Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Row, not sure if you'll get time to get around to this before bounce down, if not its fine.

What's your take on Stef Martin at his price? I saw you said Brisbane have a favourable ruck draw, and he's been given the all clear to be number one ruck from here on.

I'm really trying to find value in players and obviously it Stef pays off he's a steal. Would you consider he $240k difference (and in my case a probably trade) over someone like Gawn worth it? I supposed it depends where the cash is spent, and in my case it's with either a saved trade or upgrade of Rance over Adams (with Adams still covering) PLUS Merrett over Greene.

I don't know if I'm reading too much into a saved trade and if the risk is worth it. Just want your opinion on it. Thanks

Hi bloke,
I read what you wrote in the other thread, and it really is a tough decision.
If it was any other position on the ground, you'd go the cheaper option, grab another upgrade, and save a trade. The Ruck is the only position on the ground that you shouldn't compromise on. A disappointing player traded in to be M5/6 can slide to M8, and while you curse him, he's not giving up many points, compared to most teams M8's. A disappointing Ruck choice has nowhere to slide!
I guess it comes down to how many trades you have left, and if you feel you need to make compromises to safely complete your team. If you think you can afford it trade-wise, I'd be recommending Gawn. If you are worried for your trade numbers, or you really think Martin can be within 10/game of Gawn from here to the end of the season, go Martin.
I hope that helped.

 

[bloke]

Hi bloke,
I read what you wrote in the other thread, and it really is a tough decision.
If it was any other position on the ground, you'd go the cheaper option, grab another upgrade, and save a trade. The Ruck is the only position on the ground that you shouldn't compromise on. A disappointing player traded into be M5/6 can slide to M8, and while you curse him, he's not giving up many points, compared to most teams M8's. A disappointing Ruck choice has nowhere to slide!
I guess it comes down to how many trades you have left, and if you feel you need to make compromises to safely complete your team. If you think you can afford it trade-wise, I'd be recommending Gawn. If you are worried for your trade numbers, or you really think Martin can be within 10/game of Gawn from here to the end of the season, go Martin.
I hope that helped.

Very much so, and I am honestly worried about my trade numbers.

I think I need to stick to what I have, run Adams as D6 and take Gawn. Too risky I think, wish I could see a few games from Martin to decide first

 

[Slammer]

Happy to help, as always.
I'm not sure exactly what you are saying there, but Zerrett has a B/E of 80, Gunston 95 and Hutchings 57. If you are worried someone is getting out of range for you, then pull the trigger. I know Hutch will never be a Prem, or even sub Prem player, but it would seem a pity to trade him out now, just when he might actually do what you got him for. He has to go at some stage, but if he can knock out a score against Brisbane, you have the opportunity to get some cash out of him.

Yeah thanks mate, I realised after I posted that Hutchings has BE of only 57. So I will hold. Appreciate your quick response and thoughts.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rowsus,

Not sure if you will read this in time but was wondering if you can assist with my captain choice today.
Probably going to lose league game this week but thought I would just have a crack anyway.
Can select Gawn or Heath Shaw or Dylan Shiel in hope they do a Barlow or Danger today.
Thinking Shaw against Essendon to control things from the back but not discounting Gawn at the SCG.
Do you think Gawn in the wet (most likely) at the SCG could go big with lots of stoppages? Or his hitouts to advantage my suffer due to the Swans midfield?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Not sure if you will read this in time but was wondering if you can assist with my captain choice today.
Probably going to lose league game this week but thought I would just have a crack anyway.
Can select Gawn or Heath Shaw or Dylan Shiel in hope they do a Barlow or Danger today.
Thinking Shaw against Essendon to control things from the back but not discounting Gawn at the SCG.
Do you think Gawn in the wet (most likely) at the SCG could go big with lots of stoppages? Or his hitouts to advantage my suffer due to the Swans midfield?

Hey Slammer,
I'm sorry, I just got up. I probably would have said, tough call, but Shaw just over Gawn.
I hope the way you jumped turns out to be right!

 

[Slammer]

Hey Slammer,
I'm sorry, I just got up. I probably would have said, tough call, but Shaw just over Gawn.
I hope the way you jumped turns out to be right!

All good mate. Just read this now myself and went Gawn..lol.

 

[Leroy]

Hi there Rowsus! Love all your analysis, particularly the end of year look at all the players.
You may have commented on this already but do you have any idea why Wines has been so mediocre this year?

