Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions
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Wingard will continue to get those bursts through the midfield. I see him averaging somewhere in the 85-90 range. The recent retirement of Scully (and Henderson last year), and moving on Smith I can’t see impacting Wingard too much.
Phillips will take one wing, and likely a combination/rotation of Day/Morrison/Moore/Maginness/Downie will be the wingers.
Phillips will take one wing, and likely a combination/rotation of Day/Morrison/Moore/Maginness/Downie will be the wingers.
Warning: Long and somewhat rambling post ahead!
Personally I think the big thing being lost in the discussion about the plethora of dogs mids is the reduced interchange cap. Clubs aren't going to be able to do short, sharp changes as often so they will need to be strategic about how they bench players and for how long.
Assuming an average AFL quarter length of ~28mins, then there is a total of 112 "bench minutes" per quarter. If 3 players manage to play close to 100% game time (ultra fit, or KPP which can often stay out the majority of the game, etc) then there would be roughly 1 change for each of the 19 players left (75 changes/4 = ~19 per quarter). I reckon it's unlikely someone like Treloar would play exclusively mid except for 1 brief sub for 2-3 minutes as that would mean close to 25 minutes of pure mid time!
What I reckon is more likely is the 7 gun mids (Treloar, Macrae, Bont, Dunkley, Libba, Hunter, Smith) being looked at across 7 positions:
Rover 1
Rover 2
Centre
Wing 1
Wing 2
Somewhere forward
Bench
They will have a starting position which going off the common themes across the site/SC articles I've read looks something like:
Rover 1 Bont
Rover 2 Treloar
Centre Libba
Wing 1 Hunter
Wing 2 Macrae
Forward Dunkley
Bench Smith
And they will effectively cycle as a group, with 1 exception. Hunter is a pure wingman and isn't really suited to any of the other spots (maybe forward).. but I can see it being a case of (sticking with a 28min average for quarters):
Hunter: plays pure wing for 85% of the quarter (~24 mins) and then spends 15% on the bench (~4 mins)
Which means we have a combined 32 "wing minutes" left (across 28mins from wing 2 plus the 4 mins Hunter is on the bench). These I think get split pretty evenly across the two next most logical wingmen - Macrae and Smith.
Macrae - wing 16mins, bench 4 mins.. leaves him 8 minutes
Smith - wing 16 mins (Hunter's wing for 4 mins, Macrae's for the other 12), bench 4 mins.. leaves him 8 minutes.. but given he was on the bench to start, him coming off would be his first rotation under the cap, meaning he likely gets a second spell (for ease, another 4 mins) to end the quarter, and 4 minutes of pure mid time.
If Macrae spends his remaining 8 minutes in the "pure mid" spots (Rovers 1&2, Centre) plus Smith gets 4 mins there, then there is 72 minutes of pure mid time remaining (3 positions x 28 minutes = 84 mins - Macrae/Smith 12 mins = 72 mins).
And we have 4 guys left.. Treloar, Bont, Libba, Dunkley. This will always be open to personal opinion, but the way I see this breaking down is:
Treloar - 20 mins pure mid, 4 mins on the bench, and 4 mins resting forward as a 2nd spell. He is really a mid only type player in my opinion, so it stands to reason he plays majority of his time in the middle.
Bont - 20 mins pure mid 4 mins on the bench and 4 mins resting forward as a 2nd spell. Premier player on their list and we saw what he did in the second half of last year.. he's elite. That said, he is one of the one's I am least confident in my assessment of and can easily see him having extra forward time and the expense of some pure mid time.
Libba - 16 mins as a pure mid as I think he compliments some of the other guys that will cycle through the mids, but is also less suited to going forward effectively in my opinion. his last 12 mins are spent on the bench (4 mins) and resting forward (8 mins). I can see Bont and Libba swapping their forward mins around.
Dunkley - Dunkley skips on bench time as he spends a little more time forward (12 mins) 16 mins pure mid. May still get a small rotation, but I think if he does it comes at the expense of forward time and doesn't impact his pure mid time too much.
Basically in a table...
