Position Rucks Discussion
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I think if you are expecting 85 from him, you probably need to reconsider the selection? I don't think he'd make nearly enough cash to make the selection worthwhile if he only averaged 85. I don't have the exact price projections though.
@Presto Could you please do projections of Mumford's price at his R14 bye if he averaged 85, 90, 95, 100?
Much appreciated!
@Presto Could you please do projections of Mumford's price at his R14 bye if he averaged 85, 90, 95, 100?
Much appreciated!
Which ruckmen will benefit from this season’s rule changes?
Chris Cavanagh, Sunday Herald Sun
January 27, 2019 9:00am
Subscriber only
Ruckmen are back to being exactly that, with statistics showing a marked rise in time spent battling it out for the hit-outs.
Clubs have increasingly moved away from sharing the role between two players and resting one in the forward line or throwing them down back.
Champion Data statistics show that in 2013 just two players spent more than 90 per cent of their game time across the season in the ruck — North Melbourne’s Todd Goldstein and the Western Bulldogs’ Will Minson.
Last season, 16 players spent more than 90 per cent of their game time in the ruck, topped by Richmond’s Toby Nankervis (99 per cent), North Melbourne’s Todd Goldstein (98 per cent) and Adelaide’s Sam Jacobs (98 per cent).
Western Bulldogs and Greater Western Sydney were the two clubs not represented in the figures.
YOUR CLUB’S RUCK HOPES
Jon Ralph
ADELAIDE
Sam Jacobs is nearly 31, but last year he played every game and amassed 798 hit-outs and has enough ruck wiles to quickly adjust to the new rules.
BRISBANE LIONS
As well as being a star ruckman around the ground Stef Martin manages a respectable 16.1 per hitout to advantage win percentage (seventh in AFL). With 204cm Oscar McInerney showing signs, Brisbane is well stocked.
CARLTON
Should dominate: Matthew Kreuzer played a dozen games last year because of heart issues, but he is exactly the kind of ruckman who would take the ball out of the ruck before booting it long upfield. Matthew Lobbe averaged an excellent 35 hit-outs in the last six weeks of the season.
COLLINGWOOD
Should dominate: The new rules were made for players like Brodie Grundy, who is effectively an extra midfielder for the Pies. He will know exactly when to tap to his onball brigade and when to exploit an undersized ruck by winning the ball himself.
ESSENDON
Only Max Gawn, Grundy and Nic Naitanui had a better hitout to advantage percentage than Tom Bellchambers. Zac Clarke this year joins him as backup. With Shaun McKernan undersized but able to play ruck, the Dons have all options covered.
FREMANTLE
Should dominate: God help a player like Shaun Grigg when he goes up against Aaron Sandilands in a boundary throw-in. With Shaun Darcy, Lloyd Meek and Rory Lobb as options, coach Ross Lyon will find ways to exploit the new rule.
GEELONG
Rhys Stanley wins less than half as many hit-outs to advantage as Aaron Sandilands, doing his best work around the ground. Then there is Zac Smith, better in the centre square, as well as Ryan Abbott and new addition Darcy Fort (205cm). Doubts about who stands up.
GOLD COAST
Jarrod Witts has put together several excellent seasons and should adjust to the rules but does win a hitout to advantage only 12.7 per cent of the time.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
Shane Mumford comes back from retirement to throw his weight around. Matthew Flynn and draftee Kieren Briggs are seen as a Grundy prototypes. Then there is Dawson Simpson. Which of them becomes the club’s first-choice ruck?
HAWTHORN
Ben McEvoy is an old-school ruckman in a rich vein of form and Jon Ceglar played 11 encouraging games after a knee reco. The Hawks won’t dominate under the new rules, but they won’t be caught out.
MELBOURNE
Should dominate: Gawn will not only have the chance to push forward more with the acquisition of Steven May, he should feast on undersized rucks. This change should be called The Max Gawn Rule. You can see him grabbing the ball out of the ruck and before hitting the ground launching a quickfire handball at Angus Brayshaw or Clayton Oliver.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Todd Goldstein turned back the clock in 2018 by playing every game and amassing 783 hit-outs. Won’t be exploited by this rule. Braydon Preuss left for Melbourne in a perplexing trade during the summer.
PORT ADELAIDE
Should dominate: At his best and injury free, Paddy Ryder is the kind of high-leaping ruckman who has the skills to wrest the ball from the ruck. Still went at 17.7 per cent win rate from hit-outs to advantage despite a wretched run with injury. Scott Lycett comes in as a free agent.
