2018: Spring Racing & Punting

Grant

Dual Best & Fairest
Joined
16 Mar 2012
Messages
3,181
Likes
131
AFL Club
Carlton
#81
Interesting thread.

Does anyone have theories for betting on Flemington? I probably lose 85% of the time there. The main reason is I prefer betting on horses that settle top 4 to reduce luck. Yesterday the last 8 races were won by horses that weren't top 5 at the 800m mark.

With the short MV straight I can normally return a profit as speed maps become vital as you can rule out any horse that won't be top 6 in the run unless they have an excellent turn of foot or are a superior class.

In Adelaide I have an excellent record. I think this is due to a few factors, being Morphetville is used repeatedly (so the track is more of a constant than variable), smaller fields and usually the same horses are running other than Victorian visitors. I also have better restraint there. I normally get 1 or 2 winners from 4 or 5 bets, whereas I bet on most Vic races. The last three weeks from 9 bets I won on Flop at $21 and Modulate at $12 (although generally I like $4-$5 priced horses) that covered my losses in Victoria/NSW.
 

Grant

Dual Best & Fairest
Joined
16 Mar 2012
Messages
3,181
Likes
131
AFL Club
Carlton
#82
Does anyone here bet on Winx? Also what would its fair odds usually be? I think it has always been overs due to its racing pattern making punters overly nervous. Black Caviar would lead all the way so was much easier to watch for punters.

I had $100@$1.14 on Winx (FYI 90% of my bets are usually only $5-$10) yesterday but I reckon I would have had a heart attack watching with the 1/10 ride Bowman gave it if I was older. Bowman was extremely lucky that gap opened up in the straight after he made the terrible error early to take the rail and let Tally sit outside Winx. If that was Craig Williams riding Winx then the media and punters would have criticised him heavily.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
16,452
Likes
1,232
AFL Club
Melbourne
#83
Glad you joined the conversation, Grant.
My theory on Flemington is, apart from any obvious track bias that has presented during the day, the wind is the biggest thing to look at. Generally, when the rail is out like it was yesterday (9m entire course), those getting wider in the straight are advantaged, and the rail is a disadvantage. This was born out by several winners settling 3 wide with cover, and coming from 8th etc.
Because of the long straight, and the building lay out at Flemington, the wind has a bigger affect at Flemington than most courses. The buildings create a bigger "wind tunnel" than people realise. A wind from SSW to W makes it very hard for horses getting wide, or on the outside in straight races, to do well. Conversely a wind from SE to NNE really gives an advantage to horses wider on the track.
In General, in the straight racing, leaders have a terrible record. You want a horse that can race with some cover, and power home the last 3-400m. I read a statistic last year, though I can't remember the exact numbers, but it was something like only 20% of winners in straight races in the last 2 years, was the winner in the first 3 at the 400m! If you think about all our other courses, that number would likely grow to 60+%.

In general, Winx is over her theoretical odds just about every start. I think its partly people wanting to avoid the reward over risk factor. The Bookie I worked for's father was also a bookie. He told me a story about a lady that backed Bernburough every start during his amazing 15 win winning streak. Back in those days it was cash only, and she would turn up with a big satchel of cash, and back him. She was basically "all upping" him each start, so by the end, she was putting a frightening amount of money (for back then) on him. Well, she had the bookies running scared, but eventually Bernburough lost, and she left the course with an empty satchel.

That's the thing with laying the long odds on. The value is just not there. You put $10 on a $3 chance, and win $20 when it wins. That gives you another 2 betting units, to cover you for your next 2 bets. You put $100 on at $1.14, and you have to be right 7 out of 8 times just to break even, and 21 times in a row, to get those 2 betting units.

