Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[siwel]

Hi siwel,
it looks ok, but obviously there has been at least one big change since you posted.
Do you stick with Macrae?!
Apart from that game changer, the only thing i'd say is, you seem to be getting one or two too many deadwood's on your bench. I know you have trades to cover outs, but I'd prefer to have cover built in, than rely on trades.
Other than those 2 observations, it all looks ok.

How I wish I did!! I’m up to 78 overall and that move would have been perfect. I had it done in my trade Centre as well just didn’t pull the trigger

 

[Prochard]

Hello Rowsus, what are your thoughts on Angus Brayshaw?

Still going to have significant role fluctuations or could he possibly just settle on a midfield role?

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi rowsus
I need a couple of defenders to trade out austin and savage. my options are:
1. tmac and hurley
2. simo and hurley or crisp or hurn or h andrews

i was also wondering where you rank the following players for total points for the remainder of the season
- hurn
- hurley
- andrews
- crisp

Thanks in advance

 

[Deeman1]

Hi Rowan,

Trust all is well.

I would love to get your thoughts on my trades this week. I've had a good run lately, having improved ranking from 7k after round 11 to 1.5k after round 13, mainly through a bit of luck, reasonable planning and some aggressive planning.

Current team (9 trades left, 34k in bank)

Laird, Lloyd, Shaw, Simpson, Sicily, Austin (Cole, Murphy)
Oliver, Fyfe, Martin, Gaff, Merrett, Cripps, Mitchell, Rockliff (Brayshaw, Banfield, Spargo)
Naitanui, Martin (Olango)
Heeney, Gray, Westhoff, Smith D, Lambert, Petracca (Smith T, Keefe)

Banfield to Ahern (is pretty much locked) leaving 8 trades and $228,000.

In an ideal world I would also bring in Yeo this week, but obviously Austin/Cole gives me $499,400 or $513,900 which is clearly not enough to get Yeo in 2 trades .

My question is can you see any other means to get Yeo in 2 trades and alternatively is it worth with 9 trades left before any this week double downgrading say Banfield and Murphy to Ahern and Redman/Smith to get the addtional funds to get up to Yeo. Do you think the safer play is to take Hurley/Hurn/Crisp whom I can get in 2 trades and leave 7 remaining or go all out to get Yeo.

Added to my prefrence not to use 3 trades this week is that I don't have Danger and am also running questionable FWD's in Lambert and Petracca and Shaw in DEF.

Would love to know your thought as to the best way forward.

Cheers,

Ash

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Any thoughts on Wines as a selection on the run home? He's posted two big scores but historically only averaged around the 100 region. This is the most 140+ scores he's posted in a year so far too, so he might have a better ceiling. Although it feels like he's already established a scoring pattern, he's still only 23. Do you think he could push into that 105-110 bracket this season? Or is Zerrett a better bet?

Cheers
B18

Hi B18,

to be honest, I don't think we should be too carried away by 2 good, consecutive scores. 4 years of 97-100 averages, and before those 2 games, he was averaging 94 this season. I wouldn't be banking on him turning some sort of career corner, on the back of 2 good scores!

I don't have great confidence in Zerrett, but I think at the slightly lower price, he is a good chance to outscore Wines from here, anyway.

 

[Rowsus]

Hello Rowsus, what are your thoughts on Angus Brayshaw?

Still going to have significant role fluctuations or could he possibly just settle on a midfield role?

Hello Pro,
I think he's priced to about what he'll score, which is lower than what someone in your lofty position requires!

 

[jaca]

Hi mate, we’re in the same hemisphere at the moment!

I am consider Trading Nank to Ryder this week. Nank is a decent but not a top tier Ruck. I cannot get to Grundy, who is up there with Gawn (my other ruck). Ryder’s score this week plus his (in my opinion) score premium over Nank could be worth a few 100 pts by seasons end.

What do you think?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi rowsus
I need a couple of defenders to trade out austin and savage. my options are:
1. tmac and hurley
2. simo and hurley or crisp or hurn or h andrews

i was also wondering where you rank the following players for total points for the remainder of the season
- hurn
- hurley
- andrews
- crisp

Thanks in advance

I reckon Hurn's one of those players, that always looks like it might be the year he makes SC relevance, but he never quite gets there.
This year might be the year, but maybe only for those started him. Look at it this way:

2018 he is 11/100.5

In 2011 he had a stretch where he went 7/104.0, but his other 15 games were 15/72.1
In 2012 he had a stretch where he went 8/102.1, but his other 14 games were 14/85.2
In 2013 he had a stretch where he went 5/108.8, but his other 7 games were 7/72.3
In 2014 he had a stretch where he went 7/103.0, but his other 11 games were 11/76.7
In 2015 he only had one 3 game stretch that averaged over 100
In 2016 he had a stretch where he went 9/97.5, but his other 16 games went 16/76.8
In 2017 he had a stretch where he went 7/110.1, but his other 14 games went 14/77.6

Looking at those numbers, he consistently has a patch where he averages say 105 each season, but then averages 75-80 for the rest of the season.
At some point in time, in each of the last 7 seasons, he has looked like a Def you wanted. He's only had one 90+ season in that time, a 91.4!
He finished last season in amazing form, that's where his 7/110.1 streak was, but consider this:
In the 6 seasons from 2011 to 2016, his average and game count after Round 13 reads 49/81.5 with only eleven 100+ games in those 49 games.
He's 31, only ever had 2 seasons above 90 (93.4 & 91.4), and his best ever season was 10 years ago.

