Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

[Connoisseur]

T Hickey:


https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Discover/CD_I294266/Hickey-Tom

 

[Lost In The Sky]

One last year for Hurn(477k)?

I'm liking Houston more this year than last. He or Burton probably take the kick ins if Aliir Aliir replaces Mckenzie in that backline. His midfield attempt failed so he should probably just be a backman for now. I liked his prelim game vs the Tigers. He had 13 rebound 50s that day(Don't know the score though)

Not for me, Think he will start to drop off even more this year, with the possible odd resting to keep the old boy fresh. Also think they will be trying to integrate Witherden in there so there is no drop off next season when Hurn retires. So Hurn might not be as prominent in our back line.

 

[Under The Dome]

Not for me, Think he will start to drop off even more this year, with the possible odd resting to keep the old boy fresh. Also think they will be trying to integrate Witherden in there so there is no drop off next season when Hurn retires. So Hurn might not be as prominent in our back line.

Yeh was just joking around He burnt me the last 2 years. He had those bad scores/injury when i finally picked him up in 2019 and had him as a starter in 2020.

 

[The Banker]

Not for me, Think he will start to drop off even more this year, with the possible odd resting to keep the old boy fresh. Also think they will be trying to integrate Witherden in there so there is no drop off next season when Hurn retires. So Hurn might not be as prominent in our back line.

Thoughts on Liam Duggan LITS? Negative impact with Witherdan coming in, or more free to roam the wing?

 

[wogitalia]

I've only been SCing for the last 2 years and know I still have a lot to learn, but can anyone explain to me the love that I'm seeing for the following players?

Zieball
Impey
Daniher
Brown

I know they're cheap(ish) but they're the prices they are for a reason. There's 2 KPF's who are notorious for low scoring, if you look at last years scores then you'd be melting at scores that were lower than rookies, add in durability issues and the fact that they'd have to average over 80 to make 150k. Impey has a history of scoring less than a 1st year rookie small forward in a bottom team and would also have to average over 80 to make 150k. Same with Zieball, hasn't been relevant for a while and I don't trust a 'so-called' role change to defence.

To me they're all options to grab if they show low BE's or consistency, but I, for one, wont be starting any of them.

I think you're looking at it completely wrong on the money making and also underrating what a full preseason means. The JS these guys possess is also a huge factor, guys can't make any money if they're not playing.

Money making isn't about average, it's about scoring spikes. A couple of hundreds in a 3 week span and they will make more than enough money for their starting price. The big 120+ scores can move guys into big time cash generation.

As for the players, my thoughts:

Daniher - Averaged 85 for a season the last time he was fit and most thought he'd go higher the next year. Brisbane's medical staff are in a different ball park to the Bombers they're that much better and a full preseason is huge for a guy who struggled to do back to back training sessions under the Bombers. More importantly he can score explosively with his play style, as evidenced by the 100 on return last year. Also looks set to be the backup ruck, a role that oozes points. Fitness at round one is the only question mark at his price for me.

Impey - Not as sold here but he's cheap and proven to be able to average 70 and also score spike to a decent extent. He hasn't got as much explosive scoring so he's going to be more of a slow burn. Still, if a 125k rookie offers decent JS I'd take the 100k and move him on personally.

Brown - Very much in the Daniher with a bit less peak ability thrown in. Decent side who should supply him and like Daniher he's absolutely capable of very big scores. Had 3 130+ scores in 2019. He also tends to get on hot streaks. That's perfect for cash generation. He's also very capable of averaging 80, having a slightly above rookie priced player who can do that while spiking into the 120+ scores to really generate cash is invaluable. Realistically you need a couple of rookies you can hold and play towards the byes, the premium on him would be worth it for that.

Ziebell - He goes to an even higher level because he's been a keeper level scorer before. He's absurdly capable of huge scores in the role he played the last few years, he's averaged mid 80s or better for the best part of a decade. Throw in the potential move to an even more lucrative role in which you'd have to think he'd take kick-ins as probably the best kick in the side and would be the primary distributor and, plausibly, interceptor also and he falls to the, if he's fit for round 1, type of selection.


None of that means that things can't go wrong or that these guys work out but realistically at the end of the day their JS puts them comfortably ahead of all rookies despite any durability issues (which realistically only Daniher has, the others all just had a bad season after being durable previously), that most of the top picks this year are KP types only further pushes that out for mine. Realistically for 300k each less I reckon you've got 3 guys capable of averaging within 15 points of most of the premiums this year.

