A look at a few Roughies for the weekend.
Caulfield R4 - 4 Fuhryk. $71 into $51 already, still worth jumping on anything above $26, probably a realistic $12-$16 chance.
2 for 2 3rd up, and is 3rd up. Racing at her best distance 5 from 12 at 1200. Has won at this level (Gp3) twice, and ran 2nd in a Gp1 behind Viddora in the last 12 months. Viddora would be a short priced fav. in this. Has won at Caulfield twice. Best weighted horse in the race, on the SWP scale. Would meet all of these at least 1.5kg worse in a H'cap.
Caulfield R7 - 13 Kingsguard. $41
I guess you need not say much more, than he beat home Youngstar last start, then it ran 2nd Winx at Flemington. If Kingsguard won at $41, and you said to yourself "***?", then looked up it's form, you'd be likely to say "ohhhhh, right. Geez, I could have backed that." In that same race, Noire won, beating Kingsguard by 0.3L. Noire was $3.40 and Kingsguard was $8, now they are $12 and $41, with Kingsguard meeting Noire 0.5kg better for the experience. In addition, Kingsguard has drawn well, and will race in the first 4, while Noire will get back from barrier 2, and might need luck.
Caulfield R9 - 14 Saccharo. $35
A race with a bit of a history for upsets. Last start was backed from $26 into $14, before running 2nd to Amphitrite beaten 0.4L, and giving her 2kg. Amphitrite has been flying, and has won easily since (and could win Race 6 at Caulfield). Seems to be "on the up", and has a good formline.
Randwick R4 - 11 Willi Willi. $27, but I'm hoping/expecting to get longer on the day.
1 from 2 3rd up, and 4 from 7 3rd up and beyond. 4-2-1-0 in the wet. Won 3 from 4 when 3rd up and beyond, and carrying 55.5kg or less. Was 3 and 4 wide, without cover, the whole way last time, so probably did well to still finish 8.5L from them anyway. He was 2nd up there, and usually needs at least 2 runs to find his form.
Randwick R5 - 10 Fuel. $51 + 11 O' So Hazy $51
Fuel is 3 from 5 on wet tracks, and has never been beaten more than 2.5L on a wet track. It will be a Slow track here. Will be racing in the first 2 (probably), and that could be an advantage here. Beaten 2.6L behind the fav. Victorem back in Feb. at level weights. Definitely over the odds.
O' So Hazy has a 15-5-3-3 record, and is 2-2-0-0 in the wet. Prefers bigger fields, with 4 of her 5 wins coming in fields of 11 or more. Ran 2.7L behind Victorem when 3rd earlier the year. Gets Brooke Sweeney back to ride, and that's the jockey with the best record on her, with a 8-4-1-1 record when riding her. She will also race near the lead. If I have a choice, I prefer to back Roughies racing near the lead, as they make their own luck, and hopefully the shorter priced horses back in the field suffer bad luck.
Backing them both on a 1u win / 3 u place scenario returns 42 units if one places. Effective odds of $5.25 on your outlay of 8 units, and you always have the flukers chance one of them wins, and then your return jumps to $11.60.
Randwick R8 - 7 Allergic. $41
There's a little bit of "Yeah, but...." here. Allergic hasn't run a place, since 27/5/2017. Yeah, but he has only had 2 preparations and 6 starts in that time, this being the 2nd prep. Allergic hasn't finished closer than 3.6L from the winner in that time, and has been beaten an average of 6.8L. Yeah, but let's look at his record broken up into 4th and up beyond, and 1st, 2nd & 3rd up, he is 4th up this week. Career 38-8-5-7, 1st-3rd up 21-2-1-2, 4th+ up 17-6-4-5!!!! Look at that, he has only missed a place twice, when he has made a 4th run or more in a prep! He's 15-5-0-4 on wet tracks. Yeah, but when 4th up and beyond, and racing on wet tracks, he is 7-3-0-4!
Randwick R9 - 6 Master Of Arts. $27
He's 4th up, getting out to a distance (2600m), and getting onto a wet track. Let's look at that scenario. Career 32-8-3-4, 4th up and beyond 17-7-2-2, 2200-2600m 11-5-2-0, wet tracks 9-4-2-1. Let's put that all together. When 4th up and beyond, racing between 2200-2600m, and on a wet track, he is 6-4-1-0!!! If that's not worth an each-way bet, I don't know what is!
Randwick R10 - 3 Noble Joey. $18, but we might get better!
There are many axioms in horse racing, and one of the better ones is "1000m horses, in 1000m races". Noble joey fits the bill here. He is 5-3-2-0 at 1000m, and 3-1-2-0 at 1000m at this track. He is also good in the wet being 12-4-4-0. Has a history of drifting in the betting, sometimes dramatically. At his last win (in July this year), he drifted from $13 to $26.
