Position Ruck Discussion

[Blades]

Grundy v English (Part 3)...and I'll bring back Gawn for this.


So. the hardest bit to last and where your input helps. What is his SC avg trajectory now look like. As you can see from Grundy and Gawn (and English is still very young) it's not a simple linear pattern but there are some patterns.

Now, if English's rucking scores go up by 15-20% (mainly from more contests attended) and his disposal count rises by at least as much, I think a Supercoach average of 100 this year is not out of the question. I know he's got a tough start against Grundy and he's yet to play a full season...

Let's look at the trends....(for this one I aligned the years of similar progression rather than calendar years)


We all know English's progression is coming, but will it be a breakout this year, a consolidation before a bigger breakout next year. Either way it is based on the assumption will one day be a premium if not a super premium ruck. I think the data points to at least a mini-breakout this year for English and I've had a stab at him averaging just over 100. Big call I know, what do you think?

Do these graphs help. Obviously they are easier to do for ruckmen and there's not many of them with a clear trajectory. The only other rucks I've really considered are NicNat, Ceglar and Naismith whose patterns (and game counts probably rule them out) and Jacobs and Goldstein. Particularly Jacobs ruck attendances per game dropped last year (one game especially with O'Brien) and if he reverted to type he would have a massive upswing. I think I might do one more on the dinosaurs and compare Jacobs and Goldstein. Unless there are any other requests?

 

[Vicwood]

Probably a mix of things. The biggest factor I imagine is that Rucking is physicaly brutal - you have the biggest player in the team, clashing into the other biggest player on the park around 60 times a game. The body can't take the strain (especially when you're that tall) - and combined that with the added attention you receive as the 'premium' ruckman, and the fact that 200cm bodies would just in general struggle to put 22 games every year together at a high level, and it all adds up.

Brodie has really bucked the trend, but his X-Factor is his marking / link up possession play- he's basically an extra mid (and simply a freak of an athlete)

Yes, i will even say that the future is endurance players over 200cm and 95kg and above. You will see teams adopt 3 maybe 4 in rotation in the coming years. One at the contest one in front one behind play. One on the bench. Gawn and Grundy are the start, English is the proto type....others will follow. This young kid Jackson from the Dees, is the type coaches will be looking for during the draft in the next few years and beyond. Big Tall mobile players with long reach and a good good leap.

 

[Vicwood]

Forgive my ignorance if he’s been mentioned, haven’t had time to read every single page,but surely Darcy Cameron will get games,he’s a far superior footballer than Cox, and is DPP (assuming the season goes ahead), and in my opinion would offer Coll more flexibility, hopefully not to the detriment of Grundy.

With DeGoey set for the mid feild, the Pies could and should play 2 talls in FWD Line. That said DeGoey belongs up front, has the best lead in the game and is a bull with the ball on the ground. Decent kick for goal too.

Hope the coaching panel can see what every other Pies supporter can. Cameron before Cox.

 

[PC]

Thanks @Blades

Great discussion, figures and analysis!

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Grundy v English (Part 3)...and I'll bring back Gawn for this.


So. the hardest bit to last and where your input helps. What is his SC avg trajectory now look like. As you can see from Grundy and Gawn (and English is still very young) it's not a simple linear pattern but there are some patterns.

Now, if English's rucking scores go up by 15-20% (mainly from more contests attended) and his disposal count rises by at least as much, I think a Supercoach average of 100 this year is not out of the question. I know he's got a tough start against Grundy and he's yet to play a full season...

Let's look at the trends....(for this one I aligned the years of similar progression rather than calendar years)
View attachment 16445

We all know English's progression is coming, but will it be a breakout this year, a consolidation before a bigger breakout next year. Either way it is based on the assumption will one day be a premium if not a super premium ruck. I think the data points to at least a mini-breakout this year for English and I've had a stab at him averaging just over 100. Big call I know, what do you think?

Do these graphs help. Obviously they are easier to do for ruckmen and there's not many of them with a clear trajectory. The only other rucks I've really considered are NicNat, Ceglar and Naismith whose patterns (and game counts probably rule them out) and Jacobs and Goldstein. Particularly Jacobs ruck attendances per game dropped last year (one game especially with O'Brien) and if he reverted to type he would have a massive upswing. I think I might do one more on the dinosaurs and compare Jacobs and Goldstein. Unless there are any other requests?

awesome work Blades. I do remember at the time English was taken how highly rated he was. Grundy as well around Y3 everyone was talking him up. It is that period of consolidation that is concerning.

It appears the correlation is mainly ruck contests. TOG and disposals showed only minor improvements. also expect HTA rule changed helped Grundy, which is already working in English favour so that doesn't give a kicker.

Does hit out attendance follow player size. Last update is English 93kg and Grundy 100kg despite conceding 2cm. Gawn 109kg.

would be interesting to see chart of weight and hit out attended for developing ruckman from 19 years old.

overall, you have nailed the next ruck royalty in my view, looks like he will get there by 24 years of age. also augers well for Bulldog midfielders. I now feel naked only starting with 2!

 

[MC's Mix]

These are great figures, though from a Supercoach perspective, I feel (anecdotally, without any supportive concrete evidence) that Grundy gets a lot of his points from his contributions with the ball; taking strong contested grabs and linking up through the mids to impact the scoreboard.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Anyone summarise the last two pages in to two words please, preferably Grundy Gawn.

 

[THCLT]

Anyone summarise the last two pages in to two words please, preferably Grundy Gawn.

