Position Ruck Discussion

[Herbie66]

I'll be more than happy if Sam Jacobs can do that for me!

He looks a far more realistic option than Naismith , 5 previous seasons of 90+ so previous history supports him as a option.

No idea what the plan with is Mumford though , just keep him in the NEAFL as backup.

Briggs and Flynn I think are the only other options although Flynn might be injured.

Unless they use Keeffe again to assist.

 

[Dustman]

Forgive my ignorance if he’s been mentioned, haven’t had time to read every single page,but surely Darcy Cameron will get games,he’s a far superior footballer than Cox, and is DPP (assuming the season goes ahead), and in my opinion would offer Coll more flexibility, hopefully not to the detriment of Grundy.

 

[OnTopBar]

Based on TooSerious Salary Calculator , Naismith's AAT would see him at $ 267 k by the time of his Bye , problem though is he has a zero for 2 sides he hasn't played against.

However if he scored 75 each game his price would be $ 362 k

Good luck to Naismith starters

Naismith and Ceglar are my vehicles to get back to Gawn if he warrants it.

 

[Dustman]

Naismith and Ceglar are my vehicles to get back to Gawn if he warrants it.

Naismith is a massive risk,played 28 games in 4 years. Did his knee 2018 pre season,and has struggled with knee issues since . Max ave of 68 and is 27,in his eighth year. Averages 9 disposals,and according to prospectus, 45% of his rating points come from hit outs,and rates average for hit out win rate,and hitouts to advantage.

 

[Santoz]

Forgive my ignorance if he’s been mentioned, haven’t had time to read every single page,but surely Darcy Cameron will get games,he’s a far superior footballer than Cox, and is DPP (assuming the season goes ahead), and in my opinion would offer Coll more flexibility, hopefully not to the detriment of Grundy.

Reckon he'll be easier to switch down to when he's on the bubble. Hope that isn't for a few weeks to give the slow burners King & Rankine time to make some cash.

 

[OnTopBar]

Naismith is a massive risk,played 28 games in 4 years. Did his knee 2018 pre season,and has struggled with knee issues since . Max ave of 68 and is 27,in his eighth year. Averages 9 disposals,and according to prospectus, 45% of his rating points come from hit outs,and rates average for hit out win rate,and hitouts to advantage.

I do understand the risk, maybe I'll regret it. But at his price as a number one ruck I'm willing to have a crack. Worst case is it costs me a trade or two. But it's not just him in isolation, it's a whole team combination.

 

[Connoisseur]

Finally!

2019 HTA-

 

[Connoisseur]

B Grundy:


Key:
HO= Hitouts
HOA= Hitouts to Advantage
HOAR= Hitouts to Advantage Rate %
RC= Ruck Contests

Since 2018:
No matches below 7 HTA
9/44 below 10 HTA
14/44 with 15+ HTA
HTA% of 30.37% (626/2061)

 

[Connoisseur]

M Gawn:


Key:
HO= Hitouts
HOA= Hitouts to Advantage
HOAR= Hitouts to Advantage Rate %
RC= Ruck Contests

Since 2018:
1/43 with 0-5 HTA
5/43 below 10 HTA
26/43 with 15+ HTA
6/43 with 20+ HTA (all occurring in 2018)
HTA% of 35.22% (686/1948)

 

[Connoisseur]

J Witts:


Key:
HO= Hitouts
HOA= Hitouts to Advantage
HOAR= Hitouts to Advantage Rate %
RC= Ruck Contests

Since 2018:
15/44 below 10 HTA
6/44 with 15+HTA (4/6 in the last 5 rounds of 2019)
HTA% of 25.36% (472/1861)

 

[Connoisseur]

T Goldstein:


Key:
HO= Hitouts
HOA= Hitouts to Advantage
HOAR= Hitouts to Advantage Rate %
RC= Ruck Contests

Since 2018:
12/44 below 10 HTA
7/44 15+ HTA
HTA% of 32.5% (494/1520)

 

[Connoisseur]

R O'Brien:


