Discussion 2018: Spring Racing & Punting
- Thread starter Rowsus
- Start date
Just casting my eye over the fields for Saturday - which for racing purests is THE day of racing - and these are the ones that first caught my eye. I'll list them here, and then expand what my form research reveals over the next day or two.
Firstly, my "guess" as to what conditions we'll be dealing with.
Rain predicted for Friday, around 8mm. This is a tricky amount, as the track manager won't want to present a hard track for the first of the 4 days, but can't rely on the rain, in case it doesn't come. This means he will have to water the track, and punt on there not being too much rain. To this end, I'm predicting we might start with a Soft 5, but end up with it upgraded to Good 4 earlyish in the day.
The most important weather factor however, is the wind! It looks like being quite a stiff breeze, coming from the West, tending towards South-West. For those unfamiliar with Flemingon, that means it will be blowing up the straight, and horses will be running into the wind, once they round the turn, and all the way, in the straight races. This tends to favour horses that race with cover, and get out with 200-250m left, and power over the horses that have been facing the breeze. That is a normal pattern of racing for straight races, and even more so, when the wind is blowing like it is expected to on Saturday.
The rail is back in the true position all the way around, and unless there is a "fast lane" up against the rails (which has happened at least twice before on Derby Day!) then finding horses settling between 6 and 8th, 2 or 3 wide WITH COVER, might be the key to finding winners around the bend, and horses settling back, but can come with a good finishing sprint, down the straight.
Flem R3 - 8 Winter Bride $9.5/$3.1
Flem R4 - 6 Brimham Rocks $5.5/$2.1
Flem R6 - 3 Shillelagh $7.0/$2.5 & Amphitrite $4.6/$1.9
Flem R9 - 4 I Am Excited $4.2/$1.8
R'hill R8 - 3 Isaurian $5.5/$1.9
Ascot R7 - 7 Dainty Tess $?.?/$?.?
Firstly, my "guess" as to what conditions we'll be dealing with.
Rain predicted for Friday, around 8mm. This is a tricky amount, as the track manager won't want to present a hard track for the first of the 4 days, but can't rely on the rain, in case it doesn't come. This means he will have to water the track, and punt on there not being too much rain. To this end, I'm predicting we might start with a Soft 5, but end up with it upgraded to Good 4 earlyish in the day.
The most important weather factor however, is the wind! It looks like being quite a stiff breeze, coming from the West, tending towards South-West. For those unfamiliar with Flemingon, that means it will be blowing up the straight, and horses will be running into the wind, once they round the turn, and all the way, in the straight races. This tends to favour horses that race with cover, and get out with 200-250m left, and power over the horses that have been facing the breeze. That is a normal pattern of racing for straight races, and even more so, when the wind is blowing like it is expected to on Saturday.
The rail is back in the true position all the way around, and unless there is a "fast lane" up against the rails (which has happened at least twice before on Derby Day!) then finding horses settling between 6 and 8th, 2 or 3 wide WITH COVER, might be the key to finding winners around the bend, and horses settling back, but can come with a good finishing sprint, down the straight.
Flem R3 - 8 Winter Bride $9.5/$3.1
Flem R4 - 6 Brimham Rocks $5.5/$2.1
Flem R6 - 3 Shillelagh $7.0/$2.5 & Amphitrite $4.6/$1.9
Flem R9 - 4 I Am Excited $4.2/$1.8
R'hill R8 - 3 Isaurian $5.5/$1.9
Ascot R7 - 7 Dainty Tess $?.?/$?.?
Winter Bride
Mare taking on males, in a Gp2 is usually something you'd be cautious about. She has beaten males in restricted races, and ran 3rd in a LR against males. Won her last 2 against mares, both at Gp3 level. Is actually undefeated the "Melbourne way of going".
She had a 63 day break between runs, before coming to Melbourne. Some (like me) count that as a spell, some don't. I say she is 3rd up from a spell, and she holds a 2-2-0-0 record 3rd up. She is coming off a 21 day break, and she is 8-5-1-1 off a 17-24 day break. She performs on all surfaces, so the track condition holds no fears for her.
