Position SC 2021: Defender Discussion
- Thread starter THCLT
- Start date
I want to see a full time mid role, preferably resting forward.
If he's a mid I think he can go 110+ without too much effort. Elite ball winner and ball user is pretty much SC pureness. Was the elite midfielder of his draft, yes ahead of Oliver even and it was well deserved. Has done nothing to disprove that except endure Horse being Horse by playing out of position and excelling at it.
But Horse remains a problem and can't be trusted. The interview kind of sums it up really, Horse will always sacrifice the midfield as the least important part of the field in his mind to strengthen other positions, he's kind of the opposite to most coaches who want their best players there and so it remains a really solid chance that Mills plays defense.
And I agree that he's overpriced in that role, he was a big ratio benefactor last year (he was better in general as well) and I think he's probably a 85-95 guy in that role. 95 you can probably survive but any lower and it's a problematic starting pick.
Basically right now his range is 85-120 for mine which is a massive scope and entirely role dependent as the upper half is entirely one role and the bottom half is almost exclusively the other role, which is the role he's always played. Realistically I'd say he's around 90 as a defender and around 110 as a midfielder.
Petracca last year is a very good comparison but so is Petracca in 2019 at the same time. He'll be a star midfielder when he finally moves there.
If he's a mid I think he can go 110+ without too much effort. Elite ball winner and ball user is pretty much SC pureness. Was the elite midfielder of his draft, yes ahead of Oliver even and it was well deserved. Has done nothing to disprove that except endure Horse being Horse by playing out of position and excelling at it.
But Horse remains a problem and can't be trusted. The interview kind of sums it up really, Horse will always sacrifice the midfield as the least important part of the field in his mind to strengthen other positions, he's kind of the opposite to most coaches who want their best players there and so it remains a really solid chance that Mills plays defense.
And I agree that he's overpriced in that role, he was a big ratio benefactor last year (he was better in general as well) and I think he's probably a 85-95 guy in that role. 95 you can probably survive but any lower and it's a problematic starting pick.
Basically right now his range is 85-120 for mine which is a massive scope and entirely role dependent as the upper half is entirely one role and the bottom half is almost exclusively the other role, which is the role he's always played. Realistically I'd say he's around 90 as a defender and around 110 as a midfielder.
Petracca last year is a very good comparison but so is Petracca in 2019 at the same time. He'll be a star midfielder when he finally moves there.
So if the best case eventuates and he goes at 110, we bring him in for a ~60k loss. On the flip side if he stays back we’ve got an 80ppg plum stuck at D6 for a significant money loss. Just makes 0 sense as a starting pick.
He may have been rated highly in his draft year but hindsight shows us that was a relatively weak crop, so much so that 2 KPP went at 1 & 2. That being said he’s still arguably in the top 5 from that year.
He’s shown all the attributes of being a fine footballer and I have no doubt he’ll eventually become one but we’re still waiting for him to put it all together. At 540k in a year that were spoiled for defenders, I just can’t see the wisdom in starting him on a promise from a coach who has been promising us Heeney the midfielder for 4 years.
He may have been rated highly in his draft year but hindsight shows us that was a relatively weak crop, so much so that 2 KPP went at 1 & 2. That being said he’s still arguably in the top 5 from that year.
He’s shown all the attributes of being a fine footballer and I have no doubt he’ll eventually become one but we’re still waiting for him to put it all together. At 540k in a year that were spoiled for defenders, I just can’t see the wisdom in starting him on a promise from a coach who has been promising us Heeney the midfielder for 4 years.
- Joined
- 21 May 2012
- Messages
- 22,312
- Likes
- 31,158
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
@wogitalia
Hi mate
Can I get your thoughts on the Giants defence please.
Given Corr (15 games) , Shaw (17) & Williams (11) have all gone and queries on Whitfield certainly opens up some opportunities for SC.
I suspect Davis , Haynes & Taylor are locks for 3 spots.
