getting with these two, but they aren't getting any younger and injuries might be more likely to strike (although Boyd's recent week off might help with this somewhat).
The end goal is to take 2 of these 3, but for this week only I'll need 1. Did you have any thoughts on which way to go?
Cheers!
Thanks mate. Figured i'd post my whole team to see if anything else tickles your fancy in terms of trades this week.
Simpson, Bartel, Rance, Laird, Brown, Byrne (DBJ, Uebergang)
Dangerfield, Pendlebury, Selwood, T Mitchell, Ablett, Rockliff, Hewett, Petracca (Smith, Davis, MacPherson)
Martin, Jacobs (Wyatt)
Martin, Zorko, Hall, Westhoff, Barlow, Kerridge (Kennedy, Menadue)
With 280k in the bank I could go Martin > Goldy and Kennedy > JJK
Simpson, Bartel, Rance, Laird, Brown, Byrne (DBJ, Uebergang)
Dangerfield, Pendlebury, Selwood, T Mitchell, Ablett, Rockliff, Hewett, Petracca (Smith, Davis, MacPherson)
Martin, Jacobs (Wyatt)
Martin, Zorko, Hall, Westhoff, Barlow, Kerridge (Kennedy, Menadue)
With 280k in the bank I could go Martin > Goldy and Kennedy > JJK
Hey Rowsus,
Struggling this week.
Worried about backline and rookies and trying to reopen DPP
Most if not all of my cash cows except DBJ who will probably miss are still mooing or handy cover
However I cannot survive on these rookies all the time and need to improve side.
Only way I can do this is to maybe offload BKen or Wells to a Williams and upgrade a Ruggles, DBJ, Brown or Tippa to a Boyd or Rance.
I like BKen as he has been good cover and Wells should return this week or next.
Is it time to let go of BKen? Still have Petracca as cover in fwds aswell.
Only other concern is I still have one of JSmith, Davis, Keays, Hewett as M8 with Libba at M7.
Do I let go of BKen or Wells now or hold and wait for one of those other mid rookies to ripen.
Only 18 trades left
Struggling this week.
Worried about backline and rookies and trying to reopen DPP
Most if not all of my cash cows except DBJ who will probably miss are still mooing or handy cover
However I cannot survive on these rookies all the time and need to improve side.
Only way I can do this is to maybe offload BKen or Wells to a Williams and upgrade a Ruggles, DBJ, Brown or Tippa to a Boyd or Rance.
I like BKen as he has been good cover and Wells should return this week or next.
Is it time to let go of BKen? Still have Petracca as cover in fwds aswell.
Only other concern is I still have one of JSmith, Davis, Keays, Hewett as M8 with Libba at M7.
Do I let go of BKen or Wells now or hold and wait for one of those other mid rookies to ripen.
Only 18 trades left
Hi Brian,
I certainly believe those with Jacobs/Martin and no Goldy are at a fork in the road right now. You either jump this week, or you nearly are forced to wait until your team is complete or near complete. What's right for one coach, may not be right for another in this situation. I'm going Martin to Goldy this week, but that doesn't mean those that don't have missed the boat, or made the wrong decision. If you wait, it might work out best for your team, and if I jump now, it might work out best for my team. My combo after this week will be GoldNat with Currie as back up (when he plays!).
I really think some SC coaches undersell reversion to the mean. They are happy to jump on fallen Prems, which means they are banking on a reversion to the mean. Then they will jump on a flavour of the month, and wonder why his average has dropped after they got him. It's important to remember it works in both directions! So much so, I am even contemplating trading out Shaw if he gets up near $700k in two or three weeks!
It is dangerous just to assume a reversion to the mean will happen. You need to identify why the player is scoring outside of his expected range, and then try to work out if those reasons will continue.
Looking at Jacobs figures, he's not down on his 2015 averages by too much in any area. We can't compare H2A's of course, as they are not readily available, but his Kick to Handball is down a little on last season, as his Rebound 50. That might be important, as he might be missing that one or two SC points gold, intercept mark in the Def arc, each game. His Hitouts are down around 4/game on last season too. Some might say not having Dangerfield has dragged Jacobs H2A's Down, but that currently might account for 6 to 8 of his current 22 point drop on last seasons average. His last 4 averages are 102, 85, 115 and 108, and he's currently on 86. I think he can bounce back, but not all the way to that 105-108 area. If I had Jacobs, I would probably be prepared to hold him, and see what happens.