Now I know it'll never work out that perfectly.. players will get stuck on the bench longer.. injuries will happen.. or just random footy chaos. Not to mention there may be other players who rotate in these spots (I hope not!) but what I did want to highlight is that there should be enough minutes to go around for certain players to score well, while others will definitely be impacted in their role (eg, Macrae).
It's also worth calling out this is a 1 quarter view and the split could change quarter by quarter, plus there is A LOT of assumptions that underpin these ideas, but.. and this is the big one.. it gives me confidence in someone like Dunkley getting enough pure mid minutes to remove any doubts about him being a lock!
Personally I think the big thing being lost in the discussion about the plethora of dogs mids is the reduced interchange cap. Clubs aren't going to be able to do short, sharp changes as often so they will need to be strategic about how they bench players and for how long.
Assuming an average AFL quarter length of ~28mins, then there is a total of 112 "bench minutes" per quarter. If 3 players manage to play close to 100% game time (ultra fit, or KPP which can often stay out the majority of the game, etc) then there would be roughly 1 change for each of the 19 players left (75 changes/4 = ~19 per quarter). I reckon it's unlikely someone like Treloar would play exclusively mid except for 1 brief sub for 2-3 minutes as that would mean close to 25 minutes of pure mid time!
What I reckon is more likely is the 7 gun mids (Treloar, Macrae, Bont, Dunkley, Libba, Hunter, Smith) being looked at across 7 positions:
Rover 1
Rover 2
Centre
Wing 1
Wing 2
Somewhere forward
Bench
They will have a starting position which going off the common themes across the site/SC articles I've read looks something like:
Rover 1 Bont
Rover 2 Treloar
Centre Libba
Wing 1 Hunter
Wing 2 Macrae
Forward Dunkley
Bench Smith
And they will effectively cycle as a group, with 1 exception. Hunter is a pure wingman and isn't really suited to any of the other spots (maybe forward).. but I can see it being a case of (sticking with a 28min average for quarters):
Hunter: plays pure wing for 85% of the quarter (~24 mins) and then spends 15% on the bench (~4 mins)
Which means we have a combined 32 "wing minutes" left (across 28mins from wing 2 plus the 4 mins Hunter is on the bench). These I think get split pretty evenly across the two next most logical wingmen - Macrae and Smith.
Macrae - wing 16mins, bench 4 mins.. leaves him 8 minutes
Smith - wing 16 mins (Hunter's wing for 4 mins, Macrae's for the other 12), bench 4 mins.. leaves him 8 minutes.. but given he was on the bench to start, him coming off would be his first rotation under the cap, meaning he likely gets a second spell (for ease, another 4 mins) to end the quarter, and 4 minutes of pure mid time.
If Macrae spends his remaining 8 minutes in the "pure mid" spots (Rovers 1&2, Centre) plus Smith gets 4 mins there, then there is 72 minutes of pure mid time remaining (3 positions x 28 minutes = 84 mins - Macrae/Smith 12 mins = 72 mins).
And we have 4 guys left.. Treloar, Bont, Libba, Dunkley. This will always be open to personal opinion, but the way I see this breaking down is:
Treloar - 20 mins pure mid, 4 mins on the bench, and 4 mins resting forward as a 2nd spell. He is really a mid only type player in my opinion, so it stands to reason he plays majority of his time in the middle.
Bont - 20 mins pure mid 4 mins on the bench and 4 mins resting forward as a 2nd spell. Premier player on their list and we saw what he did in the second half of last year.. he's elite. That said, he is one of the one's I am least confident in my assessment of and can easily see him having extra forward time and the expense of some pure mid time.
Libba - 16 mins as a pure mid as I think he compliments some of the other guys that will cycle through the mids, but is also less suited to going forward effectively in my opinion. his last 12 mins are spent on the bench (4 mins) and resting forward (8 mins). I can see Bont and Libba swapping their forward mins around.
Dunkley - Dunkley skips on bench time as he spends a little more time forward (12 mins) 16 mins pure mid. May still get a small rotation, but I think if he does it comes at the expense of forward time and doesn't impact his pure mid time too much.
