Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus could i get your thoughts on Duncan?
I've always been very interested in him and i'm actually a bit surprised as to the change in his stats compared to previous years. Most notably, his kick to handball ratio has completely changed and still averaging the same despite fewer possies, goals/game, tackles/game.

Do you reckon he's actually a valid pick (planning dusty for him) or am i trying too hard to force a POD?

Hey Steuby,
priced at 110, and scored at 109 for the past season and a half. In general has a good onfield record, and you'd think out of him Ablett, Dangerfield and Selwood he's more likely than some of those to not miss another game this season.
Not the worst pick, even though he doesn't represent value. Dusty at a big crossroad, as we assume we don't see him again until Round 15, so Dusty to Duncan has some merit, potentially. Dusty might come back the 2017 Dusty, or he might comeback the 100-105 Dusty. In some ways, trading Dusty out now is a safer option, than waiting to find out!

 

[Darkie]

Hi Darkie,
the Bont is coming into my team, probably this week, in preparation for next week. Next it's a toss up between Treloar and Oliver, but I have a slight leaning to Treloar. I keep thinking Oliver is so young and inexperienced, that he has to show some signs of jading from the past 2 seasons, at some point. I do concede it may not happen though.
From a pure points point of view, plus the bonus of the flexibility he offers, I'd go TMac, though he is slightly overpriced, compared to how he will probably score.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way(s).

Thanks very much Row, this is helpful. I will do some more digging on Bont and TMac in particular. I recently realised I may not have been giving them adequate consideration, and they may both be pretty reliable picks to at least get on the park, and hopefully score very strongly if they can keep up their recent form and roles.

I see your services are in demand this week, appreciate you taking the time.

 

[Darkie]

You'd think a popular carnage week like this, would play right up my alley! I don't have Fyfe or Laird, but I do have all the other problems.

I think that’s a pretty good leg up of itself - both are hard to replace as high scorers in their positions - and the carnage means a lot of people will struggle to field 18, especially without doing compromised or risky trades to do so. You may get some advantage this week, and more in the weeks to come

 

[KellyMartinToNorth2018]

Hi Rowsus,

Which round 13 bye mid do u think will average the most?

Looking for a POD, currently considering Oliver, Kelly, Beams the most. Thanks

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Which round 13 bye mid do u think will average the most?

Looking for a POD, currently considering Oliver, Kelly, Beams the most. Thanks

Hi KMTN2018Pro,
If you're looking for a POD, I'd be going more to Treloar (7%). I like Collingwood's Draw, too.
I think Kelly might potentially out average Oliver, but if the wheels fall off GWS' season, and Kelly has any sort of niggle, I can see GWS ending his season early, therefore Oliver might PIT65 higher than Kelly.

So to answer your question:
Average: Treloar, Kelly, Oliver
PIT65: Treloar, Oliver, Kelly.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Hi Darkie,
the Bont is coming into my team, probably this week, in preparation for next week. Next it's a toss up between Treloar and Oliver, but I have a slight leaning to Treloar. I keep thinking Oliver is so young and inexperienced, that he has to show some signs of jading from the past 2 seasons, at some point. I do concede it may not happen though.
From a pure points point of view, plus the bonus of the flexibility he offers, I'd go TMac, though he is slightly overpriced, compared to how he will probably score.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way(s).

What's the thinking here Rowsus on Bont?

Feels like he may be more like Fyfe in the transition year who also use to score well in 2H games in tight contests (Bont last year) then gradually had a year where he started to post decent scores (Bont this year) in varying games and then hit his brownlow year.

Beside Pies game Bont has looked serviceable, heat map shows both mid and forward time by the looks of it, although this is where he is getting possessions, not spending time.

 

[Rowsus]

What's the thinking here Rowsus on Bont?

Feels like he may be more like Fyfe in the transition year who also use to score well in 2H games in tight contests (Bont last year) then gradually had a year where he started to post decent scores (Bont this year) in varying games and then hit his brownlow year.

Beside Pies game Bont has looked serviceable, heat map shows both mid and forward time by the looks of it, although this is where he is getting possessions, not spending time.

