2018: Spring Racing & Punting

Rowsus

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RE: Amphitrite
Rowsus, is it a concern that her regular jockey, C. Williams, who rode her to victory in the last 4 starts, has decided to ride Oohood in this race?
(by the way, Oohood is my random number bet :) Looks like a good quinella.)
To be honest, I'm not sure that was Williams decision to make.
I haven't read anything in the media, so maybe somewhere he has said he chose Oohood over Amphitrite.
I think what happened is, Amphitrite wasn't going to run in this race, so Williams booked the Oohood ride. Then Weir changed his mind, and decided to run here with Amphitrite, but it was too late for Williams to jump off Oohood. If I'm right, I'm sure Williams would have chosen Amphitrite over Oohood.
Yendall is a great, and probably under used light weight jockey. I'm not put off by the jockey change.
 

toxic

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R4, no2 e/w A Prince of Aaran
R6, no 3 e/w Shillaleigh
R7, no 14 e/w Savvy Oak
R8, no 10, place Seige of Quebec

And if there's anything left
R9, no6 Resin
 

Rowsus

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Isn't it typical?
I liked Shillelagh 10 days ago to win this race, and Amphitrite was going to run elsewhere.
Then Amphitrite changes course, and comes into this race, and I got "confused", and went onto it, instead.

On a final note - anyone who doesn't think J Mc isn't the best Jockey in Aus, just hasn't been watching!
 

THCLT

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I liked Shillelagh 10 days ago to win this race, and Amphitrite was going to run elsewhere.
Then Amphitrite changes course, and comes into this race, and I got "confused", and went onto it, instead.
If Yendall kept Amphitrite close to the rail, rather than trying to get out and getting badly checked, it would've had every chance to win.
Shillelagh was on it's back heading into the straight, and waited patiently for the run to open up which it eventually did.

Lots of 'hard luck' stories from the race.
 

toxic

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Flemington

R4, no2 e/w A Prince of Aaran
R6, no 3 e/w Shillaleigh
R7, no 14 e/w Savvy Oak
R8, no 10, place Seige of Quebec

And if there's anything left
R9, no6 Resin
Great start.
Zahra just butchered Savvy Oak, should be gelded himself
 

Bermi

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All these horses can win the Melbourne Cup IF......

[6] 1. BEST SOLUTION - If he can carry the weight.
[9] 2. THE CLIFFSOFMOHER - If he doesn't lay in under pressure, like in the Caul/Cup.
[17] 3. MAGIC CIRCLE - If he can over come the harsh handicap given to him, compared to some of the other better performed horses.
[4] 4. CHESTNUT COAT - If he can run a solid 3200m.
[13] 5. MUNTAHAA - If he can run a solid 3200m.
[16] 6. SOUND CHECK - If he doesn't overrace like in the Caul/Cup.
[18] 7. WHO SHOT THE BARMAN - If the field falls over :).
[22] 8. ACE HIGH - If he puts his best foot forward, he's hot and cold.
[10] 9. MARMELO - If his amended preparation this year proves better then last year.
[11] 10. AVILIUS - If he can run a solid 3200m.
[23] 11. YUCATAN - If he can run a solid 3200m, not bred to do that.
[1]1 2. AUVRAY - If he can improve greatly on his current form.
[15] 13. FINCHE - If he can run a solid 3200m.
[5] 14. RED CARDINAL - If he has a form reversal.
[2] 15. VENGEUR MASQUE - If he can improve on his current form.
[7] 16. VENTURA STORM - If he can greatly improve on his last Melb/Cup run.
[20] 17. PRINCE OF ARRAN - If he has a fast run race.
[3] 18. NAKEETA - If he has a big form reversal.
[14] 19. SIR CHARLES ROAD - If he can upgrade his class.
[24] 20. ZACADA - if he can upgrade his class.
[12] 21. RUNAWAY - If he doesn't try and lead all the way.
[8] 22. YOUNGSTER - If she doesn't overrace.
[19] 23. CROSS COUNTER - If seven career starts is enough to be ready for a gruelling 3200m race.
[21] 24. ROSTROPOVICH - If he can run a solid 3200m.
 
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THCLT

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Barrier added in [ ] prefix to the above post

Good
Best Solution
The Cliffsofmoher
Avilius
Marmelo (ran as the favourite last year)

Bad
Yucatan
Cross Counter
Rostropovich

Melbourne Cup Barrier Trivia
Since the introduction of barrier gates in 1924, the only gate without a win in the Melbourne Cup is gate 18, Who Shot Thebarman has drawn 18 this year. Leading trainers and jockeys in recent years have expressed a liking for gates 5-12. In recent times horses drawn barriers 14, 10, 13 and 22 have proven to be the most successful.

Most Victories by Barrier #
8 Victories - From barrier 5
7 - From barrier 10
6 - From barriers 11,14,17
 
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Bermi

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Barrier added in [ ] prefix to the above post

Good
Best Solution
The Cliffsofmoher
Avilius
Marmelo (ran as the favourite last year)

Bad
Yucatan
Cross Counter
Rostropovich

Melbourne Cup Barrier Trivia
Since the introduction of barrier gates in 1924, the only gate without a win in the Melbourne Cup is gate 18, Who Shot Thebarman has drawn 18 this year. Leading trainers and jockeys in recent years have expressed a liking for gates 5-12. In recent times horses drawn barriers 14, 10, 13 and 22 have headed to the winners enclosure the most frequently.

