Strategy Round 15: Trades

[7/11]

Am I crazy to be considering grabbing Mundy after his recent run of bad scores?

Just had a look at the teams he has left and he scored tons against 4/5 teams he’s already played against this season (Dogs, Eagles, Saints and Bombers, Port being the only one he missed out). He also has Carlton, Sydney and Hawthorn who can give up decent midfield scores.

 

[Santoz]

So no love for Richmond's Tom Lynch?

266k

 

[stephen]

Can definitely do trades to get Logue and Heeney in and keep Westhoff at f7. It will limit my ability to upgrade or bring in the higher end elites and I will be forced to play a m/f in the midfield until finals really.

Current Team is:
Lloyd Laird Stewart Sicily Andrews Ellis (Naish Burgess)
Neale Cripps Macrae Fyfe Oliver Coniglio Rockliff Duursma (Stocker, Baker, Clarke)
Gawn Grundy (Bines)
Dangerfield, Kelly, Dunkley, Daniel, Boak, Westhoff (Settlefield Gardner)
5 trades remaining and 117k

My options are:
1. Burgess and Duursma to Logue and Heeney (79k remaining, 3 trades)
- Logue in a d7 and sit Westhoff at f7 and trading away Duursma - having about 79k left. But if westhoff continues to not play then i will be short a player in the midfield or forward and will have to play either Settlefield or Clarke as a starter - and have limited funds to upgrade Westhoff.

2. Duursma to Mouch (17k remaining, 4 trades)
- means i have 17k but have to play settlefield as long as Westhoff continues to miss, and again have on 17k to upgrade Westhoff if he doesn't get picked again.

3. Andrews/Sicily (more inclined to keep Sicily because he's more consistent if played in defence) and Duursma, Logue and Heeney (350k, 3 trades)
- Means I can upgrade Westhoff to Kelly and probably a player to Hurn later on in finals if i'm lucky. Logue will be D6 instead of Andrews - Andrews inconsistency is killing me - and as a KPP it will probably will continue.

4. Andrews and Westhoff to Hind and Heeney (399k, 3 trades)
- Means Duursma sits a D6 until finals and I have the funds for the remaining upgrades, whenever that will happen.

I think all these options have their major cons haha...

Would love some thoughts on what you'd do if you were me.

Tough one. If Logue hadn't shown up I would do option 2 happily and wait a week or two on Westhoff. I think Crouch is probably the best value premo pick in the comp at the moment, which is a good place to start. I don't mind option 1, but probably prefer to keep it simple by going with the higher-scoring mid-only option in Crouch. I would not do option 3 unless you basically saw Logue as equal to Andrews or better in terms of scoring. I'm a bit of a Logue skeptic. I will probably get him but not with the intention of playing him at D6. I would not do option 4 as I think you are likely to need those three trades for injuries and so would probably be stuck with Duursma at D6 for good.

I think I would do Duursma to M Crouch.

Then it depends on what you think of Logue and whether or not Naish survives this week. If you are only semi-enthusiastic on Logue and Naish gets named, I would let him slide and stick with that as your only trade for the week. If you really like Logue, or if Naish is dropped, do the Burgess to Logue trade as well.

Then I would wait a week on Westhoff. If he plays well in SANFL and there are good noises coming from the coaches, just stick with him and cross fingers. If he sort of disappears into the background, you probably just have to find the best value option for the price, or consider downgrading Setterfield and really riding your luck with injuries. Good luck!

 

[Tails]

Ok ... so I've continued playing around with my tables with a focus on Forwards tonight whilst waiting for the cricket to start ....
- Nope as before I don't have the trade answers as everyone has different goals, numbers of trades left, opinions on certain players, upcoming draws etc


Some notes:
- I used no real cut off ave when when selecting players this time to look at as the scores tend to fluctuate too much and on a 3 / 5 round ave basis I could go a lot deeper. So instead I've tried to incorporate players that I've seen discussed or in existing teams ... if anyone has a player they want added just let me know (it won't take me long to adjust the figures)
- There might be some gremlins as I work out my own BE's (thanks to @THCLT), Ave's etc

Abbreviations used are the same as before:
- OR (overall average ranking from the selected players)
- 3R and 3 Rnd (3 round ranking / average)
- 5R and 5 Rnd (5 round ranking / average)
- $ PP (current $ cost per point scored)
- MN (Magic Number of my full competition players calculated $ PP ave)
- BE - ave (difference between my calculated BE and the players current average)

 

[Slammer]

Cannot decide.
Get rid of Duursma or BSmith for Logue to help fund my Gibbons to mid premo trade.
BSmith likely to play every game and average slightly higher. Especially with Milera out.
Duursma would be a handy dpp during run home if I can then move Answerth to mids.
Still need to facilitate Grundy trade and another fwd.