Martin is a different kettle of fish! In 2015 Martin averaged 22 disposals, this year it is 16. Last year 32 Hitouts, this year 26. Last year 6 marks, this year 4. Last year 3.4 Inside 50's, this year 1.8. Last year his K to H was 1.22:1, this year it is 0.76:1. To the naked eye, he's not playing that link up role on the wing, he did so much last season, and he's just not handling the ball well. I've seen him fumble so many times this season, where he was pretty sure handed last season. Is a reversion to the mean possible? I think the bigger question is, what is his mean? Has he just had a season and a half hot streak, which we have seen in SC before, and this is truly closer to his level, than the last season and a bit? I think he can lift his average, but I have no confidence he will score at a level that will be satisfying. We may have been too quick to declare, that 2015's performance was now his base level, and not part of a big scoring spike!
I don't think there is any point in grabbing Blicavs or Lycett, for as you said, you will just want to upgrade them again later. Tippett really shouldn't be considered for R2, but should be considered for F6.
Remember one of the golden rules in SC, if you are not sure which path to take, take the path that doesn't burn/use a trade.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.
I certainly believe those with Jacobs/Martin and no Goldy are at a fork in the road right now. You either jump this week, or you nearly are forced to wait until your team is complete or near complete. What's right for one coach, may not be right for another in this situation. I'm going Martin to Goldy this week, but that doesn't mean those that don't have missed the boat, or made the wrong decision. If you wait, it might work out best for your team, and if I jump now, it might work out best for my team. My combo after this week will be GoldNat with Currie as back up (when he plays!).
I really think some SC coaches undersell reversion to the mean. They are happy to jump on fallen Prems, which means they are banking on a reversion to the mean. Then they will jump on a flavour of the month, and wonder why his average has dropped after they got him. It's important to remember it works in both directions! So much so, I am even contemplating trading out Shaw if he gets up near $700k in two or three weeks!
It is dangerous just to assume a reversion to the mean will happen. You need to identify why the player is scoring outside of his expected range, and then try to work out if those reasons will continue.
Looking at Jacobs figures, he's not down on his 2015 averages by too much in any area. We can't compare H2A's of course, as they are not readily available, but his Kick to Handball is down a little on last season, as his Rebound 50. That might be important, as he might be missing that one or two SC points gold, intercept mark in the Def arc, each game. His Hitouts are down around 4/game on last season too. Some might say not having Dangerfield has dragged Jacobs H2A's Down, but that currently might account for 6 to 8 of his current 22 point drop on last seasons average. His last 4 averages are 102, 85, 115 and 108, and he's currently on 86. I think he can bounce back, but not all the way to that 105-108 area. If I had Jacobs, I would probably be prepared to hold him, and see what happens.
Martin is a different kettle of fish! In 2015 Martin averaged 22 disposals, this year it is 16. Last year 32 Hitouts, this year 26. Last year 6 marks, this year 4. Last year 3.4 Inside 50's, this year 1.8. Last year his K to H was 1.22:1, this year it is 0.76:1. To the naked eye, he's not playing that link up role on the wing, he did so much last season, and he's just not handling the ball well. I've seen him fumble so many times this season, where he was pretty sure handed last season. Is a reversion to the mean possible? I think the bigger question is, what is his mean? Has he just had a season and a half hot streak, which we have seen in SC before, and this is truly closer to his level, than the last season and a bit? I think he can lift his average, but I have no confidence he will score at a level that will be satisfying. We may have been too quick to declare, that 2015's performance was now his base level, and not part of a big scoring spike!
I don't think there is any point in grabbing Blicavs or Lycett, for as you said, you will just want to upgrade them again later. Tippett really shouldn't be considered for R2, but should be considered for F6.
Remember one of the golden rules in SC, if you are not sure which path to take, take the path that doesn't burn/use a trade.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.
Last edited:
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Hi Brian,
I certainly believe those with Jacobs/Martin and no Goldy are at a fork in the road right now. You either jump this week, or you nearly are forced to wait until your team is complete or near complete. What's right for one coach, may not be right for another in this situation. I'm going Martin to Goldy this week, but that doesn't mean those that don't have missed the boat, or made the wrong decision. If you wait, it might work out best for your team, and if I jump now, it might work out best for my team. My combo after this week will be GoldNat with Currie as back up (when he plays!).