Most Victories by Barrier #
8 Victories - From barrier 5
7 - From barrier 10
6 - From barriers 11,14,17
Thanks for adding the barriers. I didn't include barriers in my 'Melb Cup horses can win IF' summary, because even though the inside barriers are an advantage, a lot depends on luck and the Trainer's/Jockey's strategy before the first turn. The horse doesn't usually have much say, unless it decides to pull hard :).

RE: your 'Good' and 'Bad', hmmm, I can't agree with all of them :)

My neighbour has been backing the barrier 18 horse for decades now, waiting for it to win, hmmm, I wonder if he will back it this year, Who Shot Thebarman???
 

THCLT

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RE: your 'Good' and 'Bad', hmmm, I can't agree with all of them :)
You're not the only one...

Have decided to take one for the very first time as well, probably a week late as the odds have shortened somewhat.
Yucatan, The Cliffsofmoher & Best Solution
into
Latrobe, Rostropovich, Yucatan & Best Solution
Doing my usual early plunge for the MC.

I've narrowed it down to a few chances and will have a stab at the following.

Heavy investment: Magic Circle, Muntahaa & Cross Counter
Small investment: Best Solution, Yucatan, Rostropovich

Those 6 will form the basis for my exotic bets with a few 'roughies' added.

Also have a live CC/MC double going into Best Solution and Yucatan.
 

THCLT

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Thanks for adding the barriers. I didn't include barriers in my 'Melb Cup horses can win IF' summary
Some will base their selections on their birthdays, horse's name, their favourite jockey, colours and barrier number to name a few. It's during a day such as the MC that these betting quirks seems to be most prevalent...and I'm not immune to that theory.

We have a tradition in our household where everyone (5 people in total) select a horse of their choice. I'll then proceed to buy an E/W ticket for all of them. Those numbers will be used to buy a boxed Trifecta and F4, another Trifecta and F4 will be based on our birth days and months.

Another thing which I've started doing for a few years now is to take a Quaddie ticket with all the odd numbers from 9 onwards. It's the one day in the year where I'll have more betting slips in my wallet than actual 'paper' money!
 

IDIG

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Who carries money these days anyway? :p

I think i'm gonna have some coin on Who Shot Thebarman now. I mean, surely it has to win some time. It's a statistical certainty!
 

IDIG

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Outside of my usual syndicate with my mates, me, my wife and Jay usually pick one number each plus the fave and put tri's on. I might put birthdays on too this year. 2 - 3 - 10 - 20 covers me, my mum, my wife, Jay and our kids!
 

Rowsus

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Melbourne Cup Day is traditionally a really poor days racing.
Big fields, with horses generally 2 or 3 grades below the horses that race on the other days of the carnival.
with that in mind, I generally try and shop for value:
R2 - Samovare $16
R3 - Sun Craze $15, Mandela Effect $9
R4 - Sherlock Holmes $34
R5 - Heaven's Deal $10
R6 - Khulaasa $12, Jens Rule $12
R7 - A Prince Of Arran $23
R8 - Tradesman $21, Mahamadeis $15
R9 - Comicas $20
R10 - Our Crown Mistress $11

To be continued
 

Bermi

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Some will base their selections on their birthdays, horse's name, their favourite jockey, colours and barrier number to name a few. It's during a day such as the MC that these betting quirks seems to be most prevalent...and I'm not immune to that theory...…....
That is why you get good value for your winning bets. The problem is picking the right horses!
 

Bermi

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I think it may finally be Godolphin's year (Avilius, Cross Counter & Best Solution). I wouldn't be surprised if he Trifecta's the cup.
The 2 horses that could spoil his party are the Japanese and German horses (Chestnut Coat & Sound Check).
I'll throw in my Random Number horse (Magic Circle) and base my bets around those 6.
I like Avilius best and Chestnut Coat the best outsider.

Gee, wouldn't it be good if James CUMMINGS trains the winning M/C horse (Avilius).
 

Rowsus

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Gee, wouldn't it be good if James CUMMINGS trains the winning M/C horse (Avilius).
One of my favourite Bart Cummings memories.
James had just trained the Derby winner, and was getting interviewed with Bart standing next to him.
During the interview, James said:
"I really have to thank dad. He taught me everything I know".
The interviewer turned to Bart and said "Is that right?"
To which Bart replied:
"Yes, that's right. I just haven't taught him everything I know!".
 

Grant

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I'm most keen on R5#1 Nomothaj.

It's hard to be certain about Champagne Boom's competitors but it looks a $2 chance to me in race 1. Setsuna won the race last year after a win at its previous start and Champagne Boom looks a far more promising horse.

I'll be looking for value in the others. No idea how Manuel beat Fifty Stars last start yet is still 5 times the price.
 

IDIG

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Early sportsbet promo bets.
R1: 1 Champagne Boom @ 2.60
R2: 12 One More Try @ 7.00
R7: 3 Magic Circle @ 8.00
 
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