RICHMOND
Could struggle: The Tigers don’t mind losing the stoppages as long as they win the next contest from there. But with Shaun Grigg attending 10 ruck contests a game and Toby Nankervis a round-the-ground ruck, they have issues with this new rule.
ST KILDA
Could struggle: The Saints had issues before Tom Hickey departed for West Coast. Billy Longer is rough and tough in close and Rowan Marshall and Lewis Pearce will compete. But rivals will again look at the Saints ruck as an area they can dominate this year, even before the new rule’s advent.
SYDNEY
Callum Sinclair had a strong year for Sydney, but his hitout to advantage win rate of 9.9 per cent was the fourth-worst of the 22 ruckmen to play 10 or more games. Sam Naismith comes back from an ACL to bolster the Swans ruck ranks.
WEST COAST
So much depends on the fitness of Naitanui, who coach Adam Simpson says could be back mid-year. He is so freakish he can do anything — ruck rule tweaks or not. Now the Eagles have quality tap ruckman Hickey and Grand Final hero Nathan Vardy.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Could struggle: Jordan Roughead is off to the Pies, Tom Boyd is battling a lingering back injury and for all his talents, Tim English has played only nine games. Luke Beveridge will again go into a season knowing he hasn’t nailed down who his first ruckman is. English could still be anything, but still hands Aaron Sandilands a 25kg weight advantage. That can’t help given the new rules.
Chris Cavanagh, Sunday Herald Sun
January 27, 2019 9:00am
Subscriber only
Ruckmen are back to being exactly that, with statistics showing a marked rise in time spent battling it out for the hit-outs.
Clubs have increasingly moved away from sharing the role between two players and resting one in the forward line or throwing them down back.
Champion Data statistics show that in 2013 just two players spent more than 90 per cent of their game time across the season in the ruck — North Melbourne’s Todd Goldstein and the Western Bulldogs’ Will Minson.
Last season, 16 players spent more than 90 per cent of their game time in the ruck, topped by Richmond’s Toby Nankervis (99 per cent), North Melbourne’s Todd Goldstein (98 per cent) and Adelaide’s Sam Jacobs (98 per cent).
Western Bulldogs and Greater Western Sydney were the two clubs not represented in the figures.
YOUR CLUB’S RUCK HOPES
Jon Ralph
ADELAIDE
Sam Jacobs is nearly 31, but last year he played every game and amassed 798 hit-outs and has enough ruck wiles to quickly adjust to the new rules.
BRISBANE LIONS
As well as being a star ruckman around the ground Stef Martin manages a respectable 16.1 per hitout to advantage win percentage (seventh in AFL). With 204cm Oscar McInerney showing signs, Brisbane is well stocked.
CARLTON
Should dominate: Matthew Kreuzer played a dozen games last year because of heart issues, but he is exactly the kind of ruckman who would take the ball out of the ruck before booting it long upfield. Matthew Lobbe averaged an excellent 35 hit-outs in the last six weeks of the season.
COLLINGWOOD
Should dominate: The new rules were made for players like Brodie Grundy, who is effectively an extra midfielder for the Pies. He will know exactly when to tap to his onball brigade and when to exploit an undersized ruck by winning the ball himself.
ESSENDON
Only Max Gawn, Grundy and Nic Naitanui had a better hitout to advantage percentage than Tom Bellchambers. Zac Clarke this year joins him as backup. With Shaun McKernan undersized but able to play ruck, the Dons have all options covered.
FREMANTLE
Should dominate: God help a player like Shaun Grigg when he goes up against Aaron Sandilands in a boundary throw-in. With Shaun Darcy, Lloyd Meek and Rory Lobb as options, coach Ross Lyon will find ways to exploit the new rule.
GEELONG
Rhys Stanley wins less than half as many hit-outs to advantage as Aaron Sandilands, doing his best work around the ground. Then there is Zac Smith, better in the centre square, as well as Ryan Abbott and new addition Darcy Fort (205cm). Doubts about who stands up.
GOLD COAST
Jarrod Witts has put together several excellent seasons and should adjust to the rules but does win a hitout to advantage only 12.7 per cent of the time.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
Shane Mumford comes back from retirement to throw his weight around. Matthew Flynn and draftee Kieren Briggs are seen as a Grundy prototypes. Then there is Dawson Simpson. Which of them becomes the club’s first-choice ruck?
