Discussion 2018: Spring Racing & Punting
- Thread starter Rowsus
- Start date
The one thing Benbatl has, that the other "best International to come and contest the Cox Plate"'s didn't have, is that he has already won here, and also, that race is a good form reference so far, with the horses coming out of it running well.
I think it will cause Bowman to ride Winx just that little bit closer, as it's looking like a leaders track, and Benbatl should lead.
We just can't be sure how good Benbatl is, but if he's allowed to just bowl/amble the first part, Bowman is going to have to go early on the Champ, that's for sure. I can't tip against her, but I am a little concerned for her. She deserves this.
I think it will cause Bowman to ride Winx just that little bit closer, as it's looking like a leaders track, and Benbatl should lead.
We just can't be sure how good Benbatl is, but if he's allowed to just bowl/amble the first part, Bowman is going to have to go early on the Champ, that's for sure. I can't tip against her, but I am a little concerned for her. She deserves this.
Sure did! We only got 3.40 or so for Espaaniyah and had 30 on that with a 10 quinella that missed. The tri I split 25 on the 8 roving and then 15 on the 8 and 9 roving that missed.
Some nice wins anyway, cheers for that! So now, apart from all the SC help I'm indebted to you for racing help as well!
Some nice wins anyway, cheers for that! So now, apart from all the SC help I'm indebted to you for racing help as well!
For those that like a little roughie action, I have one for you at Northam today.
I'm looking at Race 7 at Northam.
It's a Listed Race over 1600m. A LR in the country is nearly like a Gp1 race in the city. You generally want horses that have won, or performed well at that level (or higher) before. So let's look at how the field has performed at Gp3 or better, and at LR level.
As we can see, only 4 of the field has placed at Gp level, and only one of them has won at Gp level.
6 of the 9 have placed at LR level, but only 2 of them have won at that level.
Properantes and Royal Star are the 2 that have won at that level, and in Properantes case, higher. Achernar Star and Pushin' Shapes have placed at the higher Gp level. Those 4 horses represent 3 of the 5 favs, and my Roughie.
1. Achernar Star - has placed in much MUCH better races than this. He has never won beyond 1400m, but placed in very strong races in his 2 starts in races longer than 1400m. He won 1st up 15 days ago, and while he has won 1st up or 2nd up in 4 of his 5 preparations, he has never won both 1st up and 2nd up. In fact, he has never won consecutive races, that are less than 119 days apart.
2. Properantes - has won 9 races, and 6 of his last 7 wins have been at 1500m or 1600m, and the other at 2200m. His last 7 starts have been at 1400m or shorter, and he has only placed twice in those 7 starts. Obviously not his ideal scenario. If we go back to the 2 starts before those 7 starts, they were at 1500m and 1600m, and he won them both. So he won his last 2 starts when getting out to this distance range (it's 1600m today). Putting it simply - his record at 1000-1400m is 19 starts, 2 wins, 5 placings. His record at 1500-1600m is 12 starts, 6 wins, 4 placings. His record in races longer than 1600m is 8 starts, 1 win, 1 placing. Why have them kept to 1400m and shorter his past 7 runs? The answer might lie in this. His last 2 wins he was priced at $13 and $21.
3. Pushin' Shapes - ran 4th in the race that Achernar Star won last start. That was off a 35 day break, and he has never placed (from 3 attempts), when racing off a longer than 21 day break in the same prep. Coming off a 15 day break here, and is 11 starts, 3 wins and 5 placings, when racing off a 15-21 day break.
5. Royal Star - has Pike on board, and you can NEVER leave Pikey out of the chances in Perth. He rode 4 winners yesterday. Ran 6th in the Achernar Star race, and that was 1st up, off a long spell. Has won 2nd up before, being 2-1-0-0. Has placed in much stronger races, but only one of her wins was longer than 1400m. It was at 2200m in a 3yo Fillies race, and funny things can happen in those types of races. Ran 2nd to Properantes 11 months ago, and meets him 1.5kg better, for being beaten 0.8L
9. Missile Launch - has a 11-6-1-1 career record, and has won 3 from 3 at the distance. Was 5th in the Achernar Star race. Is 2nd up here, and is 3-2-0-1 2nd up. Has never won (or placed!) in anything stronger than a BM72+ race.
So, it's not hard to read between the lines, that Properantes is my Roughie.
Given the info above, I really don't understand the odds!
$3.00 Achernar Star
$3.30 Missile Launch
$5.50 Royal Star
$6.00 Pushin' Shapes
$6.50 Prize Catch
$61.00 Properantes
Properantes is currently $17.20 the win on the tote, and $16 the PLACE fixed odds at Sportsbet! With his record at 1500-1600m, that should be worth a small each-way bet.
Race 7 at Sale today is the Sale Cup. Another 1600m Country LR!
I will be doing my silly first 4's with Realise Potential $41 and The Mighty Jrod $71 as bankers to run 4th.
The best formline in the race, by a mile, is Fastnet Tempest.
