Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

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More just thinking out loud here, but:
Is there any merit for those not keen on Preuss but not keen on the Gawn outlay to start Marshall in the RUC line and swing him down subsequently?
The FWD and DEF lines have some appealing options, actually thought about maybe starting a MID/FWD and MID/DEF premo in the MID line, so it frees up a FWD spot.
Not sure if it ultimately really makes sense, just a thought.
I don't like it , if Gawn, Grundy or Pruess get injured, Marshall will be very handy to sub into the rucks through Treacy.
 
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@Darkie

I think last season you provided me with a simple formula (which I wrote down and have lost) of how much a player had to average to increase in price by $ 150k.

Curious about what Ziebell , Brown & Daniher would need to average to be "considered" successful starting picks.

From memory a player priced at $ 275k needed to average close to 90.
It's not precise but the quick and easy way I use is to multiply predicted average by 5000. So a 90 ave gets you 450k.
 
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I think the imprecision of the term "midpricer" is on display at the moment. Players like Ziebell and the other cheap forwards are just cash cows so whether or not they're a good pick is a pretty simple calculation about how much money you predict them to make versus how much you expect cheaper rookies to make (which is obviously very hard to know at the moment). There's nothing inherently risky about them. If anything it's probably a bit conservative to stick with these 'name' options over the unknown rookies.

Players like milera, Walsh, Rowell, rozee etc are a different animal as you're predicting them to improve into keeper status. Comes with its own risk and reward but a narrower definition of success.
 
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Thanks for that.

I better get my crystal ball out and forecast some averages then.

65 average for Daniher would get him to $ 325k.

So still a lot to get to a $ 500k forward premium
Yeah I think if you expect him to average 65 he's a pretty easy pass.

KPFs can be a but different I guess as you are probably hoping for a couple of big bags to get a spike in price but it's a bit of a gamble.
 
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Collingwood
Yeah I think if you expect him to average 65 he's a pretty easy pass.

KPFs can be a but different I guess as you are probably hoping for a couple of big bags to get a spike in price but it's a bit of a gamble.
I got no idea to be honest.

59.1 , 60.7 , 68.8 , 86.0 between 2014 & 2017.

65 seemed a nice number based on those first 3 seasons.

Interesting Hipwood has only gone above 55 once in 5 seasons and that was last season.

If Daniher came out and kicked 5+ in the first few rounds he could get a big spike , but days of full forwards doing that these days seem rare.

I guess it depends on rookies starting but what are your thoughts on starting Daniher ? (and/or Brown & Ziebell) if you don't mind sharing them.
 
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I got no idea to be honest.

59.1 , 60.7 , 68.8 , 86.0 between 2014 & 2017.

65 seemed a nice number based on those first 3 seasons.

Interesting Hipwood has only gone above 55 once in 5 seasons and that was last season.

If Daniher came out and kicked 5+ in the first few rounds he could get a big spike , but days of full forwards doing that these days seem rare.

I guess it depends on rookies starting but what are your thoughts on starting Daniher ? (and/or Brown & Ziebell) if you don't mind sharing them.
If Ziebell has a full preseason and looks fit then I think he's probably a pretty obvious and easy pick. More so if he has this half back role that has been suggested.

I'm open to the other two and they are currently in my team but I don't really have strong opinions on them. I guess we just wait and see how they look and what the options are. Forward rookies are often duds so it's nice to have them as options.
 

Darkie

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@Darkie

I think last season you provided me with a simple formula (which I wrote down and have lost) of how much a player had to average to increase in price by $ 150k.

Curious about what Ziebell , Brown & Daniher would need to average to be "considered" successful starting picks.

From memory a player priced at $ 275k needed to average close to 90.
No worries - that’s about right.

A rough rule of thumb would be:

Price / $5,000 + 35ppg

A player will make closer to $175k over the whole season on this basis, but the last $25k takes ages.

The above works fairly well for making $150k in decent time.
 
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I think the imprecision of the term "midpricer" is on display at the moment. Players like Ziebell and the other cheap forwards are just cash cows so whether or not they're a good pick is a pretty simple calculation about how much money you predict them to make versus how much you expect cheaper rookies to make (which is obviously very hard to know at the moment). There's nothing inherently risky about them. If anything it's probably a bit conservative to stick with these 'name' options over the unknown rookies.