So thoughts on Ash (12) , Cumming (3) , Idun (2) & Kennedy (6) and who might play initially.
Buntine (0) still their as well.
Someone will benefit form defender points.
Is Wehr a lock ?
Cheers
* Kennedy is a mid for SC purposes
Hi mate
Can I get your thoughts on the Giants defence please.
Given Corr (15 games) , Shaw (17) & Williams (11) have all gone and queries on Whitfield certainly opens up some opportunities for SC.
I suspect Davis , Haynes & Taylor are locks for 3 spots.
So thoughts on Ash (12) , Cumming (3) , Idun (2) & Kennedy (6) and who might play initially.
Buntine (0) still their as well.
Someone will benefit form defender points.
Is Wehr a lock ?
Cheers
* Kennedy is a mid for SC purposes
Last edited:
Think he could be the one who could benefit on the end of some scoring chains especially when Gray is in the mids and if Rozee is up the ground.
Still remember years ago when they played with a open F50 to let Gray , Monfries & Wingard run amok.
Schulz used to actually play as a old fashioned CHF.
Then they recruited Ryder & Dixon and their F focus/structure changed.
Interesting if they go Ladhams/Georgiadis or go the extra small/medium again.
Fantasia similar priced to Cumming & H Young , DPP a bonus especially if Chugg , Laurie & Worrell appear.
Agree he has been totally dismissed too easily.
Still remember years ago when they played with a open F50 to let Gray , Monfries & Wingard run amok.
Schulz used to actually play as a old fashioned CHF.
Then they recruited Ryder & Dixon and their F focus/structure changed.
Interesting if they go Ladhams/Georgiadis or go the extra small/medium again.
Fantasia similar priced to Cumming & H Young , DPP a bonus especially if Chugg , Laurie & Worrell appear.
Agree he has been totally dismissed too easily.
To be fair, I don't recall Horse ever promising Heeney midfield minutes, that's more people applying logic and common sense in evaluating him as a player, aka he's been utterly elite when playing on ball for bursts so you'd think the coach would want that more... again, but Horse... Heeney's inability to have a preseason also sure doesn't help his case.
I think the reward is well and truly there if his role actually looks legitimate but if there's any doubt I agree entirely, may as well wait and see. Can get Doch or Williams who are both underpriced with more role certainty (Williams can score 100 in either role, Doch proven 100+ in the past).
For mine I'd want to see...
Mills - Full time midfield no time in defense, resting either forward or bench.
Rampe/Melican/McCartin - Playing the 3 tall roles with Rampe in an intercept role.
Dawson/Gould - Played in defense in a secondary intercept role, essentially Rampe steps to Mill's role and one of those two steps to Rampe, fine with the reverse also.
Cunningham - Defense, gives another senior player down there and would mean plenty of experience with Lloyd and Rampe. (To be fair, I'd rather not see Cunningham in the team but if he has to be, this would be the ideal).
That's the storm I probably need to see for me to believe in Mills to midfield full time. If we play Rampe as the 2nd tall he loses his intercept largely and I think we'd need Dawson and Gould but would think what that really means is that Mills is going there.
Again, think he's got Petracca upside in the midfield. The problem is he's overpriced on the other role if he doesn't get it.
I'm more worried if he played too well in the midfield he'd go back to defense, can't have players winning clearances and attacking by foot! I wish I was kidding.
One positive of Horse is he is very stubborn if he does make any changes and will stick with them generally. See Florent on ball for the last season and a half despite basically going backwards as a player or Cunningham in the team for 5 years now...
It's a serious unknown to me.
Davis I believe is still not training, so throws some doubt there but he's in when fit. Taylor is and is a lock. Haynes is a lock.
I imagine we see Keeffe in place of Davis if he's not right. Perhaps Buntine and push the other two up a tall. Don't think there's a lot of fantasy relevance in that position.