Ultimately you have to take risks somewhere and given the volatility of the premiums this year I think that makes sense to be the forwards, that we've got so many genuinely decent options just adds to that as being a viable strategy imo.

 

[Lost In The Sky]

Thoughts on Liam Duggan LITS? Negative impact with Witherdan coming in, or more free to roam the wing?

I'm excited by him, I reckon he'll benefit from Witherden's arrival and move into the midfield. Avg'd 98 in the last 8 games of the season once he moved more towards the midfield... and no reason to think he won't increase again with an off-season of training in that position. He's 24 which is the perfect age to breakout. Priced at $448,600 or an avg of 83.5... so a bit of value there too if he has the same role as late last season.

He's in my team at the moment.

 

[wogitalia]

I'm excited by him, I reckon he'll benefit from Witherden's arrival and move into the midfield. Avg'd 98 in the last 8 games of the season once he moved more towards the midfield... and no reason to think he won't increase again with an off-season of training in that position. He's 24 which is the perfect age to breakout. Priced at $448,600 or an avg of 83.5... so a bit of value there too if he has the same role as late last season.

He's in my team at the moment.

He's one of the most interesting midpriced options for mine. Hard to squeeze him in currently but will be watching very closely in the preseason.

 

[Manikato1]

I'm excited by him, I reckon he'll benefit from Witherden's arrival and move into the midfield. Avg'd 98 in the last 8 games of the season once he moved more towards the midfield... and no reason to think he won't increase again with an off-season of training in that position. He's 24 which is the perfect age to breakout. Priced at $448,600 or an avg of 83.5... so a bit of value there too if he has the same role as late last season.

He's in my team at the moment.

I have Zilliams at the moment but it was a toss up between him and Duggan. I also think Hunter Clark could be an improver and so if Zilliams does not work out I think there is at least two other options that may show up at around the same price.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

I think you're looking at it completely wrong on the money making and also underrating what a full preseason means. The JS these guys possess is also a huge factor, guys can't make any money if they're not playing.

Money making isn't about average, it's about scoring spikes. A couple of hundreds in a 3 week span and they will make more than enough money for their starting price. The big 120+ scores can move guys into big time cash generation.

As for the players, my thoughts:

Daniher - Averaged 85 for a season the last time he was fit and most thought he'd go higher the next year. Brisbane's medical staff are in a different ball park to the Bombers they're that much better and a full preseason is huge for a guy who struggled to do back to back training sessions under the Bombers. More importantly he can score explosively with his play style, as evidenced by the 100 on return last year. Also looks set to be the backup ruck, a role that oozes points. Fitness at round one is the only question mark at his price for me.

Impey - Not as sold here but he's cheap and proven to be able to average 70 and also score spike to a decent extent. He hasn't got as much explosive scoring so he's going to be more of a slow burn. Still, if a 125k rookie offers decent JS I'd take the 100k and move him on personally.

Brown - Very much in the Daniher with a bit less peak ability thrown in. Decent side who should supply him and like Daniher he's absolutely capable of very big scores. Had 3 130+ scores in 2019. He also tends to get on hot streaks. That's perfect for cash generation. He's also very capable of averaging 80, having a slightly above rookie priced player who can do that while spiking into the 120+ scores to really generate cash is invaluable. Realistically you need a couple of rookies you can hold and play towards the byes, the premium on him would be worth it for that.

Ziebell - He goes to an even higher level because he's been a keeper level scorer before. He's absurdly capable of huge scores in the role he played the last few years, he's averaged mid 80s or better for the best part of a decade. Throw in the potential move to an even more lucrative role in which you'd have to think he'd take kick-ins as probably the best kick in the side and would be the primary distributor and, plausibly, interceptor also and he falls to the, if he's fit for round 1, type of selection.


None of that means that things can't go wrong or that these guys work out but realistically at the end of the day their JS puts them comfortably ahead of all rookies despite any durability issues (which realistically only Daniher has, the others all just had a bad season after being durable previously), that most of the top picks this year are KP types only further pushes that out for mine. Realistically for 300k each less I reckon you've got 3 guys capable of averaging within 15 points of most of the premiums this year.