There's just too much history against him, to be jumping on now.

Hi Ad,
I know you saw the Hurn post last week, I'm just adding it in again, for those following along.
I don't like Hurn at all, and I'm placing him last on your list of players.
TMac is overpriced, for what he'll likely produce, so I'd be wary of spending that much on him.
Hurley has been playing more accountably lately. Good for Essendon, bad for SC!
That leaves us Simo/Crisp or Simo/Andrews.
I favour Simo/Crisp. Crisp is playing more Midfield, and while Andrews has been a revelation, I'd prefer to back in someone with a Midfield role, than a KP player.
Good luck, whichever way you jump.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowan,

Trust all is well.

I would love to get your thoughts on my trades this week. I've had a good run lately, having improved ranking from 7k after round 11 to 1.5k after round 13, mainly through a bit of luck, reasonable planning and some aggressive planning.

Current team (9 trades left, 34k in bank)

Laird, Lloyd, Shaw, Simpson, Sicily, Austin (Cole, Murphy)
Oliver, Fyfe, Martin, Gaff, Merrett, Cripps, Mitchell, Rockliff (Brayshaw, Banfield, Spargo)
Naitanui, Martin (Olango)
Heeney, Gray, Westhoff, Smith D, Lambert, Petracca (Smith T, Keefe)

Banfield to Ahern (is pretty much locked) leaving 8 trades and $228,000.

In an ideal world I would also bring in Yeo this week, but obviously Austin/Cole gives me $499,400 or $513,900 which is clearly not enough to get Yeo in 2 trades .

My question is can you see any other means to get Yeo in 2 trades and alternatively is it worth with 9 trades left before any this week double downgrading say Banfield and Murphy to Ahern and Redman/Smith to get the addtional funds to get up to Yeo. Do you think the safer play is to take Hurley/Hurn/Crisp whom I can get in 2 trades and leave 7 remaining or go all out to get Yeo.

Added to my prefrence not to use 3 trades this week is that I don't have Danger and am also running questionable FWD's in Lambert and Petracca and Shaw in DEF.

Would love to know your thought as to the best way forward.

Cheers,

Ash

Hi Ash,
I'm well, and I hope you are too!
As I see it, you have 3 paths to choose from.
1) Banfield/Cole to Ahern/Crisp

2) Lambert/Austin to Ahern/Yeo (leaving you $51,500) giving you two extra on the field this week.

3) Petracca/Austin to Ahern/Yeo (leaving you $42,200) giving you one extra on the field this week.

With your goal of only wanting to use 2 trades this week, I think you need to weigh up how much you think Yeo outscores Crisp. If it's not significant ie 10+/Round, I think I'd go option 1. If it is higher than 10, I think i'd go option 3.

I think it will be less than 10, so I'm leaning to option 1.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi mate, we’re in the same hemisphere at the moment!

I am consider Trading Nank to Ryder this week. Nank is a decent but not a top tier Ruck. I cannot get to Grundy, who is up there with Gawn (my other ruck). Ryder’s score this week plus his (in my opinion) score premium over Nank could be worth a few 100 pts by seasons end.

What do you think?

Hi jaca,
welcome back to the North. I hope you have a great time while you are here!
Ryder to Nank costs 1 trade, and just over $40,000, and if Ryder stays fit, gives you a slingshot.
At what you are paying, you probably need to get at least 170-190 points from it, before you call it breakeven, and more for a win.
Let's use a random 100 as Ryder's score from here.
Ryder has 10 games left, giving him 10 x 100 = 1,000 points.
So you need Nank to fall below 1,000 - 180 = 820 / 9 = 91/game to call it a win, unless Ryder goes higher. Coincindentally, that's roughly what Nanks 5 Round average is sitting at.
Given the prospect of Ryder breaking down seemingly being more likely than Nank breaking down, this one is sitting right on the edge of being a coin flip. What is in your favour is, Nank fell away a little late in the season, where as Ryder did ok. As far as Ruck Draws go, I actually slightly prefer Nank's over Ryders for the remainder of the season.
It's tough, and in general, I don't think you should pull a move like this, unless you are confident in it, or have enough trades left to say "Nup, got that one wrong, I'm going to correct it". Depending on your season goal and set up, that would be about 9 trades left, possibly 8.

On face value, I say really close call, but don't do it.

 

[jaca]

Thank you, i do agree the extra trade might prove more useful down the track.

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Hi Row, great score from you last week so congrats on the rise in ranking!