I really think some SC coaches undersell reversion to the mean. They are happy to jump on fallen Prems, which means they are banking on a reversion to the mean. Then they will jump on a flavour of the month, and wonder why his average has dropped after they got him. It's important to remember it works in both directions! So much so, I am even contemplating trading out Shaw if he gets up near $700k in two or three weeks!
It is dangerous just to assume a reversion to the mean will happen. You need to identify why the player is scoring outside of his expected range, and then try to work out if those reasons will continue.
Looking at Jacobs figures, he's not down on his 2015 averages by too much in any area. We can't compare H2A's of course, as they are not readily available, but his Kick to Handball is down a little on last season, as his Rebound 50. That might be important, as he might be missing that one or two SC points gold, intercept mark in the Def arc, each game. His Hitouts are down around 4game on last season too. Some might say not having Dangerfield has dragged Jacobs H2A's Down, but that currently might account for 6 to 8 of his current 22 point drop on last seasons average. His last 4 averages are 102, 85, 115 and 108, and he's currently on 86. I think he can bounce back, but not all the way to that 105-108 area. If I had Jacobs, I would probably be prepared to hold him, and see what happens.
Martin is a different kettle of fish! In 2015 Martin averaged 22 disposals, this year it is 16. Last year 32 Hitouts, this year 26. Last year 6 marks, this year 4. Last year 3.4 Inside 50's, this year 1.8. Last year his K to H was 1.22:1, this year it is 0.76:1. To the naked eye, he's not playing that link up role on the wing, he did so much last season, and he's just not handling the ball well. I've seen him fumble so many times this season, where he was pretty sure handed last season. Is a reversion to the mean possible? I think the bigger question is, what is his mean? Has he just had a season and a half hot streak, which we have seen in SC before, and this is truly closer to his level, than the last season and a bit? I think he can lift his average, but I have no confidence he will score at a level that will be satisfying. We may have been too quick to declare, that 2015's performance was now his base level, and not part of a big scoring spike!
I don't think there is any point in grabbing Blicavs or Lycett, for as you said, you will just want to upgrade them again later. Tippett really shouldn't be considered for R2, but should be considered for F6.
Remember one of the golden rules in SC, if you are not sure which path to take, take the path that doesn't burn/use a trade.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.
I certainly believe those with Jacobs/Martin and no Goldy are at a fork in the road right now. You either jump this week, or you nearly are forced to wait until your team is complete or near complete. What's right for one coach, may not be right for another in this situation. I'm going Martin to Goldy this week, but that doesn't mean those that don't have missed the boat, or made the wrong decision. If you wait, it might work out best for your team, and if I jump now, it might work out best for my team. My combo after this week will be GoldNat with Currie as back up (when he plays!).
I really think some SC coaches undersell reversion to the mean. They are happy to jump on fallen Prems, which means they are banking on a reversion to the mean. Then they will jump on a flavour of the month, and wonder why his average has dropped after they got him. It's important to remember it works in both directions! So much so, I am even contemplating trading out Shaw if he gets up near $700k in two or three weeks!
It is dangerous just to assume a reversion to the mean will happen. You need to identify why the player is scoring outside of his expected range, and then try to work out if those reasons will continue.
Looking at Jacobs figures, he's not down on his 2015 averages by too much in any area. We can't compare H2A's of course, as they are not readily available, but his Kick to Handball is down a little on last season, as his Rebound 50. That might be important, as he might be missing that one or two SC points gold, intercept mark in the Def arc, each game. His Hitouts are down around 4game on last season too. Some might say not having Dangerfield has dragged Jacobs H2A's Down, but that currently might account for 6 to 8 of his current 22 point drop on last seasons average. His last 4 averages are 102, 85, 115 and 108, and he's currently on 86. I think he can bounce back, but not all the way to that 105-108 area. If I had Jacobs, I would probably be prepared to hold him, and see what happens.
