Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Rowsus

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Hi there Rowsus! Love all your analysis, particularly the end of year look at all the players.
You may have commented on this already but do you have any idea why Wines has been so mediocre this year?

Avereaged 100 in 2014 and 97 in an injury hit 2015 - this year he is injury free and averaging... 93. Is the loss of a real ruck at PA killing him? Or is it a change in game style or something else?
Every Power midfielder is down this year. A combination of no ruckman and reduced interchange is hurting them. My 2 cents, hopefully Rowsus has the stats to back it up :) no pressure
Hi there Leroy!
Similar to Jurn Stern, my first thoughts are to compare this years and last years: TOG%, Hitouts, Clearances, Disposals.
Wines TOG% in non-injury games: 2015 - 79%, 2016 - 75%, so he's down around 5% right there. This probably is due to the new interchange rules. He can't have a lot of short rests to get him going again, so he has fewer, but longer rests now.
2015: Hitouts 49.9, Clearances 41.8, Disposals 363.2
2016: Hitouts 31.2, Clearances 37.9, Disposals 361.1
Apart from the not unexpected Hitout count being down, the Clearances and Disposals numbers are about the same. So lets break Wines season down to 100%TOG.
Wines: 2015 73.3% TOG, 2016 74.8% TOG
2015: 16 Ks, 17 H'bs, 33 Disps, 66% Disp Eff, 8 Clears, 17 Cont, 4 Marks, 0.4 Goals, 7 Ta, 126 AF, 133 SC.
2016: 13 Ks, 19 H'bs, 33 Disps, 61% Disp Eff, 7 Clears, 17 Cont, 3 Marks, 0.8 Goals, 8 Ta, 127 AF, 123 SC.
Looking at the numbers, he's only down 8% in SC/100%TOG, and his Dis Eff has dropped, as has his K:H ratio. I think the answer lies right there.
 
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Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus,

Thanks again for your fantastic response re: rucks last week! Lycett still on the watchlist for my side after that discussion.

This week I'm interested in your thoughts on one of his potential centre bounce partners, Yeo! He dominated discussions in preseason and was wondering whether he's in your thoughts at all currently?

Here is a link to the preseason discussion: http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...Of-2015-Season?p=224977&viewfull=1#post224977

Darkie's useful breakdown of his 2015 scoring


His high popularity + the Redden effect had me avoiding him in the preseason, however, I think a few things have changed since.
It seems Redden is slowly falling out of favor due to his very poor form. I wouldn't be surprised if I see him dropped to the WAFL soon.
Also, anyone watching WCE games will see that Yeo has had a role change from his fwd/mid role to a more mid/wing type role. According to Freako, his Centre Bounce Attendances in the last 3 weeks have been 4, 16 and 24 (season high). I'm predicting that continues as Simmo flagged changes to the WCE setup throughout the week and it seems Yeo into the mids was one of those changes.
Another plus for him is that the next 4 of his 6 games are at DS with two away games vs Blues, Pies (potentially winnable) at the MCG. Yeo averaging ~97 at DS this year.
Finally, he has 1.8% ownership in the top 1k (probably around 2-3% this week) despite his 9.4% overall. He's a definite unique in the top 1k, which I like!

I'm hoping he stays in the mids and if he does I think he could average potentially 100+ over the next 6 weeks and maybe 90-95 from here on (considering his tough final 3 against GWS, Haw and Crows). Also encouraged by the second halves of KK, Newnes and Higgins last year as mid pricer picks who had poor starts but great finishes.

My options in R15 are either making a downgrade trade and getting Doch or getting a $395k Yeo to save a trade (maybe one more as I can keep $70k cash in bank for LTIs). Another risky option could be JJ a straight in for R15 (too risky with his injury for mine). I already have Laird and Rance (this week), so for def options under $500k it seems Yeo is the best pick.
What are your thoughts?
Hey B18,
I'm not convinced his last 2 games mean that he has turned some sort of SC corner. Fantasy Freako gives us some great stats, that we don't have access to, which is useful. Sometimes however, they can be a little misleading, unless you delve further into them.

Yeo has attended 40 of the 66 centre bounces in the last 2 games. In 30 of those 66 contests, WC won the clearance, of which Yeo won............ 1 :(

Now, if a player is attending that many centre bounces, and only achieves 1 clearance (he actually achieved 4 Clearances against Brisbane, but 3 were at non-centre bounce stoppages), there is only one of two conclusions that can be drawn. He is either there in a negating role, to try and stop an opposition player, OR, he just sucks at it. Either way, it doesn't inspire much confidence.