Players like milera, Walsh, Rowell, rozee etc are a different animal as you're predicting them to improve into keeper status. Comes with its own risk and reward but a narrower definition of success.
I agree I wouldn't usually pick mid price guys off the back of serious injuries but they're basically high priced rookies with histories averaging 80+ when fit. We've paid similar prices for the likes of Darcy Moore and Daniel Wells in the past and they've worked out pretty well. They keep poor rookie scorers off the field while also giving you a chance to pick up a rookie gem that slips through the cracks like a vandermeer or miers have done in the past if they end up being bad picks. I currently have Atkins Ziebell Daniher and Brown, Brown is the most likely to go if there looks to be a better cheaper rookie on offer.
 
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No worries - that’s about right.

A rough rule of thumb would be:

Price / $5,000 + 35ppg

A player will make closer to $175k over the whole season on this basis, but the last $25k takes ages.

The above works fairly well for making $150k in decent time.
Thanks for that.
 
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If Ziebell has a full preseason and looks fit then I think he's probably a pretty obvious and easy pick. More so if he has this half back role that has been suggested.

I'm open to the other two and they are currently in my team but I don't really have strong opinions on them. I guess we just wait and see how they look and what the options are. Forward rookies are often duds so it's nice to have them as options.
Thanks for that.

Yes this year I have picked my rucks then will wait on the rookies and then fill in my side from their side will consider all options once we get closer.
 
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Richmond
Thought this thread was the better place to post, if not then mods please move.

Got a bit of a dilemma, posted in the 'Rate my Team' thread that I'm running with Lloyd, Neale and Gawndy with a 3-6-2-3 having Zilliams at D3, Taranto M6 and Bolton F3. In the mids I have Walsh, Dusty (to go forward) Rowell and Taranto and thinking that I have M1-2 covered and M6-8 likewise. Leaving me to fill M3-5 with players 600k+ which is going to be a real struggle as I see those players as the core of the midfield.

Ideally I'd like to keep the same structure but populate M1-M5 with those higher priced players and then recruit M6-M8 with the players that have fallen to a price that makes them affordable. There would be an opportunity cost through losing those value players that I have now, but probably balanced by not having to recruit those 600k+ guys.

ATS it seems that the only real option is to trade Gawn > Preuss which I don't really want to do particularly considering Pruess's first 4 games.

Anyone got any ideas?
 
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Are we all living in a bit of a La-La Land hoping and expecting the amount of rookies in our GnR teams to actually play round 1?

I have a sneaking suspicion that we will have very few rookies selected due to the lack of development and opportunities the young lads have had to play and train last year.

It may hit home when the one and only practice teams are selected and we have very few rookies playing.

I then hope that you all come back and like this post as the early warning provided you with the time to work on a 'break glass in case of emergency' team.
 
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Are we all living in a bit of a La-La Land hoping and expecting the amount of rookies in our GnR teams to actually play round 1?

I have a sneaking suspicion that we will have very few rookies selected due to the lack of development and opportunities the young lads have had to play and train last year.

It may hit home when the one and only practice teams are selected and we have very few rookies playing.

I then hope that you all come back and like this post as the early warning provided you with the time to work on a 'break glass in case of emergency' team.
I love MPM and my current team is only 4 rooks on field. 1 in both defense and forward & 2 mids.
 
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Are we all living in a bit of a La-La Land hoping and expecting the amount of rookies in our GnR teams to actually play round 1?

I have a sneaking suspicion that we will have very few rookies selected due to the lack of development and opportunities the young lads have had to play and train last year.

It may hit home when the one and only practice teams are selected and we have very few rookies playing.

I then hope that you all come back and like this post as the early warning provided you with the time to work on a 'break glass in case of emergency' team.
Well, last year was meant to be a bad year for rookies too, there were still 22 who got a game in Rd 1. I think I only fielded 2 or 3 rookies in Rd 1 (mainly as I knew there would be an early shut down) and I started OK, but fell over badly at the restart.

I still think there will be enough who get games, but some of the current popular choices likely won't be among them.
 
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Are we all living in a bit of a La-La Land hoping and expecting the amount of rookies in our GnR teams to actually play round 1?

I have a sneaking suspicion that we will have very few rookies selected due to the lack of development and opportunities the young lads have had to play and train last year.

It may hit home when the one and only practice teams are selected and we have very few rookies playing.

I then hope that you all come back and like this post as the early warning provided you with the time to work on a 'break glass in case of emergency' team.
Same as everyone year though isn't it ?

But we don't learn , all these RMT with < $ 120k players on the benches , the majority who won't play but wow look at my team 😀

Round 1 scramble , no $$$ and half the 30 players vanish.

It's fun though making all these teams until it starts.
 
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