Apologies for high-jacking your discussion but this one intrigues me ... agree that the new rules may not suit Nank and think RIC experimented a touch in this regard during the JLT. From what I'm reading maybe Balta wasn't good enough for their plans ... got no idea what plan C could be (other than Grigg) ... interested in your thoughts ...
Position Rucks Discussion
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I think the rules changes have been analysed to death in the off season and i don't think any of them will have the impact we think they will. I wouldn't be surprised to see Richmond continue with the set up from last year. Lynch will help as he will do a chunk of ruckwork in the forward half. But besides that I can see Nank rucking for 85% of the game. We only lost 4 regular season games last year. Our structure works.
I don't think the ruckman being allowed to take the ball out the ruck will change that game. They have always been allowed to. They can still be tackled once they've grabbed it. The 6-6-6 won't effect as Nank would be there for 99% of them.
I may be totally off and after 5 weeks it may be a noticeable hole in our side. In that case I imagine we would try Soldo as a 2nd ruck and see how that works.
I don't think the ruckman being allowed to take the ball out the ruck will change that game. They have always been allowed to. They can still be tackled once they've grabbed it. The 6-6-6 won't effect as Nank would be there for 99% of them.
I may be totally off and after 5 weeks it may be a noticeable hole in our side. In that case I imagine we would try Soldo as a 2nd ruck and see how that works.
Witts I like in terms of draw, but the JLT scores in pretty favourable matchups have me a bit spooked.
Nankervis's improvement would seemingly need to stem from increased competitiveness in tap-outs as his other stats are solid and stable. Do expect some increase in his HTAs based on age and another year's experience, but it is hard to guess how much.
It's leap of faith ultimately, I guess.
Fwiw, at this stage I'm trying Nankenstein this year and hoping that taking the other side of the bet on the top two works out ok, knowing the risk if it doesn't.
Nankervis's improvement would seemingly need to stem from increased competitiveness in tap-outs as his other stats are solid and stable. Do expect some increase in his HTAs based on age and another year's experience, but it is hard to guess how much.
It's leap of faith ultimately, I guess.
Fwiw, at this stage I'm trying Nankenstein this year and hoping that taking the other side of the bet on the top two works out ok, knowing the risk if it doesn't.
I have flirted with this combo as well. It would take a bit of a leap of faith but I don’t mind it. The only concern is starting with not only one but two negative POD’s which is not ideal.
Otherwise I think if you started this combo you could easily make up the points if you used the spare change well.
Otherwise I think if you started this combo you could easily make up the points if you used the spare change well.
Goldstein did lose form in 2017 and at the start of 2018, (see below).
heraldsun.com.au ›
February 18, 2018
….....After some knee issues in 2016, Goldstein’s form plummeted again last season in line with his deteriorating mental state........
Goldstein separated from his wife in 2015, and the subsequent discussion surrounding their three children had taken its toll on him, and his football.
By midway through last year (2017), the man considered the best ruckman in the AFL only two seasons before had lost interest in the game.
He was mentally “exhausted”, he said, and had even withdrawn, in some ways, from the team environment.
In his first interview about “the worst two and half years of my life”, Goldstein said the thought of giving AFL away crossed his mind “in my lowest moments” last season.
heraldsun.com.au ›
February 18, 2018
….....After some knee issues in 2016, Goldstein’s form plummeted again last season in line with his deteriorating mental state........
Goldstein separated from his wife in 2015, and the subsequent discussion surrounding their three children had taken its toll on him, and his football.
By midway through last year (2017), the man considered the best ruckman in the AFL only two seasons before had lost interest in the game.
He was mentally “exhausted”, he said, and had even withdrawn, in some ways, from the team environment.
In his first interview about “the worst two and half years of my life”, Goldstein said the thought of giving AFL away crossed his mind “in my lowest moments” last season.
I wouldn’t worry about this. I had a chat to Goldy at the NM season launch a couple weeks ago and he is ready to go, excited to play footy and had an excellent preseason, dropping a few kilos so he can get around the ground more. Can’t see Tom Campbell coming in unless two rucks become the norm. He even joked and said that he would like at least one or two breaks on the interchange. Will have a very high TOG and I am expecting him to severely close the gap on Grawndy.
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Can anyone please tell me what role Jackson Trengove had in the JLT when he wasnt rucking? Is it going to be a 50/50 split of ruck duties and forward with him and English kind of like NicNat and Lycett last season?
Mainly looking for more info regarding English. Last season when he has more than 10 hitouts, 4 of his 5 scores were 75+ so curious how much ruck he might actually play
Mainly looking for more info regarding English. Last season when he has more than 10 hitouts, 4 of his 5 scores were 75+ so curious how much ruck he might actually play
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Not sure what else he might have said though at the season launch - fell like ****e, I'm over it and heads not in it anymore.
