Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[TommyGobbler]

Hey Row,

I'm wondering if you have any stats available that show what affect the new kick in rule has had? Are players who play on from kick ins being rewarded?

As a follow on, do you have stats on Sydney kick in numbers by player? I'm wondering what affect McVeigh's injury will have. Will Lloyd take more kick ins? Based on question 1, does that mean he will score even more now?

Cheers

 

[Bermi]

Hi Rowsus,

the early part of the season is about making money, so is it too early to be trading out Rookies who are not playing, or who are slow burners, for other Rookies on the bubble?

If Hore doesn't play again this week, is it a good move to get in Lockart?
and/or
Gibbons, who is making money very slowly, trade him for C Wagner?

I don't have other trade concerns this week so far and I have already traded twice.

Your thoughts highly appreciated.

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hello again Row,

I think I am going to dump Yeo. Not sure who to yet but he was my one real POD so I want keep it PODish if possible.

Too late for Cunners to break out? I remember speaking to you a few years back and we flagged him as a potential break out but his TOG just never really got close to 80. To start the year he is at 82%.

Any point looking at J Kelly earlier? I know he will most likely drop in price so would probably be paying overs now but assuming no further injuries he will end up in my team at some point.

Bont / Sloane / Lloyd are other safer options

Any thoughts?

 

[Santoz]

Hello again Row,

I think I am going to dump Yeo. Not sure who to yet but he was my one real POD so I want keep it PODish if possible.

Too late for Cunners to break out? I remember speaking to you a few years back and we flagged him as a potential break out but his TOG just never really got close to 80. To start the year he is at 82%.

Any point looking at J Kelly earlier? I know he will most likely drop in price so would probably be paying overs now but assuming no further injuries he will end up in my team at some point.

Bont / Sloane / Lloyd are other safer options

Any thoughts?

I'm a Yeo owner too. Why are you giving up on him?

 

[Blue Dragons]

I'm a Yeo owner too. Why are you giving up on him?

It's not so much his actual scores, even though last year he only twice scored worse than his 3 scores this year, it's moreso a visual thing watching him. Doesn't seem to be tackling as much, seems to be hanging around the packs and not getting it himself as much, averaging far less metres gained per game.

Having said that I fell for the Heeney injury last week and that hurt so I could very well save a trade but if I do trade I think it is better to do it while he still has some value.

 

[Darkie]

Hi Row, I've enjoyed reading your latest pieces. I thought I would check your thoughts on a couple of things:

- How appealing/important is trading in Libba this round? I haven't had an obvious avenue to do so, without cutting Cousins or upgrading from someone like Atkins or Scott.

- Does Fyfe missing change this at all?

If it makes a difference, my mids are Neale, Cripps, M Crouch, Fyfe, Rocky, Walsh, Cousins, Constable (Butters, Scott, Atkins). I have $189k in cash and will likely trade in Mummy and Stack next week for Balta and one other.

 

[Rowsus]

Hoping you'll like this question Rowsus...

You love a 'Dimma' gambit - trading out an overpriced player that is seen as a must have (mods can move this question to that thread if it's better there).

The question is: How far overpriced compared to what a player will score for the remainder of the season is a good point for trading them out? Does a players 'Captainability' effect this?

I'll probably get pilloried for this, but if Neale goes big against the Dons this week he could be nearly $700k by R6 or 7. I'm considering trading him down to a slow starting premo and unlocking nearly 200k of value, which is enough to upgrade a rookie straight from the bench to another premo, perhaps on the forward line.

Two for the price of one, without culling a high-scoring on-field rookie... how much does Neale need to drop in price to make trading him back in after his bye worth the hassle?

Hi Leroy,
first of all, let me say this is different to the Dimma Gambit in one very important way. Dimma did it with Cloke, who he always had in the back of his mind might need upgrading. ie Cloke was a temporary citizen in Dimma's team. You propose to do it with Neale, who when selected, was intended to be a permanent part of your team. That doesn't preclude you doing it with Neale, but it does make the circumstances different.
I have actually pulled similar moves to what you are proposing each of the past 3 seasons. When doing it with an intended permanent member, you need to be getting "2 for 1". You need to be trading out one Premium, and trading in two, otherwise, I think you just keep that high priced player. As a general rule of thumb, I think the player needs to be overpriced by at least 18-20+, from what you think he'll score from here. I also prefer to do it, when the player has a high B/E, preferably 180+. That way, if you regret your decision, you can work towards reversing the poor trade, knowing the traded out player is at least getting cheaper.