Ultimately you have to take risks somewhere and given the volatility of the premiums this year I think that makes sense to be the forwards, that we've got so many genuinely decent options just adds to that as being a viable strategy imo.

Fantastic post! Really well thought out and explained, and your summary on each of the players is spot on.
You should continue to post more.

 

[Shannon]

Fantastic post! Really well thought out and explained, and your summary on each of the players is spot on.
You should continue to post more.

Yep, Wogi is a superstar - I have been lucky enough to of known him for many years & his fantasy footy knowledge is absolutely outstanding.

 

[OnTopBar]

I think you're looking at it completely wrong on the money making and also underrating what a full preseason means. The JS these guys possess is also a huge factor, guys can't make any money if they're not playing.

Money making isn't about average, it's about scoring spikes. A couple of hundreds in a 3 week span and they will make more than enough money for their starting price. The big 120+ scores can move guys into big time cash generation.

As for the players, my thoughts:

Daniher - Averaged 85 for a season the last time he was fit and most thought he'd go higher the next year. Brisbane's medical staff are in a different ball park to the Bombers they're that much better and a full preseason is huge for a guy who struggled to do back to back training sessions under the Bombers. More importantly he can score explosively with his play style, as evidenced by the 100 on return last year. Also looks set to be the backup ruck, a role that oozes points. Fitness at round one is the only question mark at his price for me.

Impey - Not as sold here but he's cheap and proven to be able to average 70 and also score spike to a decent extent. He hasn't got as much explosive scoring so he's going to be more of a slow burn. Still, if a 125k rookie offers decent JS I'd take the 100k and move him on personally.

Brown - Very much in the Daniher with a bit less peak ability thrown in. Decent side who should supply him and like Daniher he's absolutely capable of very big scores. Had 3 130+ scores in 2019. He also tends to get on hot streaks. That's perfect for cash generation. He's also very capable of averaging 80, having a slightly above rookie priced player who can do that while spiking into the 120+ scores to really generate cash is invaluable. Realistically you need a couple of rookies you can hold and play towards the byes, the premium on him would be worth it for that.

Ziebell - He goes to an even higher level because he's been a keeper level scorer before. He's absurdly capable of huge scores in the role he played the last few years, he's averaged mid 80s or better for the best part of a decade. Throw in the potential move to an even more lucrative role in which you'd have to think he'd take kick-ins as probably the best kick in the side and would be the primary distributor and, plausibly, interceptor also and he falls to the, if he's fit for round 1, type of selection.


None of that means that things can't go wrong or that these guys work out but realistically at the end of the day their JS puts them comfortably ahead of all rookies despite any durability issues (which realistically only Daniher has, the others all just had a bad season after being durable previously), that most of the top picks this year are KP types only further pushes that out for mine. Realistically for 300k each less I reckon you've got 3 guys capable of averaging within 15 points of most of the premiums this year.

Ultimately you have to take risks somewhere and given the volatility of the premiums this year I think that makes sense to be the forwards, that we've got so many genuinely decent options just adds to that as being a viable strategy imo.

Appreciate your effort and time, I'll certainly take on board what you explained. Was the main reason for the question on the players, thanks.

 

[OnTopBar]

I think the overarching argument for them is that they are options to make money who have good JS, in a line where rookies are notoriously low scoring and unreliable. It always depends on what the quality of cheap rookies is, but most years a few picks like that are useful because if you get exposed to too many rookies on field you can find yourself in trouble quickly if a few of them get dropped at the same time.

As for the individual players, in order of my interest, I would say the arguments for them are:

Ziebell - 259k; needs to ave ~82 to make 150k; ~72 to make 100k. Has consistently averaged 83-90 in seven years previous to last and been relatively durable. Age a negative factor obviously but if recovered from last year's troubles seems a relatively safe bet to play and make reasonable money.

Brown - 260k; same targets as above. Averaged 75-83 in four years previous to last and been very reliable. Possibly moving to a more successful team. KPF means more volatile scoring which makes it risky to have on field but also opens possibility of price spike if a couple of good games come close together.

Daniher - 233k; needs to ave ~78 to make 150k; ~68 to make 100k. Much less reliable body than the two above but very talented and with a best year of 22@86 which would be a huge success if repeated. Moving to a probably top 4 team. Played some ruck in trial game which would add to his appeal if looks like being his true role. Same risk/reward for a KPF as a cash cow.

