Position Rucks Discussion

[quite ironic]

I think part of my thing is I'm preferring taking a shot at guys like Sloane or Brayshaw over paying the premium for Oliver/Kelly types right now and I already have Macrae and Cripps in comfortably anyway so I'm really just spending that money to get better rookies which always seems like a crapshoot anyway, spend the money on Butters and then Gibbons ends up better anyway...

I think the fundamental reason to not go GG is that you firmly believe that at least one or both is going to drop right back into the pack. If you think they are still 120 type scorers, it's really not worth the trades and hassles to go against them. If you don't think at least one of them (and that you know which one) is going to fall hard then I don't see any reason to further when picking the rucks.

My personal favourite alternative is actually Mumford but that requires Clarke or someone else to be playing round 1 and looking really likely to play round 2 so you have the bridge there for while he's suspended. Mumford should improve a lot on his starting price even if he doesn't get near his previous best and that cash generation to me can justify going against the big two, of course you still have to pick the right one to go against!

I can buy Goldy if you think he can get to 115 or you firmly believe that one of the others is going to drop to 105 and Goldy can sustain. I can actually buy either argument but I don't find it nearly as strong as GG being 115+ for the season and I honestly don't think it's as strong as the case for Grundy and Gawn to sustain their scoring levels at the 125 region.

The other option I don't mind is if you think Lycett, Lobb or Westhoff are strong forward options and decide to start them at r2 instead and pick an extra rookie forward to play effectively as the R2 selection. I don't really like any of them so I haven't gone further than the idea but if someone does like them, it's a solid plan, still leaves the picking the right G though!

What I personally think as a current Goldy owner is he can go 110 and I see Grundy falling back to 115-120. If there is only 10 points difference and you can spend the extra 100k you’ve basically won out of the move wisely it’s as good as a win. Grundy is priced 32 points on average higher than Goldy so if he can drag it back to a 10 point gap I’d see that as half way to a win. Using the money saved is the other battle though.

It could mean you get in a Smith instead of Collins who could average 25 points higher and get you to a premium D4 relatively quickly. But that’s the risks taken.

Do you think it would be a waste starting Mumford at R3, Bines F8, Westhoff R2 and then by round 3 bringing on Mumford?

Conversely there is a bit of a gap there where you could start Grundy or Gawn R1, Westhoff R2, Clarke/Fort R3 (move them on if they play and bring Westhoff down to F2) and Bines F8 as a floating donut...

Wait and see how Mumford plays rounds 3 and 4 and trade him in before he rises in price after round 4 for a rookie or Clarke/Fort (if they’re not playing at that point) and move Westhoff down to F2 and Bines becomes floating donut at R3.

The problem in that scenario is I doubt Clarke/Fort play enough to rise at all and you have to find 180k to get up to Mumford at the end of Round 4 via one of those players.

 

[wogitalia]

What I personally think as a current Goldy owner is he can go 110 and I see Grundy falling back to 115-120. If there is only 10 points difference and you can spend the extra 100k you’ve basically won out of the move wisely it’s as good as a win. Grundy is priced 32 points on average higher than Goldy so if he can drag it back to a 10 point gap I’d see that as half way to a win. Using the money saved is the other battle though.

It could mean you get in a Smith instead of Collins who could average 25 points higher and get you to a premium D4 relatively quickly. But that’s the risks taken.

Do you think it would be a waste starting Mumford at R3, Bines F8, Westhoff R2 and then by round 3 bringing on Mumford?

Conversely there is a bit of a gap there where you could start Grundy or Gawn R1, Westhoff R2, Clarke/Fort R3 (move them on if they play and bring Westhoff down to F2) and Bines F8 as a floating donut...

Wait and see how Mumford plays rounds 3 and 4 and trade him in before he rises in price after round 4 for a rookie or Clarke/Fort (if they’re not playing at that point) and move Westhoff down to F2 and Bines becomes floating donut at R3.