Avereaged 100 in 2014 and 97 in an injury hit 2015 - this year he is injury free and averaging... 93. Is the loss of a real ruck at PA killing him? Or is it a change in game style or something else?

 

[Jurn Stern]

Hi there Rowsus! Love all your analysis, particularly the end of year look at all the players.
You may have commented on this already but do you have any idea why Wines has been so mediocre this year?

Avereaged 100 in 2014 and 97 in an injury hit 2015 - this year he is injury free and averaging... 93. Is the loss of a real ruck at PA killing him? Or is it a change in game style or something else?

Every Power midfielder is down this year. A combination of no ruckman and reduced interchange is hurting them. My 2 cents, hopefully Rowsus has the stats to back it up no pressure

 

[Bomber18]

Hey Rowsus,

Thanks again for your fantastic response re: rucks last week! Lycett still on the watchlist for my side after that discussion.

This week I'm interested in your thoughts on one of his potential centre bounce partners, Yeo! He dominated discussions in preseason and was wondering whether he's in your thoughts at all currently?

Here is a link to the preseason discussion: http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...Of-2015-Season?p=224977&viewfull=1#post224977

Darkie's useful breakdown of his 2015 scoring

Bearing that issue in mind, I've tried to split out Yeo's scoring across his mid and def games, and wins and losses based on your comments above. This time I treated the def games as 1-3, 21 and 22. Your explanations on 4, 17 and 23 make sense, and in 18-20 the uncertainty is perhaps higher, but more I50s than R50s does make it hard to see how he could have been playing pure back. That gives Yeo the following splits:

Def wins: 2 games @ 51 SC (total 102 points)
Def losses: 3 @ 49.33 (148)

Mid wins: 13 @ 96.85 (1259)
Mid losses: 2 @ 70 (140)
Mid draw: 1 @ 76 (76)

Total def: 5 @ 50 (250)
Total mid: 16 @ 92.19 (1475)

Total wins: 15 @ 90.73 (1361)
Total losses: 5 @ 57.6 (288)
Total draw: 1 @ 76 (76)

His high popularity + the Redden effect had me avoiding him in the preseason, however, I think a few things have changed since.
It seems Redden is slowly falling out of favor due to his very poor form. I wouldn't be surprised if I see him dropped to the WAFL soon.
Also, anyone watching WCE games will see that Yeo has had a role change from his fwd/mid role to a more mid/wing type role. According to Freako, his Centre Bounce Attendances in the last 3 weeks have been 4, 16 and 24 (season high). I'm predicting that continues as Simmo flagged changes to the WCE setup throughout the week and it seems Yeo into the mids was one of those changes.
Another plus for him is that the next 4 of his 6 games are at DS with two away games vs Blues, Pies (potentially winnable) at the MCG. Yeo averaging ~97 at DS this year.
Finally, he has 1.8% ownership in the top 1k (probably around 2-3% this week) despite his 9.4% overall. He's a definite unique in the top 1k, which I like!

I'm hoping he stays in the mids and if he does I think he could average potentially 100+ over the next 6 weeks and maybe 90-95 from here on (considering his tough final 3 against GWS, Haw and Crows). Also encouraged by the second halves of KK, Newnes and Higgins last year as mid pricer picks who had poor starts but great finishes.

My options in R15 are either making a downgrade trade and getting Doch or getting a $395k Yeo to save a trade (maybe one more as I can keep $70k cash in bank for LTIs). Another risky option could be JJ a straight in for R15 (too risky with his injury for mine). I already have Laird and Rance (this week), so for def options under $500k it seems Yeo is the best pick.
What are your thoughts?

 

[Eagling]

Hey Rowsus;

I'm sort of re-treading old ground here, but I'm considering bringing Dustin Martin in as my last FWD upgrade. However, the trades I require a convoluted compared with my other idea...

My team:

15 Trades, $180, 900 banked.

DEF: Shaw, Bartel, Howe, Yeo, McVeigh, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Collins, Tucker

MID: Dangerfield, Ablett, Pendlebury, Rockliff, Selwood, Priddis, Petracca, Trengove, Kerridge, MacPherson

RUC: Goldstein, Martin, Wyatt

FWD: Zorko, Deledio, Hall, Wells, Barlow, Adams, Uebergang, Cox.


These scenarios assume Hall is recalled, and MacPherson and Wyatt do not play.

Trade Scenario 1:

This week:

OUT: McDonald-Tipungwuti, MacPherson, Adams

IN: Rance, Joyce, Montagna.