HAWTHORN
Ben McEvoy is an old-school ruckman in a rich vein of form and Jon Ceglar played 11 encouraging games after a knee reco. The Hawks won’t dominate under the new rules, but they won’t be caught out.
MELBOURNE
Should dominate: Gawn will not only have the chance to push forward more with the acquisition of Steven May, he should feast on undersized rucks. This change should be called The Max Gawn Rule. You can see him grabbing the ball out of the ruck and before hitting the ground launching a quickfire handball at Angus Brayshaw or Clayton Oliver.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Todd Goldstein turned back the clock in 2018 by playing every game and amassing 783 hit-outs. Won’t be exploited by this rule. Braydon Preuss left for Melbourne in a perplexing trade during the summer.
PORT ADELAIDE
Should dominate: At his best and injury free, Paddy Ryder is the kind of high-leaping ruckman who has the skills to wrest the ball from the ruck. Still went at 17.7 per cent win rate from hit-outs to advantage despite a wretched run with injury. Scott Lycett comes in as a free agent.
RICHMOND
Could struggle: The Tigers don’t mind losing the stoppages as long as they win the next contest from there. But with Shaun Grigg attending 10 ruck contests a game and Toby Nankervis a round-the-ground ruck, they have issues with this new rule.
ST KILDA
Could struggle: The Saints had issues before Tom Hickey departed for West Coast. Billy Longer is rough and tough in close and Rowan Marshall and Lewis Pearce will compete. But rivals will again look at the Saints ruck as an area they can dominate this year, even before the new rule’s advent.
SYDNEY
Callum Sinclair had a strong year for Sydney, but his hitout to advantage win rate of 9.9 per cent was the fourth-worst of the 22 ruckmen to play 10 or more games. Sam Naismith comes back from an ACL to bolster the Swans ruck ranks.
WEST COAST
So much depends on the fitness of Naitanui, who coach Adam Simpson says could be back mid-year. He is so freakish he can do anything — ruck rule tweaks or not. Now the Eagles have quality tap ruckman Hickey and Grand Final hero Nathan Vardy.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Could struggle: Jordan Roughead is off to the Pies, Tom Boyd is battling a lingering back injury and for all his talents, Tim English has played only nine games. Luke Beveridge will again go into a season knowing he hasn’t nailed down who his first ruckman is. English could still be anything, but still hands Aaron Sandilands a 25kg weight advantage. That can’t help given the new rules.
Mumford is not currently in my team, probably for that reason, lol
My point was more around having realistic expectations as to what you expect from a player.
Goldstein is 2 years younger and went at 101 last year and has not had a year off.
Mumfords last two years 98 ish over 20 and 21 games or there abouts, after 12 months out I think if he goes 90+ that would be an outstanding result.
My point was more around having realistic expectations as to what you expect from a player.
Goldstein is 2 years younger and went at 101 last year and has not had a year off.
Mumfords last two years 98 ish over 20 and 21 games or there abouts, after 12 months out I think if he goes 90+ that would be an outstanding result.
You have received some good answers to your question, and I would just like to expand a little on Darkie's 4th point in his reply to you:
"There are only 2 Rucks ....."
The biggest risk I see when comparing Grundy/Gawn to Danger/Macrae, is that the Rucks have no "slip" safety net. You buy Danger expecting him to be the seasons F1, and Macrae hoping he will be the seasons M1-3. If they don't meet your expectations, and slip to say F4 and M5, while you have overpaid for them initially (probably), you have still stocked your team with players that qualify amongst being the best possible within their allotted position. If you start a set and forget Ruck combo, you don't have this "slip" safety net. If one or both don't finish top 2 and slide down lower, you are automatically behind teams that have the actual R1/R2. You are then forced to decide, depending on far below the newly crowned R1/R2 Grundy and/or Gawn are, if you will side trade them (as Darkie indicated). That is not as big a concern for Dangerfield/Macrae as, even though you have probably overpaid for them, they are still amongst the very best selections for their position, in the example I have given.
"There are only 2 Rucks ....."
The biggest risk I see when comparing Grundy/Gawn to Danger/Macrae, is that the Rucks have no "slip" safety net. You buy Danger expecting him to be the seasons F1, and Macrae hoping he will be the seasons M1-3. If they don't meet your expectations, and slip to say F4 and M5, while you have overpaid for them initially (probably), you have still stocked your team with players that qualify amongst being the best possible within their allotted position. If you start a set and forget Ruck combo, you don't have this "slip" safety net. If one or both don't finish top 2 and slide down lower, you are automatically behind teams that have the actual R1/R2. You are then forced to decide, depending on far below the newly crowned R1/R2 Grundy and/or Gawn are, if you will side trade them (as Darkie indicated). That is not as big a concern for Dangerfield/Macrae as, even though you have probably overpaid for them, they are still amongst the very best selections for their position, in the example I have given.
