Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

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KFC SuperCoach 2021: The new rules, scoring adjustments and the players who benefit from them

The return of a standard AFL season means KFC SuperCoach will be different in 2021. Here are the new rules, potential scoring adjustments and the players affected.

The Phantom
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...m/news-story/8b925083884fe5b17e962e83b7cdfb61

THE SCORING
The calculation formula of KFC SuperCoach points – or Champion Data Ranking points - is a complex one but it’s fair to assume that more players had minimal impact, given there was less time to affect the match, at the bottom-end than usual, and that most of the scaling was done at the top-end.

The other main reason, apart from the reduced quarter-length, for a few of the bigger scores from the competition’s best players is that they were, simply, better at performing under pressure.

And, as a result of less total game-time, match pressure was slightly higher in 2020, compared to 2019, meaning players were under more pressure on average for longer periods.

The formula also takes into account game state, closeness of the game and match-weighting, making it difficult to accurately compare even two games from the same round.

But, from the data, it’s safe to conclude the better players produced more high-value acts, compared to the ones who struggled to have any real influence - and were less efficient - under more pressure.

As far as percentages go, they also had more time on the ground than in previous years, with Champion Data’s numbers showing some of the competition’s biggest names spent less time on the bench in 2021.


Can Max Gawn maintain his 140-point KFC SuperCoach average this season? Picture: Michael Klein

With the AFL’s interchange cap reduced from 90 to 75 this year, those percentages may not drop all the way back to 2019 levels.

But it’s still safe to assume, given the same amount of points were awarded, these high-value stats, such as contested possessions, intercepts and hitouts-to-advantage, received a greater weighting of the scores.

A statement backed up by the data which showed the adjusted average of disposals per game was almost identical to 2020.

Last season, there was, on average, 296 disposals recorded per game, the equivalent of 370 in a full time.

The competition average in 2019 was 371.

The conclusion?

We might not see as many huge KFC SuperCoach scores as we did last year – and that, potentially, a number of averages are slightly inflated.

1612043824933.png

THE NEW KICK-IN RULE
This year, the player standing the mark at kick-ins will be required to be 15 metres from the centre of the kick-off line – five metres further back than last year.

On top of the recent introduction of the ‘play-on’ rule, where the player kicking the ball back into play is free to run out of the square without disposing of it, we should see yet another increase in play-on percentage in 2021.

I’ll quote Champion Data’s Fantasy Freako on what this means for KFC SuperCoach: “Just pick Jake Lloyd”.

Over the past three home-and-away seasons, Sydney has taken 698 kick-ins – the most of any side in the competition. Collingwood has taken the fewest (497).

A kick from inside the square is not counted as a disposal.

Regardless, if it hits a target it is worth one point.

But if the player chooses to run out of the square and dispose of the ball, it’s counted like any other stat in general play and, if effective, will be worth more points.

1612043916331.png

THE BYES ARE BACK
As the headline says, the dreaded bye rounds are back for KFC SuperCoach in 2020.

Round 12: Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide

Round 13: Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Richmond, West Coast, Western Bulldogs

Round 14: Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle, Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney

Similar to 2019, KFC SuperCoaches will get one extra trade per bye round and the best-18 scoring system will return.

If you’re after overall rankings glory, it’s all about balance and planning ahead with your trades – more on that later.

For now, here are the players who performed best post-bye round in 2019.

1612044042510.png

THE FIXTURE
The return of 23 home-and-away rounds brings with it the return of standard KFC SuperCoach trade allocation and player price increases.

KFC SuperCoaches will have a total of 30 trades for the season and are allowed to use a maximum of two per week, apart from the bye-rounds, where an extra one – taken from your total of 30 - is available.
 
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Thanks for that...i have him, Taranto, rowell and Sloane vying for a spot in my team. TT is the early race leader even though he burned me terribly last year
I originally looked at Taranto, but selected Dion due to stability of selection in the Richmond side and his ceiling.

The problem with Dion is he finds new and bizarre ways to get injured.
 