The simple answer is yes. If this leaves your Captain loopholing choices stretched, you shouldn't do it. You need to good loophole options, and preferably three. You need to look at the Draw, and see if those other Captain options in your team have opponents you are happy to roll the dice on them with. If not, and the high priced player looks clearly your strongest option, you should probably hold him.

Trying to plan ahead how much Neale might need to drop in price, to trade him back in is a little dangerous, but also unnecessary. It's dangerous, because you can become locked on that happening, to the exclusion of other potentially better options. It's unnecessary, as you are just best to look at which player looks the best potential trade in at that time, rather then mentally committing to Neale. Keep in mind, for Neale to drop a good to reasonable amount, he needs to score poorishly for a stretch, or have bad injury score. Will you want to trade him in, while he's in a poor run, and are you sure he'll turn it around if it happens?

It's generally not a move I'd be planning too far ahead, rather than just keep an eye on the potential for it to happen.
Good luck if you try it. It worked well for me in 2 out of the 3 years, but blew up on me the other occassion!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rows,

What are your plans for Darling and English?
Darling I know as a KPP we usually have to enjoy the ride and he could come out and kick 6 this week.
English just seems to be fair and not making any cash.
I have no idea what to do with them.

Cheers

Hey Slam,
I'd like them both to be sitting around 10/game higher, then there'd be no problem!
Darling, as you indicated, just seems to come with the KPF territory. I will be looking to see if JJK is making it too hard for Darling, though.
English is going to be a bigger problem. It's not an easy upgrade, and he's making no money. For the moment, I will just ride him out, and keep a very close eye out for an escape route!
In other words, I'm just going to sit tight, for now.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus

Would love to get your thoughts on the guys that have started well and appear “must haves”.

Guys like Lloyd and Neale for example have scored well above their expectations and their price points in the first 3 rounds.

The questions I have are :
1. How can we identify whether this is a hot patch to start the year or the ‘new norm’. Macrae and Dusty come to mind as players I missed that have really hurt my season.

2. Should we be desperately looking to bring these guys in ASAP or hold out for a drop in price.

One more thing to add, is it worthwhile moving any of Pendles,Andrews,Dunkley out to jump on this sort of players ?


Cheers Pieman

Hey Pieman,
I'm glad you must haves in "", it's a phrase that is used way too much, particularly in the first half of the season.
I'm sure you have seen the Daedalus and Sisyphus threads. 3 Rounds is one short of where I prefer to start that sort of analysis, but let's look at Neale and Lloyd anyway.

Neale $646,300, priced to score 127, best season 22/113, 2018 was 22/112, 135 games coming into his 8th season tends to indicate he has set his scoring pattern. I'm not a big believer in changing clubs altering a players scoring profile too much, however, he might be open to a spike season. Not something you generally want to bet on though. He looks a solid 112-114 player on his history, so he is at least leaning against Sisyphus' Rock. With his expected price rise this week, he'll definitely be pushing the Rock from next week. Keep in mind, that last season Macrae was a good trade in up until about Round 6 or 7, and if you traded him after that time, you got a disappointing return for what you paid, even though there were some good scores to come! With Macrae in mind, this week might be the last opportunuty to get Neale at a comfortable price, for quite a few Rounds!

Lloyd $620,400, priced to score 122, best season was last season 22/112, 115 games coming into his 6th season is just outside a break out zone, so any significant improvement is likely to be a spike. It's hard to know if last years numbers, where he jumped 25/game, are his new norm, or will he have a correction, even if minor, like nearly every other player that jumped 20+ into the 110+ area. He's not quite pushing the Rock, but if he maintains his current form, he will be in 2 or 3 Rounds.

If you are keen to start moving on one, or the other, this week, it would seem Neale has a window of opportunity that closes this week. We don't know when it will re-open again. Lloyds window will still be open, probably, for 2 or 3 more weeks.
I might be biased in my opinions, but ...... Pendles is a 105 proposition these days, unless injuries cause a structure change. I'd be happy to use him to get Neale. Andrews is in my team, I think he should stay in yours. He'll throw in the odd poor score, but in general, I think he can be a solid D4/5. Dunkley isn't playing the SC friendly role, so far, but Bevo being Bevo, that can change from week to week. What does look likely, is that he is being adversely affected by Libba's good form. I'd be happy to move Dunkley to get one of these two players, too.
It's aggressive, but sometimes, that is what is neeeded.
Good luck!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

Keen to get your thoughts on Rowan Marshall @ 340k. Scores or 114 & 111 (plus a 112 in JLT) playing as the #1 ruck. Is he a potential top 6 forward or is there too much risk?