Key:
HO= Hitouts
HOA= Hitouts to Advantage
HOAR= Hitouts to Advantage Rate %
RC= Ruck Contests

12/18 below 10 HTA
1/18 15+ HTA

 

[Connoisseur]

R Marshall:


Key:
HO= Hitouts
HOA= Hitouts to Advantage
HOAR= Hitouts to Advantage Rate %
RC= Ruck Contests

Since 2018:
17/32 0-5 HTA
26/32 below 10 HTA
0/32 15+HTA
HTA% of 25.51% (174/682)

 

[Connoisseur]

T English:


Key:
HO= Hitouts
HOA= Hitouts to Advantage
HOAR= Hitouts to Advantage Rate %
RC= Ruck Contests

Since 2018:
17/26 0-5 HTA
3/26 10+ HTA
HTA% of 26.30% (126/479)

9 games with more 6 or more HTA all occurred in 2019.
SC Avg: 97.56 from 9 (99,90,103,96,121,63,97,105,104)
Rest of Career: 63.47 from 19

 

[Darkie]

Finally!

2019 HTA-
View attachment 16413
View attachment 16414
View attachment 16415
View attachment 16416
View attachment 16417
View attachment 16418

Gee Casboult must be a big unit if he makes Sandi look small.

 

[Connoisseur]

J Ceglar:


Key:
HO= Hitouts
HOA= Hitouts to Advantage
HOAR= Hitouts to Advantage Rate %
RC= Ruck Contests

Since 2018:
15/25 0-5 HTA
4/25 10+ HTA
HTA% of 26.47% (144/544)

 

[Connoisseur]

S Jacobs:


Key:
HO= Hitouts
HOA= Hitouts to Advantage
HOAR= Hitouts to Advantage Rate %
RC= Ruck Contests

Since 2018:
2/27 0-5 HTA
11/27 below 10 HTA
5/27 15+HTA
1/27 20+HTA
HTA% of 29.92% (292/976)

 

[Blades]

Great figures Connoisseur....

I hope you don't mind that I've used some of them to make some graphs and do some further analysis..

Starting with Gawn and Grundy....




It seems (not suprising) Grundy is at his peak in terms of number of ruck contests he gets to (about 85) and his HTA% of around 30%. As we know, not just injury wise but also a little bit in number of ruck contests. Gawn was down to a 68 avg (slightly Preuss 5 game affected) from what was probably an unsustainable peak in 2018 (avg 81 RCs). It's hard to tell who will be the 2nd Melbourne rucks over 22 games (Jackson, Preuss or Weiderman) but his attendance at Ruck contests may climb a little from last year. i.e as we are probably already factoring in, Gawn has more downside and possibly more upside (at least game to game) than Grundy.

Next comparison...Grundy vs English (to look at his possible trajectory) which will be similar to the above but also include time on ground and disposal counts.

 

[Blades]

Grundy v English (Part 1)

Starting with Ruck contests attended and HTA historical figures and possible predictions for English. There are obvious differences in the development of the two (and I won't go into all of them now) but there are a few similarites. Both 1st round picks (rare for ruckman), both tall and lean (English slighlty taller and thinner) and both likely to end up big disposal kings. So the evidence and guesses...


I was suprised that English already had such a good HTA% and still has some natural progression here. He will probably end up being at least as good as Grundy one day on this. His biggest improvement is likely to come from the number of contests he attends. If he is sole ruck for the Dogs his fitness base will continue to grow and he will attend more contests. There is talk of him spending more time in the forward line. But I think he can do both.

 

[Blades]

Grundy v English (Part 2)

As suggested its not just rucking that we may be able to use Grundy as a bit of guide for English. Looking at time on ground and disposals might be a guide. Although recognising Grundy's somewhat freakish abilities in this area, you have to moderate English's ceilings in these areas.



English already showed a good tank last year but has probably got almost another 5 minutes average playing time before he peaks (soon). As his body has built up we can expect more possessions from contested and uncontested marks and disposals overall. It is probably slightly optimistic but a 15 disposal average for him in 2020 may not be out of reach as he attends more ruck contests and rests in the forward line a bit more.