Position Rucks Discussion

[t.thomas6]

I'm interested in Goldy (either as R1 or R2) on the basis that Goldy may not leak as many points (if any) to Gawn like he did last year. Getting Goldy however, likely means that you're committed to missing out on Gawn (as it's likely you'll want to end up with Grundy) so it doesn't come without risk.

Gawn's ceiling average is very iffy this season due to Preuss. Does he get less TOG within games (Nic Nat style)? Can he average 115-120+ whilst getting possibly 30-40% time up forward? Does he get rested against weaker ruck opposition to keep him fresh later in the year (knowing Preuss can handle it)? He could fall back down to a 110 average. If that's the case, that's only possibly 5 ppg better than Goldy, even if he goes at a 105 avg.

Goldy has no genuine ruck backup, so the Roos would be pushing him to play every game (especially as they're more likely to be on the cusp of the 8 and needing to win games). If he's looking fully fit in the preseason, he could the obvious starting ruck in hindsight.

I think if I start Goldy, it's more likely at R2. I think Goldy is a chance to average around 105-110. If Grundy averages 125-130, I'd probably rather pay the $150k for the extra 20ppg + points earnt on VC loopholes.

So I assume you've gone with Grundy and Goldy?

 

[Bomber18]

So I assume you've gone with Grundy and Goldy?

Possibly, I’m still hopeful for a risky ZClarke/Fort at R2 or possibly a Kreuzer R2 but might fallback on the Goldy R2 route with Grundy at R1 if it all looks too risky.

 

[Bermi]

He’s under consideration but worried he gets wrecked against some of those dominant rucks like Gawn, Grundy, Goldy and Sandi. He plays them all pre byes from memory!

Yeah, longer won't score high in all his games, but Longer just needs to make enough money for upgrading. The money that wasn't used on Longer, as R2, has gone to another player that is scoring the higher points.

 

[Bermi]

……….Gawn's ceiling average is very iffy this season due to Preuss.
Does he get less TOG within games (Nic Nat style)?
Can he average 115-120+ whilst getting possibly 30-40% time up forward?
Does he get rested against weaker ruck opposition to keep him fresh later in the year (knowing Preuss can handle it)?...……..

Isn't it fantastic that we haven't got all the answers for each player!
Imagine how boring it would be if we had all the answers and how identical each team would be.
And why would we need this forum

 

[Adrenaline]

Possibly, I’m still hopeful for a risky ZClarke/Fort at R2 or possibly a Kreuzer R2 but might fallback on the Goldy R2 route with Grundy at R1 if it all looks too risky.

I have the same concerns regarding gawn as you. i am considering 2 structures prior to round 1 which will involve grundy/mummy and another cheap ruckman like fort or go with gawn and grundy. option 1 is a bit more risky than option 2 imo due to we dont know if mummy will be fully fit and if a cheap ruckman gets 2 or more consecutive games but if the move works, then we get to see how pruss affects gawn or possibly buy gawn at a cheaper price.

 

[Hondo]

Here's something to think about - since 2010 (I don't have detailed price information back further than that) only 2 seasons have been recorded* where the player's price stayed above 600k for the entire season: Dangerfield and Ablett each once.

Grundy costs $708k.

If you were told one of your starting picks would likely lose 120k in value, would you still pick them? The premium just seems too high for me...

*Playing at least 18 games. There might be some I missed but not likely.

I reckon most $700k starting picks shed around $100k or even more at some point in the season.

It’s the risk you take but a risk that has to be taken on some players.

The effect of lowering the magic number during the season by itself causes all fully priced premiums to drop.

 

[Herbie66]

Is Mumford eligible to play JLT ?

 

[Bermi]

Is Mumford eligible to play JLT ?

I would think so according to:
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-05/x-may-mark-the-spot-for-ga***-return-to-footy
Feb 5, 2019
……..all players carrying over a suspension from the previous season,...……... able to play in the JLT Community Series.
"AFL suspensions are served in the home-and-away season and during the finals," the League confirmed to AFL.com.au on Tuesday.

 

[Herbie66]

I would think so according to:
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-05/x-may-mark-the-spot-for-ga***-return-to-footy
Feb 5, 2019
……..all players carrying over a suspension from the previous season,...……... able to play in the JLT Community Series.
"AFL suspensions are served in the home-and-away season and during the finals," the League confirmed to AFL.com.au on Tuesday.