My concerns are that he has only played 14 games in his career and Longer could potentially come back. Cheers

Hey TG,
$340k is an awkward price. He needs to be a Keeper at that price. He has only played against poor or easy Rucks in his 2 season games, and his JLT2 game (Ruck opponents so far: English, Bellchambers, Lobb). As you mentioned, he also has the possibility of Longer spoiling his party. Marshall looks really tempting, but I fear he could end up being a trap. I'd like to take the punt on him too, but no. His Fwd only status makes it too hard.

 

[Rowsus]

I'm assuming when you get to the mids you'll caution Rockliff owners with the tale of Prometheus the trickster Rowsus, except it's the owners that suffer the fate

But which West Coast player is going to eat Rocky's liver daily?!

Greek mythologists will get it!

 

[Rowsus]

Not to mention Damocles and the sword.
To be a successful coach now you have to be a Greek mythology expert

Okay, it's a stretch, but does Longmire have long hair on his lower, lower middle back?

 

[Rowsus]

What about all those sweetly singing SuperCoach Sirens luring those who can’t resist their call to their doom?

...... that only affect Freo players!

Dockers ....... seafaring .......

 

[Rowsus]

Daedalus was also the master builder - is that what you have in mind?

The guy built the labyrinth, so he probably shames most of todays Master Builders!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

Keen to get your thoughts on a possible Goldy to Grundy trade.

Despite Goldys good score on the weekend, I feel like the longer I hold Goldy the more points I'll be leaking.

I was hoping Grundy would start slow due to preseason injury, but back to back 130's and a matchup V Bulldogs this week might be forcing my hand.

Is it better to pull the trigger now? Or from an overall perspective, is my best bet to hold Goldy and just hope Grundy puts in a few stinkers?

An interesting point to note was mentioned by another poster the other day regarding Goldy’s upcoming fixture:

6 of his next 8 at Marvel.

Adelaide: Possibly no Jacobs, Vs O’Brien
Essendon: weak rucks
Port: Vs Lycett
Carlton: weak rucks
Geelong: weak rucks
Sydney: Vs Sinclair
Bulldogs: weak rucks
Richmond: Vs Nank

Hey TG,
I tend to agree with qi.
Goldy's Draw doesn't look too bad in the coming weeks.
Also, I think 3 weeks is too soon to abandon your plan on waiting on Grundy for to drop in price.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

I'm wondering if you have any stats available that show what affect the new kick in rule has had? Are players who play on from kick ins being rewarded?

As a follow on, do you have stats on Sydney kick in numbers by player? I'm wondering what affect McVeigh's injury will have. Will Lloyd take more kick ins? Based on question 1, does that mean he will score even more now?

Cheers

Hey TG,
no, unfortunately I don't have those stats.
I'm sure, just like the H2A's from 3 season's ago, they will eventually become "more public".

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

the early part of the season is about making money, so is it too early to be trading out Rookies who are not playing, or who are slow burners, for other Rookies on the bubble?

If Hore doesn't play again this week, is it a good move to get in Lockart?
and/or
Gibbons, who is making money very slowly, trade him for C Wagner?

I don't have other trade concerns this week so far and I have already traded twice.

Your thoughts highly appreciated.

Hi Bermi,
the reason you are struggling with this question is, it's a really tough question, that we all face!
I think people are generally too quick to dump some Rookies. Quite often it only takes a good half of football, and they are generating cash again!
Lockhart has only scored 32 and 57, and would seem to have questionable JS. Even if he stays in the team, he looks like only making $100-120k. It's not top shelf, and while better than how Hore looks, I'm not sure I'd burn a trade for that sort of return.
Wagner has gone 61, DNP, 65 so looks a better money making prospect than Lockhart, but his JS too, is questionable. Melbourne have players to come back, and I don't think he is best 22. If Gibbons picked this week, I think I'd just stick with him (I don't have him), if he's not, it's nearly a flip of the coin if it is worth the trade, or not. Generally, if you are not sure, don't trade!

 

[Rowsus]

Hello again Row,

I think I am going to dump Yeo. Not sure who to yet but he was my one real POD so I want keep it PODish if possible.

Too late for Cunners to break out? I remember speaking to you a few years back and we flagged him as a potential break out but his TOG just never really got close to 80. To start the year he is at 82%.