The problem in that scenario is I doubt Clarke/Fort play enough to rise at all and you have to find 180k to get up to Mumford at the end of Round 4 via one of those players.

I really don't like Westhoff as a pick but, putting that aside, it's the other option if there isn't a playing ruck option to bridge to Mumford.

I'm not sold on Mumford as a trade target, I hate trading in a midprice pick unless I think they can genuinely be a premium, especially ones with durability records that are basically a trainwreck and has had a year out of the game at the wrong age to be doing that.

The problem with your Grundy/Goldstein battle, imo, is you haven't factored in the 1.5 trades that are going to be required to get Grundy into your side once that gap is closed. Depending how much you value a trade, the question is still whether you're even ahead. Say you do it in round 10, that's 100 points you've lost that have to be made up elsewhere and you're down the trade for Goldy to Grundy and barring special price scenarios, you're still got find the cash to upgrade as well which will then cost you elsewhere.

Ultimately though if you do see Goldy improving and Grundy collapsing and you think you can use that money to generate a lot of points then you'd be silly to not go down that path. This game is pretty much about getting your assumptions right and backing them in, of course when your assumption is going against the vast majority of coaches, you better be damn sure it's going to be right

Like even if I didn't think Danger was a good pick and I had a strong feeling, it's just not worth the risk to go against him. The risk reward just can't match the cost if you're wrong.

 

[quite ironic]

I really don't like Westhoff as a pick but, putting that aside, it's the other option if there isn't a playing ruck option to bridge to Mumford.

I'm not sold on Mumford as a trade target, I hate trading in a midprice pick unless I think they can genuinely be a premium, especially ones with durability records that are basically a trainwreck and has had a year out of the game at the wrong age to be doing that.

The problem with your Grundy/Goldstein battle, imo, is you haven't factored in the 1.5 trades that are going to be required to get Grundy into your side once that gap is closed. Depending how much you value a trade, the question is still whether you're even ahead. Say you do it in round 10, that's 100 points you've lost that have to be made up elsewhere and you're down the trade for Goldy to Grundy and barring special price scenarios, you're still got find the cash to upgrade as well which will then cost you elsewhere.

Ultimately though if you do see Goldy improving and Grundy collapsing and you think you can use that money to generate a lot of points then you'd be silly to not go down that path. This game is pretty much about getting your assumptions right and backing them in, of course when your assumption is going against the vast majority of coaches, you better be damn sure it's going to be right

Like even if I didn't think Danger was a good pick and I had a strong feeling, it's just not worth the risk to go against him. The risk reward just can't match the cost if you're wrong.

Same I think Westhoff’s scoring without the rucking role will decline and he’s about 75k overpriced.

That’s why it’s bloody annoying Mumford is playing round 1 or 2.

If Clarke can play rounds 1-4 that would be a near godsend to getting Mumford in at round 4 and really have boosted the team in all the other lines.

Yeah agreed on Danger no way being a forward and lack of options in that line to go against him. If we had a couple other good picks 450-550 that looked like good easy picks like Heeney it would be plausible to not select Danger but there’s no way right now.

With Grundy I think 115-120 vs Goldy’s 110 is the average across the season and actually expecting Grundy to start a bit slower and finish with a bang and Goldy to start strong and possibly taper off at the end.

I could see them being within 40k of each other it’s all just assumptions but I think there’ll be a point when I can basically do a straight swap and if Grundy gets another injury, doesn’t live up to last years spike etc There’s always the chance I just run with Goldy all year and take the loss on it.

If Grundy and Goldy play the same games all year and Grundy goes 120 and Goldy goes 110 I see that as a win because I’m confident the extra 160k picked up outweighs the 200-220 points lost on the Grundy vs Goldy.

For example not factoring in other trades alongside this it could see B.Crouch type pick up to a Cogs who goes at 20 points more for the season (picking up a 220 point win with the Goldy move (not factoring in any trade that would’ve been done with Crouch)) and also avoids the injury risk of those mid pricers like B.Crouch, Rocky, Libba.