Yeo was always going to be up and down in his scoring, and was always going to play a few different roles. He might have turned a corner, and he might have locked down a new, SC-friendly role. He might also have just had a couple of his good games he was always going to have, and the fact that Priddis was affected against Brisbane, and Gaff was still somewhat affected (possibly) from the Jonas hit, might have just added to his good games. If you really need a cheap D6, Yeo might be the way to go. He might also score only 5 or 10 higher than Tippa/Adams from here! I was totally in the same boat as you pre-season. If a player is popular, you want to be confident he will perform well, if you are going to take him. If you are not sure, you are best to leave them out of your team. On what we've seen so far, that was a good call with Yeo. I'm not sure I'd let 2 good games persuade you the other way.


To those of you reading this, that might be struggling to complete your team, and you need to take some compromised, value for money picks, can I say Yeo will likely outscore his $395,500 price tag, but the question is by how much? Another player you might look at, as a huge value M8 (once again, only if you need value picks, to complete your team), is Gaff. Gaff is priced at $354,700, and is very likely to score in the 95-100/game area from here. He averaged 104 last season. Outside of the "Jonas" game, and the 2 games after it, he has averaged around 30 disposals/game, and 92 SC this season. He is well and truly underpriced, but probably not for those completing their teams comfortably.
 
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Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus;

I'm sort of re-treading old ground here, but I'm considering bringing Dustin Martin in as my last FWD upgrade. However, the trades I require a convoluted compared with my other idea...

My team:

15 Trades, $180, 900 banked.

DEF: Shaw, Bartel, Howe, Yeo, McVeigh, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Collins, Tucker

MID: Dangerfield, Ablett, Pendlebury, Rockliff, Selwood, Priddis, Petracca, Trengove, Kerridge, MacPherson

RUC: Goldstein, Martin, Wyatt

FWD: Zorko, Deledio, Hall, Wells, Barlow, Adams, Uebergang, Cox.


These scenarios assume Hall is recalled, and MacPherson and Wyatt do not play.

Trade Scenario 1:

This week:

OUT: McDonald-Tipungwuti, MacPherson, Adams

IN: Rance, Joyce, Montagna.

This will give me 22 on field, and the next week, I should be able to get 18 players by going:

OUT: Collins, Tucker, Petracca

IN: Def Rookie, Phillips?, Hannebery.

Which uses six trades; it relies on Joyce getting another game/Wyatt being picked, as well as another two rookies appearing on the bubble. (I'd prefer a Defence Rookie, but with DPP, I can choose one on any line.)

However, Dustin Martin might just be a better option, but I can't afford him using MacPherson.

My team, post byes, should look like this:

DEF: Shaw, Bartel, Rance, McVeigh, Howe, Yeo, (???, Joyce)

MID: Dangerfield, Hannebery, Pendlebury, Ablett, Selwood, Rockliff, Priddis, Liberatore, (Phillips, Trengove, Kerridge)

RUC: Goldstein, Martin, Wyatt

FWD: Zorko, Montagna, Deledio, Hall, Wells, Barlow, (Uebergang, Cox)


Trade Scenario 2:

OUT: McDonald-Tipungwuti, Petracca, Adams

IN: Rance, Joyce?, Martin.

This gives me 21 players on the field instead of 22, as I will have seven playing forwards, as Priddis, Liberatore, MacPherson and Trengove will all miss in the midfield, and I'll have an extra body on the bench up forward.

Next week is a little harder; I'll need to trade 3 times to get 18 on field, and hope that Joyce keeps his spot.

Before Round 15, I'll have about $141k banked.

OUT: Tucker, Collins, MacPherson (unless he miraculously returns, in which case I do not need to trade, unless there happens to be three excellent rookies). (Assumes that Tucker+Collins =$460k between them)

IN: 3 rookies (assuming a total cost of $372k)

Should leave around $379, 000

I don't really want to trade Collins, because he seems to have good JS, and could be handy at D8 but I can't think of any way to keep him and get 18 on the park in Round 15.

---

Say Hannebery drops to $540k in Round 16, and Cox holds his value @ $260k.

