Opinion Player X vs. Player Y
- Thread starter Darkie
- Start date
One thing to keep in your consideration when assessing your trade in candidates, particularly towards the end of a season is what you think that player will average from hereon NOT what they've averaged up to this point. This is where weighing upcoming matchups and respective teams aspiration for the remainder of the season is of most importance.
It's a well known fact that player's ownership for the current high ranked teams are generally a combination of the 'best averages' to date, that's the reason why those teams are ahead of you. You now have 2 options; morphed your team to look like one of them to prevent losing any further ground but unlikely to make much progress OR try and 'hand pick' a couple of players who you feel will better their averages for the remaining 4 rounds with the hope of gaining some significant grounds if they come off but risk falling further behind.
At the end of the day, it boils down to each individual coach ultimate season's end goal: Are they just happy to finish as high as possible...? Are they willing to risk a Top 100 rank in order to try and get to Top 50...? Are they having their best season and wanting to preserve that achievement...? etc...
Personally, at this stage of the season, I tend to pay less attention to player's YTD averages and ignore their current price altogether. I look for players who I feel will average the most from hereon and if I can afford them...then great, if not, I'll just work down my list of options until I find one which fits the bill.
One final observation from me is that ALL players goes through 'hot & cold' streak during a season, even the Uber Premium ones! The reason behind this is vast and numerous, but it definitely does happen. Don't be 'put off' by a player you've identified as being in that hot streak or about to enter a hot streak due to fixture just because he's not in the Top YTD season's averages. Below are some names currently at the top for their positions based on the 5-Rd rolling averages. I'm sure we can all agree that some of the names below have us scratching our heads as the majority of them don't carry that 'brand name' tag which rolls better off our tongues and prevent others from looking at us as if we've completely lost the plot.
DEF: McDonald, Lukosius, Witherden, Blicavs, McGovern, BWilliams, Cerra
MID: Zerrett, Steele, Adams, Wines, Hunter, Guthrie, MCrouch, Mundy, Rockliff
RUC: Marshall, McEvoy
FWD: Hawkins, RGray, Ladhams, Darling, Big O, Bolton, Dawson
It's one thing to be reckless and throw all caution with 'risky' trading from now on, but it's a totally different thing if you're taking a calculated risk based on the information at hand. We have some of the best exponent of the latter on show for this season right here on our forums so watch & learn their craft.
It's a well known fact that player's ownership for the current high ranked teams are generally a combination of the 'best averages' to date, that's the reason why those teams are ahead of you. You now have 2 options; morphed your team to look like one of them to prevent losing any further ground but unlikely to make much progress OR try and 'hand pick' a couple of players who you feel will better their averages for the remaining 4 rounds with the hope of gaining some significant grounds if they come off but risk falling further behind.
At the end of the day, it boils down to each individual coach ultimate season's end goal: Are they just happy to finish as high as possible...? Are they willing to risk a Top 100 rank in order to try and get to Top 50...? Are they having their best season and wanting to preserve that achievement...? etc...
Personally, at this stage of the season, I tend to pay less attention to player's YTD averages and ignore their current price altogether. I look for players who I feel will average the most from hereon and if I can afford them...then great, if not, I'll just work down my list of options until I find one which fits the bill.
One final observation from me is that ALL players goes through 'hot & cold' streak during a season, even the Uber Premium ones! The reason behind this is vast and numerous, but it definitely does happen. Don't be 'put off' by a player you've identified as being in that hot streak or about to enter a hot streak due to fixture just because he's not in the Top YTD season's averages. Below are some names currently at the top for their positions based on the 5-Rd rolling averages. I'm sure we can all agree that some of the names below have us scratching our heads as the majority of them don't carry that 'brand name' tag which rolls better off our tongues and prevent others from looking at us as if we've completely lost the plot.
DEF: McDonald, Lukosius, Witherden, Blicavs, McGovern, BWilliams, Cerra
MID: Zerrett, Steele, Adams, Wines, Hunter, Guthrie, MCrouch, Mundy, Rockliff
RUC: Marshall, McEvoy
FWD: Hawkins, RGray, Ladhams, Darling, Big O, Bolton, Dawson
It's one thing to be reckless and throw all caution with 'risky' trading from now on, but it's a totally different thing if you're taking a calculated risk based on the information at hand. We have some of the best exponent of the latter on show for this season right here on our forums so watch & learn their craft.
One other thing I forgot to also mention in my post above is to tread with CAUTION when looking at player's recent scores in games (say from R10 onwards) as it's not always a 'true' indicator of their recent form as the SC scores doesn't allow for things like rotations, being played OOP, low TOG, etc. This year, like no other, you really have to drill down on the numbers and re-watch some games if you want to substantiate/justify some of player's scores of late; Bont & Danger are the 2 that immediately comes to mind, as I have them and have followed their respective games with a very keen set of eyes.
I personally think Danger and Simpkin will do better from here on (refer other recent posts that this is what you should base your trades on at this point). Simpkin is a bit of a concern, as the Kangas look awful lately, but I guess some of them have to get some points. Looking at possibly trading Duncan and Simpkin myself, if I only trade one it'll be Duncan.
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I would confidently keep danger and simpkin if were my team. i doubt they will be resting danger fwd leading into finals like they did a month ago so would pick danger over duncan.
simpkin just scored a 79 for barely doing anything, plays purely on ball and the kangas points have to go somewhere. Baz has a lot of competition in that midfield and have a feeling he is only going at 90 from here which is why I have been thinking about getting him up to Brayshaw. Baz has only scored above 100 once in the last 6 weeks, which was 150 that boosts his average. simpkin has gone over 100 three times in the last 6 weeks and his low scores were due to his ankle injury slowing him down from what i saw of him during that time
simpkin just scored a 79 for barely doing anything, plays purely on ball and the kangas points have to go somewhere. Baz has a lot of competition in that midfield and have a feeling he is only going at 90 from here which is why I have been thinking about getting him up to Brayshaw. Baz has only scored above 100 once in the last 6 weeks, which was 150 that boosts his average. simpkin has gone over 100 three times in the last 6 weeks and his low scores were due to his ankle injury slowing him down from what i saw of him during that time
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Fyfe + Brayshaw (Freo) vs D.Smith/J.Martin + Oliver
- The freo guys have a decent draw, playing outside of Perth for the first time in months is a bit worrying
- Fyfe essentially has 3 straight games in the 80s if you take out the first quarter against carlton and replace it with a 25
- Essendon have a difficult draw and Smith has already burned me once
- Oliver almost certain to face the De Boer tag in 2 weeks
- The freo guys have a decent draw, playing outside of Perth for the first time in months is a bit worrying
- Fyfe essentially has 3 straight games in the 80s if you take out the first quarter against carlton and replace it with a 25
- Essendon have a difficult draw and Smith has already burned me once
- Oliver almost certain to face the De Boer tag in 2 weeks
I would trade the latter two. Duncan hasn’t lived up to his early season form and Smith has dropped off too, probably in part because of the Dogs again having too many mids.
I believe I’m correct in saying that Simpkin has been getting a lot of CBAs throughout and may revert towards his early season form as his injury issue recedes into the distance. Danger has been up and down in part with role, but has been quietly putting together another very good season without perhaps having the ceiling of earlier years.
I believe I’m correct in saying that Simpkin has been getting a lot of CBAs throughout and may revert towards his early season form as his injury issue recedes into the distance. Danger has been up and down in part with role, but has been quietly putting together another very good season without perhaps having the ceiling of earlier years.