That’s my thinking and all assumption but I think Goldy is more selected as the premium to be close enough to Grundy‘s scoring that a trade between the two never happens. If I’m looking to get Grundy in or want a good look at him early I’d rather do the English stepping stone move or Westhoff (although I don’t rate him or Lycett as viable Forward options anyway) at R2.

 

[Hondo]

Another option is to select Westhoff in the ruck and treat Setterfield as a ruck rookie, and wait to see how Grundy goes.

I think Grundy and Gawn will remain as the top 2 rucks, but 1.4 mill is a lot of cap space to spend. There's just no way Grundy can maintain a 130 average in my opinion, even ignoring his toe injury. The 150k saved can turn a midpricer like Rocky or Crouch into a genuine premium.

I'm still tossing up whether to do this or just start B.Crouch, trade him out in Round 6 when he inevitably gets injured and hope he's done enough to swap for a premium.

It’s unlikely Brouch will lose money and very liklely he will make $100k and most of the mid premiums drop into the $500ks. That’s how the game is wired. All the premiums lose money, well most do. Grundy will have a lot of mates when he sheds cash.

 

[Hondo]

Same I think Westhoff’s scoring without the rucking role will decline and he’s about 75k overpriced.

That’s why it’s bloody annoying Mumford is playing round 1 or 2.

If Clarke can play rounds 1-4 that would be a near godsend to getting Mumford in at round 4 and really have boosted the team in all the other lines.

Yeah agreed on Danger no way being a forward and lack of options in that line to go against him. If we had a couple other good picks 450-550 that looked like good easy picks like Heeney it would be plausible to not select Danger but there’s no way right now.

With Grundy I think 115-120 vs Goldy’s 110 is the average across the season and actually expecting Grundy to start a bit slower and finish with a bang and Goldy to start strong and possibly taper off at the end.

I could see them being within 40k of each other it’s all just assumptions but I think there’ll be a point when I can basically do a straight swap and if Grundy gets another injury, doesn’t live up to last years spike etc There’s always the chance I just run with Goldy all year and take the loss on it.

If Grundy and Goldy play the same games all year and Grundy goes 120 and Goldy goes 110 I see that as a win because I’m confident the extra 160k picked up outweighs the 200-220 points lost on the Grundy vs Goldy.

For example not factoring in other trades alongside this it could see B.Crouch type pick up to a Cogs who goes at 20 points more for the season (picking up a 220 point win with the Goldy move (not factoring in any trade that would’ve been done with Crouch)) and also avoids the injury risk of those mid pricers like B.Crouch, Rocky, Libba.

That’s my thinking and all assumption but I think Goldy is more selected as the premium to be close enough to Grundy‘s scoring that a trade between the two never happens. If I’m looking to get Grundy in or want a good look at him early I’d rather do the English stepping stone move or Westhoff (although I don’t rate him or Lycett as viable Forward options anyway) at R2.

With the Goldy over Grundy you risk hiding behind the couch each round hoping this gap closes each week. I can’t stand playing this game with a stressful x v y you sweat on each and every round.

I did it last year until R21 after copping a 154 v 61 in the first week of finals. Goldy had held his own until then, after a terrible start, until the dam broke on me. I swapped to Grundy and I think he went over 130 every week I had him after that.

 

[quite ironic]

With the Goldy over Grundy you risk hiding behind the couch each round hoping this gap closes each week. I can’t stand playing this game with a stressful x v y you sweat on each and every round.

I did it last year until R21 after copping a 154 v 61 in the first week of finals. Goldy had held his own until then, after a terrible start, until the dam broke on me. I swapped to Grundy and I think he went over 130 every week I had him after that.

I just don’t trust Grundy to go 120+ let alone the 130 he is priced at.

Goldy has some very easy games first up too and loves playing Etihad (7 of his first 11 there).


In saying that I can easily have 160k spare pending Macrae to Sloane so it’s jsut weighing up that battle of Macrae who I’m really confident in, Sloane and Goldy who im also confident in but to a lesser extent vs Grundy who I’m not confident in but still obviously think it’s possible he could go 125+

 

[blue dreamer]

Really early in this thread I confidently stated that I would have Grundy, Mummy, R/F Rookie and Hoff in the fwd line.