I can then trade Cox - Hannebery (via Phillips?) (assuming my Rucks are available), leaving $99k in the bank. I'll be planning to upgrade someone to Lycett in Round 17; thereby reintroducing my Ruck Cover just after Lycett plays the Kangaroos.

My team should, after the Hannebery trade, look like this:

DEF: Shaw, Bartel, Rance, McVeigh, Howe, Yeo, (???, Joyce)

MID: Dangerfield, Hannebery, Pendlebury, Ablett, Selwood, Rockliff, Priddis, Liberatore, (???, Trengove, Kerridge)

RUC: Goldstein, Martin, Wyatt

FWD: Zorko, Martin, Deledio, Hall, Wells, Barlow, (Uebergang, Phillips)

---

I reckon the second option gives me a stronger team, but at cost of an extra trade (if I've calculated correctly) & I rely on more rookie options coming through. Additionally, if I want Ruck Cover, I'll have to make an additional trade again. Libba @ M8 is probably my weak spot, but I might be able to switch him late in the season.

Do you reckon it's worth the extra effort to get Dustin Martin in over Montagna?
Hey Eagling,
first of all, let me say that while it is nice to have 21 or 22 playing during the byes, there's probably going to be only a small difference from that, and having 20 play.

Looking at how your teams end up:
Option 1
DEF: Shaw, Bartel, Rance, McVeigh, Howe, Yeo, (???, Joyce)

MID: Dangerfield, Hannebery, Pendlebury, Ablett, Selwood, Rockliff, Priddis, Liberatore, (Phillips, Trengove, Kerridge)

RUC: Goldstein, Martin, Wyatt

FWD: Zorko, Montagna, Deledio, Hall, Wells, Barlow, (Uebergang, Cox)

Cox is cover for your Rucks, Kerridge and Cox for your Forwards, Kerridge and Trengove for your Mids, and I'm guessing, you need ??? to have some sort of JS for Def cover, as I'm not sure Joyce will be there when you need him.
All in all, ok, but not great coverage, but very shakey on the Def line.

Option 2
DEF: Shaw, Bartel, Rance, McVeigh, Howe, Yeo, (???, Joyce)

MID: Dangerfield, Hannebery, Pendlebury, Ablett, Selwood, Rockliff, Priddis, Liberatore, (???, Trengove, Kerridge)

RUC: Goldstein, Martin, Wyatt

FWD: Zorko, Martin, Deledio, Hall, Wells, Barlow, (Uebergang, Phillips)

No ruck cover, and unless Phillips has JS, Kerridge is your only Forward cover, and you're relying on ??? in the Mids, and ??? in the Defs for cover, unless Joyce hangs around. You have Trengove covering the Mids as well. It might work out, but it might really bite late in the season too. I'd be more worried about getting donuts later in the season with this set up, than getting one donut next week. Remember, most people might only be scoring 50 points with their 18th player during the byes, so that donut is only a 50 point donut. I wouldn't be risking my plans, or future set up, to avoid a 50 point donut next week.

While it would be nice to have Martin, unless you have a few contingency trades left, I'd go the Montagna option. The difference between Montagna and Martin might be less than the potential donuts you face.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

Thinking ahead to after the byes - I will still need a mid premium and tossing up between the following:

Kerridge (f7) / Neale / FD (f8) or Petracca (f7) / Pendlebury / rookie (f8). The FD choice is because I will need a cheapie if I go that option.

I will already have Phillips at M8/9 to link with Kerridge/Petracca. My thinking is that I'd prefer Kerridge as cover (thinking Petracca will taper off) but to go into finals without Pendles?

Interested in your thoughts Row?
Hi Bones,
so basically it comes down to Kerridge/Neale vs Petracca/Pendlebury?
In that scenario, I'd say Petracca/Pendlebury. I actually prefer to keep Kerridge as coverage to Petracca, but I believe the difference between them probably isn't enough for you to miss Pendlebury in favour of Neale.
If you do need a M/F FD, I'd suggest Greenwood/Beech from Adelaide. Bottom priced, and lots of late games.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.
 

