2019: Defenders Discussion

Who will you start from the most expensive defenders?

  • Lloyd

    Votes: 9 20.0%
  • Laird

    Votes: 18 40.0%
  • Sicily

    Votes: 7 15.6%
  • Simpson

    Votes: 1 2.2%
  • Whitfield

    Votes: 36 80.0%
  • Hurn

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Crisp

    Votes: 4 8.9%
  • Howe

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Suckling

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 10 22.2%

  • Total voters
    45

Darkie

Vice Captain
Joined
12 Apr 2014
Messages
4,519
Likes
711
AFL Club
Collingwood
#61
27 games in 3 years, history says he’s unlikely to be on field enough to warrant considering him too much when making selections I reckon.
A fair point. Not sure how much to rely on this article, but he's suggesting that's behind him now (as you might expect, having just been traded). He seems to have missed a lot of time with foot injuries - potentially not the worst type of injury from a recurrence perspective (?), albeit he has had at least two long stints with foot injuries to date.

http://www.lions.com.au/news/2018-10-29/qa-marcus-adams
 

Yikes

Member
Joined
26 Dec 2018
Messages
23
Likes
21
AFL Club
GWS Giants
#62
How will the 6-6-6 rule changes affect the likes of Rance and Andrews? Do they have more or less relevance?
 

Darkie

Vice Captain
Joined
12 Apr 2014
Messages
4,519
Likes
711
AFL Club
Collingwood
#64
How will the 6-6-6 rule changes affect the likes of Rance and Andrews? Do they have more or less relevance?
I would be very interested in any thoughts on this as well.

It’s possible the impact of the changes is small, but I think it’s also possible that they turn some marginal picks into good ones and vice versa.

Does anyone have a view on this? Has anyone seen anything written about how the game style changed in trial matches?
 
Last edited:

Yikes

Member
Joined
26 Dec 2018
Messages
23
Likes
21
AFL Club
GWS Giants
#65
I would be very interested in any thoughts on this as well.

It’s possible the impact of the changes is small, but I think it’s also possible that they turn some marginal picks into good ones and vice versa.

Does anyone have a view on this? It has anyone seen anything written about how the game style changed in trial matches?
Yeah I think so too, I recall rance’s season as one of the top defenders was statistically similar to the year before. Not sure how you can explain that season but in that year a lot of Key defenders improved out of nowhere.
 

Darkie

Vice Captain
Joined
12 Apr 2014
Messages
4,519
Likes
711
AFL Club
Collingwood
#67
Maybe their NEAFL team
I recall him being quite handy in his first year. It's a shame if he's gone up there to be a backup option for a side like Brisbane, notwithstanding that they showed a bit in 2018.
 
Joined
25 Jul 2012
Messages
9,689
Likes
2,595
AFL Club
Collingwood
#68
I recall him being quite handy in his first year. It's a shame if he's gone up there to be a backup option for a side like Brisbane, notwithstanding that they showed a bit in 2018.
Cricket season , but can't let this one slide.

Brisbane will be knocking on the door of the 8 this season , got some kids who are about ready to explode.

Play a very fast direct game especially at the Gabba.
 
Last edited:

Darkie

Vice Captain
Joined
12 Apr 2014
Messages
4,519
Likes
711
AFL Club
Collingwood
#69
Cricket season , but can't get this one slide.

Brisbane will be knocking on the door of the 8 this season , got some kids who are about ready to explode.

Play a very fast direct game especially at the Gabba.
I hope you are right, but I'm comfortable with the view that they're not exactly a destination club. Have been 12th or worse every year from 2010 onwards and Queensland is a tough "market".

I read that they lost six games by 10 points or less in 2018, and that's probably a good sign for 2019. It's also evident in their percentage (89.1) being much better than their ladder position (15th, three wins behind Freo) would suggest. They were 15 percentage points behind Adelaide though (12th on percentage) so they still need to improve a fair bit to be contending for a finals spot.

The bookies are suggesting they're only a c. 30% chance to make the eight, so there may be some appeal there for you if your judgment is better than mine :)
 

chels

Rising Star Winner
Joined
8 Jan 2015
Messages
294
Likes
75
AFL Club
Sydney
#70
Exactly Herbie 66, +1.

Some terrific kids who may well have different roles with D Beams' departure and Neale's arrival. Getting the right kids in your side will mean a step toward to a good SC season.
 