Martin is a different kettle of fish! In 2015 Martin averaged 22 disposals, this year it is 16. Last year 32 Hitouts, this year 26. Last year 6 marks, this year 4. Last year 3.4 Inside 50's, this year 1.8. Last year his K to H was 1.22:1, this year it is 0.76:1. To the naked eye, he's not playing that link up role on the wing, he did so much last season, and he's just not handling the ball well. I've seen him fumble so many times this season, where he was pretty sure handed last season. Is a reversion to the mean possible? I think the bigger question is, what is his mean? Has he just had a season and a half hot streak, which we have seen in SC before, and this is truly closer to his level, than the last season and a bit? I think he can lift his average, but I have no confidence he will score at a level that will be satisfying. We may have been too quick to declare, that 2015's performance was now his base level, and not part of a big scoring spike!
I don't think there is any point in grabbing Blicavs or Lycett, for as you said, you will just want to upgrade them again later. Tippett really shouldn't be considered for R2, but should be considered for F6.
Remember one of the golden rules in SC, if you are not sure which path to take, take the path that doesn't burn/use a trade.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.
I must have structured my question better than previous ones or at least interested you as this is more detail than I have got from you recently.
Can't rep you until I spread some around.
Hi Brian,
I certainly believe those with Jacobs/Martin and no Goldy are at a fork in the road right now. You either jump this week, or you nearly are forced to wait until your team is complete or near complete. What's right for one coach, may not be right for another in this situation. I'm going Martin to Goldy this week, but that doesn't mean those that don't have missed the boat, or made the wrong decision. If you wait, it might work out best for your team, and if I jump now, it might work out best for my team. My combo after this week will be GoldNat with Currie as back up (when he plays!).
I really think some SC coaches undersell reversion to the mean. They are happy to jump on fallen Prems, which means they are banking on a reversion to the mean. Then they will jump on a flavour of the month, and wonder why his average has dropped after they got him. It's important to remember it works in both directions! So much so, I am even contemplating trading out Shaw if he gets up near $700k in two or three weeks!
It is dangerous just to assume a reversion to the mean will happen. You need to identify why the player is scoring outside of his expected range, and then try to work out if those reasons will continue.
Looking at Jacobs figures, he's not down on his 2015 averages by too much in any area. We can't compare H2A's of course, as they are not readily available, but his Kick to Handball is down a little on last season, as his Rebound 50. That might be important, as he might be missing that one or two SC points gold, intercept mark in the Def arc, each game. His Hitouts are down around 4game on last season too. Some might say not having Dangerfield has dragged Jacobs H2A's Down, but that currently might account for 6 to 8 of his current 22 point drop on last seasons average. His last 4 averages are 102, 85, 115 and 108, and he's currently on 86. I think he can bounce back, but not all the way to that 105-108 area. If I had Jacobs, I would probably be prepared to hold him, and see what happens.
Martin is a different kettle of fish! In 2015 Martin averaged 22 disposals, this year it is 16. Last year 32 Hitouts, this year 26. Last year 6 marks, this year 4. Last year 3.4 Inside 50's, this year 1.8. Last year his K to H was 1.22:1, this year it is 0.76:1. To the naked eye, he's not playing that link up role on the wing, he did so much last season, and he's just not handling the ball well. I've seen him fumble so many times this season, where he was pretty sure handed last season. Is a reversion to the mean possible? I think the bigger question is, what is his mean? Has he just had a season and a half hot streak, which we have seen in SC before, and this is truly closer to his level, than the last season and a bit? I think he can lift his average, but I have no confidence he will score at a level that will be satisfying. We may have been too quick to declare, that 2015's performance was now his base level, and not part of a big scoring spike!
I don't think there is any point in grabbing Blicavs or Lycett, for as you said, you will just want to upgrade them again later. Tippett really shouldn't be considered for R2, but should be considered for F6.
Remember one of the golden rules in SC, if you are not sure which path to take, take the path that doesn't burn/use a trade.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.
I certainly believe those with Jacobs/Martin and no Goldy are at a fork in the road right now. You either jump this week, or you nearly are forced to wait until your team is complete or near complete. What's right for one coach, may not be right for another in this situation. I'm going Martin to Goldy this week, but that doesn't mean those that don't have missed the boat, or made the wrong decision. If you wait, it might work out best for your team, and if I jump now, it might work out best for my team. My combo after this week will be GoldNat with Currie as back up (when he plays!).
I really think some SC coaches undersell reversion to the mean. They are happy to jump on fallen Prems, which means they are banking on a reversion to the mean. Then they will jump on a flavour of the month, and wonder why his average has dropped after they got him. It's important to remember it works in both directions! So much so, I am even contemplating trading out Shaw if he gets up near $700k in two or three weeks!