This will give me 22 on field, and the next week, I should be able to get 18 players by going:

OUT: Collins, Tucker, Petracca

IN: Def Rookie, Phillips?, Hannebery.

Which uses six trades; it relies on Joyce getting another game/Wyatt being picked, as well as another two rookies appearing on the bubble. (I'd prefer a Defence Rookie, but with DPP, I can choose one on any line.)

However, Dustin Martin might just be a better option, but I can't afford him using MacPherson.

My team, post byes, should look like this:

DEF: Shaw, Bartel, Rance, McVeigh, Howe, Yeo, (???, Joyce)

MID: Dangerfield, Hannebery, Pendlebury, Ablett, Selwood, Rockliff, Priddis, Liberatore, (Phillips, Trengove, Kerridge)

RUC: Goldstein, Martin, Wyatt

FWD: Zorko, Montagna, Deledio, Hall, Wells, Barlow, (Uebergang, Cox)


Trade Scenario 2:

OUT: McDonald-Tipungwuti, Petracca, Adams

IN: Rance, Joyce?, Martin.

This gives me 21 players on the field instead of 22, as I will have seven playing forwards, as Priddis, Liberatore, MacPherson and Trengove will all miss in the midfield, and I'll have an extra body on the bench up forward.

Next week is a little harder; I'll need to trade 3 times to get 18 on field, and hope that Joyce keeps his spot.

Before Round 15, I'll have about $141k banked.

OUT: Tucker, Collins, MacPherson (unless he miraculously returns, in which case I do not need to trade, unless there happens to be three excellent rookies). (Assumes that Tucker+Collins =$460k between them)

IN: 3 rookies (assuming a total cost of $372k)

Should leave around $379, 000

I don't really want to trade Collins, because he seems to have good JS, and could be handy at D8 but I can't think of any way to keep him and get 18 on the park in Round 15.

---

Say Hannebery drops to $540k in Round 16, and Cox holds his value @ $260k.

I can then trade Cox - Hannebery (via Phillips?) (assuming my Rucks are available), leaving $99k in the bank. I'll be planning to upgrade someone to Lycett in Round 17; thereby reintroducing my Ruck Cover just after Lycett plays the Kangaroos.

My team should, after the Hannebery trade, look like this:

DEF: Shaw, Bartel, Rance, McVeigh, Howe, Yeo, (???, Joyce)

MID: Dangerfield, Hannebery, Pendlebury, Ablett, Selwood, Rockliff, Priddis, Liberatore, (???, Trengove, Kerridge)

RUC: Goldstein, Martin, Wyatt

FWD: Zorko, Martin, Deledio, Hall, Wells, Barlow, (Uebergang, Phillips)

---

I reckon the second option gives me a stronger team, but at cost of an extra trade (if I've calculated correctly) & I rely on more rookie options coming through. Additionally, if I want Ruck Cover, I'll have to make an additional trade again. Libba @ M8 is probably my weak spot, but I might be able to switch him late in the season.

Do you reckon it's worth the extra effort to get Dustin Martin in over Montagna?

 

[Bones]

Hi Rowsus,

Thinking ahead to after the byes - I will still need a mid premium and tossing up between the following:

Kerridge (f7) / Neale / FD (f8) or Petracca (f7) / Pendlebury / rookie (f8). The FD choice is because I will need a cheapie if I go that option.

I will already have Phillips at M8/9 to link with Kerridge/Petracca. My thinking is that I'd prefer Kerridge as cover (thinking Petracca will taper off) but to go into finals without Pendles?

Interested in your thoughts Row?

 

[Adrenaline]

hi row

my current mids is: danger, ablett, pendels, rocky, kennedy, hannes, priddis, hopper, libba, dunkley, trengrove

fwd line is: wells, martin, montayna, kerridge, hall, menadue, petracca zorko

im looking to upgrade one midfield and one forward. in my midfield i am considering the following:
shiel, ward, neale, and selwood

My forward line i am considering lids and merett. i was wondering what you opinion is regarding the above players? if you had to chose one based on there scoring potential from now who would that player be?

at this stage i am leaning towards neale and lids. richmond seem to have a better draw than the bombers

 

[_Slip_]

Morning Rowsus or should I say evening.

With the season half way completed and the byes in full swing, I am pondering whether my peg fits into a square or round hole.

My dilemma is whether to keep Petracca as my F7 for the season or trade him down to Phillips/Reid and bring in Currie for Goetz as my cover for the season. I can't have my cake and eat it too unfortunately. The plus is my mids are complete with Libba at M9.