Rebounding defenders are going to be very interesting... I wouldn't be surprised at all if Finlayson went back to defense. They've got very little penetration in the group of small/mid defenders and with Himmelberg, Hogan and Riccardi I'd say they've got enough forwards, he could still even operate as a 2nd ruck quite easily from the 3rd/4th defender spot.
Sam Reid played defense to close out the year and was pretty solid (not fantasy wise). Kennedy has been decent back there and always seemed like a dashing player not allowed to because Williams/Whitfield/Shaw were already doing it. Neither of those two are fantasy relevant if they get the gig.
Ash I love as a player and clearly they do to, confirmed he's training for defense at this point. He's the one with real speed and kicking penetration who makes sense to let off the leash. They had him focused entirely on defensive accountability last year but that's not his real strengths and I think they need those aspects more this year. Always hard for young guys to find the balance but I don't see any reason he couldn't produce similar to Shaw a couple of years ago, mid 80s basically but I think realistically you're looking at first year at the Blues Docherty type production, he's, imo, a similar calibre of player. Unfortunately at his price I don't think that equation really works.
Perryman could play more defense but I think that would be counter-intuitive to what they want from him.
Wehr has to be in the mix but he's one of those weird mature agers who was so far behind as a draft kid that even after 3 or 4 years of physical development he's still super underdeveloped, he's 9/12 kg lighter than Ash/Cumming, neither of whom are exactly big, even Whitfield has 10kg on him. Basically he's a mature ager who might not be physically ready. In the mix though and his speed/kicking may have him further up the list as they prioritise that having lost a fair bit of it.
Cumming makes a lot of sense to me also and I'd be leaning towards him and Ash with probably Kennedy as the 3 smalls and then probably Reid/Buntine for a bit more defensive accountability and strength. Cumming may be fantasy relevant if there's a real lack of rookies and he looks to have a good role, has put up a few solid scores.
Tough to pick though, think you've got the 3 KP slots taken care of basically and then it's the balance between attack and defense and how they want that tilted. How long Whitfield misses also could be a big factor, if he's there he'll sweep and be the primary rebounder, imo, but if he's not they may force selections to improvise that a bit until he's back which will make any starting side an unreliable read at best.
In short, Wehr is in the the mix at least but I struggle to see them prioritise him over Ash (top 4 pick as a HBF is absurd and shows how highly he's rated) or Cumming who was a pick 20 they've put 4 odd years of development into. Wehr does some nice things but he's very slightly built which could be an issue.
I think the reward is well and truly there if his role actually looks legitimate but if there's any doubt I agree entirely, may as well wait and see. Can get Doch or Williams who are both underpriced with more role certainty (Williams can score 100 in either role, Doch proven 100+ in the past).
For mine I'd want to see...
Mills - Full time midfield no time in defense, resting either forward or bench.
Rampe/Melican/McCartin - Playing the 3 tall roles with Rampe in an intercept role.
Dawson/Gould - Played in defense in a secondary intercept role, essentially Rampe steps to Mill's role and one of those two steps to Rampe, fine with the reverse also.
Cunningham - Defense, gives another senior player down there and would mean plenty of experience with Lloyd and Rampe. (To be fair, I'd rather not see Cunningham in the team but if he has to be, this would be the ideal).
That's the storm I probably need to see for me to believe in Mills to midfield full time. If we play Rampe as the 2nd tall he loses his intercept largely and I think we'd need Dawson and Gould but would think what that really means is that Mills is going there.
Again, think he's got Petracca upside in the midfield. The problem is he's overpriced on the other role if he doesn't get it.
I'm more worried if he played too well in the midfield he'd go back to defense, can't have players winning clearances and attacking by foot! I wish I was kidding.
One positive of Horse is he is very stubborn if he does make any changes and will stick with them generally. See Florent on ball for the last season and a half despite basically going backwards as a player or Cunningham in the team for 5 years now...
It's a serious unknown to me.