Then Mummy reminded me of his risk of report along with injury risk and missing first two games.

So, I currently have Grundy, Goldy, Bines and Hoff at F2.

I also have little cash if my current rookies are not named (only 4.2k) so am thinking if I need to free up some cash for more expensive rooks come selection time Goldy as last in would be first out then options go back to Mummy as first stated or others that may have different degrees of viability, English, Phillips, Clarke, Pierce.

I am almost sure that Goldy will have to go and will spend the rest of the time looking at these options, Phillips may be left out purely because I will nit be in a position to do something Thursday night when the balance of the teams drop but the others named are well th some research and consideration in my book.

 

[Beijing_Sting]

I voted, Gawn, Goldy and Grundy as I can't decide yet. I mean ... Grundy's JLT form... I mean C'mon!

 

[Leroy]

I also have little cash if my current rookies are not named (only 4.2k) so am thinking if I need to free up some cash for more expensive rooks come selection time Goldy as last in would be first out then options go back to Mummy as first stated or others that may have different degrees of viability, English, Phillips, Clarke, Pierce.

I am almost sure that Goldy will have to go and will spend the rest of the time looking at these options, Phillips may be left out purely because I will nit be in a position to do something Thursday night when the balance of the teams drop but the others named are well th some research and consideration in my book.

I'm in a similar position to the second half of this: currently English at R2 and not a lot of budget to move.
I think Phillips could actually be a decent mid-price ruck pick at only $278k. Big, mature footballer, scored a 60 against Grundy off 4 possession s in JLT2. My only worry is that if Kreuzer is fit by R4 or 5 he is out and you're stuck. The ruck draw for these guys looks like this off the bat:

English: Sinclair (H), McEvoy (A), Witts (H), Grundy (A), Kreuzer/Phillips (H), Darcy (A), Nank (H), Stef (H) - 2 games out of Melbourne*
Phillips: Nank (H), Ryder/Lycett (A), Sinclair (H), Witts (A), English (A), McEvoy (A), Goldy (H), Grundy (H) - 3 games out of Melbourne
Pierce: Witts (H), BellC (A), Darcy (A), McEvoy (H), Gawn (A), Sauce (H), Simpson (A), Hickey/Vardy (H) - 2 games out of Melbourne

*R8 against the Lions is in Ballarat

The Dogs don't leave the MCG/Docklands until R6 against Freo. Phillips probably has the easiest go at it until R7 and 8, right when you'd want to trade him. English could chuck out a 30 against Grundy in R4 but other than that should be able to hit 70s playing at home against interstate teams right ?

Pierce seems such an unknown quantity I'm loathe to go there, so unless Clarke is named, English it is I think.

 

[Pieman17]

I'm in a similar position to the second half of this: currently English at R2 and not a lot of budget to move.
I think Phillips could actually be a decent mid-price ruck pick at only $278k. Big, mature footballer, scored a 60 against Grundy off 4 possession s in JLT2. My only worry is that if Kreuzer is fit by R4 or 5 he is out and you're stuck. The ruck draw for these guys looks like this off the bat:

English: Sinclair (H), McEvoy (A), Witts (H), Grundy (A), Kreuzer/Phillips (H), Darcy (A), Nank (H), Stef (H) - 2 games out of Melbourne*
Phillips: Nank (H), Ryder/Lycett (A), Sinclair (H), Witts (A), English (A), McEvoy (A), Goldy (H), Grundy (H) - 3 games out of Melbourne
Pierce: Witts (H), BellC (A), Darcy (A), McEvoy (H), Gawn (A), Sauce (H), Simpson (A), Hickey/Vardy (H) - 2 games out of Melbourne

*R8 against the Lions is in Ballarat

The Dogs don't leave the MCG/Docklands until R6 against Freo. Phillips probably has the easiest go at it until R7 and 8, right when you'd want to trade him. English could chuck out a 30 against Grundy in R4 but other than that should be able to hit 70s playing at home against interstate teams right ?

