Opinion Player X vs. Player Y

Darkie

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Billings + Oliver V RGray + Sloane

BSmith + Sloane V Ridley + Oliver
The first one is tough but Billings I like the least of those four, so option two.

Ridley sounds interesting but I gather his JS is far from certain. If that wasn’t an issue option two looks viable, but I’m working on the basis that he’s a strong chance to lose his spot, so option one as it stands. Do you have a view on this?
 
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Geelong
1. Menegola + Hanley + Balta (not on field)
v
2. Menegola + Collins + Moore (on field)
v
3. Billings + Hanley + Moore (on field)
 
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I'm having a hard time splitting Whitfield and Hurn for my D1.

Whitfield I am concerned about him getting more attention and copping a tag. Obviously youth on his side compared to Hurn.

Hurn I'm attracted to because of the new kick in rules potentially boosting his scores. Quite consistent in both games played and weekly scores. I think he has a high ceiling too and is a bit of a champion data stud.

Anyone care to elaborate on their thoughts? I can only select one of them.
 
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I'm having a hard time splitting Whitfield and Hurn for my D1.

Whitfield I am concerned about him getting more attention and copping a tag. Obviously youth on his side compared to Hurn.

Hurn I'm attracted to because of the new kick in rules potentially boosting his scores. Quite consistent in both games played and weekly scores. I think he has a high ceiling too and is a bit of a champion data stud.

Anyone care to elaborate on their thoughts? I can only select one of them.
Whitfield (24 yrs, 114 games) has had more seasons averaging at DEF keeper levels than Hurn (31 yrs, 248 games).
 

Bomber18

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The first one is tough but Billings I like the least of those four, so option two.

Ridley sounds interesting but I gather his JS is far from certain. If that wasn’t an issue option two looks viable, but I’m working on the basis that he’s a strong chance to lose his spot, so option one as it stands. Do you have a view on this?
Thanks @quite ironic for thoughts and @Connoisseur for amazing stats as usual (will look at these more closely later). And darkie too of course!

I don’t quite agree that he’s a strong chance to lose his spot. I think if he continues to perform at current levels, he’ll keep the spot. The others he is competing with are underdone fitness wise and Ridley has had the full preseason.

It’s more a question of if you think Ridley can continue at that 80 rate. I think he can but Moore is clearly ahead so I can’t fit him in without taking a compromise elsewhere. Not sure he’s worth it at this stage. Smith to Ridley might be worth it but I’m thinking that Smith could be a speculative keeper averaging 90 so he gets the nod for me atm
 

Connoisseur

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I'm having a hard time splitting Whitfield and Hurn for my D1.

Whitfield I am concerned about him getting more attention and copping a tag. Obviously youth on his side compared to Hurn.

Hurn I'm attracted to because of the new kick in rules potentially boosting his scores. Quite consistent in both games played and weekly scores. I think he has a high ceiling too and is a bit of a champion data stud.

Anyone care to elaborate on their thoughts? I can only select one of them.
Prefer L Whitfield from that combination as he still should be able to average 95+ and I'd be far more confident in L Whitfield improving his average than S Hurn as I don't see Hurn improving his disposals avg to the 23-25+ range and he is better suited to an upgrade target.

L Whitfield:
Wins: 105 from 22 (8/22 below 100, 4/22 120+)
2017: 97.22 from 9
2018: 110.38 from 13

Losses: 87.75 from 12 (10/12 below 100)
2017: 95.25 from 4
2018: 84 from 8

Disposals: 26.45
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 27: 115.1 from 10 (low of 95 and a high of 141, 1/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 27: 87.17 from 12 (low of 61 and a high of 115, 10/12 below 100)
Kicks: 16.09
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 17: 115.2 from 10 (low of 105 and a high of 141, 2/10 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 17: 87.08 from 12 (low of 61 and a high of 125, 11/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
Marks: 6.59
SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 7: 111.9 from 10 (low of 96 and a high of 140, 1/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
SC Avg when marks below 7: 99.86 from 12 (low of 61 and a high of 141, 10/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
Contested Possessions: 5.77
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 6: 101.18 from 11 (low of 81 and a high of 141, 6/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 6: 98.55 from 11 (low of 61 and a high of 130, 5/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)
Tackles: 3.14
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 4: 97.89 from 9 (low of 64 and a high of 141, 5/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 4: 101.23 from 13 (low of 61 and a high of 130, 6/13 below 100, 1/13 120+)
Time on Ground: 87.64%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 88: 102.07 from 14 (low of 80 and a high of 141, 6/14 below 100, 1/14 120+)
SC Avg when time on ground below 88: 96 from 8 (low of 61 and a high of 130, 5/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)