Pot Luck...?

 

[Connoisseur]

Anyone summarise the last two pages in to two words please, preferably Grundy Gawn.

Naismith and Catsup.

 

[Blades]

awesome work Blades. I do remember at the time English was taken how highly rated he was. Grundy as well around Y3 everyone was talking him up. It is that period of consolidation that is concerning.

It appears the correlation is mainly ruck contests. TOG and disposals showed only minor improvements. also expect HTA rule changed helped Grundy, which is already working in English favour so that doesn't give a kicker.

Does hit out attendance follow player size. Last update is English 93kg and Grundy 100kg despite conceding 2cm. Gawn 109kg.

would be interesting to see chart of weight and hit out attended for developing ruckman from 19 years old.

overall, you have nailed the next ruck royalty in my view, looks like he will get there by 24 years of age. also augers well for Bulldog midfielders. I now feel naked only starting with 2!

Some good points, especially re Grundy's and Gawn's spike/curve re change or rules. Perhaps that does mean English's rise will be more linear.

 

[Blades]

These are great figures, though from a Supercoach perspective, I feel (anecdotally, without any supportive concrete evidence) that Grundy gets a lot of his points from his contributions with the ball; taking strong contested grabs and linking up through the mids to impact the scoreboard.

Your anecodotal leanings are probably on the money. Statistics, graphs etc sometimes can't compete with our own observations.

 

[Blades]

OK, since I did it for myself (and dispite the stats overload) I'll share the ...

Jacobs vs Goldstein (why?)

One risky and one a seeming more solid choice. But Jacobs is the 3rd most popular premium ruckman (16%) and Goldstein (3%) so which is which?
This analysis probably relates more to assessing Jacob's value rather than Goldstein (who we have a better idea of what we are going to get). In fact, Goldstein’s figures give some hope to Jacob’s return. Goldstein is a very safe pick if you are worried by injury to Gawn (or Grundy to a lesser extent).
Also, the big assumption in this analysis is that they remain sole ruckman for the vast majority of the year. Cue concerns about Big Mummy!
The two rucks are both 31 but we know for a ruckman that can be slightly less of a worry than for a midfielder.

Jacobs vs Goldstein (Part A- RC’s and HTA)


These two were once top two ruck men partly because they had HTA ratios somewhere between Gawn’s (exceptional 35%) and Grundy’s (very good 30%). Yes they now get beaten up by Gawndy when they play them, but they still manage 30% plus on HTA over the year and this is unlikely to change. Although Jacobs might fall a little if he rucks at more contest, which is the key to Jacob’s partial recovery. He will never get back to attending 90 plus ruck contests a game but 75 would be obtainable if rucking with Himmelberg, DeBoer, Finlayson or Briggs as relief.
Similarly, Goldstein 100 RC’s are long gone but he will get an occasional chop out from Brown or Xerri (if he plays) in the middle of the quarter and sometimes rucking in the forward 50. i.e. not much to hope for other than a slight improvement because no (2 game) experiments with Campbell disrupting things in the ruck as he did early last year.

 

[PC]

Anyone summarise the last two pages in to two words please, preferably Grundy Gawn.

Sexy time.

 

[Blades]

Jacobs vs Goldstein (Part B- on ground and disposals)

Grundy learnt about fitness from these two ruckmen. Goldstein is the only ruckman to average more time on the Grundy in the last 5 years. Goldstein looks as fit as ever and Jacobs looked trim in the Marsh Series and won’t have the same injury and O’Brien induced 97-minute average on the ground again (insert Mummy caveat here!). Jacobs disposals will increase from his lowest level for years if he stays on the park. I was surprised Goldy had his best disposal figures last year, especially in the back half of the year.

 

[Blades]

Jacobs vs Goldstein (Part C- Get to the point! Supercoach scores)
If you are already on Goldstein, nothing here says you should jump off. Many on here can see a marginal improvement (like me) or slight drop but no big standard deviation.
Jacobs??? Well, if we back the trend (and hide Mummy)..his days of ton averages are probably gone but low 90’s is not out of reach. This is based purely on a couple more disposals and up to 10 more ruck contests than 2019. Not that hard if sole ruckman.



So, I’ve put Jaob's SC average going from 80 to 93. Which is even better if you factor in that he is priced at 64. High risk-reward. Not super high preimum (Gawn, Grundy) or super-safe (Goldy, Grundy) but maybe not as high-risk as (Naismith, Ceglar & NicNat). You’ve most likely already made your call. This has probably only confused my decision more than ever. Either way good luck!

 

[Blades]

Anyone summarise the last two pages in to two words please, preferably Grundy Gawn.

Over rated!

 

[Philzsay]

Anyone summarise the last two pages in to two words please, preferably Grundy Gawn.

Gawndy Locked!

 

[NT.Thunder]

Over rated!

The last 2 pages are over rated? That's a bit harsh!

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Goldy & Grundy looks interesting, I was on that boat most of pre-season and may yet revert to that ruck setup.
Thanks Blades, awesome analysis!

 

[Blades]

Goldy & Grundy looks interesting, I was on that boat most of pre-season and may yet revert to that ruck setup.
Thanks Blades, awesome analysis!

No worries mate..Good option i think if you go with Goldy.

It’s funny, I played as an undersized ruck in a lower grade in the NT over a couple of decades ago, but I think I’ve learnt more about the rucking art in recent years from watching the best go about it. All due to SuperCoach.