Pierce seems such an unknown quantity I'm loathe to go there, so unless Clarke is named, English it is I think.

Who’s R1?

Goldy?

 

[Leroy]

Who’s R1?

Goldy?

At the moment yes but I'm wavering haha
Could be Gawn by Thursday night as I'm picking Grundy for a slow start and trade in.

It looks crazy banking on an R2 like English, but priced at 400k below Grundy he is effectively given an 80ppg head start to achieve the same return, which seems more than achievable.

 

[Dustman]

Never struggled with ruck decisions like this before. Wanna go G/G but so much cash,just seems to make other lines look weak,leading to mid price madness. Currently have English r2 and Clarke r3,and was gunna burn a trade from English to Mummy in r3 or 4. If Clarke plays ,I’d probably start him over English anyway. What a shame Fort didn’t produce.The other problem is rookie cash generation,gonna be a few slow burners this year,making upgrades tricky. Set and forget is so much more relaxing.

 

[freowho]

Really early in this thread I confidently stated that I would have Grundy, Mummy, R/F Rookie and Hoff in the fwd line.

Then Mummy reminded me of his risk of report along with injury risk and missing first two games.

So, I currently have Grundy, Goldy, Bines and Hoff at F2.

I also have little cash if my current rookies are not named (only 4.2k) so am thinking if I need to free up some cash for more expensive rooks come selection time Goldy as last in would be first out then options go back to Mummy as first stated or others that may have different degrees of viability, English, Phillips, Clarke, Pierce.

I am almost sure that Goldy will have to go and will spend the rest of the time looking at these options, Phillips may be left out purely because I will nit be in a position to do something Thursday night when the balance of the teams drop but the others named are well th some research and consideration in my book.

I would downgrade Hoff and cross that bridge if it happens. He might not be needed and might be $100k cheaper if it does.

 

[Pieman17]

I’m calling out the people who aren’t starting Gawn and/or Grundy.

Who are you starting in their place and what strategy do you have to bring them in ?

I’m looking at English and Clarke/Pierce (assuming they are all named) but starting to get scared that I will have to watch all Pies and Dees games from behind the couch.

 

[Pieman17]

At the moment yes but I'm wavering haha
Could be Gawn by Thursday night as I'm picking Grundy for a slow start and trade in.

It looks crazy banking on an R2 like English, but priced at 400k below Grundy he is effectively given an 80ppg head start to achieve the same return, which seems more than achievable.

I think English will score decently, he’s in my team currently. I’m getting scared of the possibility that Grundy and Gawn average 125 plus early on.

 

[Zagbag]

I’m calling out the people who aren’t starting Gawn and/or Grundy.

Who are you starting in their place and what strategy do you have to bring them in ?

I’m looking at English and Clarke/Pierce (assuming they are all named) but starting to get scared that I will have to watch all Pies and Dees games from behind the couch.

I have finally landed upon the correct starting Ruck combination. People will shudder at the ingenuity of it, and declare zagbag the interim 2019 Supercoach champion.

 

[Pieman17]

I have finally landed upon the correct starting Ruck combination. People will shudder at the ingenuity of it, and declare zagbag the interim 2019 Supercoach champion.

I hope it doesn’t include Grundy or Gawn.

 

[Zagbag]

I hope it doesn’t include Grundy or Gawn.

No Grundy, No Gawn.

 

[Leroy]

I think English will score decently, he’s in my team currently. I’m getting scared of the possibility that Grundy and Gawn average 125 plus early on.

Fear like that is rational I think
I really think given the slower preseason and huge TOG from 2018 that Grundy will start slower.
People seem to forget that only 3 years ago Goldy was starting at $695k coming off a 128. He never made it back there.
As I said before, Gawn has me more worried!

 

[Rowsus]

No Grundy, No Gawn.

Welcome to the dark side!