Brownlow Discussion

kennychao

kennychao

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#1
Hey guys

Have had a quick search but can’t seem to find any (updated) Brownlow threads

With 4 more rounds until the end of the season, I do believe this allows enough lead up time to select some value

I’m really liking Walsh $10 & Steele $15 ($17 on LB) for value picks at the moment

https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/brownlow-medal-predictor/

In my opinion, Bont ($2.50) is too short - no real value involved

Feel free to discuss anything relevant below


Also thinking if there is enough interest we could run a Brownlow Predictor Competition (I ran one 2 years ago I think?) where we all select our pick 3 top vote getters for all 18 clubs - for a total (overall) tally, and see who can get the highest tally
 
Zagbag

Zagbag

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The Brownlow is one of my most profitable exercises every year. 2016 was my last poor year where I drastically underrated a few guys and had to tweak my system. Beyond that I will usually clear 5 figures ($10k plus) net positive result for the year.

With that context, I would say this is going to be one of the most unpredictable counts I've seen. Even looking broadly across speculators (e.g. various Brownlow predictors, coaches votes, pundit game ranks etc) , there's a wild variance that I haven't seen for a while. Especially with Bontempelli and Oliver, but also for other contenders like Wines, Parish, Miller, Petracca. That's going to make it really hard to handicap the field this year.

Let's look at Bont for example.

Round 14
The AFL's Predictor awards him 0, and Betfair awards him 1.
In that game (Geelong 83 Dogs 78), Bont had 143 Supercoach points (game high), 30 touches (2nd game rank), 1.2 Goals, 17 CP (second game rank) and 641 metres gained (team high). He was awarded 6 Coaches votes behind Stewart's 9

I could comfortably see him getting 3 in a losing side, possibly 2 votes.

Round 1
The AFL's Predictor awards him 2, and Betfair awards him 1
In this game, (Collingwood 53 Dogs 69), Bont has 92 Supercoach points (15th rank for game, 12th most for Dogs), 28 touches (behind 4 teammates), 0.1 goals, 1/3 Frees for/against, 6 Clangers, 60% Disposal efficiency. He's awarded 0 votes from the Coaches,
Bailey Smith had 36 & 2 goals, Macrae 35, Dunkley 30 etc. Darcy Moore highly rates with a bunch of intercept marks.

I think Bont will be VERY lucky to poll here, let alone 2 votes.

These two games show a bit of the variance that I'm seeing in predictions. Oliver's games are also wildly viewed.

With that, it's unsurprisingly the most packed leaderboard I've seen, with my top 9 within 7 votes of each other. My sense tells me that Bont probably gets it done. Goalkicking, exciting midfielder in a gun side. Last game is probably a good example of where he hasn't had a great game. Caught with the ball multiple times, most Clangers in the history of the AFL, but may get 3 votes as his winning "sealer".
 
Ironhawk

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$10 for Walsh does seem reasonable value, I don't think he has much (any) competition at the Blues, only issue is they only have 7 wins and are in 13th. Most of the others in the mix have others on their team stealing votes from them. If he finishes the year off strongly like he did last year, he's a good chance.

My money is still on Bont to win reasonably comfortably, but I expect it will be closer than it looked like it would be a month ago.
 
NT.Thunder

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Ironhawk said:
$10 for Walsh does seem reasonable value, I don't think he has much (any) competition at the Blues, only issue is they only have 7 wins and are in 13th. Most of the others in the mix have others on their team stealing votes from them. If he finishes the year off strongly like he did last year, he's a good chance.

My money is still on Bont to win reasonably comfortably, but I expect it will be closer than it looked like it would be a month ago.
Click to expand...
Bon't has been good but with guys like Macrae, Libba, Dunkley early, English, Daniel, Smith etc it would still be a big effort but he has had a big year. Whether the umpires see it the same as SuperCoach we'll see.
 