Last start ran 2nd to Iconoclasm, with Sirrconi 3rd - they have since both won!
3 starts ago ran 4th to Night's watch, giving him 4kg, and was only 2.55L behind him.
Will settle just beyond Midfield, and power home. There is plenty of pace in the race, with Al Passem, Master Reset and Realise Potential all keen to go forward.
C Williams rides today, and he's had 2 rides on him, for a win and a placing.
I'm keen to back him, and take the quinella with Kingsguard.
Sale race 9 - Tykiato.
she hasn't won for 2 years, but has placed in much MUCH tougher races than this during that period.
At $23/$5.50 she is worth backing on a 1 for the win, 3 for the place basis.
Good luck, if you back any of these.
I'm looking at Race 7 at Northam.
It's a Listed Race over 1600m. A LR in the country is nearly like a Gp1 race in the city. You generally want horses that have won, or performed well at that level (or higher) before. So let's look at how the field has performed at Gp3 or better, and at LR level.
As we can see, only 4 of the field has placed at Gp level, and only one of them has won at Gp level.
6 of the 9 have placed at LR level, but only 2 of them have won at that level.
Properantes and Royal Star are the 2 that have won at that level, and in Properantes case, higher. Achernar Star and Pushin' Shapes have placed at the higher Gp level. Those 4 horses represent 3 of the 5 favs, and my Roughie.
1. Achernar Star - has placed in much MUCH better races than this. He has never won beyond 1400m, but placed in very strong races in his 2 starts in races longer than 1400m. He won 1st up 15 days ago, and while he has won 1st up or 2nd up in 4 of his 5 preparations, he has never won both 1st up and 2nd up. In fact, he has never won consecutive races, that are less than 119 days apart.
2. Properantes - has won 9 races, and 6 of his last 7 wins have been at 1500m or 1600m, and the other at 2200m. His last 7 starts have been at 1400m or shorter, and he has only placed twice in those 7 starts. Obviously not his ideal scenario. If we go back to the 2 starts before those 7 starts, they were at 1500m and 1600m, and he won them both. So he won his last 2 starts when getting out to this distance range (it's 1600m today). Putting it simply - his record at 1000-1400m is 19 starts, 2 wins, 5 placings. His record at 1500-1600m is 12 starts, 6 wins, 4 placings. His record in races longer than 1600m is 8 starts, 1 win, 1 placing. Why have them kept to 1400m and shorter his past 7 runs? The answer might lie in this. His last 2 wins he was priced at $13 and $21.
3. Pushin' Shapes - ran 4th in the race that Achernar Star won last start. That was off a 35 day break, and he has never placed (from 3 attempts), when racing off a longer than 21 day break in the same prep. Coming off a 15 day break here, and is 11 starts, 3 wins and 5 placings, when racing off a 15-21 day break.
5. Royal Star - has Pike on board, and you can NEVER leave Pikey out of the chances in Perth. He rode 4 winners yesterday. Ran 6th in the Achernar Star race, and that was 1st up, off a long spell. Has won 2nd up before, being 2-1-0-0. Has placed in much stronger races, but only one of her wins was longer than 1400m. It was at 2200m in a 3yo Fillies race, and funny things can happen in those types of races. Ran 2nd to Properantes 11 months ago, and meets him 1.5kg better, for being beaten 0.8L
9. Missile Launch - has a 11-6-1-1 career record, and has won 3 from 3 at the distance. Was 5th in the Achernar Star race. Is 2nd up here, and is 3-2-0-1 2nd up. Has never won (or placed!) in anything stronger than a BM72+ race.
So, it's not hard to read between the lines, that Properantes is my Roughie.
Given the info above, I really don't understand the odds!
$3.00 Achernar Star
$3.30 Missile Launch
$5.50 Royal Star
$6.00 Pushin' Shapes
$6.50 Prize Catch
$61.00 Properantes
Properantes is currently $17.20 the win on the tote, and $16 the PLACE fixed odds at Sportsbet! With his record at 1500-1600m, that should be worth a small each-way bet.
Race 7 at Sale today is the Sale Cup. Another 1600m Country LR!
I will be doing my silly first 4's with Realise Potential $41 and The Mighty Jrod $71 as bankers to run 4th.
The best formline in the race, by a mile, is Fastnet Tempest.
Last start ran 2nd to Iconoclasm, with Sirrconi 3rd - they have since both won!
3 starts ago ran 4th to Night's watch, giving him 4kg, and was only 2.55L behind him.
Will settle just beyond Midfield, and power home. There is plenty of pace in the race, with Al Passem, Master Reset and Realise Potential all keen to go forward.
C Williams rides today, and he's had 2 rides on him, for a win and a placing.
I'm keen to back him, and take the quinella with Kingsguard.
Sale race 9 - Tykiato.
she hasn't won for 2 years, but has placed in much MUCH tougher races than this during that period.
At $23/$5.50 she is worth backing on a 1 for the win, 3 for the place basis.
Good luck, if you back any of these.