Davis I believe is still not training, so throws some doubt there but he's in when fit. Taylor is and is a lock. Haynes is a lock.
I imagine we see Keeffe in place of Davis if he's not right. Perhaps Buntine and push the other two up a tall. Don't think there's a lot of fantasy relevance in that position.
Rebounding defenders are going to be very interesting... I wouldn't be surprised at all if Finlayson went back to defense. They've got very little penetration in the group of small/mid defenders and with Himmelberg, Hogan and Riccardi I'd say they've got enough forwards, he could still even operate as a 2nd ruck quite easily from the 3rd/4th defender spot.
Sam Reid played defense to close out the year and was pretty solid (not fantasy wise). Kennedy has been decent back there and always seemed like a dashing player not allowed to because Williams/Whitfield/Shaw were already doing it. Neither of those two are fantasy relevant if they get the gig.
Ash I love as a player and clearly they do to, confirmed he's training for defense at this point. He's the one with real speed and kicking penetration who makes sense to let off the leash. They had him focused entirely on defensive accountability last year but that's not his real strengths and I think they need those aspects more this year. Always hard for young guys to find the balance but I don't see any reason he couldn't produce similar to Shaw a couple of years ago, mid 80s basically but I think realistically you're looking at first year at the Blues Docherty type production, he's, imo, a similar calibre of player. Unfortunately at his price I don't think that equation really works.
Perryman could play more defense but I think that would be counter-intuitive to what they want from him.
Wehr has to be in the mix but he's one of those weird mature agers who was so far behind as a draft kid that even after 3 or 4 years of physical development he's still super underdeveloped, he's 9/12 kg lighter than Ash/Cumming, neither of whom are exactly big, even Whitfield has 10kg on him. Basically he's a mature ager who might not be physically ready. In the mix though and his speed/kicking may have him further up the list as they prioritise that having lost a fair bit of it.
Cumming makes a lot of sense to me also and I'd be leaning towards him and Ash with probably Kennedy as the 3 smalls and then probably Reid/Buntine for a bit more defensive accountability and strength. Cumming may be fantasy relevant if there's a real lack of rookies and he looks to have a good role, has put up a few solid scores.
Tough to pick though, think you've got the 3 KP slots taken care of basically and then it's the balance between attack and defense and how they want that tilted. How long Whitfield misses also could be a big factor, if he's there he'll sweep and be the primary rebounder, imo, but if he's not they may force selections to improvise that a bit until he's back which will make any starting side an unreliable read at best.
In short, Wehr is in the the mix at least but I struggle to see them prioritise him over Ash (top 4 pick as a HBF is absurd and shows how highly he's rated) or Cumming who was a pick 20 they've put 4 odd years of development into. Wehr does some nice things but he's very slightly built which could be an issue.
Cheers mate , thanks for the detailed reply.
Opportunity definitely their at the Giants , just a matter of starting or jumping on the right one.
If we actually got 5 x $ 123,900.00 or less defensive rookies named for Round 1 I might have hold my D4 spot for a few rounds.
Haha I can only hope.
They knocked back Cumming's request to transfer to Adelaide a few seasons ago (wanted to be closer to mummy in Broken Hill , mustn't own a modern phone to communicate) so time he paid them back.
Certainly showed what he is capable of scoring wise in the last game last season.
Harmes , Sholl , Ash , Milera , Cumming , Young will be interesting this season.
Opportunity definitely their at the Giants , just a matter of starting or jumping on the right one.
If we actually got 5 x $ 123,900.00 or less defensive rookies named for Round 1 I might have hold my D4 spot for a few rounds.
Haha I can only hope.
They knocked back Cumming's request to transfer to Adelaide a few seasons ago (wanted to be closer to mummy in Broken Hill , mustn't own a modern phone to communicate) so time he paid them back.
Certainly showed what he is capable of scoring wise in the last game last season.