Rowsus

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hi row

my current mids is: danger, ablett, pendels, rocky, kennedy, hannes, priddis, hopper, libba, dunkley, trengrove

fwd line is: wells, martin, montayna, kerridge, hall, menadue, petracca zorko

im looking to upgrade one midfield and one forward. in my midfield i am considering the following:
shiel, ward, neale, and selwood

My forward line i am considering lids and merett. i was wondering what you opinion is regarding the above players? if you had to chose one based on there scoring potential from now who would that player be?

at this stage i am leaning towards neale and lids. richmond seem to have a better draw than the bombers
Hi ad,
if those were my choices, I'd choose Selwood and Merrett.
Selwood is an easy choice, on both form, and history. You'd think opposition teams would have no choice but to try and target Dangerfield more from here on in, which can only help Selwood more.
Merrett is not said with confidence, but I'm really worried about Deledio being targetted by opposition teams. Richmond were 1 win, 4 losses when Deledio missed in 2015, and they are the same in 2016. I also think Deledio might still miss a game or two.
 

Rowsus

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Morning Rowsus or should I say evening.

With the season half way completed and the byes in full swing, I am pondering whether my peg fits into a square or round hole.

My dilemma is whether to keep Petracca as my F7 for the season or trade him down to Phillips/Reid and bring in Currie for Goetz as my cover for the season. I can't have my cake and eat it too unfortunately. The plus is my mids are complete with Libba at M9.

Please help as I have literally reverse traded ten times in the last 24 hours.
Evening _Slip_,
I have no faith in the JS of Phillips/Reid, and Currie might be back to second choice at GC again, though it's too soon to call that one. I'd rather have Forward cover (if you don't have a F8), than Ruck cover. You might be trading yourself into a no cover situation, and burning 2 trades to do it. I currently have Currie R3, and I'm thinking I might possibly have to trade him down to M King, and get Lycett in a F6. I'd really like to get one more game, and a decent price rise out of Currie, before I do that though. Even if Currie plays the next 3 games, that is no promise of good JS. Keep in mind, GC traded out Z Smith, and gorringe, leaving them with only Nicholls as a ruck on their list. That's putting great stock in him, and Currie would be seen as a lesser Investment, that was taken more as back up. If their season looks like being toast, I think they might be more likely to play Nicholls, as he was who they invested their future in, during the pre-season.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus, thanks for last week's advice. You've really put me on the right track.

I think my trades this week are reasonably clean cut, but wanted your professional opinion before I screw things up. There are a number of different variations that I could go with, see below:

View attachment 1499

Team: http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/afl/classic/other_teams/?tid=140872

Thanks again champ.
Go Dempsey to Docherty, Dempsey is in the twilight stage of his career and is only ever going to be a mid 70's averaging player at best.
Not sure if you wanted this to turn into a roundtable but my 2c would be that Docherty is a pretty big risk at his price, and one that only teams very near completion should be considering. Rance and Laird are both great options who are priced fairly and have the bye behind them. I'd be wanting to fill up that backline with premos so I'd go Dempsey, Mills and Petracca to Laird, Rance and Phillips.
The more the merrier Stephen! I like the Laird pick.

I already have Rance. Unfortunately 17k short of picking up Barlow :( unless I go against Philzsay's suggestion and trade Tippa instead of Dempsey ;) perhaps there's a better option. A FWD/MID for <502k?

Considering Greene. As inconsistent as he's been, last two games >100, upcoming teams look alright for GWS and I'm in desperate need of some value picks.

View attachment 1501

Happy to help TG. :)
You'll find that is one of the 3 or 4 things that seperates this site, from other SC sites. Everyone here genuinely wants the other members here to do well, and will help them to do that.


I think this is how your team looks now. 13 Trades left, and about $66.8k in the bank.
As I see it, if you made no trades the next 2 weeks, and Wells doesn't play, you'll have 18 players this week, and 17 players next week.

When you're in a position like yours, where you know you might have to hunt for value, you have to maximise every dollar you can. To that end, I think you should trade out Keays and Hogan before you trade out Mills and Petracca. Their Breakevens suggest, you'll be better off dollar-wise by doing that. For your third trade out, I think you are looking at one of Dempsey/Tippa/Adams. I actually wouldn't choose Dempsey from that group. His average is nearly the same as Tippa's, but his B/E is lower. I'd keep him for this week, and choose out of Adams and Tippa. There's a chance the one you don't pick will be in your final team, so I'd trade out Tippa, and keep Adams.
So, my suggestions for you this week are:
Trade out: Hogan, Tippa, Keays.
Trade in: Laird, Phillips and ........... S Thompson! :eek:

S Thompson is priced at $399,400 (80/game), and is a good chance to average 100/game from here. Adelaide's Draw is friendly, and his history is good.
With Laird and Thompson, if we count Libba as a Keeper, you will have 16 Keepers, and 10 trades left. This is the sort of value, and under priced player you'll need to get near completing your team.

