Analysis 2019: AFL Fixture Analysis & Discussion

freowho

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#63
Below is a 2019 strength of draw for rucks based on 2018 opponents. Obviuosly the difficulty of opponent won't stay the same but it wouldn't be tipped upside down in one year so it gives us something to work with. Sandi makes a big difference to some of these draws. If he misses round 1 then Goldy has an amazing run this year. I've placed them in order from easiest at the top to toughest at the bottom leading up to their bye. I was considering Naismith but his price might not get a chance to rise quickly enough. What about trading Grundy out if he is above $700K after rnd 10???
Rucks Draw.JPG
 

freowho

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#64
Here is one based on how the top 20 mids went this year against opposition teams compared to their average for the year. No surprise that teams with recognised taggers were hard to score against (Jacobs, Selwood, Dunstan, Steele, Ross and Hewett) but sometimes a good midfield brigade can team together to make it hard for opposition mids without having a designated tagger. Scott Selwood only played half a season but Geelongs midfield still would have been tough to score against.
Looking at next years draw I've ordered them roughly from easiest at the top to toughest at the bottom given their start to the year. Sloane, Merrett and Titch could be early trade in targets. How does Kelly go with a tag? Danger and Dusty could be good starting picks. For those keen on slingshotting to a mid through the byes you would be looking for a run of tags leading up to a round 12 or 13 bye but no one stands out. Maybe Parker,Bont or Treloar?

Mids Draw 2019.JPG
 

Bomber18

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#66
Thanks to @KLo30 for the order of play! I've been able to go through to have a look at which teams have the best loophole draw.

1552811767439.png

Essentially I looked at how many times a team plays early, and when they do, if there is a viable loop option (eg: a VC opportunity for at least one of Grundy, Cripps, Macrae, Gawn, Fyfe, etc). Where it's red, it's cos there's no loophole available.

Best loopholes
  • WCE is quite good pre and post bye, only two games (R9 and R17) where WCE play first and thus there is no loophole available. Bines (102k R/F) is everyone's favourite R3, and he's definitely the pick of the R/Fs. Allen (123k M/F) or Cameron (117k M/F) the other decent options (who might also be chances to get games later in the year)
  • Hawks have a great loophole draw til the bye, but it's not as good post byes. Best Hawks loophole agents are Greaves (110k D/M), Walker (M/F 117k) or Koschitzke (117k D/F). Koschitzke would be my choice if I did choose a loophole as he would combine well to loop rookies with his D/F, especially with Moore or Burgess being switched around.
  • Gold Coast and Freo are the other sides that seem to have decent draws. Nutting (123k D/F) is a good D/F, but I prefer Koschitzke out of the D/Fs due to his slightly cheaper price, their early draws are both similarly good but GC have a better loophole draw late. Rookie loops are mainly needed early on in any case.
Allen or Cameron, I think are the best Floating Donuts to Play (FDTP) I can see. Otherwise, Corbett, Bewley, and Scott might also be pure donuts who could be Donuts to Play. I was happy with W.Rioli playing that Donut to play role for me, so I wouldn't be too disappointed with having a Scott or Bewley as a donut to play, worst case if rookies didn't get selected or a Gibbons/Balta goes huge.
 

Ironhawk

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#67
I would add STK to the list of good teams to consider. Twice they play second (R9 and R22), both these rounds Melbourne play in the first game. Based on this I chose Alabakis as my R3 as a pure ruck donut because I also have Gawn who I can play as VC in those two rounds. Might not work for everyone though.
 

Tails

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#68
Something I put together about a month ago and might as well share ...

- Potential key players matched with the days/time of day they play throughout the season
- Also shows how many games against last years top 4 / bottom 4, No of 5/6 game day breaks and interstate games etc.
- Haven't touched the formatting since I put it together so take that with a grain of salt.

1552816977724.png
 
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#69
Does anyone have a website or system they use to view/calculate how teams concede points to certain positions?

For years I've used http://tooserious.net/forum/ticker.php but it doesn't appear to be working this year, teams are mixed up in the wrong rounds etc

Really helpful for a draft league in picking up gems on the waiver wire.
 

Tails

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#70
Does anyone have a website or system they use to view/calculate how teams concede points to certain positions?

For years I've used http://tooserious.net/forum/ticker.php but it doesn't appear to be working this year, teams are mixed up in the wrong rounds etc

Really helpful for a draft league in picking up gems on the waiver wire.
Not sure what you are looking for exists this year exists as it is very difficult to predict anything with so many rule changes ...
 
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#71
Not sure what you are looking for exists this year exists as it is very difficult to predict anything with so many rule changes ...
There's no predictions here. I'm talking about actual data.

How much % of points teams concede to each supercoach position relative to every other side.

i.e. Brisbane concedes opposition MID's the highest % of points over the last 3 rounds etc.

You can then use that information for MID's playing against Brisbane the coming week.
 

Tails

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#72
There's no predictions here. I'm talking about actual data.

How much % of points teams concede to each supercoach position relative to every other side.

i.e. Brisbane concedes opposition MID's the highest % of points over the last 3 rounds etc.

You can then use that information for MID's playing against Brisbane the coming week.
IMO not too difficult to work out if you put your mind to it .... actual data exists so why not put your mind to it ... too many unknown influencing variables exist to me in SC to even bother ... other formats might be a different story though ...
 

Bomber18

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#73

Darkie

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#74

Bomber18

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#76
From the DFS site (using the DT stats), here's the following SOS for Key Fwds. Shows a really good run coming up for WCE...

1556770361792.png
 
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