It is dangerous just to assume a reversion to the mean will happen. You need to identify why the player is scoring outside of his expected range, and then try to work out if those reasons will continue.
Looking at Jacobs figures, he's not down on his 2015 averages by too much in any area. We can't compare H2A's of course, as they are not readily available, but his Kick to Handball is down a little on last season, as his Rebound 50. That might be important, as he might be missing that one or two SC points gold, intercept mark in the Def arc, each game. His Hitouts are down around 4game on last season too. Some might say not having Dangerfield has dragged Jacobs H2A's Down, but that currently might account for 6 to 8 of his current 22 point drop on last seasons average. His last 4 averages are 102, 85, 115 and 108, and he's currently on 86. I think he can bounce back, but not all the way to that 105-108 area. If I had Jacobs, I would probably be prepared to hold him, and see what happens.
Martin is a different kettle of fish! In 2015 Martin averaged 22 disposals, this year it is 16. Last year 32 Hitouts, this year 26. Last year 6 marks, this year 4. Last year 3.4 Inside 50's, this year 1.8. Last year his K to H was 1.22:1, this year it is 0.76:1. To the naked eye, he's not playing that link up role on the wing, he did so much last season, and he's just not handling the ball well. I've seen him fumble so many times this season, where he was pretty sure handed last season. Is a reversion to the mean possible? I think the bigger question is, what is his mean? Has he just had a season and a half hot streak, which we have seen in SC before, and this is truly closer to his level, than the last season and a bit? I think he can lift his average, but I have no confidence he will score at a level that will be satisfying. We may have been too quick to declare, that 2015's performance was now his base level, and not part of a big scoring spike!
I don't think there is any point in grabbing Blicavs or Lycett, for as you said, you will just want to upgrade them again later. Tippett really shouldn't be considered for R2, but should be considered for F6.
Remember one of the golden rules in SC, if you are not sure which path to take, take the path that doesn't burn/use a trade.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.
To trade him with the intention of keeping him, you need to believe he can score at around 100, to fill a M8/9 role. If scores close to that, he will make just under $300k in profit. Unless you are travelling really well, it will be hard not to cash that profit in! He's nearly but not quite a catch 22. I don't think he's a must have, and his role will be interesting once GWS get Griffen and Smith back. I think with the right role, he can average 90, and be a good pick, otherwise, he will average 75, and be an ok pick. I don't see him as a must have, and I think it is quite possible that both those that didn't take him, and those that did, will both be happy. I'm going without him, but I'm doing a double upgrade this week, after last weeks double downgrade.
Martin to NicNat is a definite option (read 8 posts up). I don't think Tippett is a R2 option, but I do believe he could fill a useful F6 Ruck cover role.
Martin to NicNat is a definite option (read 8 posts up). I don't think Tippett is a R2 option, but I do believe he could fill a useful F6 Ruck cover role.
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A lot of it is subjective, and up to the observer.
To calculate a players current value, you divide their price by the current MN. Let's assume it is around 5,050 at the moment. Shaw is currently priced at $639,300, which means he is valued at around 126.6, with a B/E of 37. Your expectation as to whether you think he is worth the price is arrived at by comparing what you think he can score/average from here, and comparing it to the above number. In most cases it might be ok to overpay a little to get the number one player on any line, but not too much. If your expectation was that Shaw would score at 110 from here, I'd wait. You'd be better picking up a Mid you might be missing, that might score the same, or higher, for around the same price, or in most cases, even less.
So what about the flipside, that I alluded to above? Selling Shaw if he becomes overpriced. Well let's look at a scenario.
Shaw scores 110 each of the next 2 weeks, and now sits at: $682,000 (value 135/game) B/E 185, and has scored 1,303 points at 118.5.
That would give him 7 of his last 8 games at 110+, and realistically could be considered as the high point of his season. If his season slowed a little from there, and he finished with 110 average for the season, people would rightly say "WOW! an exceptional season for a Def." That would mean he has averaged 101.5 for his last 11 games, but at the start of those 11 games, he was valued at 135! At that point in time, it is quite possible that McVeigh (just as an example) could be priced at $440,000, and could be just about to hit his straps, and average 103 for the rest of the season. A trade of Shaw to McVeigh could look like this:
Out: Shaw, Rookie worth $350k
In: McVeigh, Prem worth $590k
You are 2 points/week better off with McVeigh, and have made a straight upgrade on a Rookie to a pretty good Prem, without using any cash! So you are money, points and trades better off.