Mumford's is a club suspension though.

 

[Peter56]

Here's something to think about - since 2010 (I don't have detailed price information back further than that) only 2 seasons have been recorded* where the player's price stayed above 600k for the entire season: Dangerfield and Ablett each once.

Grundy costs $708k.

If you were told one of your starting picks would likely lose 120k in value, would you still pick them? The premium just seems too high for me...

*Playing at least 18 games. There might be some I missed but not likely.

You might lose $120,000 but you might also be 200 points in front by the time that happens. Depends on whether the player you got in with the extra money has made up those points? and how important trades are?

 

[Dimmawit]

Ill admire those that start Gawn and Grundy and it turns out to be the right move but history suggests it not value for money.
As Hondo rightly says the game is set up for guys in the 700k range to lose value - almost as a rule - if you are picking Grundy surely you are doing it in the hope he averages 115 and not 130. Sure it's possible but it is unlikely. The crux is what does the 2nd best average and you can make a case its likely to be 105ish-110 (if believing the Preuss factor).

I'd love to see some numbers run on what would happen if you started Gawn Grundy, they both average 110 and compare that to a Grundy/Goldy combo with Clarke/Fort @ 60ppg and the net cash difference.

My bet is that the first loses 150k min. So the question as always is - where do you spend that cash from the R2 saving and was it worth it.

 

[Feerits Elf]

I reckon most $700k starting picks shed around $100k or even more at some point in the season.

Not most $700k starting picks - all of them (barring 2015 where Ablett missed three quarters of the season through injury).

Dangerfield dropped $200.7k by Round 17 in 2018.
Dangerfield dropped $156.6k by Round 9 in 2017.
Rockliff dropped $262.5k by Round 8 in 2015.
Ablett dropped $184.1k by Round 22 in 2013.
Pendlebury dropped $118.3k by Round 22 in 2012.
Ablett dropped $215.8k by Round 18 in 2010.

Hodge started at $738k in 2006 but averaged 104 over his first seven matches, including a 40 and a 53 (was carrying an ankle injury sustained at training for the 40 and in the case of the 53, got tagged to buggery by Troy Selwood up at Carrara).

Note that all of the players above were midfielders with the exception of Hodge (listed as a D/M). No rucks have started over $700k. Nearest is Goldstein 2016 who cost $695.1k; he dropped $194.2k by Rd 20.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Not most $700k starting picks - all of them (barring 2015 where Ablett missed three quarters of the season through injury).

Dangerfield dropped $200.7k by Round 17 in 2018.
Dangerfield dropped $156.6k by Round 9 in 2017.
Rockliff dropped $262.5k by Round 8 in 2015.
Ablett dropped $184.1k by Round 22 in 2013.
Pendlebury dropped $118.3k by Round 22 in 2012.
Ablett dropped $215.8k by Round 18 in 2010.

Hodge started at $738k in 2006 but averaged 104 over his first seven matches, including a 40 and a 53 (was carrying an ankle injury sustained at training for the 40 and in the case of the 53, got tagged to buggery by Troy Selwood up at Carrara).

Note that all of the players above were midfielders with the exception of Hodge (listed as a D/M). No rucks have started over $700k. Nearest is Goldstein 2016 who cost $695.1k; he dropped $194.2k by Rd 20.

I'd be interested to know whether the previous winners started these guys though, I reckon most did from what I remember listening to post SC season discussion. Many of those at the pointy end of the season start the best on each line.

 

[Feerits Elf]

I'd be interested to know whether the previous winners started these guys though, I reckon most did from what I remember listening to post SC season discussion. Many of those at the pointy end of the season start the best on each line.

Rockliff wasn't the dearest mid in 2015 (Ablett was). Winner started with Gaz only,

 

[NT.Thunder]

Rockliff wasn't the dearest mid in 2015 (Ablett was). Winner started with Gaz only,

Dropping cash from top end premiums isn't the end of the world - as long as they're not dropping their points significantly. Most still provide quality captain options.

I bet if people were to look at VC/C options for this season they would largely be made up of Macrae/Cripps/Fyfe/Danger/Grundy/Gawn -

 

[PC]

As Dimma says - the question if not starting Grundy and Gawn but still think they are the top two rucks, is how much value do you place on two trades in the rucks and probably two other trades to find the coin to get them in?