She's drawn the middle of the pack, in barrier 7, which might be perfect. She can race in the first 4 or 5, or also get back to midfield in her races. There is plenty of pace in the Race, with The Monstar and Runson both likely to go out hard. This should make it easy for her to gain a position with some cover. If she does that, she could prove hard to hold out, the last 200m.
Conclusion
She's trying to go to a new level here, by going to Gp2 for the first time, and trying to beat males in unrestricted company. I tend to be cautious about backing horses trying to get to a new level, so I'd rate her 1U win / 2U place proposition in this.
Mare taking on males, in a Gp2 is usually something you'd be cautious about. She has beaten males in restricted races, and ran 3rd in a LR against males. Won her last 2 against mares, both at Gp3 level. Is actually undefeated the "Melbourne way of going".
She had a 63 day break between runs, before coming to Melbourne. Some (like me) count that as a spell, some don't. I say she is 3rd up from a spell, and she holds a 2-2-0-0 record 3rd up. She is coming off a 21 day break, and she is 8-5-1-1 off a 17-24 day break. She performs on all surfaces, so the track condition holds no fears for her.
She's drawn the middle of the pack, in barrier 7, which might be perfect. She can race in the first 4 or 5, or also get back to midfield in her races. There is plenty of pace in the Race, with The Monstar and Runson both likely to go out hard. This should make it easy for her to gain a position with some cover. If she does that, she could prove hard to hold out, the last 200m.
Conclusion
She's trying to go to a new level here, by going to Gp2 for the first time, and trying to beat males in unrestricted company. I tend to be cautious about backing horses trying to get to a new level, so I'd rate her 1U win / 2U place proposition in this.
Brimham Rocks
Has a career record of 18-4-6-2, but since coming to Aus, he is 7-0-5-2, so you might be entitled to label him a non-winner.
The thing is, his formlines in Aus are just irresistable!
1st Aus start he ran 2nd 1.75L in front of Shoreham (3rd), Shoreham won it's next start at Caulfield.
2nd Aus start he ran 2nd 1.25L in front of Gallic Chieftain (3rd), Gallic Chieftain won it's next start at Flemington. In that same race, Sin To Win ran 2.85L behind Brimham Rocks, then ran a close 2nd to Gallic Chieftain at Flemington. Charlevoix was 8th, 8.55L behind our hero, and then ran a close 4th in the Gallic Chieftain.
3rd Aus start he ran 3rd behind Avilius and was only beaten 0.7L. Avilius won his next 3 starts, and ran 4th in the Cox Plate.
4th Aus start he ran 3rd behind The Lord Mayor, beaten 0.3L. The Lord Mayor won again at Randwick at it's next start.
5th Aus start he ran 2nd behind Avilius again, beaten 0.8L. We know Avilius kept the formline going from above. 3rd in that race was I Am Serious 0.2L behind BR, who then won it's next start Randwick in a Gp3. 4th in the race was Patrick Erin (1.9L behind BR), who won his next start in the Gp1 Metrop.
6th Aus start he ran 2nd to Patrick Erin, beaten 0.1L in the Gp1 Metrop.
7th Aus start he ran 2nd to Yucatan, beaten 1.25L in the Herbert Power.
Outside of the Caulfield Cup, his formlines feature in all the best staying races so far this Spring, and this race is 2 grades below the Caulfield Cup. He is being ridden by who I consider to be the best judge of race pace in Australia, and probably the best jockey in Aus, J McDonald. J Mc has a 22% S/R on Waller trained horses, and a 32% S/R in his last 50 rides. That is phenomenal at any time of the year, but even more so in Oct/Nov!
Conclusion
Seems like he's a really simple option for the bonus bet Specials on offer. 3U win, and get a 3U bonus bet if he runs 2nd or 3rd.
Has a career record of 18-4-6-2, but since coming to Aus, he is 7-0-5-2, so you might be entitled to label him a non-winner.