Ok, to answer the obvious question. If Shaw scores at 101 in the last 11 games, won't he still be in the top 4 Defs for that period? Yes, he will, but that doesn't mean there is no merit to this idea. Firstly, if you are running short of trades, and Cash making Rookies, this gives you one "free" upgrade. Secondly, if you are travelling well for trades, consider this scenario. You traded Shaw out $683,000 with a B/E of 185. His next 3 games go 100, 80, 80, which is far from out of the question for someone who is going to average 101. He is now $561,200, with a B/E of 173. You are not far off being able to trade him back in at around $530,000 again! Of course, this might be a bit idealistic, and some will say you have wasted a trade, by trading him out, and back in again. They are forgetting, that you saved a trade, when you traded him out. You made a Rookie upgrade, without having to use a trade on a Rookie downgrade, to get the cash!
All well overpriced commodities should be looked at as "sell options". It doesn't mean you have to sell them, but the more overpriced they are, the more you should consider it!
To calculate a players current value, you divide their price by the current MN. Let's assume it is around 5,050 at the moment. Shaw is currently priced at $639,300, which means he is valued at around 126.6, with a B/E of 37. Your expectation as to whether you think he is worth the price is arrived at by comparing what you think he can score/average from here, and comparing it to the above number. In most cases it might be ok to overpay a little to get the number one player on any line, but not too much. If your expectation was that Shaw would score at 110 from here, I'd wait. You'd be better picking up a Mid you might be missing, that might score the same, or higher, for around the same price, or in most cases, even less.
So what about the flipside, that I alluded to above? Selling Shaw if he becomes overpriced. Well let's look at a scenario.
Shaw scores 110 each of the next 2 weeks, and now sits at: $682,000 (value 135/game) B/E 185, and has scored 1,303 points at 118.5.
That would give him 7 of his last 8 games at 110+, and realistically could be considered as the high point of his season. If his season slowed a little from there, and he finished with 110 average for the season, people would rightly say "WOW! an exceptional season for a Def." That would mean he has averaged 101.5 for his last 11 games, but at the start of those 11 games, he was valued at 135! At that point in time, it is quite possible that McVeigh (just as an example) could be priced at $440,000, and could be just about to hit his straps, and average 103 for the rest of the season. A trade of Shaw to McVeigh could look like this:
Out: Shaw, Rookie worth $350k
In: McVeigh, Prem worth $590k
You are 2 points/week better off with McVeigh, and have made a straight upgrade on a Rookie to a pretty good Prem, without using any cash! So you are money, points and trades better off.
Ok, to answer the obvious question. If Shaw scores at 101 in the last 11 games, won't he still be in the top 4 Defs for that period? Yes, he will, but that doesn't mean there is no merit to this idea. Firstly, if you are running short of trades, and Cash making Rookies, this gives you one "free" upgrade. Secondly, if you are travelling well for trades, consider this scenario. You traded Shaw out $683,000 with a B/E of 185. His next 3 games go 100, 80, 80, which is far from out of the question for someone who is going to average 101. He is now $561,200, with a B/E of 173. You are not far off being able to trade him back in at around $530,000 again! Of course, this might be a bit idealistic, and some will say you have wasted a trade, by trading him out, and back in again. They are forgetting, that you saved a trade, when you traded him out. You made a Rookie upgrade, without having to use a trade on a Rookie downgrade, to get the cash!
All well overpriced commodities should be looked at as "sell options". It doesn't mean you have to sell them, but the more overpriced they are, the more you should consider it!
Thanks Row. I was thinking the same thing in terms of JS but thought another informed opinion would be handy. Like how Williams gone about it so far though.
I was pondering Tippett this morning as an F6/R3 floater (via Wyatt) at worst. At a 92-93 average with the potential to go large (due to the role he plays)...he could be a great pick later in the year. Might also be the last time he's under 500k.
I guess my question is, do you think he'd make a good F6?
I was pondering Tippett this morning as an F6/R3 floater (via Wyatt) at worst. At a 92-93 average with the potential to go large (due to the role he plays)...he could be a great pick later in the year. Might also be the last time he's under 500k.
I guess my question is, do you think he'd make a good F6?
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