Whilst I get his previous struggles over the last couple of years I'm still mindful that he is moving away from the prime years of his footy career whilst others are moving into theirs. The coin looks tempting but would you pick Marc Murphy over Clayton Oliver?
I'm not sure the swan song is there but will keep an open mind going into round 3 if the numbers support.
Whilst I get his previous struggles over the last couple of years I'm still mindful that he is moving away from the prime years of his footy career whilst others are moving into theirs. The coin looks tempting but would you pick Marc Murphy over Clayton Oliver?
I'm not sure the swan song is there but will keep an open mind going into round 3 if the numbers support.
I think there’s two “hope for”’s in picking Goldy and most posts supporting Goldy say exactly that. He needs to step up from last year (when using his full year average not picking out a shorter period) and Gawn or Grundy need to drop 10-15 ppg.
I’m sure Grundy will drop off but not sure Goldy will step it up enough at his age, depending on how the $150k is invested.
On that last point post upgrades it may not matter and that depends on how a lot of x v y’s play out. It also depends on whether Goldy is held for the year.
I’m sure Grundy will drop off but not sure Goldy will step it up enough at his age, depending on how the $150k is invested.
On that last point post upgrades it may not matter and that depends on how a lot of x v y’s play out. It also depends on whether Goldy is held for the year.
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True - I'm not as sold that Grundy drops his average by 15ppg - I know history supports this theory but he really is a class up from other options barring Gawn and looks a very driven player. I think going so close last season will also fuel the fire. The only worry I have is whether the game changes and we see less stoppages but this should reduce numbers across the Ruck position should it happen.
Like I said, if Grundy does start poorly and there are some worrying signs and Goldy steps right up then I'm not concerned about dropping Grundy down for coin, it's going to be really hard though for those on Goldy should he start poorly and need to get up to a Grundy/Gawn should they meet break evens.
I can't spend the coin elsewhere either to really see significant improvement in my team so that's another reason I'm staying with a Grawn combo.
Like I said, if Grundy does start poorly and there are some worrying signs and Goldy steps right up then I'm not concerned about dropping Grundy down for coin, it's going to be really hard though for those on Goldy should he start poorly and need to get up to a Grundy/Gawn should they meet break evens.
I can't spend the coin elsewhere either to really see significant improvement in my team so that's another reason I'm staying with a Grawn combo.
Believe it or not I might start Phillips 
How soon does Kreuzer kick him out though? Needs to give me 6 weeks...
How soon does Kreuzer kick him out though? Needs to give me 6 weeks...
This is ultimately my position as well. If Grundy (or Gawn) comes out averaging 90 and looking terrible and Goldy (or whoever else) comes out averaging 120 and looking great then it's an easy move to go down, if the reverse happens though it's a total restructure to make it happen. My personal feeling is that Grundy and Gawn are more likely to sustain their scoring than they are to drop out of the premium level, Grundy can drop 25 points and still be a premium pick as your worst case unless another ruck changes the other side of the equation.
I also struggle to find a real place to spend the cash also funnily enough.
I also struggle to find a real place to spend the cash also funnily enough.
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How’s the rest of the your side shaping up structure wise?
If you can’t find a better use for the 160k and think there’ll be the at least 30+ points difference between Grundy/Gawn and Goldy that their price warrants then yeah the Grawndy move seems obvious.
It’s probably only one of the folllwing scenarios where you don’t select Grawndy.
1) Being bullish on Goldy thinking he can go 110+ and use the 160k in a better spot (ie Brayshaw -> Macrae for example if that’s why you think).
2) If your R2 is a cheap ruck (Clarke/Fort) and Westhoff/Lycett in the forward line as cover if they miss time.
3) Stepping stone ruckman (Witts/Lobb/English) in the hope Grundy/Gawn have a slow start and you can use the cash generated by one of these three to bridge the difference by 100k+ between the stepping stone and Gawn/Grundy.
One of these 3 opinions probably also probably gets raised if the user doesn’t think the ridiculous high that Grawndy went to last year can be replicated (Grundy possible spike year), injury worries (Grundy), dual ruck scoring concerns (Gawn + Preuss) or the new rule changes negatively effecting ruck scoring (No idea how they’ll effect the scoring, will the rucks max out at 120 averages this year where someone else seems more valuable).
I can’t see any other explanation how you’d not want to start Grawndy but in saying that, there are definitely strong feasible reasons to not start one (more so Grundy than Gawn imo).
If you can’t find a better use for the 160k and think there’ll be the at least 30+ points difference between Grundy/Gawn and Goldy that their price warrants then yeah the Grawndy move seems obvious.
It’s probably only one of the folllwing scenarios where you don’t select Grawndy.