The thing is, his formlines in Aus are just irresistable!
1st Aus start he ran 2nd 1.75L in front of Shoreham (3rd), Shoreham won it's next start at Caulfield.
2nd Aus start he ran 2nd 1.25L in front of Gallic Chieftain (3rd), Gallic Chieftain won it's next start at Flemington. In that same race, Sin To Win ran 2.85L behind Brimham Rocks, then ran a close 2nd to Gallic Chieftain at Flemington. Charlevoix was 8th, 8.55L behind our hero, and then ran a close 4th in the Gallic Chieftain.
3rd Aus start he ran 3rd behind Avilius and was only beaten 0.7L. Avilius won his next 3 starts, and ran 4th in the Cox Plate.
4th Aus start he ran 3rd behind The Lord Mayor, beaten 0.3L. The Lord Mayor won again at Randwick at it's next start.
5th Aus start he ran 2nd behind Avilius again, beaten 0.8L. We know Avilius kept the formline going from above. 3rd in that race was I Am Serious 0.2L behind BR, who then won it's next start Randwick in a Gp3. 4th in the race was Patrick Erin (1.9L behind BR), who won his next start in the Gp1 Metrop.
6th Aus start he ran 2nd to Patrick Erin, beaten 0.1L in the Gp1 Metrop.
7th Aus start he ran 2nd to Yucatan, beaten 1.25L in the Herbert Power.
Outside of the Caulfield Cup, his formlines feature in all the best staying races so far this Spring, and this race is 2 grades below the Caulfield Cup. He is being ridden by who I consider to be the best judge of race pace in Australia, and probably the best jockey in Aus, J McDonald. J Mc has a 22% S/R on Waller trained horses, and a 32% S/R in his last 50 rides. That is phenomenal at any time of the year, but even more so in Oct/Nov!
Conclusion
Seems like he's a really simple option for the bonus bet Specials on offer. 3U win, and get a 3U bonus bet if he runs 2nd or 3rd.
Wow, that's some homework Rowsus. I'm impressed.
I'm a so called '.50 cent' punter, as I enjoy the excitement of watching the horse I bet on, more then making money. You see, over the past decades of punting, I have finally realised that I can't make a profit, so why try, ay.
Way back in my early punting days, I used to spend many hours of studying the form guide, the best around was in 'The Truth' a bawdy newspaper (I only bought it for the form guide
). Years down the track, I found my win strike rate was as good as my random number selections!!!
An example of my random selection is, in Race 3 I backed Horse No3 barrier's number, but I must clarify, I only bet on the horse if it has 'some' chance to win and never back favourites.
I have a mate who knows a professional punter well, he's been living of his win profits for many years now. I asked him the secret of his mate's success and the answer was, he spends most of a day watching replays. He has actually been banned from 'serious' punting with the bookmakers, mainly relies on the TAB in the Mahogany Room at the Crown Casino.
A few days ago, I started to study the Melb. Cup runners, it's early I know, but so far I can't see a winner, as all the horses that I have studied have an 'if', hmmm. Oh, so far I have eliminated the 10yo Who Shot Thebarman
I'm a so called '.50 cent' punter, as I enjoy the excitement of watching the horse I bet on, more then making money. You see, over the past decades of punting, I have finally realised that I can't make a profit, so why try, ay.
Way back in my early punting days, I used to spend many hours of studying the form guide, the best around was in 'The Truth' a bawdy newspaper (I only bought it for the form guide
). Years down the track, I found my win strike rate was as good as my random number selections!!!An example of my random selection is, in Race 3 I backed Horse No3 barrier's number, but I must clarify, I only bet on the horse if it has 'some' chance to win and never back favourites.
I have a mate who knows a professional punter well, he's been living of his win profits for many years now. I asked him the secret of his mate's success and the answer was, he spends most of a day watching replays. He has actually been banned from 'serious' punting with the bookmakers, mainly relies on the TAB in the Mahogany Room at the Crown Casino.