S Hurn:
Disposals: 21.32
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 22: 109.08 from 12 (low of 83 and a high of 138, 3/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 22: 81.2 from 10 (low of 58 and a high of 101, 9/10 below 100)
Kicks: 17.18
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 18: 109.4 from 10 (low of 83 and a high of 138, 2/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 18: 85.58 from 12 (low of 58 and a high of 116, 10/12 below 100)

Disposal Efficiency: 87.42%
Contested Possession Rate: 23.41%
 

Connoisseur

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Steele slightly. With Geelong's tough start to the season I think Kelly should be an upgrade target as it allows a gauge on Geelong's midfield rotations in conjunction with him being possibly devoid of a high ceiling due to his poor DE% and the other SC relevant cats (eg Danger, Selwood, Ablett,etc). If Steele can maintain his post bye figures in regards to disposals and TOG then I think he could push a 105+ avg.

J Steele:
Pre Bye Averages:
Disposals: 20.75
Tackles: 6
Contested Possessions: 8.92
Time on Ground%: 75.33%
Pre Bye Avg: 81.42 from 12(11/12 below 100)

Post Bye Averages:
Disposals: 27.11
Tackles: 7.56
Contested Possessions: 12
Time on Ground%: 84.67%
Post Bye Avg: 111.78 from 9 (3/9 below 100, 4/9 120+)

T Kelly:
Disposals: 23.09
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 24: 117.11 from 9 (low of 95 and a high of 155, 1/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 24: 76.62 from 13 (low of 44 and a high of 106, 12/13 below 100)
Contested Possessions: 10.64
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 11: 110.5 from 12 (low of 75 and a high of 155, 3/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 11: 72.4 from 10 (low of 44 and a high of 91)
Tackles: 3.55
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 4: 96.82 from 11 (low of 57 and a high of 155, 7/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 4: 89.55 from 11 (low of 44 and a high of 118, 6/11 below 100)
Time on Ground%: 83.95%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 84%: 95.09 from 11 (low of 44 and a high of 118, 5/11 below 100)
SC Avg when time on ground below 84%: 91.27 from 11 (low of 48 and a high of 155, 8/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)

Disposal Efficiency: 64.37%
Contested Possession Rate: 44.32%
 
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The first one is tough but Billings I like the least of those four, so option two.

Ridley sounds interesting but I gather his JS is far from certain. If that wasn’t an issue option two looks viable, but I’m working on the basis that he’s a strong chance to lose his spot, so option one as it stands. Do you have a view on this?
Is Ridley's JS even more questionable than the likes of Clark , Duursma , Hore , McKay , Scrimshaw etc though ?

A lot of reading and they could all be placeholders for a Round or 2 until replaced by returning players.

I guess if selected , just need to cross our fingers that they play enough games to moo , then worry if there are going to be any worthwhile downgrade options.
 
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Libba & Boak

vs

Darcy Moore & Robbie Gray

It's difficult to say if Moore is even more of an injury risk than Libba after Libba did his second ACL and Moore has only been truly injury prone for one season (he has had hamstring injuries in 3/4 years though). That said I feel Libba is more likely to average 85 and we have less evidence for Moore. I prefer Robbie and think he has much more upside than Boak but if Boak gets to play primarily midfield as is being said I think he'll average mid 90's.

First option is a bit safer with the second option having more upside. It's just a question of how many risks are you willing to take with your side and knowing where to play safe.
 

Tamuhawk

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Hawthorn
1. Menegola + Hanley + Balta (not on field)
v
2. Menegola + Collins + Moore (on field)
v
3. Billings + Hanley + Moore (on field)
Menagola + Collins + Moore.
Tim Kelly
Libba & Boak

vs

Darcy Moore & Robbie Gray

It's difficult to say if Moore is even more of an injury risk than Libba after Libba did his second ACL and Moore has only been truly injury prone for one season (he has had hamstring injuries in 3/4 years though). That said I feel Libba is more likely to average 85 and we have less evidence for Moore. I prefer Robbie and think he has much more upside than Boak but if Boak gets to play primarily midfield as is being said I think he'll average mid 90's.

First option is a bit safer with the second option having more upside. It's just a question of how many risks are you willing to take with your side and knowing where to play safe.
Moore + Gray
Macrae & B.Smith
Vs
Brayshaw & Hurn
Macrae & Smith
Billings vs lycett at f3

worpel vs Greene at f4
Billings
&
Worpel
 
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