Analysis 2020 Coaches Choice

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Hawthorn
#1
Coaches Choice 2020

Wasn't sure if I would post this analysis this year, but found myself doing the spreadsheet this afternoon and figured I would share. Hopefully it helps you in your team decisions. Enjoy :)

Rules
- mids are mid only
- all other positions include dpp
- % has been rounded up/down to the nearest whole per cent

Coaches Choice - 27/1/20

Overall
1)
Pickett = 67%
2) Grundy = 66%
3) Whitfield = 61%
4) Martin = 59%
5) Rowell = 58%
6) Rankine = 58%
7) Docherty = 54%
8) Hill = 53%
9) Cripps = 52%
10) Smith = 51%

Defenders
1)
Docherty = 54%
2) Hill = 53%
3) Gould = 46%
4) Rivers = 32%
5) Lloyd = 31%
6) Doedee = 28%
7) Young = 27%
8) Roberton = 27%
9) Williams = 22%
10) Bianco = 22%

Mids
1)
Pickett = 67%
2) Rowell = 58%
3) Cripps = 52%
4) Fyfe = 40%
5) Danger = 30%
6) McHenry = 29%
7) Macrae = 29%
8) Hibberd = 27%
9) Robertson = 27%
10) Neale = 26%

Rucks
1)
Grundy = 66%
2) Gawn = 42%
3) Cameron = 34%
4) Comben = 16%
5) Conroy = 14%
6) Nicnat = 13%
7) Jacobs = 12%
8) Draper = 9%
9) Marshall = 7%
10) Patton = 7%

Forwards
1)
Whitfield = 61%
2) Martin = 59%
3) Rankine = 58%
4) Hill = 53%
5) Smith = 51%
6) King = 41%
7) Steven = 38%
8) Cockatoo = 35%
9) Cameron = 34%
10) Flanders = 23%
 
Joined
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AFL Club
Brisbane
#4
Coaches Choice 2020

Wasn't sure if I would post this analysis this year, but found myself doing the spreadsheet this afternoon and figured I would share. Hopefully it helps you in your team decisions. Enjoy :)

Rules
- mids are mid only
- all other positions include dpp
- % has been rounded up/down to the nearest whole per cent

Coaches Choice - 27/1/20

Overall
1)
Pickett = 67%
2) Grundy = 66%
3) Whitfield = 61%
4) Martin = 59%
5) Rowell = 58%
6) Rankine = 58%
7) Docherty = 54%
8) Hill = 53%
9) Cripps = 52%
10) Smith = 51%
Hi all, can someone explain to me why Smith is so popular?
 
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Fremantle
#5
Hi all, can someone explain to me why Smith is so popular?
1. Occupational surnames are often the most common. Smith coming from blacksmith in England.
2. A lot of immigrants and slaves wanted to fit in to their new country and would change their surname to a popular one in the country they were moving to making these occupational names even more prevalent.
:)
 

Darkie

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Collingwood
#8
Sorry Tim.
Welcome to the forum.
I'm assuming Devon Smith.
Has previously been a forward keeper. Not a lot of stars at Essendon so should be in the midfield rotations. Has said he is having his best preseason for many years. Is very cheap.
Exactly. Is also DPP, and players may only need to average c. 95 to be a top 6 keeper in the forward line (ie what Greene, the 6th dearest forward, averaged last year).

If you're paying c. 62 for him, and he gets within touching distance of c. 95, he's not worth using a trade to upgrade anyway, and you've banked a lot of loose change.

That type of pick doesn't appeal to everyone, and everyone will have their own expectations of what he will score, but assuming he stays fit he will be one of my first picked.
 
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Brisbane
#9
1. Occupational surnames are often the most common. Smith coming from blacksmith in England.
2. A lot of immigrants and slaves wanted to fit in to their new country and would change their surname to a popular one in the country they were moving to making these occupational names even more prevalent.
:)
Haha wasn't expecting this one at all, but thanks Mr Encyclopedia! Also interested in hearing why Cripps is so popular, how much upside is there given his price?
 
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Fremantle
#10
Haha wasn't expecting this one at all, but thanks Mr Encyclopedia! Also interested in hearing why Cripps is so popular, how much upside is there given his price?
Upside is good but it isn't always a prerequisite. 30 trades disappear really quickly and good coaches make most of their decisions and do their upgrades early to bank points and then brace for the run home. So you need some good reliable players that you don't have to think about. One previous winner only had 7 keepers for the whole year but it's usually more than that.
Cripps is still within a good age range for a mid, rarely misses games, has no internal threats for his role and doesn't seem to be affected whether Carlton will have a good or bad year. Very solid pick.
 