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KFC SuperCoach 2021: The new rules, scoring adjustments and the players who benefit from them

The return of a standard AFL season means KFC SuperCoach will be different in 2021. Here are the new rules, potential scoring adjustments and the players affected.

The Phantom
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...m/news-story/8b925083884fe5b17e962e83b7cdfb61

THE SCORING
The calculation formula of KFC SuperCoach points – or Champion Data Ranking points - is a complex one but it’s fair to assume that more players had minimal impact, given there was less time to affect the match, at the bottom-end than usual, and that most of the scaling was done at the top-end.

The other main reason, apart from the reduced quarter-length, for a few of the bigger scores from the competition’s best players is that they were, simply, better at performing under pressure.

And, as a result of less total game-time, match pressure was slightly higher in 2020, compared to 2019, meaning players were under more pressure on average for longer periods.

The formula also takes into account game state, closeness of the game and match-weighting, making it difficult to accurately compare even two games from the same round.

But, from the data, it’s safe to conclude the better players produced more high-value acts, compared to the ones who struggled to have any real influence - and were less efficient - under more pressure.

As far as percentages go, they also had more time on the ground than in previous years, with Champion Data’s numbers showing some of the competition’s biggest names spent less time on the bench in 2021.


Can Max Gawn maintain his 140-point KFC SuperCoach average this season? Picture: Michael Klein

With the AFL’s interchange cap reduced from 90 to 75 this year, those percentages may not drop all the way back to 2019 levels.

But it’s still safe to assume, given the same amount of points were awarded, these high-value stats, such as contested possessions, intercepts and hitouts-to-advantage, received a greater weighting of the scores.

A statement backed up by the data which showed the adjusted average of disposals per game was almost identical to 2020.

Last season, there was, on average, 296 disposals recorded per game, the equivalent of 370 in a full time.

The competition average in 2019 was 371.

The conclusion?

We might not see as many huge KFC SuperCoach scores as we did last year – and that, potentially, a number of averages are slightly inflated.

View attachment 25615

THE NEW KICK-IN RULE
This year, the player standing the mark at kick-ins will be required to be 15 metres from the centre of the kick-off line – five metres further back than last year.

On top of the recent introduction of the ‘play-on’ rule, where the player kicking the ball back into play is free to run out of the square without disposing of it, we should see yet another increase in play-on percentage in 2021.

I’ll quote Champion Data’s Fantasy Freako on what this means for KFC SuperCoach: “Just pick Jake Lloyd”.

Over the past three home-and-away seasons, Sydney has taken 698 kick-ins – the most of any side in the competition. Collingwood has taken the fewest (497).

A kick from inside the square is not counted as a disposal.

Regardless, if it hits a target it is worth one point.

But if the player chooses to run out of the square and dispose of the ball, it’s counted like any other stat in general play and, if effective, will be worth more points.

View attachment 25616

THE BYES ARE BACK
As the headline says, the dreaded bye rounds are back for KFC SuperCoach in 2020.

Round 12: Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide

Round 13: Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Richmond, West Coast, Western Bulldogs

Round 14: Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle, Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney

Similar to 2019, KFC SuperCoaches will get one extra trade per bye round and the best-18 scoring system will return.

If you’re after overall rankings glory, it’s all about balance and planning ahead with your trades – more on that later.

For now, here are the players who performed best post-bye round in 2019.

View attachment 25618

THE FIXTURE
The return of 23 home-and-away rounds brings with it the return of standard KFC SuperCoach trade allocation and player price increases.

KFC SuperCoaches will have a total of 30 trades for the season and are allowed to use a maximum of two per week, apart from the bye-rounds, where an extra one – taken from your total of 30 - is available.
The main thing I took out of that is that Gawn is overpriced
 
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What do people think about Butters? 471k fwd.. coming into his 3rd year with history of:

2019 - 60.5
2020 - 87.7

Good progression and absolutely love the way he plays. 6 tons from 15 games last season with a high of 125 so decent ceiling, and is rated internally about as high as it comes. I know this is can be a tricky stat, but his score per minute was 1.0 last season which means between longer quarters and natural improvement there could be a fair bit of upside there.