Any point looking at J Kelly earlier? I know he will most likely drop in price so would probably be paying overs now but assuming no further injuries he will end up in my team at some point.

Bont / Sloane / Lloyd are other safer options

Any thoughts?

I'm a Yeo owner too. Why are you giving up on him?

It's not so much his actual scores, even though last year he only twice scored worse than his 3 scores this year, it's moreso a visual thing watching him. Doesn't seem to be tackling as much, seems to be hanging around the packs and not getting it himself as much, averaging far less metres gained per game.

Having said that I fell for the Heeney injury last week and that hurt so I could very well save a trade but if I do trade I think it is better to do it while he still has some value.

Hi again, BD.
He's certainly looking a regrettable choice. The emergence of Sheed to a more prominent role probably hasn't helped Yeo.
So far in 3 games his stats compared to last years averages: Tackles down from 6.7 to 3.0, RB & I50's combined down from 7.2 to 5.0, Frees for down from 1.5 to 1.0, CP's down from 12.4 to 10.3, Goal assists down from 0.6 to 0.0, TOG% down from 87% to 82%, DE% down from 64% to 62%, Frees against up from 2.1 to 3.0, Clangers up 4.8 to 6.0.
They're all small changes, but add up to a decent difference in SC score. My problem with Yeo is, he doesn't have much of a history, scoring at an acceptable Mid level. Coming into his 8th season he had played 132 games, for his only seasons above 82 being 21/102 and 22/108, admittedly his last 2 seasons, but far from rock solid Premium history. With his big B/E you need to be rid of him this week, or probably commit to holding him. Given his shallow history, I'd probably dump him for someone with a bit more of a solid history.
I wouldn't touch Cunnington with a 10 foot pole. We know his history, and he'd need to record a spike season to be a good pick from here. Never back someone to record a spike season! If you think breakouts are hard to pick, spikes are a lot harder!
Good luck, I hope it works out!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Row, I've enjoyed reading your latest pieces. I thought I would check your thoughts on a couple of things:

- How appealing/important is trading in Libba this round? I haven't had an obvious avenue to do so, without cutting Cousins or upgrading from someone like Atkins or Scott.

- Does Fyfe missing change this at all?

If it makes a difference, my mids are Neale, Cripps, M Crouch, Fyfe, Rocky, Walsh, Cousins, Constable (Butters, Scott, Atkins). I have $189k in cash and will likely trade in Mummy and Stack next week for Balta and one other.

Hi Darkie, thanks for the feedback.
20/20 hindsight would have had us all trading Libba last week, that's for sure. Certainly some of the gloss has gone from the apple, now he's that much more expensive, but gee, he's still tempting! I'm not sure he's important, especially if you have all your Rookie ducks in a row.
Unfortunately, you can't get to Libba in one trade from Scott (or Atkins), which is a pity, as that would have been a nice move. Maybe you already have your other trade planned, and it is making a little more cash, but if not, I certainly wouldn't manufacture another trade, just to get one of them up to Libba.
Cousins looks like he still has $100k growth in him, and Libba on form looks to have a little more than that. I'm expecting Libba throws out an 85 or 90 this week, as Collingwood have been tough to score against, and Grundy will smash English. He gets a pretty good run of it in 7 of his next 10 after that though. If Libba scores an 85 he'll be roughly $440k, with a B/E of around 15. One more good score, and he hits $500k in 2 or 3 weeks. Not that you'd trade him until trouble hits, but that's a useful parachute if/when the trouble does hit.

I must admit, if I was a Fyfe owner, I'd probably do Fyfe ---> Libba this week. We don't know how or when Fyfe bounces back, and if he's not 100%, he could easily put in a couple of sub 100 scores. Meanwhile, the gap between him and Libba would be closing, so that also offers another potential get out clause.

 

[Mudflap]

Hey Slam,
I'd like them both to be sitting around 10/game higher, then there'd be no problem!
Darling, as you indicated, just seems to come with the KPF territory. I will be looking to see if JJK is making it too hard for Darling, though.
English is going to be a bigger problem. It's not an easy upgrade, and he's making no money. For the moment, I will just ride him out, and keep a very close eye out for an escape route!
In other words, I'm just going to sit tight, for now.

Hi Rowsus. I am also an English owner looking for an escape route. What are your thoughts on a trade to Mumford?

I will be holding fir for one more week but if Mumford scores 85 plus will strongly consider pulling the trigger