Joined
25 Jul 2012
Messages
9,689
Likes
2,595
AFL Club
Collingwood
#71
I hope you are right, but I'm comfortable with the view that they're not exactly a destination club. Have been 12th or worse every year from 2010 onwards and Queensland is a tough "market".

I read that they lost six games by 10 points or less in 2018, and that's probably a good sign for 2019. It's also evident in their percentage (89.1) being much better than their ladder position (15th, three wins behind Freo) would suggest. They were 15 percentage points behind Adelaide though (12th on percentage) so they still need to improve a fair bit to be contending for a finals spot.

The bookies are suggesting they're only a c. 30% chance to make the eight, so there may be some appeal there for you if your judgment is better than mine :)
Too many stats for me to digest at this time of year , think Fagan and Hodge have started to turn things around in the last season or so.

If there defence can't learn and improve from Hodge no one can teach them.

Only watched a few games , but gut feel is they are developing something special.

Andrews , Berry , McCluggage , Rayner , Witherden etc have something about them.

Agree hard market to crack , but if the team performs you just hope these kids hang around for 8-10 years
 

Darkie

Vice Captain
Joined
12 Apr 2014
Messages
4,519
Likes
711
AFL Club
Collingwood
#72
Yeah I think so too, I recall rance’s season as one of the top defenders was statistically similar to the year before. Not sure how you can explain that season but in that year a lot of Key defenders improved out of nowhere.
I think SC changed the scoring to upweight actions close to either goal (and implicitly downweight those further away) perhaps two or three years ago. This was flagged at the time but I don't think it was quantified. That was more of a scoring change than a rule change, but it seemed significant.

I did some digging on rule changes and posted my preliminary thoughts and some links here - it might be of interest:

https://supercoachscores.com/threads/new-rules-for-2019-how-will-they-affect-the-game.3946/page-2
 

pizza safety

Well-known member
Joined
15 Oct 2018
Messages
250
Likes
386
AFL Club
Essendon
#73
Looked like his role changed after the byes as he averaged 20 less than pre bye and only averaged 15.29 disposals post bye with 1 game over 15 disposals which could indicate that he was utilised more as a lock-down defender than an attacking rebounder. The more I look into the Ryan selection the more enticed I am in comparison to Blakely as the same concerns are present with Ross changing their roles and I think Ryan could be the safer option due to Blakely's injury history and potentially Brayshaw, Cerra, etc receiving more midfield minutes whereas Ryan should be the main distributor out of the backline.

In regards to trusting Ross, I don't think we ever can confidently.
According to the prospectus from this year he was barely given a stopping role in 2017 as none of his match ups lasted longer than 40 minutes in 2017, it will be interesting to find out if that was also true this year.
 

Yikes

Member
Joined
26 Dec 2018
Messages
23
Likes
21
AFL Club
GWS Giants
#75
How do we even consider the players without any clarification on the rules? All of the defenders we're considering except for Blakely and Andrews (Laird, Whitfield, Williams, Simpson, Ryan) are all direct victims/beneficiaries of such changes.
 

Darkie

Vice Captain
Joined
12 Apr 2014
Messages
4,519
Likes
711
AFL Club
Collingwood
#76
How do we even consider the players without any clarification on the rules? All of the defenders we're considering except for Blakely and Andrews (Laird, Whitfield, Williams, Simpson, Ryan) are all direct victims/beneficiaries of such changes.
It's a good question.

Are you excluding those two on the basis that they'll play midfield/KPD?
 

randomcliche

Rising Star Nominee
Joined
3 May 2017
Messages
164
Likes
134
AFL Club
Hawthorn
#78
So, lots of people are running Whitfield. In trying to fit in C.Blakely I just hit the minus next to him for the first time...I've reversed it. But it's got me thinking how Zwillliams and Whitfield impact each other...
 

Bomber18

Dual Brownlow Medalist
Joined
11 Nov 2012
Messages
12,072
Likes
1,338
AFL Club
Essendon
#79
I spy with my little eye, CBlakely in full training (source: Freo BF Board). Bennell also in full training an added bonus.

Who has the best training session? Blakely was in everything, and Lobb took some good leading marks. But Bennell participated in every drill, and was involved in the sims with precise kicking, a fair pack mark and was at the beginning of a chain of kicks that went the length of the ground. I don’t know if he’s slowed down much because of being out of the game for so long, but he can still get to the right places and deliver the ball on a platter.
 
Top