Position Rucks Discussion
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The speculation is that AFL teams will play 2 ruckmen. That doesn't necessarily mean 2 bona fide ruckmen, but could be a ruckman and a competent rucking tall Fwd or Def helping out.
From what I have read, (comments not directly connected with AFL clubs):
STK - Longer will be the ruckman and Marshall the relieving ruckman.
WBD - English will be the ruckman and Boyd (when fit) will be the relieving ruckman.
From what I have read, (comments not directly connected with AFL clubs):
STK - Longer will be the ruckman and Marshall the relieving ruckman.
WBD - English will be the ruckman and Boyd (when fit) will be the relieving ruckman.
Just to slightly elaborate on my previous post .. the muscle men of the rucks might get a slight advantage.
- Ie. Gawn may see a decrease in HOTA but can now out muscle opponents, take possession and give out a handball etc which might be classed as a contested possession ... and make him just as effective as an additional midfielder like many see Grundy ... just food for thought ...
- Ie. Gawn may see a decrease in HOTA but can now out muscle opponents, take possession and give out a handball etc which might be classed as a contested possession ... and make him just as effective as an additional midfielder like many see Grundy ... just food for thought ...
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Really insightful work, thank you for compiling!
A couple of notes from the above:
1) Earlier in the thread, the point was made that while the top 2 ruckmen from one season have never collectively backed it up the following season, there has never been a gap between the top two and the pack this large.
Based on the above, that seems correct. Using the gap between 2nd and 3rd as the metric, the gap between Gawn and Stef is 22 points. The next highest gap was in 2013 (Goldy to Krooz, 16 points). This is where it gets interesting though - in that year, neither the top 2 ruckmen were even Top 4 in the following year. In fact, in the last decade, only 3 ruckmen (Sandi 10, Mummy 11, Goldy 16) have ever gone Top 2 back to back!
2) Slightly contrary to the first point - the last time there was a lot of pre-season hype about two premium ruckmen was the Gawn-Goldy combo in 2016. Had you had taken both at the start, while you certainly would have been disappointed with Goldy given his 2015, you still would have ended up with the Top 2 rucks without making a single trade.
How good is contrary information!
A couple of notes from the above:
1) Earlier in the thread, the point was made that while the top 2 ruckmen from one season have never collectively backed it up the following season, there has never been a gap between the top two and the pack this large.
Based on the above, that seems correct. Using the gap between 2nd and 3rd as the metric, the gap between Gawn and Stef is 22 points. The next highest gap was in 2013 (Goldy to Krooz, 16 points). This is where it gets interesting though - in that year, neither the top 2 ruckmen were even Top 4 in the following year. In fact, in the last decade, only 3 ruckmen (Sandi 10, Mummy 11, Goldy 16) have ever gone Top 2 back to back!
2) Slightly contrary to the first point - the last time there was a lot of pre-season hype about two premium ruckmen was the Gawn-Goldy combo in 2016. Had you had taken both at the start, while you certainly would have been disappointed with Goldy given his 2015, you still would have ended up with the Top 2 rucks without making a single trade.
How good is contrary information!
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In 2013, I have Dean Cox at 107.3 in his last hurrah as an average > 100.
I have that year's top 4 as
2013:
Minson 114
Goldstein 114
Cox 107
Kreuzer 98
Cox continued his fine run from 2008 - 2013 of only going below 100 once and that was in 2010 and IIRC he was carrying an injury that year despite playing all 22 games. Anyone remember? Not relevant at all to the 2019 discussion.
I have that year's top 4 as
2013:
Minson 114
Goldstein 114
Cox 107
Kreuzer 98
Cox continued his fine run from 2008 - 2013 of only going below 100 once and that was in 2010 and IIRC he was carrying an injury that year despite playing all 22 games. Anyone remember? Not relevant at all to the 2019 discussion.
Some reasons for the more drastic changes in the top 4 from year to year IIRC are:
2015 - I have Sandilands 4th that year with 107.5 and Mumford 5th
2017 - Gawn & Goldy injury affected, Naita missed the whole year with injury
2018 - Kruze, Ryder injury affected
2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015 were very strong years for ruck choices with 8-10 players going over 100 each year. So only picking the top 4 players in those years can be misleading because in a lot of cases the guys that dropped out of the top 4 were still close to it the following year.
I think just isolating a top 4 movement can make the situation look more dicy than it really is. When you look over the year on year averages for the core group of premium rucks you see mostly a trend of averages > 100 unless their year is injury affected. In some cases they move up and down by 5-20 ppg without an obvious explanation. But the really big dips are mostly explained by injury.
Interestingly from 2009-2018 there are only 14 rucks in total that ever went over 100. Of those only 10 managed it more than once. Of those only 10 have ever gone over 110. Only 8 went over 100 more than once AND went over 110 at least once.
The "elite 8" are Cox, Sandilands, Goldstein. Mumford, Naitanui, Jacobs, Martin and Gawn. It's was surprising to me just how short a list it was fitting my criteria. Will Grundy be the 9th? He's already gone over 110 but so far only gone over 100 once.