I have one last midfield spot to fill and my targets this week are Cripps, Treloar & Kelly.

Moving forward, who do you think scores the most? Alternatively, do you think Rocky as M8 is viable long term or is that short selling myself?

Thanks!

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi Ad,
I know you saw the Hurn post last week, I'm just adding it in again, for those following along.
I don't like Hurn at all, and I'm placing him last on your list of players.
TMac is overpriced, for what he'll likely produce, so I'd be wary of spending that much on him.
Hurley has been playing more accountably lately. Good for Essendon, bad for SC!
That leaves us Simo/Crisp or Simo/Andrews.
I favour Simo/Crisp. Crisp is playing more Midfield, and while Andrews has been a revelation, I'd prefer to back in someone with a Midfield role, than a KP player.
Good luck, whichever way you jump.

thanks row for your response and all your help throughout the year.

in terms of hurley playing more accountable role, i assume you think his avg will reduce. do you think he reduces to 95 avg or less? i am hoping to have 5 trades going into finals. if i bring in andrews or crisp then it reduces the amount of trades that i will have for the remainder of the season. i agree that hurley is not the most attractive buy and if you feel that he is going to avg 85-90 from here on then i will have to trade to someone like crisp

 

[Slammer]

Hi Rows,

The injury is killing me again.
Do I get rid of JKennedy?
Only 9 trades with effectively still two mids required and Frisch as F6 and Rocky at M8.
Can swing TMac and keep Doedee at D6 for after bye if need be.
Was looking at EPhillips to JSmith to open up dm link with Seedsman
Then upgrading Holman or Brayshaw or even Spargo
After Phillips trade I would have $197K.
Would love a Oliver or Treloar but the Kennedy issue is a worry.
With only 9 trades I am thinking I must hold if my mids are not finished yet

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Row, great score from you last week so congrats on the rise in ranking!

I have one last midfield spot to fill and my targets this week are Cripps, Treloar & Kelly.

Moving forward, who do you think scores the most? Alternatively, do you think Rocky as M8 is viable long term or is that short selling myself?

Thanks!

Hi MMM,
thanks for that. If there were byes 23 weeks of the year, I might be a shot at the big one! It's the only time I shine!
I think they're all potentially good picks. I just have a sneaky suspiscion Kelly might still miss a game or two.
My order is:
On points: Treloar, Cripps, Kelly
On averages: Kelly, Treloar, Cripps.
I have Rocky at M9 (from this week), and I'm much happier having him there, than M8, though he might prove me wrong. I like loopholing him from there, though.

 

[Rowsus]

thanks row for your response and all your help throughout the year.

in terms of hurley playing more accountable role, i assume you think his avg will reduce. do you think he reduces to 95 avg or less? i am hoping to have 5 trades going into finals. if i bring in andrews or crisp then it reduces the amount of trades that i will have for the remainder of the season. i agree that hurley is not the most attractive buy and if you feel that he is going to avg 85-90 from here on then i will have to trade to someone like crisp

Always happy to help, Ad.
If Hurley stays in his more accountable role, I can see him slipping to Mid to high 80's, or maybe low 90's. We're all only guessing if he does stay in that role though.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rows,

The injury is killing me again.
Do I get rid of JKennedy?
Only 9 trades with effectively still two mids required and Frisch as F6 and Rocky at M8.
Can swing TMac and keep Doedee at D6 for after bye if need be.
Was looking at EPhillips to JSmith to open up dm link with Seedsman
Then upgrading Holman or Brayshaw or even Spargo
After Phillips trade I would have $197K.
Would love a Oliver or Treloar but the Kennedy issue is a worry.
With only 9 trades I am thinking I must hold if my mids are not finished yet

Hi Slam,
firstly on JSmith Seedsman link. I wouldn't be getting JSmith if the large part of the reason, is to link Seedsman. It's not a link that is going to be that useful, in most circumstances. To be useful, it assumes one of them is missing, and the other is needed on the opposite line. That means your cover was pretty useless on one or both of the Mid and Def lines. If you like JSmith, then have at it, but don't do it with creating a link being a big part of the reason.
"Only" 9 trades ........... "Only"?!
Seriously, you are giggling for trades compared to some, me included!
If it was me, I'd be fixing Kennedy this week. All the way up, or all the way down. I don't see much value in holding him.

 

[steeveey_86]

Hi Rowsus, would appreciate your thoughts on my F6. Weighing up between bringing in Sicily or Westhoff.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, would appreciate your thoughts on my F6. Weighing up between bringing in Sicily or Westhoff.

Hi steeveey,
Given Haw Draw, and the fact that Sicily is still establishing his scoring patterns, while Westhoff's are well set, I'll say Sicily, easily!

 

[Prochard]

Hey Rowsus,

Was just wondering which M/F donuts have the best looping draw (plays late)? Strong preference is given to looping port players, although it may be a bit difficult with port playing late. Regardless, what are my best options? Just having a quick glance brett daniels from gws seems alright