Tippa ---> Laird (costs $125,900)
Keays ---> Thompson S (costs $165,200)
Hogan ---> Phillips (makes $302,300)
Profit $11,200

This makes your player counts 20 this week, and 18 next week, before trades, and depending on selections, of course.
 
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Evening _Slip_,
I have no faith in the JS of Phillips/Reid, and Currie might be back to second choice at GC again, though it's too soon to call that one. I'd rather have Forward cover (if you don't have a F8), than Ruck cover. You might be trading yourself into a no cover situation, and burning 2 trades to do it. I currently have Currie R3, and I'm thinking I might possibly have to trade him down to M King, and get Lycett in a F6. I'd really like to get one more game, and a decent price rise out of Currie, before I do that though. Even if Currie plays the next 3 games, that is no promise of good JS. Keep in mind, GC traded out Z Smith, and gorringe, leaving them with only Nicholls as a ruck on their list. That's putting great stock in him, and Currie would be seen as a lesser Investment, that was taken more as back up. If their season looks like being toast, I think they might be more likely to play Nicholls, as he was who they invested their future in, during the pre-season.
Thanks for prompt feedback Rowsus. I was leaning the same way. I don't think we are going to have a Stef Martin or Gawn pop up this year for the 2nd half of the year.
The one ruck I have my eye on for possible coverage is Big Boy who should drop even further in price this week. If the opportunity presents and he is priced under 300k I might bring him in as cover after the byes as he should average 80 to 90 for the rest of the season and his JS is great.
 
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Hi there Leroy!
Similar to Jurn Stern, my first thoughts are to compare this years and last years: TOG%, Hitouts, Clearances, Disposals.
Wines TOG% in non-injury games: 2015 - 79%, 2016 - 75%, so he's down around 5% right there. This probably is due to the new interchange rules. He can't have a lot of short rests to get him going again, so he has fewer, but longer rests now.
2015: Hitouts 49.9, Clearances 41.8, Disposals 363.2
2016: Hitouts 31.2, Clearances 37.9, Disposals 361.1
Apart from the not unexpected Hitout count being down, the Clearances and Disposals numbers are about the same. So lets break Wines season down to 100%TOG.
Wines: 2015 73.3% TOG, 2016 74.8% TOG
2015: 16 Ks, 17 H'bs, 33 Disps, 66% Disp Eff, 8 Clears, 17 Cont, 4 Marks, 0.4 Goals, 7 Ta, 126 AF, 133 SC.
2016: 13 Ks, 19 H'bs, 33 Disps, 61% Disp Eff, 7 Clears, 17 Cont, 3 Marks, 0.8 Goals, 8 Ta, 127 AF, 123 SC.
Looking at the numbers, he's only down 8% in SC/100%TOG, and his Dis Eff has dropped, as has his K:H ratio. I think the answer lies right there.
Thanks for the analysis Rowsus, always appreciated.

It would seem that his K/HB ratio has gone in the wrong direction as well, which isn't helping, as well as the disposal efficiency and TOG.
 
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Hi Rowan,

Hope things are well for you.

Been a while since I asked you a question so just after some conformation, I'm not sure if my team is linked correctly so here it is.

Current:

Simpson, Boyd, Rance, Rich, DBJ, Collins, (Brand, Ubergang)

Danger, Pendles, Ablett, Selwood, T Mitchell, Shiel, Liberatore, Trengrove (B Kennedy, Keays, Stewart)

Goldy, Gawn, (Wyatt)

Dusty, Zorko, Barlow, Montagna, Lycett, Hall (Petracca, Howard)

10 trades and $298,900 in bank.

My initial thoughts are this

DBJ - Laird
Keays - Phillips
Kennedy - Sloane

Which would give me: With 7 trades and around $40k

Simpson, Boyd, Rance, Rich, Laird, Collins, (Brand, Ubergang)

Danger, Pendles, Ablett, Selwood, T Mitchell, Shiel, Liberatore, Sloane (Trengove, Phillps, Stewart)

Goldy, Gawn, (Wyatt)

Dusty, Zorko, Barlow, Montagna, Lycett, Hall (Petracca, Howard)

The plan at this stage is to keep Petracca as FWD cover for the year given that Howard is now injured and out for the year.