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Thanks Row appreciate the reply. I think that was the one point that stuck out to me which I hadn't really thought of.
My views on the main ruck options:
Grundy - unless he gets injured I like him for 120+ again. Even if he drops off I would be surprised to see anything under 115.
Gawn - same as above. I have no issue with the Preuss. Last year I was 50/50 on Nank and Grundy. I ended up going Nank as all the talk was Cox could take his points. He ended up playing forward I know but I won't make that a reason to discard Gawn.
Nank - was on him last year and he was handy but I cant see him becoming an elite scorer
Goldy - will be 31 so as per a lot of players would be hard to increase their average by 10+ to get back up around the 110 mark from the wrong side of 30.
Mummy / Kreuz / Longer - No interest at all
So at this stage if I don't go Grundy / Gawn I would likely be looking at one of them + a rookie as none of the rest appeal to me so if you have any gems I'm all ears!
My views on the main ruck options:
Grundy - unless he gets injured I like him for 120+ again. Even if he drops off I would be surprised to see anything under 115.
Gawn - same as above. I have no issue with the Preuss. Last year I was 50/50 on Nank and Grundy. I ended up going Nank as all the talk was Cox could take his points. He ended up playing forward I know but I won't make that a reason to discard Gawn.
Nank - was on him last year and he was handy but I cant see him becoming an elite scorer
Goldy - will be 31 so as per a lot of players would be hard to increase their average by 10+ to get back up around the 110 mark from the wrong side of 30.
Mummy / Kreuz / Longer - No interest at all
So at this stage if I don't go Grundy / Gawn I would likely be looking at one of them + a rookie as none of the rest appeal to me so if you have any gems I'm all ears!
Ruckmen can go for a few years more than other players so I wouldn't write off Goldy just yet. Cox and Sandi had good years at 32, 33 years of age. Not 120+ good but around the 110 mark. Even if he is about 7 or 8 points shy of Grundy and Gawn the $150k saved would probably be a win. More than 10 points behind might start to look like a loss.
Agreed! I think if Goldy can push 110, he might be the best R2 himself by playing every game. Gawn could average 115, but with Preuss there, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dees gave Gawn a rest at some stage. No strong backup for Goldy and the Roos will need to win every game to stay contention, so if Goldy is fit, he definitely plays.
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I'm not as bullish on Goldy going 110+ I see more of a 102-108 and I see Gawn 118+
The resting of Gawn could very well happen but I won't exclude him based on the fact they might rest him.
Nank was supposed to be rested throughout the season last year to keep him fresh..he never was. I don't think teams rest their big names for the sake of resting unless they are an older Hodge type - even he was only rested once last season
The resting of Gawn could very well happen but I won't exclude him based on the fact they might rest him.
Nank was supposed to be rested throughout the season last year to keep him fresh..he never was. I don't think teams rest their big names for the sake of resting unless they are an older Hodge type - even he was only rested once last season
According to our poll on top of the page, if you want to go 'set and forget', then Grundy is a must and Gawn or Goldy fill the R2.
I see Goldy as a safe selection for around a 105 avg.
I think Gawn will be a top 2 ruckman, one problem is, he is priced for his 127.5 avg in 2018, which I don't see him reaching again, so he is overpriced.
Resting Gawn is not a problem if you have Hoff as a back up in the Fwd. Resting Gawn could mean he will be refreshed to continue scoring at his optimum. If Goldy is carrying an injury in games, and there is no good replacement, Nth may be forced to play him, then one could expect some low score games.
The other obvious alternative is to select a R2 Cash Cow, to later upgrade on the ruckman that is firing.
I see Goldy as a safe selection for around a 105 avg.
I think Gawn will be a top 2 ruckman, one problem is, he is priced for his 127.5 avg in 2018, which I don't see him reaching again, so he is overpriced.
Resting Gawn is not a problem if you have Hoff as a back up in the Fwd. Resting Gawn could mean he will be refreshed to continue scoring at his optimum. If Goldy is carrying an injury in games, and there is no good replacement, Nth may be forced to play him, then one could expect some low score games.
The other obvious alternative is to select a R2 Cash Cow, to later upgrade on the ruckman that is firing.