I learnt that lesson a long time ago, on a trotter called Maori's Idol. It would be paying $1 money back on the win most times it raced, but it went through a funny little patch, where it was paying $1 win, $1.20 place, when it raced. This was back in the days when there was very little dividend information to look at when you bet. You filled out a hand written coupon, and got the old cardboard betting ticket from the tote. People couldn't actually see that it was paying more the place, than the win, until after the race was won. Well, after he paid that way 3 races in a row, I gathered all the money I could find, and put $50 the place on him, at his next start. That was a huge amount of money to me back then. I was a $2 punter, earning $6/week doing a paper round. Well, you wouldn't want to know it. Maori's Idol broke 3 times in the run, and flew home from 100m off them, and finished 5th. I was devastated. I couldn't believe how stupid, and greedy I had been, to try and win $10. For all I know, he might have only paid $1 back the place that night, so I bet $50 to win nothing!
Funnily enough, it happened to me again around 8 years later, when I bet $1,000 on a horse a called Segovian Rhythm at a midweek meeting at MV. He was 4/6 (around $1.65 these days), and was racing many grades below his previous win. It was 20-40 times my usual bet size, and clearly the biggest bet I ever made. Yep, he lost. I later realised, he was never going to win. It was common back then for good punting stables to give their good horses a quiet run, to get their odds out for the next start. Sure enough, at his next start, in a higher grade, he started 7/2 ($4.50) and won easily, without me on him, and made me relive the whole fiasco again!
 

IDIG

Moderator
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
28,338
Likes
1,905
AFL Club
Essendon
#84
I think with Winx the only bets i’d have on are exotics. The thought of whacking a $1k on him to get some beer money does not appeal at all, especially after watching that race yesterday. It would’ve taken a year off my life I reckon!
 

IDIG

Moderator
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
28,338
Likes
1,905
AFL Club
Essendon
#85
Row, do you know of websites that have spreadsheet friendly race results? From memory, the majority of the winners were in that $3-$7 range yesterday so I just want to see if I can put some data together. While I do like a roughie, I like a collect more and if that’s the range they usually win at I’ll base my picks off that! Seems quite obvious as I type that, that those at shorter odds will win more often than $10+ 🤦‍♂️
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
16,452
Likes
1,232
AFL Club
Melbourne
#86
Amazingly enough, in a sport that creates so many useful stats, I'm not sure of any sites that will offer what you want!
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
16,452
Likes
1,232
AFL Club
Melbourne
#87
Historically, I think the odds strike to their expected rate, setting markets to around 120-125%.

ie horses starting at $2 historically win around 40-42% of the time, horses starting at $10 win around 8-8.3% of the time etc.

basically divide the odds into 80 or 83.333, and you'll find their strike rate.
 

IDIG

Moderator
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
28,338
Likes
1,905
AFL Club
Essendon
#88
Historically, I think the odds strike to their expected rate, setting markets to around 120-125%.

ie horses starting at $2 historically win around 40-42% of the time, horses starting at $10 win around 8-8.3% of the time etc.

basically divide the odds into 80 or 83.333, and you'll find their strike rate.
Thanks mate, good to know. So we shouldn’t see another 100-1 win the Melbourne Cup for a long long long time!
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
16,452
Likes
1,232
AFL Club
Melbourne
#89
From memory, there has been 2 in it's history, and I'd guess somewhere around 500 or more start at those odds, in 156 years.
So, no, I wouldn't be expecting another one soon.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
16,452
Likes
1,232
AFL Club
Melbourne
#90
This is the week I traditionally put on my Caulfield/Melbourne Cup Doubles.
There has only been 3 times that I have managed to have horses alive come Melbourne Cup day.
Last year I had 4 horses alive going into the Cup, the other 2 times, just the one horse.
Unfortunately, the best I could manage last year was 4th, with Big Duke.
I was pretty thrilled to find the $51 winner of the Caulfield Cup last year, with Boom Time!

No $51 chances in the Caulfield Cup this year.

My doubles this year are:
Homesman & Tosen Basil
into
Cross Counter, Red Cardinal, Homesman & Tosen Basil.
 

THCLT

Moderator
Joined
13 Sep 2014
Messages
8,865
Likes
1,195
AFL Club
North Melb.
#91
Been in Sydney last few days and it's been raining most of the time...and with very little wind about, the weather looks to be staying around for the weekend.

It will be a very wet track at Randwick for the running of the Everest so keep that in mind.
 

OzRulesFootball

Director of Coaching
Joined
23 Mar 2012
Messages
19,383
Likes
184
AFL Club
Carlton
#92
I do not bet on it but love watching Winx on weekend. Looked gone with about 100 metres to go and then just bang, over in no time. Crazy good
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
16,452
Likes
1,232
AFL Club
Melbourne
#93
A look at a few Roughies for the weekend.