AngryAnt

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Ironhawk said:
$10 for Walsh does seem reasonable value, I don't think he has much (any) competition at the Blues, only issue is they only have 7 wins and are in 13th. Most of the others in the mix have others on their team stealing votes from them. If he finishes the year off strongly like he did last year, he's a good chance.

My money is still on Bont to win reasonably comfortably, but I expect it will be closer than it looked like it would be a month ago.
Click to expand...
Walsh will still poll in some of the losses, against Geelong a couple rounds back he was clearly BOG even if the Blues lost, I think he will still poll three in that game, he got 10 in the coaches votes in that one.
 
Zagbag

Zagbag

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NT.Thunder said:
Bon't has been good but with guys like Macrae, Libba, Dunkley early, English, Daniel, Smith etc it would still be a big effort but he has had a big year. Whether the umpires see it the same as SuperCoach we'll see.
Click to expand...
For what it's worth, I think there's a lot of Bulldogs players who've played well all year, without really polling votes. E.g of guys you mention, I have English on just 1, Daniel on just 1.... others, Dale on 1.75, Hunter on 0. No one other than Bont or Macrae over 7 votes.
 
N

N29

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Steele is the one you can still get value for - $17 some books. Multi up at ladbrokes with Harry for the coleman for a little extra boost.

Umpires love this bloke, think Simon Black, Nat Fyfe. I have him right in contention in my count. Bont's price is poison IMO.

I've taken Wines ($34), Parish ($14), Steele ($26) and Walsh ($17) throughout the season. So any of those will do 😛
 
Zagbag

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#10
1626848547654.png

For anyone inerested, here's my list of bets at the moment...

Obviously some are more live than others. Loved JMac early in the year but he's tapered a lot. Laird has really faded too, but he's someone who could be polling 15 as easily as 8 right now, a lot of 35 touch games in losing sides that could be rewarded or dismissed.

Think Steele has left his run too late this year, but will be looking very hard at him for next year.
 
toxic

toxic

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Zagbag said:
View attachment 32628

For anyone inerested, here's my list of bets at the moment...

Obviously some are more live than others. Loved JMac early in the year but he's tapered a lot. Laird has really faded too, but he's someone who could be polling 15 as easily as 8 right now, a lot of 35 touch games in losing sides that could be rewarded or dismissed.

Think Steele has left his run too late this year, but will be looking very hard at him for next year.
Click to expand...
No Petracca? (Which I completely agree with)
 
Zagbag

Zagbag

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toxic said:
No Petracca? (Which I completely agree with)
Click to expand...
He traded way too short early season. Which was fair, off 3rd last year and fits the profile.

I have Oliver 4.5 votes ahead of him just at Melbourne. The market says I’ve probably got that margin too big, but we’ll see.
 
Bomber18

Bomber18

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@Zagbag thoughts on prospects of Parish…?

Could be a smoky depending on end of season finish and if Bont continues his quietish form.

I think Bont would have to be ahead at this point but think the last few rounds could shape the contest!
 
Zagbag

Zagbag

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#17
Bomber18 said:
@Zagbag thoughts on prospects of Parish…?

Could be a smoky depending on end of season finish and if Bont continues his quietish form.

I think Bont would have to be ahead at this point but think the last few rounds could shape the contest!
Click to expand...
I have him around 19-20 at the moment, but probably at least 5 back of Bont.

He strikes me as a guy who the umpires will probably fail to catch up with how well he's playing. He's not a proven vote getter, and there's often a lag effect when someone breaks out. Think Robbie Gray in 2014, when many expected him to contend/win, and he didn't finish top 10. I can see Parish having a few games where he's earnt 3 but might not get rewarded? Could easily poll four straight 3s in 9,10,11,12.
 
kennychao

kennychao

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Low key can’t wait for end of season Trifecta market to come out only to get smashed within a day of coming out
 
Zagbag

Zagbag

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Last round suddenly makes things very interesting... Oliver likely 3, with Bont 0 and stuck forward (only 52% CBA). With Dunkley and now Treloar likely back, Bont might not get things his own way for the final three rounds.

Difficult to assess how Wines would have been judged last round as well.
 
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