The trades above would give me 19 this week, not counting Brand, but including Stewart and Phillips.

The final DEF spot would be to McVeigh, but I think his price will be too high by the time my other cows have gained enough value.

I guess my question is this, do you think I'm better of doing my final mid upgrade (Liber would nearly have to be M8 for the year) or am I' better of not worrying about MID for now and bringing in a DEF for Kennedy, leaving MID as my final upgrade?

The problem I see is that after trading Kennedy and DBJ it will be a while before I have enough cash to do the final updgrade and if it was the MID position it would need to be a value player like S Mitchell after his bye.

Would love to know your thoughts on the best course of action?

Cheers in advance.
 
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Hey Row,

Got a question regarding my final MID upgrade.

My current midfield as it stands is: Danger, Pendles, GAJ, Selwood, Parker, Priddis, Libba, Trengove (Davis, Jansen, Menadue)

A few notes:
- Last week (via DPP trading) I moved B.Williams (D/M) into DEF and AMT (D/F) up FWD with the plan to move them back.
- I'm also looking at having a final M/F rookie on my bench to give me (Trengove, M/F rookie and B.Williams (D/M)) with the M/F rookie to roll Wells through both lines and Williams to roll any of my D/M premos through the mids should injury strike later in the year.
- Currently have 12 trades left, will be grabbing Lycett at some point (either after Round 14 or 15 - wouldn't mind your thoughts on when to bring him in too) and probably "upgrading" Libba as a bit of a luxury trade when I'm done.
- Looking to bring Lids in this week (even though his injury history has me a little cautious)

Back to my question: I've been on Hanners up until this point due to his outstanding year as my final mid upgrade. However, with Tippett out, I'm just wondering how you think this might effect his output (and Parker's too) and are there any other options you would recommend considering - based on where I'm ranked now going for overall?

Thanks for all your help up to this point mate :)

EDIT (add on):
Thoughts in Libba down to Conca this week (if Libba is going to be upgraded later on anyway). A bit left-field...I know. Solid JS (especially when comapred to potential rookies), decent cover later down the track and M/F (would slot in to my rookie M/F spot outlined above)...thoughts?
 
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Hi Rowan, just a quick one.

I was keen on trading in Enright last week but when NicNat went down went to the rucks instead.

I know the cats have the bye next week but still am somewhat keen on him.

His history is similar to Rance who I don't have and I was wondering if I lose more with Rance as a negative POD than I gain with Enright as a POD.

I Believe that I should be fine for players next week even woith Enrights bye.

This week I was looking at Cox & Dunkley out for Montagna & Matho/Reid but am now seriously looking at the same two out but Enright/Reid in (can't bring in Matho as a mid only if I trade in Enright.

I think this balances my team slightly better going forward, or should I get Montagna this week and look at Enright after the byes are completed.
Team is:

Shaw, Doc, Bartel, Simmo, B Smith, Collins, O McDonald, Brand

Danger, Selwood, Pendles, Gazza, Rocky, JPK, Libba, Pridda, Davis, Dunkley, Trengove

Goldy, Sauce, Grimley

Martin, Wells, Barlow, Buddy, Lycett, Kerridge, Petracca, Cox.

Thanks in advance.
 

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Hi Rowan,

Not a question but more of an observation and appreciation.

It goes without saying that this is one of the greatest gem here on SCS, almost 6,500 posts is testimony to that fact!

Time and time again you surprise, inspire and challenge our thoughts on SC related matters. No question is ever in the 'too hard' bucket, and you ALWAYS provide an option in your response, backed up by well researched stats and trends. You and your thread are the lifeline for many throughout the course of the SC season.

As we're traversing through the MBRs and finalising our team for the final onslaught, I'd like to take this opportunity to again thank you on behalf of all our members for the dedication and attention to detail you have afforded us. We are forever grateful and blessed to have such a phenomenal individual amongst us.
 

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Hey Row,

Got a question regarding my final MID upgrade.