Basically in a table...
Now I know it'll never work out that perfectly.. players will get stuck on the bench longer.. injuries will happen.. or just random footy chaos. Not to mention there may be other players who rotate in these spots (I hope not!) but what I did want to highlight is that there should be enough minutes to go around for certain players to score well, while others will definitely be impacted in their role (eg, Macrae).
It's also worth calling out this is a 1 quarter view and the split could change quarter by quarter, plus there is A LOT of assumptions that underpin these ideas, but.. and this is the big one.. it gives me confidence in someone like Dunkley getting enough pure mid minutes to remove any doubts about him being a lock!
Interesting post.
Didn't Bevo come from the Clarko school of thinking though , and change the centre bounce mix at every opportunity to create confusion to the opposition ?
Thought adaptability and versalitity were the keys to the modern game 🤔
Where do Lipinski & Richards fit ? McLean when he returns.
People still don't understand why Bevo uses Dunkley (and other mids) in the Ruck.
Hopefully with Martin rucking , he actually plays English as a mid/wingman to further mix up and confuse the opposition.
Oops looking at the game tactically wise and not SC wise me bad.
Come on Bevo , forget putting your best clearance players in and around the ball , we just want SC points for Bont , Dunkley & Macrae.
Didn't Bevo come from the Clarko school of thinking though , and change the centre bounce mix at every opportunity to create confusion to the opposition ?
Thought adaptability and versalitity were the keys to the modern game 🤔
Where do Lipinski & Richards fit ? McLean when he returns.
People still don't understand why Bevo uses Dunkley (and other mids) in the Ruck.
Hopefully with Martin rucking , he actually plays English as a mid/wingman to further mix up and confuse the opposition.
Oops looking at the game tactically wise and not SC wise me bad.
Come on Bevo , forget putting your best clearance players in and around the ball , we just want SC points for Bont , Dunkley & Macrae.
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Poor McLean has been shafted to a HFF and may never return - the others have sailed past him I feel.
They should just play Bont as the back-up ruck: he's taller than Dunkley by 3cm and would be better there than stuck up forward as it at least keeps him around the ball for longer
.
English needs to learn how to clunk a contested mark and move to CHF to give them a target, but mostly so they can get all their midfielders in the midfield all the time. Just concede the tap and go from there...
They should just play Bont as the back-up ruck: he's taller than Dunkley by 3cm and would be better there than stuck up forward as it at least keeps him around the ball for longer
.English needs to learn how to clunk a contested mark and move to CHF to give them a target, but mostly so they can get all their midfielders in the midfield all the time. Just concede the tap and go from there...
Poor McLean has been shafted to a HFF and may never return - the others have sailed past him I feel.
They should just play Bont as the back-up ruck: he's taller than Dunkley by 3cm and would be better there than stuck up forward as it at least keeps him around the ball for longer.
English needs to learn how to clunk a contested mark and move to CHF to give them a target, but mostly so they can get all their midfielders in the midfield all the time. Just concede the tap and go from there...
They should just play Bont as the back-up ruck: he's taller than Dunkley by 3cm and would be better there than stuck up forward as it at least keeps him around the ball for longer
.English needs to learn how to clunk a contested mark and move to CHF to give them a target, but mostly so they can get all their midfielders in the midfield all the time. Just concede the tap and go from there...
Same as Lipinski , talent to burn.
I would line them up with Martin , English , Bont & Libba at CBA the majority of time.
Would nearly play 4 wingers in Hunter , Macrae , Richards & Smith , drop the defensive HB and one HF.
Dunkley can play CHF.
What happened to Schache ? Thought they going to Forward triangulate with him , Bruce & Naughton ?
Amazing how the game has changed , Royce Hart 185 , Carey 193 , Bont 192.
It's definitely a simplistic view and there will be guys snipping minutes off here and there.. but I guess my overarching assumption is that Treloar coming in will impact the fringe guys more than the top 7. I would hazard a guess that Bevo and the dogs management are more concerned about keeping those 7 happy than some of the fringe guys, plus there is the inevitable injuries that will occur that will naturally free up minutes as the season progresses.