2015 - I have Sandilands 4th that year with 107.5 and Mumford 5th
2017 - Gawn & Goldy injury affected, Naita missed the whole year with injury
2018 - Kruze, Ryder injury affected
2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015 were very strong years for ruck choices with 8-10 players going over 100 each year. So only picking the top 4 players in those years can be misleading because in a lot of cases the guys that dropped out of the top 4 were still close to it the following year.
I think just isolating a top 4 movement can make the situation look more dicy than it really is. When you look over the year on year averages for the core group of premium rucks you see mostly a trend of averages > 100 unless their year is injury affected. In some cases they move up and down by 5-20 ppg without an obvious explanation. But the really big dips are mostly explained by injury.
Interestingly from 2009-2018 there are only 14 rucks in total that ever went over 100. Of those only 10 managed it more than once. Of those only 10 have ever gone over 110. Only 8 went over 100 more than once AND went over 110 at least once.
The "elite 8" are Cox, Sandilands, Goldstein. Mumford, Naitanui, Jacobs, Martin and Gawn. It's was surprising to me just how short a list it was fitting my criteria. Will Grundy be the 9th? He's already gone over 110 but so far only gone over 100 once.
It's a very big call to spend 700k on any player, let alone the uncertainty of the rucks. No player has averaged 115+ and been able to back it up the following season. But, who's to say both Grundy and Gawn couldn't replicate or come close to their 2018 seasons, they were clearly and by a long way the best two rucks last season. No doubt it will be interesting to see how things play out and whether they would be poor/good/great picks, on a points per dollar spent evaluation at the end of the season.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/he...n/news-story/96b65fd04ee68e2261362981d55a116e
Shane Mumford is “hungry” for success and primed for a massive 2019, says GWS co-captain Phil Davis
………...And while Mumford will face a delayed start to the season ………...“He’s been outstanding. He’s up and flying at the moment, doing a bit of match simulation,” Davis said.
“He’s got the hunger — and I think that’s the most important thing. He’s had some time off and he’s come back as hungry as ever.
“His training form has been outstanding and we think he can play a big role. He’s hungry and he’s actually moving around as well as I’ve seen in my time.
“The proof will be in the pudding, but we’re pretty excited about what he can do.”
Mumford could make his AFL return as early as Round 3, ………...Until then, however, it’s likely Dawson Simpson will shoulder the ruck load with Rory Lobb (Fremantle) and Jon Patton (ACL) unavailable.
Draftee Kieren Briggs could theoretically also come into consideration...…….
………..“He’s just such a great competitor with ruck craft,” Davis said.
“He might not be as big as the Max Gawns and the like, but gee he goes hard and does whatever it takes for the team to win.”
“He’s a really dominant ruckman, not just in the ruck but around the ground.”
Shane Mumford is “hungry” for success and primed for a massive 2019, says GWS co-captain Phil Davis
………...And while Mumford will face a delayed start to the season ………...“He’s been outstanding. He’s up and flying at the moment, doing a bit of match simulation,” Davis said.
“He’s got the hunger — and I think that’s the most important thing. He’s had some time off and he’s come back as hungry as ever.
“His training form has been outstanding and we think he can play a big role. He’s hungry and he’s actually moving around as well as I’ve seen in my time.
“The proof will be in the pudding, but we’re pretty excited about what he can do.”
Mumford could make his AFL return as early as Round 3, ………...Until then, however, it’s likely Dawson Simpson will shoulder the ruck load with Rory Lobb (Fremantle) and Jon Patton (ACL) unavailable.
Draftee Kieren Briggs could theoretically also come into consideration...…….
………..“He’s just such a great competitor with ruck craft,” Davis said.
“He might not be as big as the Max Gawns and the like, but gee he goes hard and does whatever it takes for the team to win.”
“He’s a really dominant ruckman, not just in the ruck but around the ground.”
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You can't rely on ruck averages from the years gone by, especially of the good old days with Cox as the SC scoring system has changed so much. I remember reading a comparative a couple of years ago which showed their numbers would be much higher in the current SC scoring system.
Looking at differentials between the rucks works though.
Looking at differentials between the rucks works though.
omg such a timely post
been fascinating reading the comments and debate over Grundy & Gawn and whether they actually will match or surpass last season's averages or not ? Those points count for nothing this year so to me the question is which 2 ruckman can average 110+ , even more so the "Elite 8" , Martin was the only one who averaged 105 , so to my way of thinking is if we think Grundy & Gawn will be in the Top 3 again we just pick them or at least 1 of them and start a mid pricer (eg Hickey , Longer , Mumford) and then workout whether Martin , McEvoy , Goldy etc can get to 105+.
Grundy and Gawn may have set the bar way too high this season based on last season averages.
Just my thoughts.
been fascinating reading the comments and debate over Grundy & Gawn and whether they actually will match or surpass last season's averages or not ? Those points count for nothing this year so to me the question is which 2 ruckman can average 110+ , even more so the "Elite 8" , Martin was the only one who averaged 105 , so to my way of thinking is if we think Grundy & Gawn will be in the Top 3 again we just pick them or at least 1 of them and start a mid pricer (eg Hickey , Longer , Mumford) and then workout whether Martin , McEvoy , Goldy etc can get to 105+.
Grundy and Gawn may have set the bar way too high this season based on last season averages.
Just my thoughts.