Hi GFB,
it's a combination of things, really.
I'm expecting Macrae to come back to the field, as it seems just so unlikely he can keep going at this pace. The Bont is good in form, having had 4 x 120+'s in his last 5 games, but his price doesn't reflect that, due to that 79 and 47 in his score line. If Macrae does comeback to 105-110, then someone will pick up those points, and it seems the Bont might be the best candidate.
You are right about his Forward time. He is spending some time at Full Forward each game, sort of a Dangerfield type model!

 

[benocho]

Do you reckon Hurn is a viable trade in option for next week Rowsus? Tossing up between him, Westhoff and Boak (via Sicily)

 

[Rowsus]

Do you reckon Hurn is a viable trade in option for next week Rowsus? Tossing up between him, Westhoff and Boak (via Sicily)

I reckon Hurn's one of those players, that always looks like it might be the year he makes SC relevance, but he never quite gets there.
This year might be the year, but maybe only for those started him. Look at it this way:

2018 he is 11/100.5

In 2011 he had a stretch where he went 7/104.0, but his other 15 games were 15/72.1
In 2012 he had a stretch where he went 8/102.1, but his other 14 games were 14/85.2
In 2013 he had a stretch where he went 5/108.8, but his other 7 games were 7/72.3
In 2014 he had a stretch where he went 7/103.0, but his other 11 games were 11/76.7
In 2015 he only had one 3 game stretch that averaged over 100
In 2016 he had a stretch where he went 9/97.5, but his other 16 games went 16/76.8
In 2017 he had a stretch where he went 7/110.1, but his other 14 games went 14/77.6

Looking at those numbers, he consistently has a patch where he averages say 105 each season, but then averages 75-80 for the rest of the season.
At some point in time, in each of the last 7 seasons, he has looked like a Def you wanted. He's only had one 90+ season in that time, a 91.4!
He finished last season in amazing form, that's where his 7/110.1 streak was, but consider this:
In the 6 seasons from 2011 to 2016, his average and game count after Round 13 reads 49/81.5 with only eleven 100+ games in those 49 games.
He's 31, only ever had 2 seasons above 90 (93.4 & 91.4), and his best ever season was 10 years ago.

There's just too much history against him, to be jumping on now.

 

[benocho]

Cheers Rowsus, might steer clear!

 

[Pieman17]

Hey Rowsus,

Just wanted to get your thoughts on trading Gawn to Nic Nat or Kruezer next week.

I have Gawn pegged at 120 for the year, so would his average have to be around 110 from here on in order to match come years end which I think Nic Nat or Kreuzer could match and the extra game plus cash would make the trade worth while.

If you think the trade is worthwhile, who do you think out of Kruezer or Nic nat is a better option ?

Thanks in advance

 

[freowho]

Hey Rowsus,

Just wanted to get your thoughts on trading Gawn to Nic Nat or Kruezer next week.

I have Gawn pegged at 120 for the year, so would his average have to be around 110 from here on in order to match come years end which I think Nic Nat or Kreuzer could match and the extra game plus cash would make the trade worth while.

If you think the trade is worthwhile, who do you think out of Kruezer or Nic nat is a better option ?

Thanks in advance

Can I please expand this question if it's not too much trouble. I traded Gawn to McKernan a couple of weeks ago. Should I pick up Ryder, Nic Nat or Kreuzer this week or wait for Grundy or Gawn with a price drop after their bye? I assume being able to field 18 this week would change the equation.

Hilsen.

 

[Adrenaline]

row you are two from two at the moment. i loved the buddy suggestion and brought him in my side but failed to captain him.

i am not sure if i will trade in a defender or midfielder this week. it all depends if laird gets up this week.

who do you think it is best to bring in out of:
1. hurn vs simo
2. treloar, josh kelly, or gaff

thanks for all your help

 

[MC's Mix]

Hey Row,

I have so many questions, would love to hear your thoughts! Currently Just inside the top 10k, my goal as always is to finish as high overall as possible. Obviously no chance of winning now, though am only about 500 points behind top 1000, which would be nice.