Let's say they drop 150k each by season's end - 300k is a lot of coin at the start of the season but the value of a dollar decreases as the season goes on.

Where do you spend the difference in starting price between them and whoever? No point keeping it in the bank. Do you upgrade a rookie to a midpricer or a value pick to an expensive pick in another line? There are probably more arguments against than for.

I am really struggling this year (and enjoying the feeling!) to guess what effect the rule changes will have. I don't think it is at all clear for the backline, and think there will be some effect in the mids and fwds. I am probably most confident for the rucks - strong rucks who get around the ground and who have good hota will benefit. That means Grundy and Gawn...

What if the 6, 6, 6 rule means coaching strategies constantly shift in the other lines through the season? This could see player SC averages go all over the place (contested mids probably excepted), and the knock on being we trade more through the other lines than expected.

Yes, players can get injured blah blah but you have to put your 10 mill somewhere! Probably wrong but time will tell

 

[NT.Thunder]

Those who identify the changes not necessarily before the season starts but early in the piece will do well this year. Those too proud or reluctant to make the trades early will get caught out I reckon.

I'm never scared to burn trades early. If you can't get to the pointy end quickly it does make it really hard.

Those saying they'll make their moves during the bye rounds, usually too late by then and it mainly helps those at the mid and back end to move large places but I reckon the higher you are in the rankings the less wiggle room there is.

So my motto is to go JuddMagic and burn all your trades by round 14

 

[Manikato1]

Not most $700k starting picks - all of them (barring 2015 where Ablett missed three quarters of the season through injury).

Dangerfield dropped $200.7k by Round 17 in 2018.
Dangerfield dropped $156.6k by Round 9 in 2017.
Rockliff dropped $262.5k by Round 8 in 2015.
Ablett dropped $184.1k by Round 22 in 2013.
Pendlebury dropped $118.3k by Round 22 in 2012.
Ablett dropped $215.8k by Round 18 in 2010.

Hodge started at $738k in 2006 but averaged 104 over his first seven matches, including a 40 and a 53 (was carrying an ankle injury sustained at training for the 40 and in the case of the 53, got tagged to buggery by Troy Selwood up at Carrara).

Note that all of the players above were midfielders with the exception of Hodge (listed as a D/M). No rucks have started over $700k. Nearest is Goldstein 2016 who cost $695.1k; he dropped $194.2k by Rd 20.

For me I would take how much they drop by Rd 22. It is when you are holding them, for how long and what they do when you have them. Danger in 2018 was 80k down by rd 5 and was ave 117 and was ave 122 by season end. In 2017 he was 49k down by rd 5 but was ave 125 which became 136 at season end. So yes they are going to lose money but in 2017 for example I would not have been worried at all. Like picking shares at the bottom however the timing to buy in is very hard to get right.

 

[Tails]

For me I would take how much they drop by Rd 22. It is when you are holding them, for how long and what they do when you have them. Danger in 2018 was 80k down by rd 5 and was ave 117 and was ave 122 by season end. In 2017 he was 49k down by rd 5 but was ave 125 which became 136 at season end. So yes they are going to lose money but in 2017 for example I would not have been worried at all. Like picking shares at the bottom however the timing to buy in is very hard to get right.

I'm more akin to thinking along the following lines ....

Two very expensive defenders who will probably end up being the top two scorers in that line
Two very expensive midfielders, one injured so now down to one who will probably end up being a top 8 scorer in that line
Two very expensive rucks who will probably end up being the top two scorers in that line
One very expensive forward who will probably end up being the top scorer in that line

So ... all are likely to lose cash at some stage as that is the way the pricing system goes ...
We can all argue about each player all day but everyone is taking Paddy so he is a moot point.
Will you start any of them if you're worried about early cash loss over potential points accrued throughout the season ... I've got 3 of them locked in but I guess it comes down to where you want to take your risks ...

 

[Manikato1]

At the moment of the expensive players you mention I am only starting Laird and Danger and Laird is no good thing to stay top two. While Grawndy could well remain the top two rucks the question is probably one of how far above the third and fourth rucks will they be. If it is 20-25 points then the money they do/do not lose is probably a non issue. If it is 5-10 points then that is much more of an issue I think. Currently I have neither but that could change ten times before Rd 1...