My current midfield as it stands is: Danger, Pendles, GAJ, Selwood, Parker, Priddis, Libba, Trengove (Davis, Jansen, Menadue)

A few notes:
- Last week (via DPP trading) I moved B.Williams (D/M) into DEF and AMT (D/F) up FWD with the plan to move them back.
- I'm also looking at having a final M/F rookie on my bench to give me (Trengove, M/F rookie and B.Williams (D/M)) with the M/F rookie to roll Wells through both lines and Williams to roll any of my D/M premos through the mids should injury strike later in the year.
- Currently have 12 trades left, will be grabbing Lycett at some point (either after Round 14 or 15 - wouldn't mind your thoughts on when to bring him in too) and probably "upgrading" Libba as a bit of a luxury trade when I'm done.
- Looking to bring Lids in this week (even though his injury history has me a little cautious)

Back to my question: I've been on Hanners up until this point due to his outstanding year as my final mid upgrade. However, with Tippett out, I'm just wondering how you think this might effect his output (and Parker's too) and are there any other options you would recommend considering - based on where I'm ranked now going for overall?

Thanks for all your help up to this point mate :)

EDIT (add on):
Thoughts in Libba down to Conca this week (if Libba is going to be upgraded later on anyway). A bit left-field...I know. Solid JS (especially when comapred to potential rookies), decent cover later down the track and M/F (would slot in to my rookie M/F spot outlined above)...thoughts?
Hey mate,

Interesting point about the lack of Tippett affecting the swans mids. Not too sure if we have enough data to make a judgment there. I'd back Hanners though as class is permanent and form is temporary. He was being talked up as being in that elite mid category next to Danger, Pendles & Ablett a few weeks ago. Maybe he might not be that 120 average if the lack of Tippett has some sort of effect but I'd still expect him to be a 115 average from here. At $560k, you can't go wrong I reckon. I paid $620k for him :(
Noticed you were also considering Sloane. Grabbing Sloane this week might get you an extra 40 points on a rookie score. I do like that route. Maybe a Libba to Sloane, Davis to Hanners trade next week seems worthwhile.

Libba to Conca is probably a mistake I feel. His best seasons are only around 80 and he's very injury prone. I think if you wanted a bench cover player you could wait on Dahlhaus or maybe even grab Motlop (or dare I say Hall :p). These fallen premiums are much better options for cover. Conca just gives you potentially a few extra points this week but long term it's not worth it.

Good luck!
 
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Hey mate,

Interesting point about the lack of Tippett affecting the swans mids. Not too sure if we have enough data to make a judgment there. I'd back Hanners though as class is permanent and form is temporary. He was being talked up as being in that elite mid category next to Danger, Pendles & Ablett a few weeks ago. Maybe he might not be that 120 average if the lack of Tippett has some sort of effect but I'd still expect him to be a 115 average from here. At $560k, you can't go wrong I reckon. I paid $620k for him :(
Noticed you were also considering Sloane. Grabbing Sloane this week might get you an extra 40 points on a rookie score. I do like that route. Maybe a Libba to Sloane, Davis to Hanners trade next week seems worthwhile.

Libba to Conca is probably a mistake I feel. His best seasons are only around 80 and he's very injury prone. I think if you wanted a bench cover player you could wait on Dahlhaus or maybe even grab Motlop (or dare I say Hall :p). These fallen premiums are much better options for cover. Conca just gives you potentially a few extra points this week but long term it's not worth it.

Good luck!
Thanks mate :)

Reckon it would be worth maybe going Sloane this week, Lids the following and Hanners after Round 15 to finish up and maybe get the last 2 at their lowest prices?

Hadn't thought about Motlop...food for thought :) I just liked Conca's draw over the back end of the season...although Geelong's is pretty fairy floss too...
 
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Thanks mate :)

Reckon it would be worth maybe going Sloane this week, Lids the following and Hanners after Round 15 to finish up and maybe get the last 2 at their lowest prices?

Hadn't thought about Motlop...food for thought :) I just liked Conca's draw over the back end of the season...although Geelong's is pretty fairy floss too...
Tell a man your POD, and this is what he does to you :p
 

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Thanks mate :)

Reckon it would be worth maybe going Sloane this week, Lids the following and Hanners after Round 15 to finish up and maybe get the last 2 at their lowest prices?

