Really like the discussion here and in the RMT thread about the rucks. I have a few disparate thoughts:
- There are no risk-free options in the ruck this year. (This is probably true every year). I don't mean that just in the sense that nothing is certain in this game, but in the sense that every pick has a significant downside well within the realms of possibility.
- I have said this elsewhere and it is a sub-point to the above but I think a lot of people overstate the risk of cheap picks and understate the risk of expensive picks. This is partly due to how people value trades. I think trades are a bit overvalued on this site sometimes. The idea of using two trades to fix up failed rookies/cash-cows in my R2 spot scares me less than paying $700k for a player going at 105 and being stuck a whole premo behind the teams that nailed their value picks, leaking 40 points a week until teams are fully upgraded.
- I think we are too conservative and too certain when we state our predicted ranges. We tend to take last year's average and adjust up or down depending on our predictions, but the reality doesn't work like this. I definitely include myself here, and I know there's no real alternative, unless someone can introduce a bell curve probability app so we can easily upload graphs to our posts.
- It is too early to know. This is even more true this year before we see how the rule changes affect the flow of the game and SC scoring. I have gotten myself into the position before of being anti certain players, making the case against them here, and it's hard to extricate yourself once you're there. I started to see everything through the prism of proving my point, which was bad for my judgment. I think it's useful to avoid this.