11 trades no cash

 

[Herbie66]

might bring in Hately and see what all the fuss is about ?

talk was Lloyd for de Boer so maybe they do give him a extended run , play well enough and keep your spot.

Langdon only back for his second game as well.

 

[randomcliche]

Rocky is scoring quite nicely when he's playing, it's just that he's missed quite a few (obviously a sunk cost now) and he still seems injury prone. I'd keep him for now, especially as it sounds like he should be back next week at the latest. Personally Greene is the one I'd be least comfortable with, he's averaging 78 and is always a risk of missing games. I'd look at Greene to Boak, who is one of the most durable players in the comp. It is also worth checking out Row's research on Hurn, he scores worse in big wins and the Eagles have an easier draw coming up, plus the benefit of NicNat returning.

Yeah, have read. Hawks, normally match up okay. Derby, should be a good match, Pies close, Melb cakewalk, Nth who knows, Carl cakewalk, Adelaide close, GCS cakewalk, Hawks again...

So yeah I see the issue, easy end to the draw... Who else is going to be better? i.e we're down to who is going to absolutely score more points?
Ryan? Has Logue risk. Stewart? Williams? Rich? Rampe? JJ? Hurley? Milera? Honestly out of that list I like JJ, Ryan Stewart in that order.

Perhaps I flick Hurn going into finals if there is another viable option. I reckon there are few good games left in him yet over the next 5 rounds... Happpy to hear views to the contrary...

 

[randomcliche]

Anyone here not getting in Logue ?

Seeing so many ppl doing it is making me itchy to follow on but I’m at a state where I’m limited to trades 5 before this round Walsh > Sloane/Treloar gives me a complete team with 4 trades for injuries for the year.

If I were to get Logue my trade option would be Hore/Smith to Logue playing (Hore or Smith and Logue as D5 & 6) Walsh to L Parker giving me 146k with 3 trades ?

Not much of an increase in scoring I think, but do you need the cash?

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Just working through my trade options this week to edge closer to a finalised side.
Would love some thoughts if anyone has a moment.

Current Cash Balance $24,500

Option 1
Stack ---> Sloane
Answerth ---> Hind
$28,800
Full Premium MIDs, Duursma/Logue & possibly Naish D6, no FWD cover at the moment. Can wait on Whitfield or go another Premium DEF (Ryan/Williams) next week or the week after.

Option 2
Duursma ---> Ryan / Williams [Anyone but Whitfield/Houli]
Answerth ---> Hind
$15,800
Full Premium DEFs (no need to wait on Whitfield), not utilising Logue's scoring unless Naish dropped to loophole, Stack M8 and a downgraded needed to turn him into a Premium MID

Option 3
Answerth ---> Hind
Duursma ---> Rose (via Burges to DEF)
$365,300
Double downgrade, Logue/Naish D6/D7, Rose F7 as FWD cover. 2 upgrades still required.

Still tossing up who my upgrade premiums will be, however don't see too much wrong with Sloane at his price. Bontempelli could also be an option, does he hit a hot streak? Slightly worried that blokes will go to him to stop his influence on games though, like Pendles did on the weekend.


View attachment 9803

 

[teatai]

Not much of an increase in scoring I think, but do you need the cash?

Not really in need of cash cause I’m able to do Walsh to Sloane/Treloar in 1 trade
Just worried that I might miss a very good chance of a good mature rookie price player but yeah as I stated I’m low on trades not sure if it’s worth it..

 

[JMAC]

The week I could actually use three trades...

Hately, Naish, Hind - which 2?

 

[MC's Mix]

So no love for Richmond's Tom Lynch?

266k

Currently 5th in the Coleman race and has scored over 75 exactly once this season.
He is a player whose average has been boosted the last couple of years by 1-2 massive scores (back until 2016 when he was actually good).

The way he's playing I can't see him (or Richmond) ripping a team apart too soon.

*A very tempting downgrade from Balta/Larkey if you have a couple of spare trades and the possibility to loop him with someone. 4 of his remaining 9 are Sunday games however, with only 1 on Friday.