Haven't heard much buzz on him so could be an interesting POD option too...
 
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The main thing I took out of that is that Gawn is overpriced
Gawn's role was also a bit more kick behind the play, less rucking when ball in the fwd line was my perception. This may have contributed to a higher TOG as well. He ave 10pts over the prior two years, suggesting $55k over valued.
 
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Gawn's role was also a bit more kick behind the play, less rucking when ball in the fwd line was my perception. This may have contributed to a higher TOG as well. He ave 10pts over the prior two years, suggesting $55k over valued.
Yeah, I think that a 140 average isn't sustainable and expect him to drop a bit but probably not enough to justify using a trade or two to get him back in.
 

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Gawn's role was also a bit more kick behind the play, less rucking when ball in the fwd line was my perception. This may have contributed to a higher TOG as well. He ave 10pts over the prior two years, suggesting $55k over valued.
1612051411539.png

Career high TOG
7th in the comp for contested marks per game
M Gawn= 27th for Total Intercept Marks with 27
 
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What do people think about Butters? 471k fwd.. coming into his 3rd year with history of:

2019 - 60.5
2020 - 87.7

Good progression and absolutely love the way he plays. 6 tons from 15 games last season with a high of 125 so decent ceiling, and is rated internally about as high as it comes. I know this is can be a tricky stat, but his score per minute was 1.0 last season which means between longer quarters and natural improvement there could be a fair bit of upside there.

Haven't heard much buzz on him so could be an interesting POD option too...
In my team atm. No doubt more improvement to come. Unfortunately he plays for Port and not Crows.
 
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Can put a line through Mark Hutchings as a cheap MID/FWD to start the season... Hutchings has had more knee surgery and will miss the start of the season.

From the West Australian...

West Coast premiership tagger Mark Hutchings is set to miss the start of the season after undergoing more knee surgery this week. Hutchings was again struggling with iliotibial band syndrome and had the same knee operation he had last year, albeit on his opposite leg.

There is no fixed timeline on Hutchings’ return, though the Eagles are planning on a cautious rehab schedule for the 29-year-old given his history.
 
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What do people think about Butters? 471k fwd.. coming into his 3rd year with history of:

2019 - 60.5
2020 - 87.7

Good progression and absolutely love the way he plays. 6 tons from 15 games last season with a high of 125 so decent ceiling, and is rated internally about as high as it comes. I know this is can be a tricky stat, but his score per minute was 1.0 last season which means between longer quarters and natural improvement there could be a fair bit of upside there.

Haven't heard much buzz on him so could be an interesting POD option too...
My 2c...Worth investigating the amount of scaling he received, as from memory he was clutch in a few close wins of Port last year.
His CBAs should go up (from about 14% I believe), so natural progression should allow him to at least maintain his average.
 
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I've only been SCing for the last 2 years and know I still have a lot to learn, but can anyone explain to me the love that I'm seeing for the following players?

Zieball
Impey
Daniher
Brown

I know they're cheap(ish) but they're the prices they are for a reason. There's 2 KPF's who are notorious for low scoring, if you look at last years scores then you'd be melting at scores that were lower than rookies, add in durability issues and the fact that they'd have to average over 80 to make 150k. Impey has a history of scoring less than a 1st year rookie small forward in a bottom team and would also have to average over 80 to make 150k. Same with Zieball, hasn't been relevant for a while and I don't trust a 'so-called' role change to defence.

To me they're all options to grab if they show low BE's or consistency, but I, for one, wont be starting any of them.
 
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I've only been SCing for the last 2 years and know I still have a lot to learn, but can anyone explain to me the love that I'm seeing for the following players?

Zieball
Impey
Daniher
Brown

I know they're cheap(ish) but they're the prices they are for a reason. There's 2 KPF's who are notorious for low scoring, if you look at last years scores then you'd be melting at scores that were lower than rookies, add in durability issues and the fact that they'd have to average over 80 to make 150k. Impey has a history of scoring less than a 1st year rookie small forward in a bottom team and would also have to average over 80 to make 150k. Same with Zieball, hasn't been relevant for a while and I don't trust a 'so-called' role change to defence.

