Was looking through team lists at SC relevant players and noticed what may be an interesting trend (I don't have the data set to do a full analysis across the league but it would be insightful for sure).
When WB won in 2018 (or were very competitive but lost) they seemed to generate lots of SC points for their midfielders. They also had a very healthy slice of the overall SC pie, despite their winning margins being often fairly small. Lets look at some numbers, showing the margin, SC team totals and any WB player who scored over 100:
R3 def Ess by 19 pts
SC: 1926 - 1376 (Hunter 142, Williams 139, Macrae 131, Bont 116, McLean 115, Dahlaus 113, Wallis 107, Daniel 102)
R6 def Carl by 21 pts
SC: 1786 - 1513 (Bont 145, Macrae 141, McLean 111)
R7 def GCS by 9 pts
SC: 1758 - 1543 (Macrae 189, McLean 146, Hunter 114)
R8 def Bris by 14 pts
SC: 1776 - 1524 (Macrae 156, Bont 132, McLean 115, Dunkley 105, Hunter 102, Suckling 102)
R15 def Geel by 2 pts
SC: 1590 - 1708 (Dunkley 105, McClean 104)
R20 def StK by 35 pts
SC: 1712 - 1587 (Johannisen 156, Dunkley 132, Macrae 121, Lipinksi 113, Hunter 108, Daniel 100, Bont 100)
R21 def Nth by 7 pts
SC: 1768 - 1531 (Hunter 155, Macrae 153, Bont 134, Daniel 120, McLean 112, Dunkley 106)
R22 def Carl by 17 pts
SC: 1750 - 1555 (Dunkley 157, Hunter 146, Bont 124, Macrae 110, Crozier 107, Wallis 101)
R23 lost to Rich by 3 pts (included because it is illustrative)
SC: 1751 - 1553 (Macrae 163, Hunter 127, Dunkley 116, Daniel 112, Bont 106, Crozier 101)
A few things I noticed:
- The list of 100s is almost 100% midfielders, which is unusual perhaps but not unexpected given the players on their list (no real standout forward targets, no real ruck, no dominating defender in 2018)
- Aside from Macrae, who just had an awesome season no matter which way you spin it, players like Hunter, Bont, McClean and Dunkley seem to score much better in wins.
- Macrae didn't play when they beat Geelong and everyone's SC scores were down (cause and effect?)
So the takeaway I'm getting is this: When WB are winning, their mids rack up disposals and SC points like nobody's business. It would seem Macrae's precision passing and control lifts the entire team to play better (probably giving lesser players more time and space to make effective disposals). They might dominate games through the middle with possession but it doesn't really translate to scoreboard dominance, so maybe the "close game" aspect of SC scoring boosts them up even more - 40 touches in a game that is "close" can score more than 40 touches in a blowout, despite the reason the game is close being that your team can't kick goals
.
So how many games will WB win in 2019? I struggle to see it being more than 8 or 9 again. If they look like they are running into some form or some weak teams, then their mids could be some great value to trade in.