 

[Santoz]

Currently 5th in the Coleman race and has scored over 75 exactly once this season.
He is a player whose average has been boosted the last couple of years by 1-2 massive scores (back until 2016 when he was actually good).

The way he's playing I can't see him (or Richmond) ripping a team apart too soon.

*A very tempting downgrade from Balta/Larkey if you have a couple of spare trades and the possibility to loop him with someone. 4 of his remaining 9 are Sunday games however, with only 1 on Friday.

Thanks for the research. Not the ideal F7 from here on in, but I need someone to give me a chop out while I wait for bloody Menegola to return. Lord I hate the Cats & their BS hush hush around player injuries.

 

[MC's Mix]

The week I could actually use three trades...

Hately, Naish, Hind - which 2?

Never thought I'd say this, but I think Naish has worse JS than Hately.

Scoring potential:
Hately>Naish>Hind

JS:
Hind>Hately>Naish

Depends on your current bench, I wouldn't think cash generation would be a factor, but whether you'd prefer 4-5 rounds of good scoring vs 9 rounds of solid cover?

With my team I'd be picking Hately and Hind, as I'm fairly well set for defensive cover.

 

[Santoz]

Currently 5th in the Coleman race and has scored over 75 exactly once this season.
He is a player whose average has been boosted the last couple of years by 1-2 massive scores (back until 2016 when he was actually good).

The way he's playing I can't see him (or Richmond) ripping a team apart too soon.

*A very tempting downgrade from Balta/Larkey if you have a couple of spare trades and the possibility to loop him with someone. 4 of his remaining 9 are Sunday games however, with only 1 on Friday.

Quickly glancing over the draw & it looks like I may be able to loop him with Menegola pretty well whenever Menegola returns. I have Burgess & Gardner DPP so without them playing I should be able to exploit that loop I'd imagine.

 

[siwel]

1st trade - Answerth to Logue, leaving me with 143K
Do I upgrade Hore/BSmith to TStewart or LRyan or bank the cash in order to upgrade my mids to full prem?

 

[Bomber18]

1st trade - Answerth to Logue, leaving me with 143K
Do I upgrade Hore/BSmith to TStewart or LRyan or bank the cash in order to upgrade my mids to full prem?

I would make the risky play and trade Hore to a mid via DPP (Burgess into def, Owies to fwd). Bont or even Merrett seems reachable?

 

[Tamuhawk]

Need help. Team atm.

DEF: Lloyd, Williams, Sicily, Andrews, Smith, Hore (Logue, Gardner)
MID: Jelly, Neale, Cripps, Macrae, Fyfe, Oliver, Brouch, Duursma (Clarke, Baker, Bewley)
RUC: Grundy, Gawn (Bines)
FWD: Boak, Danger, Telly, Daniel, Jezza, Worpedo (Burgess, Young)

Planning on using just the one trade to get the Sloane Ranger in. After this ill have 5 trades leftover.

Question is who should I trade out between Hore and Duursma?

Hore out:
Leaves me $126k for a future trade and could play Duursma/Logue at D6 for a while and target a better D6 down the track.

Duursma out:
Hore plays as D6 with occasional loop with Logue. Leaves me with $88k for future trades.

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Would love to bring in Sloane or Ryan this week but the lack of funds have me binded in a corner so a double down is the most possible move for me.

Thinking Answerth/Marsh > Hately/Logue but those trades do not generate me a lot of cash.
Alternatively could do Larkey/Answerth > Hately/Logue via Gardner but that would mean both Gardner & Burgess in my FWD line which I am reluctant.

Is it better to keep Larkey at F7 (less cash) or to have Gardner & Burgess taking the forward bench (more cash but risky)?

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Need help. Team atm.

DEF: Lloyd, Williams, Sicily, Andrews, Smith, Hore (Logue, Gardner)
MID: Jelly, Neale, Cripps, Macrae, Fyfe, Oliver, Brouch, Duursma (Clarke, Baker, Bewley)
RUC: Grundy, Gawn (Bines)
FWD: Boak, Danger, Telly, Daniel, Jezza, Worpedo (Burgess, Young)

Planning on using just the one trade to get the Sloane Ranger in. After this ill have 5 trades leftover.

Question is who should I trade out between Hore and Duursma?

Hore out:
Leaves me $126k for a future trade and could play Duursma/Logue at D6 for a while and target a better D6 down the track.

Duursma out:
Hore plays as D6 with occasional loop with Logue. Leaves me with $88k for future trades.

I prefer option 1 and you might be able to target Hurn or Ryan down the track