Opinion SC 2021: Rate My Team
- Thread starter KLo30
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Thanks for posting that, great to see different structures and really does make you think about all the options.
Not sure I’m a fan of completing the backline from day 1. No room for movement there and it is handy to have downgrade options around all the lines as they come up throughout the season, I mean you’d be spewing if someone like Gould came in round 3 and started punching out 80+ scores and you’d have to either downgrade a premium or miss a cash cow unless you can pull a DPP.
Love it though, could be hard work trying to get Gawn, Grundy and Neale into yr team if they fire, I know you can’t have them all but these are the players that can make for a long year if you don’t have them.
Not sure I’m a fan of completing the backline from day 1. No room for movement there and it is handy to have downgrade options around all the lines as they come up throughout the season, I mean you’d be spewing if someone like Gould came in round 3 and started punching out 80+ scores and you’d have to either downgrade a premium or miss a cash cow unless you can pull a DPP.
Love it though, could be hard work trying to get Gawn, Grundy and Neale into yr team if they fire, I know you can’t have them all but these are the players that can make for a long year if you don’t have them.
Well, his is where I am at this moment.
Lots left in the bank to make necessary changes as needed.
Def. Not many rookies Considered Young & Cumming but not keepers. Gone with Cox and Kos. Hoping we get some early mail on rookies for round 1. Good chance I play a loop at D8.
Rookies selected have the early games, if not selected I have other options as team lists drop. Haven’t gone Cripps, price is tempting but the blues have a lot of options to run through the mids. Considering Walsh as he can run all day and no chance of resting forward.
Kelly worth the punt ...no injury setbacks this season and can go large.
Rucks....so many options, Have started with Gawn due to his early opening rounds, the concern is less stoppages means less points. Marshall stress fractures in the feet is not good for AFL Football and you know Ryder is going to miss games. Darcy hasn’t played preseason and expect he won’t be considered until a few weeks into the season, but then the coach will realize Meeks offers more to the team.
FWD, no Daniher, looked lazy and did just enough to keep his place. Offered nothing on the lead and has lost his leap. Like the look of Bergman but with the late game a bit risky.
Big advantage if you can have the time to monitor the teams as they drop RD1 and make the changes. Hence, I have applied for annual leave.
Lots left in the bank to make necessary changes as needed.
Def. Not many rookies Considered Young & Cumming but not keepers. Gone with Cox and Kos. Hoping we get some early mail on rookies for round 1. Good chance I play a loop at D8.
Rookies selected have the early games, if not selected I have other options as team lists drop. Haven’t gone Cripps, price is tempting but the blues have a lot of options to run through the mids. Considering Walsh as he can run all day and no chance of resting forward.
Kelly worth the punt ...no injury setbacks this season and can go large.
Rucks....so many options, Have started with Gawn due to his early opening rounds, the concern is less stoppages means less points. Marshall stress fractures in the feet is not good for AFL Football and you know Ryder is going to miss games. Darcy hasn’t played preseason and expect he won’t be considered until a few weeks into the season, but then the coach will realize Meeks offers more to the team.
FWD, no Daniher, looked lazy and did just enough to keep his place. Offered nothing on the lead and has lost his leap. Like the look of Bergman but with the late game a bit risky.
Big advantage if you can have the time to monitor the teams as they drop RD1 and make the changes. Hence, I have applied for annual leave.
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As absurd as it sounds, 700 from Gawn is literally just getting fair value on the investment. To go anywhere near the rookies production he'd have to be putting up probably 180 a week and even that's assuming the rookies only manage 63 for the 124k guys or 59 for Hunter which seems on the low end of reasonable outcomes from them.
Captaincy is a factor but even then at 140 a week he's going to get you 100 points in that period over someone taking 120 each week while Hunter scoring 65 is going to generate 230 points above his value, way ahead even with captaincy in the equation.
Gawn's absolute score only truly matters when sides are finished, until that point the relative value of the points moves the needle more. It's the same reason a 350k guy can be a keeper while scoring less than a 550k starting pick. Economics 101, allocation of finite resources
Captaincy is a factor but even then at 140 a week he's going to get you 100 points in that period over someone taking 120 each week while Hunter scoring 65 is going to generate 230 points above his value, way ahead even with captaincy in the equation.
Gawn's absolute score only truly matters when sides are finished, until that point the relative value of the points moves the needle more. It's the same reason a 350k guy can be a keeper while scoring less than a 550k starting pick. Economics 101, allocation of finite resources
I've currently got Neale M1 and my M5 is Josh Kelly, so I'm happy I've got super-mids covered for captaincy options. Even so, I'll assume forgoing Gawn costs me 10-20 points a week in captain's scores, like you've said.
For the first 7 rounds maybe, a realistic on-field XvY is something like
Gawn, J Clark, FWD Rookie (135 + 75 + 55 = 265)
vs
Ridley, Dusty, Hunter (100, 100, 70?? = 270)
But give the Gawn team some bonus points for captaincy and it comes out ahead... so option 1 wins.
However, option 1 needs two upgrades (one from a mid-pricer), so lets assume 4 trades. Option 2 needs Gawn, so maybe three trades to get there. So option 2 wins on that front.
Option 2 carries more risk (rookie rucks on field), option 1 is safer (picking a consistently super high scoring SC player). So it's option 1 again.