Hadn't thought about Motlop...food for thought :) I just liked Conca's draw over the back end of the season...although Geelong's is pretty fairy floss too...
Does sound good. I'm feeling a bit silly for overlooking Sloane now. Wishing I had him in my M8 spot over R.Gray (really regretting that one!).
Do you have a lack of cash to afford both Sloane & Lids this week and Hanners in R15? I think points on field to finish your side is more important than cash at this stage if you can afford it. Might cost you $20-30k but earn you points over rookies this week and the next.
 
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Hey Eagling,
first of all, let me say that while it is nice to have 21 or 22 playing during the byes, there's probably going to be only a small difference from that, and having 20 play.

Looking at how your teams end up:
Option 1
DEF: Shaw, Bartel, Rance, McVeigh, Howe, Yeo, (???, Joyce)

MID: Dangerfield, Hannebery, Pendlebury, Ablett, Selwood, Rockliff, Priddis, Liberatore, (Phillips, Trengove, Kerridge)

RUC: Goldstein, Martin, Wyatt

FWD: Zorko, Montagna, Deledio, Hall, Wells, Barlow, (Uebergang, Cox)

Cox is cover for your Rucks, Kerridge and Cox for your Forwards, Kerridge and Trengove for your Mids, and I'm guessing, you need ??? to have some sort of JS for Def cover, as I'm not sure Joyce will be there when you need him.
All in all, ok, but not great coverage, but very shakey on the Def line.

Option 2
DEF: Shaw, Bartel, Rance, McVeigh, Howe, Yeo, (???, Joyce)

MID: Dangerfield, Hannebery, Pendlebury, Ablett, Selwood, Rockliff, Priddis, Liberatore, (???, Trengove, Kerridge)

RUC: Goldstein, Martin, Wyatt

FWD: Zorko, Martin, Deledio, Hall, Wells, Barlow, (Uebergang, Phillips)

No ruck cover, and unless Phillips has JS, Kerridge is your only Forward cover, and you're relying on ??? in the Mids, and ??? in the Defs for cover, unless Joyce hangs around. You have Trengove covering the Mids as well. It might work out, but it might really bite late in the season too. I'd be more worried about getting donuts later in the season with this set up, than getting one donut next week. Remember, most people might only be scoring 50 points with their 18th player during the byes, so that donut is only a 50 point donut. I wouldn't be risking my plans, or future set up, to avoid a 50 point donut next week.

While it would be nice to have Martin, unless you have a few contingency trades left, I'd go the Montagna option. The difference between Montagna and Martin might be less than the potential donuts you face.
The DEF line is shaky in both prospects. The only options I see is either keeping Collins, or Adams/McDonald-Tipungwuti. The Problem of keeping Collins is not having 18 players in Round 15. The problem with keep Adams/McDonald-Tipungwuti is that I'll be keeping reasonable cover, but my upgrading will be delayed. I was planning on having seven trades after Round 17 - things might happen to change that, but I was hoping that would be enough to cover any contingencies.

As you say, it is the cover that concerns me. I was hoping that Uebergang might get some games, but now he's out for a decent amount of time. I'm planning to bring Lycett in after the second option for an undetermined trade-out. I reckon that coverage of Trengove, Kerridge and Lycett over the MID/FWD/RUC lines would be pretty good.

I am concerned about the JS of rookies, but I can't see any alternatives other then gambling on their JS if I don't want my team to stagnate.

Right now, my M11 is MacPherson. He's doing nothing for me. If I trade him for someone playing in Round 15, I get a bit of cash and improve my long term prospects. Even if the trade in has shaky JS, unless he suffers an LTI; and especially if he's a DPP, he'll still be a better option than MacPherson.

I can't really see a way to have my cake and eat it too - IE: Upgrading quickly and keeping good cover on the defence bench.
 
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Does sound good. I'm feeling a bit silly for overlooking Sloane now. Wishing I had him in my M8 spot over R.Gray (really regretting that one!).
Do you have a lack of cash to afford both Sloane & Lids this week and Hanners in R15? I think points on field to finish your side is more important than cash at this stage if you can afford it. Might cost you $20-30k but earn you points over rookies this week and the next.
To do that I'd have to bring in a rookie (e.g. Reid) for Libba and upgrade both Petracca and Davis. This would mean that I probably wouldn't have enough to get Hanners next week as my current rookies left over would not have fattened enough (only AMT, but would like to keep him if I can - going on the plan :p)...Hanners also has the Dogs and Cats after his buy...so might be worth waiting a week on him and staggering Sloane and Lids...?
 
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