A few days ago, I started to study the Melb. Cup runners, it's early I know, but so far I can't see a winner, as all the horses that I have studied have an 'if', hmmm. Oh, so far I have eliminated the 10yo Who Shot Thebarman
Hi Bermi, I too was an addict to The Truth. It was far above any formguide available at the time. The Winning Post used to be good, but it wasn't as good as The Truth in it's heyday.
It's journalism was "entertaining" at it's best. The two things I remember best are:
Banner headline "Ron Barassi on drugs!"
Then when you turned to the story is said "Ron Barassi says don't use drugs"
Rodney Hogg was a cricket writer, and wrote a story about Shane Warne, either just before, or just after his Test Debut. In the story he wrote "Shane Warne will take over 300 Test wickets for Australia." Keep in mind, at that time D K Lillee was the only Aus bowler with more than 300 wickets. Well, the editor called Hoggy into the office, and the converation went something like this:
"Geez Hoggy, we know we have an appetite for the sensational, and maybe stretching the facts a little, but saying this kid will take 300+ Test wickets is just too much. You're fired!".
........ 708 Wickets later .........
It's journalism was "entertaining" at it's best. The two things I remember best are:
Banner headline "Ron Barassi on drugs!"
Then when you turned to the story is said "Ron Barassi says don't use drugs"
Rodney Hogg was a cricket writer, and wrote a story about Shane Warne, either just before, or just after his Test Debut. In the story he wrote "Shane Warne will take over 300 Test wickets for Australia." Keep in mind, at that time D K Lillee was the only Aus bowler with more than 300 wickets. Well, the editor called Hoggy into the office, and the converation went something like this:
"Geez Hoggy, we know we have an appetite for the sensational, and maybe stretching the facts a little, but saying this kid will take 300+ Test wickets is just too much. You're fired!".
........ 708 Wickets later .........
Shillelagh
Incredible 1600m form, and coming back to fillies/mares class, even though it is a Gp1.
Last start she was 4th in the Toorak, and ran each of her last 4 200m splits faster than Hartnell! The start before that, was 4th in the Epsom, and ran home the fastest 400m in the race. There is no doubt she can fly, when held up for one last run at them. Also, there are 3 big mile races in the Spring, the Epsom, the Toorak and the Kennedy. She has run the huge run in 2 of them this Spring, and has by-passed the Kennedy, to run against the mares. Just as a point, her last 4 x 200m splits in the Toorak were: 11.18, 11.49, 11.15, 11.62.
She doesn't run against mares too often, and somewhat surprisingly, her record isn't really any better against females, than it is against males! I'm also a bit worried that her records show a troubling trend. Career 28-7-3-1, her first 6 starts were 6-4-1-0, which means her starts after that are 22-3-2-1, which isn't quite stellar. She has done most of her racing in Open company, in Group race, and under the WFA scale carries 57kg here. At Gp3 or higher, she 19-2-2-1, and with 57kg or more, she is 10-1-2-0. none of those figures are inspiring, but those closing sectionals, particularly outstripping Hartnell 4 sectionals in a row, are amazing.
Amphitrite
She just keeps winning, and running times. It's hard to say a bad word against her! Remember how amazing Shillelagh last 4 splits were in the Toorak? Well, let's look at Amphitrite in the Thousand Guineas, over the same track, distance and day: 11.93, 11.85, 11.04, 11.63. They're pretty comparable, and in fact Amphitrite ran a quicker last 400m.
Shillelagh 800-400 22.67, 400-post 22.77
Amphitrite 800-400 23.78, 400-post 22.67
So, on face value, Shillelagh holds an advantage, BUT ........ Shillelagh goes up 3.5kg, and Amphitrite drops 5.5kg. That's a 9kg swing in Amphitrite's favour, coupled with Amphitrite is unbeaten at the track, and at the distance (2-2-0-0 at both), and looks like she will run a strong 2000m, while Shillelagh is 5-1-1-0 at 1600m (and has never raced over longer) and 3-1-1-0 at the track.