It was very well thought out and well explained , I just hope Bevo comes in and reads it 😀
Might just be easier to start all 7 of them and ride the highs and lows the entire season , surely it has to balance itself out.
Be interesting though with the decreased rotations whether we start seeing players staying inside F50 more especially in the early rounds or then late in the quarters as fatigue sets in.
Think the endurance beasts will handle it a lot better than the explosive players.
Maybe teams actually change their CBA more often to try and get them extra "rests" forward.
Might just be easier to start all 7 of them and ride the highs and lows the entire season , surely it has to balance itself out.
Be interesting though with the decreased rotations whether we start seeing players staying inside F50 more especially in the early rounds or then late in the quarters as fatigue sets in.
Think the endurance beasts will handle it a lot better than the explosive players.
Maybe teams actually change their CBA more often to try and get them extra "rests" forward.
Funnily enough I actually semi tried that last season starting Bont, Macrae and Dunkly hoping they'd collectively average 330 points a game.. but the covid break ruined it a bit and I ended up using the 5 trades to bail out of it.
I definitely reckon we'll see forward lines being used more to rest players.. I remember when I played juniors the coach often paired the mids with a forward and just said "when you're tired swap with so and so" so I wonder if we'll start to see similar pairs...
The other thing I think will be interesting is we saw last year a lot of stars getting stuck on the bench late when the ball was on the other side of the field, so I wonder if we'll see the best players take their one rest semi early in the quarter and then just drift forward if they need a quick spell to avoid that.
Could actually boost Dunkley's mid mins as his spot is the new mid "bench"...
I definitely reckon we'll see forward lines being used more to rest players.. I remember when I played juniors the coach often paired the mids with a forward and just said "when you're tired swap with so and so" so I wonder if we'll start to see similar pairs...
The other thing I think will be interesting is we saw last year a lot of stars getting stuck on the bench late when the ball was on the other side of the field, so I wonder if we'll see the best players take their one rest semi early in the quarter and then just drift forward if they need a quick spell to avoid that.
Could actually boost Dunkley's mid mins as his spot is the new mid "bench"...
Great post, 1 fundamental flaw though is that there are 4 bench spots, so 448 mintues of bench time to go around which gives roughly 6 minutes per rotation.
It's not a big change though so I don't think it's going to have a big impact. Nowhere near the impact that the reduced quarters did on percentage midfield share last year,
Key is still going to be picking which players can do other things.
For the Dogs:
Treloar - Has never shown anything as a forward that I can recall, with his soft tissue injuries and burst style I'd expect he eats the most rotations of the group.
Dunkley - Is comfortably the best forward relative to his midfield skills. Will have a very high TOG I expect if he plays forward as makes sense (ignoring the "we promise if you stay" element). Nothing about Dunkley, the player, makes sense to get midfield minutes on paper. The positive is very little of what Bevo has done as a coach since 2016 makes sense on paper so the nonsensical option is highly possible.
Libba - He was better than you'd expect as a forward but not good and is far better in the guts, probably can rest forward.
Macrae - Has never shown anything as a forward, his height doesn't really translate to marking ability either. Most natural fit on the wing of the lot other than Hunter. I expect he plays a very high TOG regardless.
Bont - A mediocre forward and elite midfielder but that has never stopped Bevo playing him forward an awful lot. I expect he rests forward a lot as Bevo seems to love him there.
Hunter - Pure winger, not a factor in the contested guys (everyone else).
Smith - Has the skills to be a good forward but hasn't really done it to date and he's the most dynamic of the lot and got the potential to be the best by a decent amount (not necessarily translating to fantasy). If I was the coach he's the priority to develop through there but on seniority he's the one who gets outranked.
Around in circles but it all comes out as "I don't know what happens and everyone is at the high end of their projections" for me. Worst part with Bevo is he might start the right way but if they win a few games he'll get bored and **** with it and if he starts the wrong way (great for Dunkley) they'll probably lose a few games, he'll be under pressure and thus he'll fix it.