Caulfield R4 - 4 Fuhryk. $71 into $51 already, still worth jumping on anything above $26, probably a realistic $12-$16 chance.
2 for 2 3rd up, and is 3rd up. Racing at her best distance 5 from 12 at 1200. Has won at this level (Gp3) twice, and ran 2nd in a Gp1 behind Viddora in the last 12 months. Viddora would be a short priced fav. in this. Has won at Caulfield twice. Best weighted horse in the race, on the SWP scale. Would meet all of these at least 1.5kg worse in a H'cap.

Caulfield R7 - 13 Kingsguard. $41
I guess you need not say much more, than he beat home Youngstar last start, then it ran 2nd Winx at Flemington. If Kingsguard won at $41, and you said to yourself "WTF?", then looked up it's form, you'd be likely to say "ohhhhh, right. Geez, I could have backed that." In that same race, Noire won, beating Kingsguard by 0.3L. Noire was $3.40 and Kingsguard was $8, now they are $12 and $41, with Kingsguard meeting Noire 0.5kg better for the experience. In addition, Kingsguard has drawn well, and will race in the first 4, while Noire will get back from barrier 2, and might need luck.

Caulfield R9 - 14 Saccharo. $35
A race with a bit of a history for upsets. Last start was backed from $26 into $14, before running 2nd to Amphitrite beaten 0.4L, and giving her 2kg. Amphitrite has been flying, and has won easily since (and could win Race 6 at Caulfield). Seems to be "on the up", and has a good formline.

Randwick R4 - 11 Willi Willi. $27, but I'm hoping/expecting to get longer on the day.
1 from 2 3rd up, and 4 from 7 3rd up and beyond. 4-2-1-0 in the wet. Won 3 from 4 when 3rd up and beyond, and carrying 55.5kg or less. Was 3 and 4 wide, without cover, the whole way last time, so probably did well to still finish 8.5L from them anyway. He was 2nd up there, and usually needs at least 2 runs to find his form.


Randwick R5 - 10 Fuel. $51 + 11 O' So Hazy $51
Fuel is 3 from 5 on wet tracks, and has never been beaten more than 2.5L on a wet track. It will be a Slow track here. Will be racing in the first 2 (probably), and that could be an advantage here. Beaten 2.6L behind the fav. Victorem back in Feb. at level weights. Definitely over the odds.
O' So Hazy has a 15-5-3-3 record, and is 2-2-0-0 in the wet. Prefers bigger fields, with 4 of her 5 wins coming in fields of 11 or more. Ran 2.7L behind Victorem when 3rd earlier the year. Gets Brooke Sweeney back to ride, and that's the jockey with the best record on her, with a 8-4-1-1 record when riding her. She will also race near the lead. If I have a choice, I prefer to back Roughies racing near the lead, as they make their own luck, and hopefully the shorter priced horses back in the field suffer bad luck.
Backing them both on a 1u win / 3 u place scenario returns 42 units if one places. Effective odds of $5.25 on your outlay of 8 units, and you always have the flukers chance one of them wins, and then your return jumps to $11.60.


Randwick R8 - 7 Allergic. $41
There's a little bit of "Yeah, but...." here. Allergic hasn't run a place, since 27/5/2017. Yeah, but he has only had 2 preparations and 6 starts in that time, this being the 2nd prep. Allergic hasn't finished closer than 3.6L from the winner in that time, and has been beaten an average of 6.8L. Yeah, but let's look at his record broken up into 4th and up beyond, and 1st, 2nd & 3rd up, he is 4th up this week. Career 38-8-5-7, 1st-3rd up 21-2-1-2, 4th+ up 17-6-4-5!!!! Look at that, he has only missed a place twice, when he has made a 4th run or more in a prep! He's 15-5-0-4 on wet tracks. Yeah, but when 4th up and beyond, and racing on wet tracks, he is 7-3-0-4!

Randwick R9 - 6 Master Of Arts. $27
He's 4th up, getting out to a distance (2600m), and getting onto a wet track. Let's look at that scenario. Career 32-8-3-4, 4th up and beyond 17-7-2-2, 2200-2600m 11-5-2-0, wet tracks 9-4-2-1. Let's put that all together. When 4th up and beyond, racing between 2200-2600m, and on a wet track, he is 6-4-1-0!!! If that's not worth an each-way bet, I don't know what is!

