Looking at Number 1 picks (and who you could have got instead). I think we overstate the benefit of number 1 versus lots of picks, to allow hits and misses, in the top 30.
2017 Rayner (Stephenson 6, Higgins 17, Kelly 24)
2016 McGrath (Parfitt, Witherden and Fisher all mid-twenties)
2015 Weitering (Curnow 12, Himmelberg 16, Gresham 18)
2014 McCartin (Brayshaw 3, DeGoey 5, Heeney 18)
2013 Boyd (Kelly 2, Bontempelli 4, Sheed 11, Cripps 13, M.Crouch 21, Merrett 26)
2012 Whitfield (Grundy 18)
2011 Patton (Coniglio 2, Wingard 6, Greene 11, Smith 14)
2010 Swallow (Gaff 4, Polec 5, Heppell 11, Darling 26, Parker 40)
2009 Scully (Martin 3, Fyfe 20)
2008 Watts (Naitanui 2, Hurley 5, Ziebel 9, Davis 10, Sidebottom 11, Shuey 18, Beams 29, Hanneberry 30)
2007 Kreuzer (Cotchin 2, Danger 10, Rioli 12, Ward 19, Westhoff 33, Steven 42
2006 Gibbs (Selwood 7, J.Riewoldt 13, Goldstein 37, Kennedy (Syd) 40, Gray 55)
2005 Murphy (Kennedy (WC) 4, Pendles 5, Higgins 11, Hurn 13, Birchall 14
2004 Deledio (Roughead 2, Griffen 3, Franklin 5, Lewis 7)
I think the last two (Rayner and McGrath) might turn out to be marginally the best in their cohort and Whitfield may end up challenging Grundy for the best of 2012 but you probably have to go back to 2003 to find a number 1 pick (Adam Cooney) who was the best (at least he got a Brownlow) in his cohort and even injury got him in the end. The rest suggest No1 pick is still a bit of a lottery. The more (decent) tickets in the lottery the better.