Please help as I have literally reverse traded ten times in the last 24 hours.

 

[TopGrizzly]

Hey Rowsus, thanks for last week's advice. You've really put me on the right track.

I think my trades this week are reasonably clean cut, but wanted your professional opinion before I screw things up. There are a number of different variations that I could go with, see below:



Team: http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/afl/classic/other_teams/?tid=140872

Thanks again champ.

 

[Philzsay]

Hey Rowsus, thanks for last week's advice. You've really put me on the right track.

I think my trades this week are reasonably clean cut, but wanted your professional opinion before I screw things up. There are a number of different variations that I could go with, see below:

View attachment 1499

Team: http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/afl/classic/other_teams/?tid=140872

Thanks again champ.

Go Dempsey to Docherty, Dempsey is in the twilight stage of his career and is only ever going to be a mid 70's averaging player at best.

 

[stephen]

Hey Rowsus, thanks for last week's advice. You've really put me on the right track.

I think my trades this week are reasonably clean cut, but wanted your professional opinion before I screw things up. There are a number of different variations that I could go with, see below:

View attachment 1499

Team: http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/afl/classic/other_teams/?tid=140872

Thanks again champ.

Not sure if you wanted this to turn into a roundtable but my 2c would be that Docherty is a pretty big risk at his price, and one that only teams very near completion should be considering. Rance and Laird are both great options who are priced fairly and have the bye behind them. I'd be wanting to fill up that backline with premos so I'd go Dempsey, Mills and Petracca to Laird, Rance and Phillips.

 

[Chasing]

RORY SLOANE Hmmmmmm

 

[TopGrizzly]

Not sure if you wanted this to turn into a roundtable but my 2c would be that Docherty is a pretty big risk at his price, and one that only teams very near completion should be considering. Rance and Laird are both great options who are priced fairly and have the bye behind them. I'd be wanting to fill up that backline with premos so I'd go Dempsey, Mills and Petracca to Laird, Rance and Phillips.

The more the merrier Stephen! I like the Laird pick.

I already have Rance. Unfortunately 17k short of picking up Barlow unless I go against Philzsay's suggestion and trade Tippa instead of Dempsey perhaps there's a better option. A FWD/MID for <502k?

Considering Greene. As inconsistent as he's been, last two games >100, upcoming teams look alright for GWS and I'm in desperate need of some value picks.

 

[Couch Coach]

Rowsus,

I am looking at keeping one of Petracca or Kerridge as a M9 / F7 swingman but am unsure which I should keep.

Upon simple review Kerridge's average of 87 beats Petracca's 77 however looking at Bomber18's Analysis of SC Points in Wins notes the following on their respective draws:
"MEL (face 3 hard sides, 3 easy sides and a lot of "medium" sides, good run post byes)"
"CAR (face a very tough period R14-R19 but opens up late. Good option for LTI trade premiums)"

Therefore Melbourne's draw may enable more points however Cartons finals draw is far better.

I am leaning towards keeping Kerridge but his additional $75K may be better for "finishing off" my overall team.

Can you please provide your opinion?

Thank you in advance,

CC

 

[Bomber18]

Rowsus,

I am looking at keeping one of Petracca or Kerridge as a M9 / F7 swingman but am unsure which I should keep.

Upon simple review Kerridge's average of 87 beats Petracca's 77 however looking at Bomber18's Analysis of SC Points in Wins notes the following on their respective draws:
"MEL (face 3 hard sides, 3 easy sides and a lot of "medium" sides, good run post byes)"
"CAR (face a very tough period R14-R19 but opens up late. Good option for LTI trade premiums)"

Therefore Melbourne's draw may enable more points however Cartons finals draw is far better.

I am leaning towards keeping Kerridge but his additional $75K may be better for "finishing off" my overall team.

Can you please provide your opinion?

Thank you in advance,

CC

I'd vote for Petracca. You probably need the cover most during R16-19 where Melb have a good draw as that's the period you'd want to hold 1-2 week injuries. During the final 4 weeks, you'd be more inclined to use your remaining injury trades to trade out 1-2 week injuries as that's what you've been saving them for!
The extra money from Kerridge makes it worthwhile too. $75k is great loose change to have for LTI trades so you can pick up the best replacement for an injured player after they lose $30-40k on their pricetag due to an injury affected game.

Good to see my fixture analysis is coming in handy haha.