Opinion Player X vs. Player Y

[pizza safety]

Gray is a tricky one. He hasn't moved from my side for some time but there seemed to be mixed messages on where he will play (IIRC he said more mid, the coaches said more forward?) and perhaps his fitness. If he's fit and playing mainly mid he's a lock. If not he could be an upgrade target. I don't love the next tier down, but could potentially be convinced on names like Darling, Mundy, Boak, Worpel or even Greene if you really wanted to raise cash. Wingard was my favourite cheaper option but he's no good to us right now.

I actually prefer Crouch to Oliver as a starting pick given his shoulders (although this does seem less of an issue so far than I had feared) and Collins looks an obvious pick to my eyes, so that seems like a win win to me.

Cheers Darkie

That's interesting with Gray, I'd probably turn to Boak without too much swagger out of the options mentioned. I only heard Robbie say he would probably play further up the ground this year, where did you see the coaches saying that he'd play more forward?

Hmmm I'm not as convinced by Collins as you are, the fact he was able to intercept so well in the WAFL and it didn't lead to AFL football or any other team picking him up at seasons end tells me that clubs didn't see his intercept ability translating to the AFL level.

It seems like he's gotten even better at it last year and it simply has to translate more than it did at first but I'm not sure to what extent. If he averaged 72 when he got a proper run at it it's likely he would've averaged the same if he got more games and in the 2nd year. It would follow that with his improvement he should improve and average 75-80 but the issue I have with that is he's at the suns and they routinely don't get the best out of players.

I feel like Rory Thompson out hurts him a lot as well because it's harder to be the interceptor when you're always playing on the number one forward and don't get much help. I still think he'll average 65-75 with good job security but I don't consider him a lock.

I'm still keen on him to an extent and he doesn't pose the injury risk that I feel Moore has. The security blanket with picking Moore alone for me was being able to downgrade to Collins if he got injured.

 

[IDIG]

B.Smith & Libba vs Duursma & Steele

Tough to say without seeing your whole team but i think it mostly depends on what you make of Duursma's JS. I like the other 3 names and i think they'll be pretty popular.

 

[Jurn Stern]

Whitfield & Duursma v Witherden & Darcy Moore

Whitfield and Duursma by a bit. Don’t see the big upside in Witherden and love Duursma as a rookie.

 

[Bomber18]

B.Smith & Libba vs Duursma & Steele

I think I'd pick Duursma and Steele there. Not too sure on Libba as a selection. Might pick the B.Smith option if the $200k was invested elsewhere a bit better.

 

[IDIG]

Witherden(D2), Collins (D5), Duursma (M9) and 30k

Vs

Sicily (D2) + Duursma (D7), Gibbons (M11)

I think as presented i'd say the first one but i think Gibbons should be at M11 in all teams regardless. Don't love either of Witherden or Sicily but that's just me; I'm most likely going very light in defense.

 

[IDIG]

Yeah excactly

Been looking at it like this

Fyfe 115, Balta 60, scrimshaw 70 = 240 plus 1 keeper

Sheed 105, Libba 95, Moore 80 = 280 slim chance of a keeper but good cash gen

I guess when we look at scoring potential, mid pricers will more often than not come ahead but i think we can be a little too optimistic with what we expect them to score.

Not to suggest your estimates are overly optimistic but it's something i struggle with and why i'm continually forcing myself to straighten up my team, on an almost fiddle by fiddle basis.

 

[Darkie]

hey Darkie

are you still keen to see how the big Mummy looks on his return ?

Yes! I'm not building my structure around him (albeit I never really was, he just worked well with Hoff, who I still have), but I still think he could be a good stepping cow. There is now some talk he may get rested though, which isn't ideal. Happy to watch and bring him in on the bubble if appropriate.

Like your creative thinking on R2 and 3, albeit it might be a tougher year to nail these picks in an out of the box way, due to a lack of options.

 

[Darkie]

Cheers Darkie

That's interesting with Gray, I'd probably turn to Boak without too much swagger out of the options mentioned. I only heard Robbie say he would probably play further up the ground this year, where did you see the coaches saying that he'd play more forward?

