I've been trying to solve the keeper issue with some old fashioned fixture analysis, and here is what I've come up with.
Firstly, couple of things:
1. A bit of this is inspired after reading
@Diabolical's recap of last season, so credit there for any of the themes/concepts that pop up that sound familiar.
2. Full fixture is included but I'll mostly ignore the back end of the season as too much can change between now and then.
3. My goal is to spend as few trades as possible on keepers, as I feel there will be more benefit/need in having trades to manage the other 10 on field spots. Keepers are 1/11 spots on field so don't want to disproportionately allocate trades to that spot.
4. I've excluded Carey as not available early.
View attachment 49890
From what I can see, there are 3 clear zones across the season:
1. Rounds 1 to 3 - Condensed period of DGR/Byes, but that is o***et by this zone having the benefit of starting teams being tailored to best manage it. The goal at the end of this round is to be positioned to have the best keeper choice for the start of the next zone in round 4. using last years averages, this is how players would score over those rounds:
View attachment 49887
Based on that, it feels like the optimal keeper situation is to start Gilkes, and then in round 3 shift him to Billings. This provides 6 games of scoring from just 1 trade (or no trades if you start Billings), and Gilkes would have had the 2nd highest scoring at the end of round 2, and Billings has the highest scoring in round 3. Note: I've only done this least season average for this zone, as it was most useless for navigating the cluster of DGR/byes and showing the benefit of Gilkes x4 vs some other players x1 or x2. Also past performance is no indicator of future performance but it's useful in an indicative sense.
Round 1: Gilkes
Round 2: Gilkes
Round 3: Billings
Trades: 1
Score Involvements: 6 (max)
2. Rounds 4 to 8 - Key defining feature is 3 out of 5 SGRs, meaning the priority is to have the best players on field. Given there is 2x DGRs and no byes for SS, this is a really simple one - Billings to Philippe.
Round 4: Philippe
Round 5: Philippe:
Round 6: Philippe:
Round 7: Philippe
Round 8: Philippe
Trades: 1
Score Involvements: 7 (max)
3. Rounds 9 to 13 - Don't have a plan for here yet.. but there are a few options depending on player form/availability.
So in summary:
Round 1: Gilkes
Round 2: Gilkes
Round 3: Billings
Round 4: Philippe
Round 5: Philippe:
Round 6: Philippe:
Round 7: Philippe
Round 8: Philippe
Trades: 2
Score Involvements: 13 (max)
Means I can focus trades on bowl/bat lines as well as chasing B/E value, without neglecting the keeper position. Hopefully this helps people sort through some of the noise around this position - most will have different views but I found the season fixture view helpful in mapping out how to approach keeper strategy while minimising trades.