Impey - 212k; needs to ave ~72 to make 150k; ~62 to make 100k. Role dependent but solid capable player who has posted the numbers required to be a successful pick.

Thanks for putting them into a clearer light for me, cheers.

 

[OnTopBar]

Good to question these picks. Still early days but here’s my read.

Ziebell - Has had a good preseason so far and has in fact done 80+ every season since 2012 except for last season. A HB role has traditionally been a good one for SC prospects, even Devon Smith got thrown there last season and was hitting 90-95+ without ever playing it before. Even without that role, Ziebell has done 80-85+ before in a mid/fwd role so still is relevant wherever he plays. Has some injury risk but 250k ish is more a premium rookie price so the risk feels worth the potential reward to me with his scoring history.

Impey - I agree with you on this one, I’m not as bullish on Impey. Only done 70+ once before. Only plus for him might be a HB role but a fwd role would make him completely irrelevant.

Daniher - Can definitely understand the contentiousness of Daniher given injury history and only one year above 80. May not be for everyone but he’s again very cheap at 230k and all he needs is a spike 100+ score to do his job. I like his scoring ceiling for the low outlay and there have been positive reports to date about his fitness but not for everyone.

BBrown - Funnily enough the 260k v 230k price difference with Daniher does make a difference in his assessment for me. Needs to just that little bit more than Daniher to make 150k. Good scoring history around 76-80 and durability prior to last year. Slightly lower ceiling than Daniher I think but is a safer pick than him.

Your last point there confused me though. I think these guys are all mainly start or forget types. If you trade into them, you probably need them to become keepers or close to. It is easier to jump off if you started them.

Thanks Bomber, a bit of clear thinking from you helps myself and others see properly

 

[BigRuss]

I'm excited by him, I reckon he'll benefit from Witherden's arrival and move into the midfield. Avg'd 98 in the last 8 games of the season once he moved more towards the midfield... and no reason to think he won't increase again with an off-season of training in that position. He's 24 which is the perfect age to breakout. Priced at $448,600 or an avg of 83.5... so a bit of value there too if he has the same role as late last season.

He's in my team at the moment.

My worry with him is that once Yeo is fit again he gets pushed back out. Showed he was more than capable as a mid though, becoming a pretty handy footballer.

 

[Bomber18]

Dear oh dear

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1355989650440028160

 

[Socrates2]

Dear oh dear

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1355989650440028160

Put a line through Lance now.

 

[Leroy]

Possibly a question for the mods... are we going to have individual threads for positional discussion this year or is there not enough need to spread them out at this point?
On one hand it's easier to find things but on the other hand it's more threads to view so :shrug:

 

[Lost In The Sky]

My worry with him is that once Yeo is fit again he gets pushed back out. Showed he was more than capable as a mid though, becoming a pretty handy footballer.

Yeah that's a valid concern. But I think the need to develop more mids is something the Eagles just have to persist with, it showed late last season when our midfield was decimated by injury, and we where scraping the tank for replacements.

Our top line is first class... Shuey, Yeo, Kelly, Gaff with Nic Nat tapping it down to them... Then you have the next level down in Sheed & Redden then a huge gap to our most promising young mid in Xavier O'Neill then a further gap to Ainsworth and the recently drafted Zane Trew.

We need players from other positions to take some midfield minutes during games. Late last season we saw Duggan step up, we saw Liam Ryan up the ground more often, and this season I think Zac Langdon can push up for some mid minutes with his great tank, and Witherden too can push up an try fill that wing position Brander tried but failed to fill early last season.

Yeo I really think is going to struggle to make the start of the season. We are 45 days from Round 1 and he's still only doing running, still being held out of contact drills and match sim. I don't have a lot of faith in our Medical staff getting him right unfortunately.

 

[Ironhawk]

Possibly a question for the mods... are we going to have individual threads for positional discussion this year or is there not enough need to spread them out at this point?
On one hand it's easier to find things but on the other hand it's more threads to view so :shrug:

While we are asking mods questions, is there going to be a SCS group to join in AFL SC this year? I am guessing there will be, and it just hasn't been created yet...

 

[Shaunpro1]

I just dont think Collingwood have the forward line for De Goey to be a mid, at his price he really needs to be a keeper and that won't happen up forward.