There is plenty of pace in this race, which is what both need. Both race like they will be suited if run on horses are winning (read post #192 about expected West/South West wind). It might come down to who gets the lucky break at the right time, but on the numbers, Amphitrite is looking the better of the 2 to, to me.
Incredible 1600m form, and coming back to fillies/mares class, even though it is a Gp1.
Last start she was 4th in the Toorak, and ran each of her last 4 200m splits faster than Hartnell! The start before that, was 4th in the Epsom, and ran home the fastest 400m in the race. There is no doubt she can fly, when held up for one last run at them. Also, there are 3 big mile races in the Spring, the Epsom, the Toorak and the Kennedy. She has run the huge run in 2 of them this Spring, and has by-passed the Kennedy, to run against the mares. Just as a point, her last 4 x 200m splits in the Toorak were: 11.18, 11.49, 11.15, 11.62.
She doesn't run against mares too often, and somewhat surprisingly, her record isn't really any better against females, than it is against males! I'm also a bit worried that her records show a troubling trend. Career 28-7-3-1, her first 6 starts were 6-4-1-0, which means her starts after that are 22-3-2-1, which isn't quite stellar. She has done most of her racing in Open company, in Group race, and under the WFA scale carries 57kg here. At Gp3 or higher, she 19-2-2-1, and with 57kg or more, she is 10-1-2-0. none of those figures are inspiring, but those closing sectionals, particularly outstripping Hartnell 4 sectionals in a row, are amazing.
Amphitrite
She just keeps winning, and running times. It's hard to say a bad word against her! Remember how amazing Shillelagh last 4 splits were in the Toorak? Well, let's look at Amphitrite in the Thousand Guineas, over the same track, distance and day: 11.93, 11.85, 11.04, 11.63. They're pretty comparable, and in fact Amphitrite ran a quicker last 400m.
Shillelagh 800-400 22.67, 400-post 22.77
Amphitrite 800-400 23.78, 400-post 22.67
So, on face value, Shillelagh holds an advantage, BUT ........ Shillelagh goes up 3.5kg, and Amphitrite drops 5.5kg. That's a 9kg swing in Amphitrite's favour, coupled with Amphitrite is unbeaten at the track, and at the distance (2-2-0-0 at both), and looks like she will run a strong 2000m, while Shillelagh is 5-1-1-0 at 1600m (and has never raced over longer) and 3-1-1-0 at the track.
There is plenty of pace in this race, which is what both need. Both race like they will be suited if run on horses are winning (read post #192 about expected West/South West wind). It might come down to who gets the lucky break at the right time, but on the numbers, Amphitrite is looking the better of the 2 to, to me.
Doing my usual early plunge for the MC.
I've narrowed it down to a few chances and will have a stab at the following.
Heavy investment: Magic Circle, Muntahaa & Cross Counter
Small investment: Best Solution, Yucatan, Rostropovich
Those 6 will form the basis for my exotic bets with a few 'roughies' added.
Also have a live CC/MC double going into Best Solution and Yucatan.
I've narrowed it down to a few chances and will have a stab at the following.
Heavy investment: Magic Circle, Muntahaa & Cross Counter
Small investment: Best Solution, Yucatan, Rostropovich
Those 6 will form the basis for my exotic bets with a few 'roughies' added.
Also have a live CC/MC double going into Best Solution and Yucatan.
Good selection of horses there THCLT. I'm waiting to see their barriers and the track condition before I decide on my final selections.
I started betting on the Godolphin's horses when he first tried to win the MC, but lately he hasn't enthused me to bet on them. But I think he has a good chance this year to win the Cup with Best Solution, Cross Counter and Avilius.
Good luck with your live CC/MC double, a good chance to collect!
I started betting on the Godolphin's horses when he first tried to win the MC, but lately he hasn't enthused me to bet on them. But I think he has a good chance this year to win the Cup with Best Solution, Cross Counter and Avilius.
Good luck with your live CC/MC double, a good chance to collect!