In short, Bevo has a very well established record of being insane and insanely untrustworthy and trying to apply any logic to him in the preseason is a fools errand!
Good pick up! I meant to have a line in there that one of my other assumptions is the good players will get more minutes at the average players will eat the pine a bit more.. so for each of these guys take a 4 minute rotation, someone else got stooged with an 8 minute one (more multiple 7 minute ones, etc).
Your last line is probably the most important though.. Bevo is the joker in the pack in all theis attempted logic. I would never use the above to try and justify picking Bont or Macrae in the mids.. but I think Dunkley is a unique one given his forward status, as this has given me enough comfort that the 7 can "fit" in one team.. which prior to this was worrying me.
The other thing as well is, these are more starting positions that reflective of where guys might play. Dunkley may be in a forward rotation but be given a licence to roam up and chase the ball.. so he could snag some extra mid minutes while the ball is in play.
Either way.. I'm personally inclined to think there is enough to warrant risking a healthy dose of Bevo insanity - but completely understand anyone else who isn't sold being reluctant to do the same!
Your last line is probably the most important though.. Bevo is the joker in the pack in all theis attempted logic. I would never use the above to try and justify picking Bont or Macrae in the mids.. but I think Dunkley is a unique one given his forward status, as this has given me enough comfort that the 7 can "fit" in one team.. which prior to this was worrying me.
The other thing as well is, these are more starting positions that reflective of where guys might play. Dunkley may be in a forward rotation but be given a licence to roam up and chase the ball.. so he could snag some extra mid minutes while the ball is in play.
Either way.. I'm personally inclined to think there is enough to warrant risking a healthy dose of Bevo insanity - but completely understand anyone else who isn't sold being reluctant to do the same!
Libba can play forward, probably the best goal kicker out of all the dogs mids. Bont will go forward but shouldn’t be needed as much there with Naughton back in the team. Traded Bont in last season the week Naughton came back and he was killing it from then on. Dunkley will play forward but really once the centre bounce is done most players just roam the ground anyway. Macrae roams the ground, Smith roams the ground, Hunter is a winger and Treloar is a mid. I’d expect Dunkley plays around 50% mid but even when starting forward will push up the ground anyway.
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A MAN has been charged after allegedly breaking into Optus Stadium and driving wildly on the playing surface less than eight weeks out from the start of the AFL season.
Police have confirmed a 29-year-old male has been hit with three charges after crashing through a boom gate and evading staff on Monday February 1.
"It will be alleged that at around 11:30am the man drove a black Ford Ranger at speed through a boom gate and a shutter door at the stadium before driving recklessly on the oval," WA Police told AFL.com.au in a statement.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/547563/hoon-charged-after-breaking-into-optus-stadium-driving-recklessly
Police have confirmed a 29-year-old male has been hit with three charges after crashing through a boom gate and evading staff on Monday February 1.
"It will be alleged that at around 11:30am the man drove a black Ford Ranger at speed through a boom gate and a shutter door at the stadium before driving recklessly on the oval," WA Police told AFL.com.au in a statement.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/547563/hoon-charged-after-breaking-into-optus-stadium-driving-recklessly
I'd have Rayner ahead of Wingard narrowly. Rayner at 21 could be in your team for quite some time and I expect him to continue to get more midfield minutes this season. (He got more mid time in the second half of 2020 at the expense of Mitch Robinson.)
With Impey training with the defenders, I can see Wingard getting stuck forward for much of this season. Yes he will get runs through the midfield, but at nearly 28 years of age, I'm not sure how many great mid seasons he has left. Which is a real shame as he does score well when playing there.
With Impey training with the defenders, I can see Wingard getting stuck forward for much of this season. Yes he will get runs through the midfield, but at nearly 28 years of age, I'm not sure how many great mid seasons he has left. Which is a real shame as he does score well when playing there.
Yeah I thought Robinson got some CBA's early in the season and then didnt later (hence his drop off in SC points). I still like Rayner (particularly in a keeper league) but even in a single season draft. He's currently the 28th forward being taken off the table in mock drafts and I think he can potentially be the 15th-20th top forward by the end of the season.