Hmmm I'm not as convinced by Collins as you are, the fact he was able to intercept so well in the WAFL and it didn't lead to AFL football or any other team picking him up at seasons end tells me that clubs didn't see his intercept ability translating to the AFL level.

It seems like he's gotten even better at it last year and it simply has to translate more than it did at first but I'm not sure to what extent. If he averaged 72 when he got a proper run at it it's likely he would've averaged the same if he got more games and in the 2nd year. It would follow that with his improvement he should improve and average 75-80 but the issue I have with that is he's at the suns and they routinely don't get the best out of players.

I feel like Rory Thompson out hurts him a lot as well because it's harder to be the interceptor when you're always playing on the number one forward and don't get much help. I still think he'll average 65-75 with good job security but I don't consider him a lock.

I'm still keen on him to an extent and he doesn't pose the injury risk that I feel Moore has. The security blanket with picking Moore alone for me was being able to downgrade to Collins if he got injured.

I'm not 100% sure re the Port coach's comments, but will have a think and let you know if I can recall. Strong chance it was somewhere on here though

Some good points re Collins. My thinking is essentially that anyone who is breaking records (eg most intercept marks ever in a state league season) is likely to be able to translate it at a higher level, and intercept marking is highly rewarded in SC, plus he's at GC so he shouldn't be short of opportunity to intercept

He may have some low scores but I think his spike scores could also be quite high, and his JS should be excellent.

 

[Herbie66]

Yes! I'm not building my structure around him (albeit I never really was, he just worked well with Hoff, who I still have), but I still think he could be a good stepping cow. There is now some talk he may get rested though, which isn't ideal. Happy to watch and bring him in on the bubble if appropriate.

Like your creative thinking on R2 and 3, albeit it might be a tougher year to nail these picks in an out of the box way, due to a lack of options.

Yeah I was going to go Gawn/Goldy but then thought that limits my options if Mummy does look the goods.

Have pencilled in Lycett at the moment , but may even see if English + Mummy might work better then perhaps have some playing options , Phillips (Car) as well if indeed Kreuzer plays CHB.

May even use R3 as a prospective cash cow.

Smith , Clarke , Flynn , Fort may yet be named.

Rookies are doing my head in.

 

[Beg2Differ]

Fyfe v Coniglio

Not concerned by Fyfe’s injury history. Fyfe can absolutely beast it however he is a regular member of my team and he often scores his points in clumps and then can be unsighted for a while (not just when resting forward). This is unsettling to watch and he does throw in the odd low score when the clumps don’t arrive.

Had Coniglio last year and he always seemed to be involved. He did play a bit forward (and kicked goals) but with the departure of Shiel I can see him improving his SC output further however I do acknowledge the potential for extra attention.

FYI other premium mids are currently Macrae, Oliver, Cripps and MCrouch.

 

[Hot Shame]

Grand Angus unless he stays out of Harmes way on the wing

Haha how well has Harmes move to mids been..

 

[Woodsey]

Mundy and B Smith v H Andrews and Boak

 

[NT.Thunder]

I agree with you re Whitfield / Witherden assessment.

I think Moore has too good a role to ignore. After watching him on the weekend, I personally have him as a must start but each to their own assessment.

I’ll be honest, I missed the game so interesting you say that. ?

 

[shogunhawk]

Hi, I would appreciate help on the following:
Duursma, Heeney, Butters
OR
B Smith, D Moore, Walsh

 

[Bomber18]

Hi, I would appreciate help on the following:
Duursma, Heeney, Butters
OR
B Smith, D Moore, Walsh

I’d go the first option but think you probably need a restructure to fit in Moore, Walsh, Butters and Duursma

 

[Bomber18]

Mundy and B Smith v H Andrews and Boak

Tricky one. Probably Andrews and Boak there. Although I have BSmith.

 

[Bomber18]

Billings + Oliver V RGray + Sloane

BSmith + Sloane V Ridley + Oliver

 

[quite ironic]

Billings + Oliver V RGray + Sloane

BSmith + Sloane V Ridley + Oliver

Gray & Sloane
Smith & Sloane

Oliver's shoulder concerns me a bit and think Sloane could easily bounce back to a 105 average this year.