1) Being bullish on Goldy thinking he can go 110+ and use the 160k in a better spot (ie Brayshaw -> Macrae for example if that’s why you think).
2) If your R2 is a cheap ruck (Clarke/Fort) and Westhoff/Lycett in the forward line as cover if they miss time.
3) Stepping stone ruckman (Witts/Lobb/English) in the hope Grundy/Gawn have a slow start and you can use the cash generated by one of these three to bridge the difference by 100k+ between the stepping stone and Gawn/Grundy.
One of these 3 opinions probably also probably gets raised if the user doesn’t think the ridiculous high that Grawndy went to last year can be replicated (Grundy possible spike year), injury worries (Grundy), dual ruck scoring concerns (Gawn + Preuss) or the new rule changes negatively effecting ruck scoring (No idea how they’ll effect the scoring, will the rucks max out at 120 averages this year where someone else seems more valuable).
I can’t see any other explanation how you’d not want to start Grawndy but in saying that, there are definitely strong feasible reasons to not start one (more so Grundy than Gawn imo).
I think part of my thing is I'm preferring taking a shot at guys like Sloane or Brayshaw over paying the premium for Oliver/Kelly types right now and I already have Macrae and Cripps in comfortably anyway so I'm really just spending that money to get better rookies which always seems like a crapshoot anyway, spend the money on Butters and then Gibbons ends up better anyway...
I think the fundamental reason to not go GG is that you firmly believe that at least one or both is going to drop right back into the pack. If you think they are still 120 type scorers, it's really not worth the trades and hassles to go against them. If you don't think at least one of them (and that you know which one) is going to fall hard then I don't see any reason to further when picking the rucks.
My personal favourite alternative is actually Mumford but that requires Clarke or someone else to be playing round 1 and looking really likely to play round 2 so you have the bridge there for while he's suspended. Mumford should improve a lot on his starting price even if he doesn't get near his previous best and that cash generation to me can justify going against the big two, of course you still have to pick the right one to go against!
I can buy Goldy if you think he can get to 115 or you firmly believe that one of the others is going to drop to 105 and Goldy can sustain. I can actually buy either argument but I don't find it nearly as strong as GG being 115+ for the season and I honestly don't think it's as strong as the case for Grundy and Gawn to sustain their scoring levels at the 125 region.
The other option I don't mind is if you think Lycett, Lobb or Westhoff are strong forward options and decide to start them at r2 instead and pick an extra rookie forward to play effectively as the R2 selection. I don't really like any of them so I haven't gone further than the idea but if someone does like them, it's a solid plan, still leaves the picking the right G though!
I think the fundamental reason to not go GG is that you firmly believe that at least one or both is going to drop right back into the pack. If you think they are still 120 type scorers, it's really not worth the trades and hassles to go against them. If you don't think at least one of them (and that you know which one) is going to fall hard then I don't see any reason to further when picking the rucks.
My personal favourite alternative is actually Mumford but that requires Clarke or someone else to be playing round 1 and looking really likely to play round 2 so you have the bridge there for while he's suspended. Mumford should improve a lot on his starting price even if he doesn't get near his previous best and that cash generation to me can justify going against the big two, of course you still have to pick the right one to go against!
I can buy Goldy if you think he can get to 115 or you firmly believe that one of the others is going to drop to 105 and Goldy can sustain. I can actually buy either argument but I don't find it nearly as strong as GG being 115+ for the season and I honestly don't think it's as strong as the case for Grundy and Gawn to sustain their scoring levels at the 125 region.
The other option I don't mind is if you think Lycett, Lobb or Westhoff are strong forward options and decide to start them at r2 instead and pick an extra rookie forward to play effectively as the R2 selection. I don't really like any of them so I haven't gone further than the idea but if someone does like them, it's a solid plan, still leaves the picking the right G though!
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Another option is to select Westhoff in the ruck and treat Setterfield as a ruck rookie, and wait to see how Grundy goes.
I think Grundy and Gawn will remain as the top 2 rucks, but 1.4 mill is a lot of cap space to spend. There's just no way Grundy can maintain a 130 average in my opinion, even ignoring his toe injury. The 150k saved can turn a midpricer like Rocky or Crouch into a genuine premium.
I'm still tossing up whether to do this or just start B.Crouch, trade him out in Round 6 when he inevitably gets injured and hope he's done enough to swap for a premium.
I think Grundy and Gawn will remain as the top 2 rucks, but 1.4 mill is a lot of cap space to spend. There's just no way Grundy can maintain a 130 average in my opinion, even ignoring his toe injury. The 150k saved can turn a midpricer like Rocky or Crouch into a genuine premium.
I'm still tossing up whether to do this or just start B.Crouch, trade him out in Round 6 when he inevitably gets injured and hope he's done enough to swap for a premium.