1. Thoughts on Dahlhaus? Haven't heard anyone mention him, perhaps for good reason. My thoughts though are that he has averaged in excess of 90 for a long time. Did his role change significantly mid-way through last season or could he be due for a few 100s to boost his average this season?

2. Do I have to go aggressive and trade out both of Hibberd and Petracca? Both have bottomed out and neither will play this week. My other valuable trade assets this week could include D Smith, ZGL, Spargo, Holman etc. I have 240k cash and am currently planning to bring in Sicily and JJK at least. Without trading I am realistically looking at 16 on field, 17 if by some miracle Barry gets a game...

My team is a shambles, mainly due to failed premium picks and unfortunate injuries...
11 trades and 240k left.

Def keepers: Laird, Howe, Lloyd, Sicily (in this week) and possibly Hibberd as a compromised keeper.
Mid keepers: Fyfe, Mitchell, Treloar, Danger, Cripps, Bont, Coniglio, Rockliff (hopefully a luxury upgrade)
Rucks: Gawn, Goldstein
Forwards: Heeney, McLean, Menegola, Gray, Smith (?), JJK (in this week) and possibly Petracca, though think I need to trade.

Plan was always to trade aggressively through the byes and hang on with 5-6 trades and a full team. Not sure if that's possible now.
Any help or advice would be much appreciated. Cheers

 

[Eagling]

Hey Rowsus. Would you consider trading Gawn to one of Kreuzer/Ryder/Witts a worthwhile trade?

 

[Bermi]

Hi Rowsus,
time to put your Wilbur Post hat on again, as I have some questions going straight to the source.

I'm talking League. To save a trade, do you think Fritsch or Petracca could be a reasonable F6?
Also, if you had to pick one to keep in the team for the rest of the season, who would you pick?
F/M Petracca $382,400 Avg 77 BE 71 (I have F/M Ahern on the bench in the Midfield).
MID Fritsch $416,200 Avg 78 BE 56 (Note: Fritsch's avg has improved with his new role).
Is Petracca still a possible breakout candidate?

In the soccer world cup, when Denmark plays Australia, what cap will you be wearing?

 

[anfa18]

Hey Rowsus. Would you consider trading Gawn to one of Kreuzer/Ryder/Witts a worthwhile trade?

To expand on this, how about Gawn to Nic Nat?

- Nic Nat has been eased back by only playing 50-65% TOG and in 6 of those 10 games he still scored 100+. His last 3 games have been promising with him averaging 118, could we see him come back after the bye and continue that form, or do even better with more TOG?

 

[Slammer]

Can I please expand this question if it's not too much trouble. I traded Gawn to McKernan a couple of weeks ago. Should I pick up Ryder, Nic Nat or Kreuzer this week or wait for Grundy or Gawn with a price drop after their bye? I assume being able to field 18 this week would change the equation.

Hilsen.

Hey Rowsus. Would you consider trading Gawn to one of Kreuzer/Ryder/Witts a worthwhile trade?

To expand on this, how about Gawn to Nic Nat?

- Nic Nat has been eased back by only playing 50-65% TOG and in 6 of those 10 games he still scored 100+. His last 3 games have been promising with him averaging 118, could we see him come back after the bye and continue that form, or do even better with more TOG?

I am also contemplating trading Gawn however all of the above forementioned all have a history of injuries.
I have Nic Nat but heard Simmo say they had planned to rest him at some stage. Obviously, the bye last week but I reckon once they have top four or if possible top two they will rest him again before the finals.
Kreuzer has continued to battle injuries so although he could score well I think Carlton may throw him in cotton wool early with nothing to play for.
I am leaning towards Ryder but watching him have to manage his Achilles during the game is a concern and now I am having second thoughts.
So I may just hold Gawn but interested to hear your thoughts Rows.
I am guessing though if you can use the cash effectively elsewhere eg. Upgrade another Rookie to a premium and you have the trades it could be worth the risk

I am contemplating Holman, Gawn, Guelfi to Ryder, Buddy and Martin (back in)

 

[Prochard]

hellloo, i was wondering what's the attraction of bont as a pick that you have thought of? I have my own reasons for wanting to trade him in but not sure if they are valid or not

 

[Nathan]

My advice would be for everyone to trade out Gawn