So pretty line-ball call either way I think. Probably almost comes down to how happy I am with Jordan Clark after all that!
Might see if this structure is viable to start
3-1-4
6-0-5
1-0-2
1-1-3-3
= 11-2-3-6 onfield
D: LAIRD * , DANIEL , STEWART , Duggan , Butts , Cox * / Briggs * , Koschitzke
M: MERRETT , J KELLY , PENDLEBURY , BOAK , GAFF , BRAYSHAW (FRE) , Campbell * , Powell / Brockman * , Downie , Gulden
R: GRUNDY , Flynn / Meek
F: DANGERFIELD * , J Cameron , Fantasia * , Ziebell , Daniher , Warner / Fullarton * , Rowe
🏦 $ 24,900.00
3-1-4
6-0-5
1-0-2
1-1-3-3
= 11-2-3-6 onfield
D: LAIRD * , DANIEL , STEWART , Duggan , Butts , Cox * / Briggs * , Koschitzke
M: MERRETT , J KELLY , PENDLEBURY , BOAK , GAFF , BRAYSHAW (FRE) , Campbell * , Powell / Brockman * , Downie , Gulden
R: GRUNDY , Flynn / Meek
F: DANGERFIELD * , J Cameron , Fantasia * , Ziebell , Daniher , Warner / Fullarton * , Rowe
🏦 $ 24,900.00
I was thinking along these lines last night and concluded that it wasn't a clear win either way on points.
The common rookie R2 team I expect would upgrade a mid priced defender to a premium and add a forward premium exactly as you have shown in your example.
From there it's just a PPG estimate on each element and I think on your numbers I would bump up Clark to 85 and put the Gawn team just in front. It all comes down to what will that rookie ruck score and what other rookie are you taking off field. Pruess last year averaged 62 in 3 games. No 1 ruck role would add a bit so your 70 for Hunter seems about right.
The common rookie R2 team I expect would upgrade a mid priced defender to a premium and add a forward premium exactly as you have shown in your example.
From there it's just a PPG estimate on each element and I think on your numbers I would bump up Clark to 85 and put the Gawn team just in front. It all comes down to what will that rookie ruck score and what other rookie are you taking off field. Pruess last year averaged 62 in 3 games. No 1 ruck role would add a bit so your 70 for Hunter seems about right.
Yeah Treacy/Fullerton would have to be there to do it.
I keep reverting back to my 6 deep defence as I like so many premiums there and the cupboard is looking bare for rookies.
Could give me an advantage if others are fielding D6s that are putting up 30 to 40 point games and the preseason trend with running defenders continues.
And if a defender rookie shows up I can use my FD Fyfe to swing Laird into the middle.
Even if I end up with Gawn back in my team I'll likely stick with the 6 defender setup.
It's a risky ploy, but if it comes off I'm laughing.
No chance I'm ditching Dusty or Dunkley... Those two are safe as houses in my team.
I keep reverting back to my 6 deep defence as I like so many premiums there and the cupboard is looking bare for rookies.
Could give me an advantage if others are fielding D6s that are putting up 30 to 40 point games and the preseason trend with running defenders continues.
And if a defender rookie shows up I can use my FD Fyfe to swing Laird into the middle.
Even if I end up with Gawn back in my team I'll likely stick with the 6 defender setup.
It's a risky ploy, but if it comes off I'm laughing.
No chance I'm ditching Dusty or Dunkley... Those two are safe as houses in my team.
Defence will be interesting to see how people start if the rookies appear and they don't trust their score.
With 10-12 (maybe more) viable premium defenders locking in 6 from the start you would have to be 100% sure you have the right 6 from the start.
I guess looking at your 6 , no Ridley , Ryan , Whitfield for example.
Moving Laird to the mids , then costs you a higher scoring mid.
Looked at starting 4-6 myself , then either the H Clark/Duggan at D5-6 price types who probably need to be upgraded in any place , down to the Cumming/Young price types even to Buckley/J Clark which might only be a 70-80.
Butts , Cox , Koschitzke might be 55-60 which is not far off in any place (make the points up elsewhere).
Briggs maybe a option.
Dare I say Gould , Highmore & Jones.
Might all come down to how many of Brookman , Downie , Gulden , Lazarro , Scott , Sharp , Smith etc price types are named for our mid bench to see how many premiums people go , if less than 3 of them get named for Round 1 things could get very interesting quickly.
Time to await rookie Round 1 Announcements now before confidently locking in any player or structure.
With 10-12 (maybe more) viable premium defenders locking in 6 from the start you would have to be 100% sure you have the right 6 from the start.
I guess looking at your 6 , no Ridley , Ryan , Whitfield for example.
Moving Laird to the mids , then costs you a higher scoring mid.
Looked at starting 4-6 myself , then either the H Clark/Duggan at D5-6 price types who probably need to be upgraded in any place , down to the Cumming/Young price types even to Buckley/J Clark which might only be a 70-80.
Butts , Cox , Koschitzke might be 55-60 which is not far off in any place (make the points up elsewhere).
Briggs maybe a option.
Dare I say Gould , Highmore & Jones.
Might all come down to how many of Brookman , Downie , Gulden , Lazarro , Scott , Sharp , Smith etc price types are named for our mid bench to see how many premiums people go , if less than 3 of them get named for Round 1 things could get very interesting quickly.
Time to await rookie Round 1 Announcements now before confidently locking in any player or structure.
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