Discussion 2021 NFL RDT Dream Team Discussion
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Yeah, I agree that they tend to base rankings on statistics. It's not that they ignore outside factors - they don't, well, not all. But I do think that they tend to under-value the recent other factors.
Most appear to use DVOA which is an attempt to place a statistical value on those factors - Defense adjusted Value Over Average.
In sum:
"DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. While it can be used as a measure of total team performance ..... it can [also] be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, and so on."
Admittedly DVOA doesn't/can't account for illness/injury but it does try to account for which players are in/out of offense and defense.
e.g. how the does Steelers defense perform when T J Watt, their best linebacker, isn't playing - how many sacks do they get, how many passes does the opposing QB complete, do opponents pass more because they know Watt is missing etc etc
But relying on DVOA is relying on a long-term past performance. In general you'd think they'd be right, e.g. just as tossing a coin will invariably end up 50/50 heads/tails over time. But in 10 tossses, 20 tosses? So DVOA can lead, as I have said, to the under-valuing of more relevant current factors, e.g Hill still gets ranked a top WR even when he patently is not, he just isn't getting the targets.
I think it's also the nature of the game itself that's a problem.
When a team falls behind early a RB who isn't targeted a lot has little chance of scoring well because his team will throw the ball rather than run it, e.g. Cook last week against the Packers had 8 carries until the Vikings were down 20-0, afterwards he had 1 carry.
Conversely, when a team gets an early lead they tend to run the ball more so the RB gets a lot more carries.
DVOA does attempt to factor this into the stat.s, e.g. does a team start well or poorly, at home or away, against what type of defense. See from above: "current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality"
But it's still long-term trends that the statistics represent.
I probably have more faith in the experts than you do Bermi even while i think they can be blinkered at times.
Most appear to use DVOA which is an attempt to place a statistical value on those factors - Defense adjusted Value Over Average.
In sum:
"DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. While it can be used as a measure of total team performance ..... it can [also] be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, and so on."
Admittedly DVOA doesn't/can't account for illness/injury but it does try to account for which players are in/out of offense and defense.
e.g. how the does Steelers defense perform when T J Watt, their best linebacker, isn't playing - how many sacks do they get, how many passes does the opposing QB complete, do opponents pass more because they know Watt is missing etc etc
But relying on DVOA is relying on a long-term past performance. In general you'd think they'd be right, e.g. just as tossing a coin will invariably end up 50/50 heads/tails over time. But in 10 tossses, 20 tosses? So DVOA can lead, as I have said, to the under-valuing of more relevant current factors, e.g Hill still gets ranked a top WR even when he patently is not, he just isn't getting the targets.
I think it's also the nature of the game itself that's a problem.
When a team falls behind early a RB who isn't targeted a lot has little chance of scoring well because his team will throw the ball rather than run it, e.g. Cook last week against the Packers had 8 carries until the Vikings were down 20-0, afterwards he had 1 carry.
Conversely, when a team gets an early lead they tend to run the ball more so the RB gets a lot more carries.
DVOA does attempt to factor this into the stat.s, e.g. does a team start well or poorly, at home or away, against what type of defense. See from above: "current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality"
But it's still long-term trends that the statistics represent.
I probably have more faith in the experts than you do Bermi even while i think they can be blinkered at times.
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Exactly. Who else can help.
But everyone gets it wrong in the NFL, far more often than in the AFL.
Compare this week's Vegas betting line with the actual results so far:
the Chiefs were giving the Broncos 10.5 points - they won by 4
the Cowboys were giving the Eagles 3.5 points - they won by 25
If the desert can't get it right, no-one can.
Glad you mentioned this about Chase . I will swap him now.
. I will swap him now.
Bengals head coach Zac Taylor said there's a "chance" Ja'Marr Chase will play in Week 18 against the Browns.
Chase is a mere 12 yards away from breaking the team's single-season receiving yardage record (1,440), set by Chad Johnson in 2007. Chase's 266-yard Week 17 explosion against the Chiefs put him in position to break the record in a Week 18 game that could see the Bengals sit most of their starters. We might see the team force feed Chase until he gets the record, then yank him. He'll be a risky DFS option.
SOURCE: Ben Baby on Twitter
Jan 7, 2022, 12:08 PM ET
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News: 4 days ago Bengals head coach Zac Taylor said Chase "potentially" could play in Sunday's game against Cleveland, Charlie Goldsmith of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
Spin: With quarterback Joe Burrow already acknowledging that he'll sit out with a minor knee injury he would otherwise normally play through if the Bengals hadn't already locked up a playoff spot, there's a good chance Chase plays less than a full game, if he even suits up at all. He already has the rookie record for receiving yards (1,428), thanks to his 11-266-3 line in the Week 17 win over Kansas City.
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Score: 602
Rd Rank: 49
Overall Rank: 100 (from 141)
Victorious in the two super bowls I qualified for and perhaps the previous round I should not have eaten a TE donut in the several close matchups. Great performance by all squad members, especially by D Adams as captain and J Chase combining for 200 points. One trade left to avoid a donut and hopefully I can hold onto my ranking within the top 100.
Current trades:
TBA
View attachment 37701
Rd Rank: 49
Overall Rank: 100 (from 141)
Victorious in the two super bowls I qualified for and perhaps the previous round I should not have eaten a TE donut in the several close matchups
. Great performance by all squad members, especially by D Adams as captain and J Chase combining for 200 points. One trade left to avoid a donut and hopefully I can hold onto my ranking within the top 100.Current trades:
TBA
View attachment 37701
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@Under The Dome @tso @Shannon @Ironhawk (and others if I've missed some) - we still have 4/12 spots left (8 filled) in the Sleeper draft league (with up to 14-15 total if enough players) if you guys are interested for next season