Randwick R10 - 3 Noble Joey. $18, but we might get better!
There are many axioms in horse racing, and one of the better ones is "1000m horses, in 1000m races". Noble joey fits the bill here. He is 5-3-2-0 at 1000m, and 3-1-2-0 at 1000m at this track. He is also good in the wet being 12-4-4-0. Has a history of drifting in the betting, sometimes dramatically. At his last win (in July this year), he drifted from $13 to $26.
 
Last edited:

THCLT

Moderator
Joined
13 Sep 2014
Messages
8,865
Likes
1,195
AFL Club
North Melb.
#94
Off to the races again this weekend...;)

FLEMINGTON
1-13 Utzon (2U Win) $5.50 [Unplaced]
3-10 Golden Halo (1U/3U EW) $10.00 [Unplaced]
5-2 Voodoo Lad (3U Win) $3.70 [Unplaced]
6-1 EL Dorado Dreaming (3U Win) $7.00 [Unplaced]
7-1 Hartnell (1U/3U EW) $7.50 [2nd - Returned 9U]
8-1,3,7 Quin (3U boxed @ 500%) [Returned 74.9U]

R4-4 into R7-13 (1U both to place, fixed @ 99-1) *Thanks Rows for the tips [No good]
R8-7 into R10-2 (2U both to place, fixed @ 21-1) [Returned 42U]

Quaddie (4U @ 20%) [5-1-1-7]
1-2-4-11
1-3-6-7-10
1
1-2-4-7-9

Randwick
3-1 Cristobal (3U Win) $3.50 [Unplaced]
4-6 Sons of John (1U/3U EW) $13.00 [Unplaced]
6-14 Spright (1U/3U EW) $15.00 [Scratched] replaced with 1 Clearly Innocent $10.00 [3rd - Returned 8.4U]
7-2,6,10,11 Quin (3U boxed @ 250%) [No good]
8-Tri 12/2,3,6,7/2,3,6,7 (4U @ 333%) [No good]

R9-6 into R10-3 (2U both to place, fixed @ 25-1) *Thanks Rows for the tips [No good]

Quaddie (4U @ 25%) [1-4-12-6]
2-6-10-11
12
2-4-6-7
2-3-4-6-8

Total Bets = 50U
 
Last edited:

IDIG

Moderator
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
28,338
Likes
1,905
AFL Club
Essendon
#95
Having a quick go at the Cranbourne promo tonight.

Race 7: No 8 - Our Libretto @ 3.25- 1st
Race 8: No 11 - Sky Song @ 4.20 - 3rd
Race 9: No 11 - Lady Cromac @ 5.50 - 1st

I also put $2 on number 10 in race 9 paying $91. Second up tonight where it’s won 3 out of 4 times!
 
Last edited:

THCLT

Moderator
Joined
13 Sep 2014
Messages
8,865
Likes
1,195
AFL Club
North Melb.
#96
Having a quick go at the Cranbourne promo tonight.

Race 7: No 8 - Our Libretto @ 3.25
Race 8: No 11 - Sky Song @ 4.20
Race 9: No 11 - Lady Cromac @ 5.50

I also put $2 on number 10 in race 9 paying $91. Second up tonight where it’s won 3 out of 4 times!
2 out of 3 ain't bad...(y)
 

THCLT

Moderator
Joined
13 Sep 2014
Messages
8,865
Likes
1,195
AFL Club
North Melb.
#98
Happy with that considering i wasn't even planning to have a bet tonight :)
That sounds eerily similar to me last Saturday...

Now watch me burn through those holes in my pockets now that I have had time to read the form for this weekend!
 

Grant

Dual Best & Fairest
Joined
16 Mar 2012
Messages
3,181
Likes
131
AFL Club
Carlton
#99
I'm going to Caulfield tomorrow. Will be happy with any kind of profit.

2 of my 3 favourite horses are running so will be backing Shoals and Savanna Amour as usual (Pedrena my other favourite if you were wondering).

Ruomaza (Ade R3#3) is my best bet.

Best value is in the last at Adelaide that looks a lottery to me. I give #9 Snowbrook a $12 winning chance and it's $34 currently. $8 the place probably a wiser bet as I reckon it maps well and will be very competitive but obviously unlikely to win.
 

Grant

Dual Best & Fairest
Joined
16 Mar 2012
Messages
3,181
Likes
131
AFL Club
Carlton
Probably a bit late now but if you're still looking for a decent form guide for tomorrow then go to bestbets.com, click on the free form menu option and type in the code word MIGHTYBOSS.
 
Top