 

[Connoisseur]

Billings + Oliver V RGray + Sloane

BSmith + Sloane V Ridley + Oliver

R Gray and R Sloane for the 1st option.
R Gray:
Disposals: 20.90
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 114.89 from 9 (low of 89 and a high of 145, 1/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 21: 83.25 from 12 (low of 37 and a high of 122, 10/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
Contested Possessions: 10.48
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 11: 104.8 from 10 (low of 67 and a high of 145, 4/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 11: 89.55 from 11 (low of 37 and a high of 122, 7/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)
Tackles: 3.19
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 4: 104 from 9 (low of 65 and a high of 145, 3/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 4: 91.42 from 12 (low of 37 and a high of 122, 8/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)
Goals: 1.71
SC Avg when goals equal/exceed 2: 102.11 from 9 (low of 85 and a high of 122, 5/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)
SC Avg when goals below 2: 92.83 from 12 (low of 37 and a high of 145, 6/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)
Time on Ground%: 90.43%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 91%: 95.73 from 15 (low of 61 and a high of 145, 9/15 below 100, 3/15 120+)
SC Avg when time on ground below 91%: 99.5 from 6 (low of 37 and a high of 137, 2/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

I'm not confident on Billings returning to the 90/95+ range as he is heavily dependent on the team's performance but if he continues to be utilised in the midfield then he could be a great selection but he has a tendency to record a poor disposal efficiency in conjunction with recording insufficient contested possessions and tackles due to his outside style.

J Billings:
Wins: 103.8 from 15 (2/15 below 80, 8/15 below 100, 5/15 120+)
2018: 113.25 from 4 (0/4 below 95, 2/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)
2017: 100.36 from 11 (3/11 below 90, 6/11 below 100, 3/120+)

Draws: 85 from 1

Losses: 77.41 from 27 (18/27 below 80, 19/27 below 100, 0/27 120+)
2018: 72.19 from 16 (12/15 below 80, 13/15 below 100)
2017: 85 from 11 (6/11 below 80, 6/11 below 100)

Averaged 22.49 disposals over the past 2 seasons.
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 23: 104.45 from 20
SC Avg when disposals below 23: 71.43 from 23

With the other conundrum I'd lean towards C Oliver and J Ridley.
C Oliver:
Wins: 115.19 from 26 (6/26 below 100, 9/26 120+)
2017: 114.08 from 12
2018: 116.14 from 14

Losses: 110 from 18 (5/18 below 100, 6/18 120+)
2017: 108.3 from 10
2018: 112.13 from 8

2018:
Disposals: 29.77
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 30: 124.67 from 12 (low of 98 and a high of 154, 1/12 below 100, 8/12 120+
SC Avg when disposals below 30: 102.7 from 10 (low of 59 and a high of 143, 5/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)
Contested Possessions: 16.41
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 17: 127.67 from 9 (low of 101 and a high of 154, 7/9 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 17: 105.69 from 13 (low of 59 and a high of 147, 6/13 below 100, 5/13 120+)
Tackles: 6.86
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 7: 127.6 from 10 (low of 89 and a high of 154, 2/10 below 100, 8/10 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 7: 103.92 from 12 (low of 59 and a high of 136, 4/12 below 100, 4/12 120+)
Time on Ground%: 82.91%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 83%: 118.31 from 13 (low of 89 and a high of 154, 2/13 below 100, 7/13 120+)
SC Avg when time on ground below 83%: 109.44 from 9 (low of 59 and a high of 146, 4/9 below 100, 5/9 120+)

Contested possession rate: 54.61%
Disposal Efficiency: 71.91%

Dependent on his game rather than the team's performance and his superb performance in 2018 was partly due to decreasing his handball avg and increasing his kicks (K= 2017=8.05, 2018=10.91, H= 2017=21.91, 2018=18.86) which maintained his consistency from 2017 whilst increasing his ceiling. Only recorded 2 120+ in 2017 which increased to 12 120+ in 2018.

Don't know much about Ridley but would prefer a him or Moore type over B Smith as a stepping stone.

 

[Darkie]

I’d go the first option but think you probably need a restructure to fit in Moore, Walsh, Butters and Duursma

I would err on option two amongst those listed, but I agree with Bomber. I also have Heeney, and Smith on and off.