To me they're all options to grab if they show low BE's or consistency, but I, for one, wont be starting any of them.
I think the overarching argument for them is that they are options to make money who have good JS, in a line where rookies are notoriously low scoring and unreliable. It always depends on what the quality of cheap rookies is, but most years a few picks like that are useful because if you get exposed to too many rookies on field you can find yourself in trouble quickly if a few of them get dropped at the same time.

As for the individual players, in order of my interest, I would say the arguments for them are:

Ziebell - 259k; needs to ave ~82 to make 150k; ~72 to make 100k. Has consistently averaged 83-90 in seven years previous to last and been relatively durable. Age a negative factor obviously but if recovered from last year's troubles seems a relatively safe bet to play and make reasonable money.

Brown - 260k; same targets as above. Averaged 75-83 in four years previous to last and been very reliable. Possibly moving to a more successful team. KPF means more volatile scoring which makes it risky to have on field but also opens possibility of price spike if a couple of good games come close together.

Daniher - 233k; needs to ave ~78 to make 150k; ~68 to make 100k. Much less reliable body than the two above but very talented and with a best year of 22@86 which would be a huge success if repeated. Moving to a probably top 4 team. Played some ruck in trial game which would add to his appeal if looks like being his true role. Same risk/reward for a KPF as a cash cow.

Impey - 212k; needs to ave ~72 to make 150k; ~62 to make 100k. Role dependent but solid capable player who has posted the numbers required to be a successful pick.
 

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I've only been SCing for the last 2 years and know I still have a lot to learn, but can anyone explain to me the love that I'm seeing for the following players?

Zieball
Impey
Daniher
Brown

I know they're cheap(ish) but they're the prices they are for a reason. There's 2 KPF's who are notorious for low scoring, if you look at last years scores then you'd be melting at scores that were lower than rookies, add in durability issues and the fact that they'd have to average over 80 to make 150k. Impey has a history of scoring less than a 1st year rookie small forward in a bottom team and would also have to average over 80 to make 150k. Same with Zieball, hasn't been relevant for a while and I don't trust a 'so-called' role change to defence.

To me they're all options to grab if they show low BE's or consistency, but I, for one, wont be starting any of them.
Good to question these picks. Still early days but here’s my read.

Ziebell - Has had a good preseason so far and has in fact done 80+ every season since 2012 except for last season. A HB role has traditionally been a good one for SC prospects, even Devon Smith got thrown there last season and was hitting 90-95+ without ever playing it before. Even without that role, Ziebell has done 80-85+ before in a mid/fwd role so still is relevant wherever he plays. Has some injury risk but 250k ish is more a premium rookie price so the risk feels worth the potential reward to me with his scoring history.

Impey - I agree with you on this one, I’m not as bullish on Impey. Only done 70+ once before. Only plus for him might be a HB role but a fwd role would make him completely irrelevant.

Daniher - Can definitely understand the contentiousness of Daniher given injury history and only one year above 80. May not be for everyone but he’s again very cheap at 230k and all he needs is a spike 100+ score to do his job. I like his scoring ceiling for the low outlay and there have been positive reports to date about his fitness but not for everyone.

BBrown - Funnily enough the 260k v 230k price difference with Daniher does make a difference in his assessment for me. Needs to just that little bit more than Daniher to make 150k. Good scoring history around 76-80 and durability prior to last year. Slightly lower ceiling than Daniher I think but is a safer pick than him.

Your last point there confused me though. I think these guys are all mainly start or forget types. If you trade into them, you probably need them to become keepers or close to. It is easier to jump off if you started them.
 
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One last year for Hurn(477k)?:giggle:

I'm liking Houston more this year than last. He or Burton probably take the kick ins if Aliir Aliir replaces Mckenzie in that backline. His midfield attempt failed so he should probably just be a backman for now. I liked his prelim game vs the Tigers. He had 13 rebound 50s that day(Don't know the score though)
 
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