Harmes , Sholl , Ash , Milera , Cumming , Young will be interesting this season.
Yeah Cumming is the one young guy they've clung to so they obviously rate him. Ash they took at pick 4, can't be many HBF that get taken at 4 in the leagues history.
I'm kind of the opposite, I only want forward rookies, happy to pick 5 premium defenders really, though a couple of my favourites have fallen away!
I'm kind of the opposite, I only want forward rookies, happy to pick 5 premium defenders really, though a couple of my favourites have fallen away!
I think he probably should be. Tough because he's still really good but I'd like to see him work from the forward line a bit more. The real question is for who though. If Mills or Heeney, who are better than him at this point, are taking those minutes, then sure. If it's Florent/Rowbottom types who look middling players or Hewett, who is a middling player, then I don't get the point, JPK is still on a different tier to those guys. For mine our first midfield group should be Heeney, Parker and Mills but there's no chance of that with Horse but it would be among the very best first 3s in the league if it happened. Kennedy and Papley would be the main two of the 2nd group for mine with Hewett probably the next best but Florent I think adds a better mix. I'd like to see more of Stephens through there also, he looks special. Dawson I think will be used outside but could also offer something in there.
Ultimately our ruck situation is going to make anything difficult though.
Blakey will play on a wing and push into the contest when it's on his side. His speed and kicking are his two major assets and matched against wingers his marking will be a big asset also (it's not a strength against quality defenders but against a Gaff type he's got a huge aerial advantage). Blakey for mine has too much downside risk and is too unproven a scorer or I'd be all over him. His tackling technique is also horrific and he injured himself a couple of times last year with it so it's a genuine worry to me if he's going to be around the ball more, I'd hope it's been worked on but he does literally everything wrong that you can and given how slight he is that's a really big problem. Combined with how hard he actually goes at it he's a real risk of a broken neck, shoulder injuries and concussions, it's scary to watch an AFL player tackle that poorly. Wouldn't shock me if he averaged in the mid 90s though given his player profile, strong marking, elite kicking and hard at it is a very strong combination but I wouldn't be any more shocked if he averaged in the 60s given his ability to go completely missing historically (albeit different role).
Realistically you're probably looking at something similar to Daicos as a likely outcome, Daicos I think has shown a bit more natural ability to find the ball but Blakey should draw it more with his leading and size and those extra points could quickly counter a few touches more. The real question on Blakey assuming he's a 75-85 type is can he put up big scores to price spike. The 111 and 90 last year do bode well from that front but there were a couple of pretty ordinary scores around those which really need to lift higher.
Ultimately our ruck situation is going to make anything difficult though.
Blakey will play on a wing and push into the contest when it's on his side. His speed and kicking are his two major assets and matched against wingers his marking will be a big asset also (it's not a strength against quality defenders but against a Gaff type he's got a huge aerial advantage). Blakey for mine has too much downside risk and is too unproven a scorer or I'd be all over him. His tackling technique is also horrific and he injured himself a couple of times last year with it so it's a genuine worry to me if he's going to be around the ball more, I'd hope it's been worked on but he does literally everything wrong that you can and given how slight he is that's a really big problem. Combined with how hard he actually goes at it he's a real risk of a broken neck, shoulder injuries and concussions, it's scary to watch an AFL player tackle that poorly. Wouldn't shock me if he averaged in the mid 90s though given his player profile, strong marking, elite kicking and hard at it is a very strong combination but I wouldn't be any more shocked if he averaged in the 60s given his ability to go completely missing historically (albeit different role).
Realistically you're probably looking at something similar to Daicos as a likely outcome, Daicos I think has shown a bit more natural ability to find the ball but Blakey should draw it more with his leading and size and those extra points could quickly counter a few touches more. The real question on Blakey assuming he's a 75-85 type is can he put up big scores to price spike. The 111 and 90 last year do bode well from that front but there were a couple of pretty ordinary scores around those which really need to lift higher.