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Hawthorn
#12
Coaches Choice - 2/2/20

Overall
1)
Pickett = 67% (was 67%)
2) Grundy = 66% (was 66%)
3) Whitfield = 61% (was 61%)
4) Martin = 59% (was 59%)
5) Rankine = 59% (was 58%)
6) Rowell = 58% (was 58%)
7) Docherty = 54% (was 54%)
8) Hill = 54% (was 53%)
9) Cripps = 51% (was 52%)
10) Smith = 49% (was 51%)
Changes = none

Defenders
1)
Hill = 54% (was 53%)
2) Docherty = 53% (was 54%)
3) Gould = 46% (was 46%)
4) Rivers = 33% (was 32%)
5) Lloyd = 31% (was 31%)
6) Doedee = 30% (was 28%)
7) Young = 28% (was 27%)
8) Roberton = 27% (was 27%)
9) Starcevich = 22% (new)
10) Bianco = 22% (was 22%)
Changes = Williams out, Starcevich in

Mids
1)
Pickett = 67% (was 67%)
2) Rowell = 58% (was 67%)
3) Cripps = 51% (was 52%)
4) Fyfe = 39% (was 40%)
5) Macrae = 30% (was 29%)
6) McHenry = 30% (was 29%)
7) Danger = 30% (was 30%)
8) Robertson = 28% (was 27%)
9) Neale = 26% (was 26%)
10) Hibberd = 23% (was 27%)
Changes = none

Rucks
1)
Grundy = 66% (was 66%)
2) Gawn = 36% (was 42%)
3) Cameron = 35% (was 34%)
4) Comben = 16% (was 16%)
5) Conroy = 14% (was 14%)
6) Jacobs = 14% (was 12%)
7) Nicnat = 13% (was 13%)
8) Draper = 8% (was 9%)
9) Marshall = 7% (was 7%)
10) Patton = 6% (was 7%)
Changes = none

Forwards
1)
Whitfield = 61% (was 61%)
2) Martin = 59% (was 59%)
3) Rankine = 59% (was 58%)
4) Hill = 54% (was 53%)
5) Smith = 49% (was 51%)
6) Cockatoo = 43% (was 35%)
7) King = 42% (was 41%)
8) Cameron = 35% (was 34%)
9) Steven = 33% (was 38%)
10) Flanders = 22% (was 23%)
Changes = none
 
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Fremantle
#14
I've been thinking about this thread. :oops:
What we really want to know is what the best coaches are thinking. Thanks to MarkM's great thread during the season we can do this. But if we follow the numbers during pre-season we are following all the bad coaches as well. Possibly one of the flaws of starting with a cookie cutter side. It's also often said that apart from long term injury news, pre-season shouldn't change our thinking on premiums and the best coaches will usually stick to their original thoughts.
Is there a way to dig a little deeper?
I'm definitely biased and it's a small sample but I think the polls on this website are a good source.
I also think that if some negative news comes out, i.e. Cripps had a bad pre-season game, and the numbers shift, it's probably the bad coaches who are shifting. Selwood had a small injury just before his best year.
Am I right or am I right?
 
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North Melb.
#15
I've been thinking about this thread. :oops:
What we really want to know is what the best coaches are thinking. Thanks to MarkM's great thread during the season we can do this. But if we follow the numbers during pre-season we are following all the bad coaches as well. Possibly one of the flaws of starting with a cookie cutter side. It's also often said that apart from long term injury news, pre-season shouldn't change our thinking on premiums and the best coaches will usually stick to their original thoughts.
Is there a way to dig a little deeper?
I'm definitely biased and it's a small sample but I think the polls on this website are a good source.
I also think that if some negative news comes out, i.e. Cripps had a bad pre-season game, and the numbers shift, it's probably the bad coaches who are shifting. Selwood had a small injury just before his best year.
Am I right or am I right?
Spot on mate. I often make a 'cookie cutter' team then remove a player or two here and there for salary cap constraints, but then re gig it slightly with players I am keen on to get a somewhat different looking team
 
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Hawthorn
#16
Thought it'd be interesting to see these numbers as intra-club matches kick off to see how much changes with them.

Coaches Choice - 14/2/20

Overall
1)
Pickett = 67% (was 67%)
2) Grundy = 65% (was 66%)
3) Whitfield = 60% (was 61%)
4) Rowell = 59% (was 58%)
5) Rankine = 58% (was 59%)
6) Martin = 57% (was 59%)
7) Hill = 54% (was 54%)
8) Cripps = 51% (was 51%)
9) Docherty = 51% (was 54%)
10) Smith = 48% (was 49%)
Changes = none

Defenders
1)
Hill = 54% (was 54%)
2) Docherty = 51% (was 53%)
3) Gould = 47% (was 46%)
4) Rivers = 35% (was 33%)
5) Young = 33% (was 28%)
6) Lloyd = 30% (was 31%)
7) Doedee = 30% (was 30%)
8) Roberton = 25% (was 27%)
9) Starcevich = 23% (was 22%)
10) Williams = 22% (new)
Changes = Bianco out, Williams in

Mids
1)
Pickett = 67% (was 67%)
2) Rowell = 59% (was 58%)
3) Cripps = 51% (was 51%)
4) Fyfe = 39% (was 39%)
5) Macrae = 31% (was 30%)
6) McHenry = 31% (was 30%)
7) Robertson = 28% (was 28%)
8) Danger = 28% (was 30%)
9) Neale = 27% (was 26%)
10) Mead = 19% (new)
Changes = Hibberd out, Mead in

Rucks
1)
Grundy = 65% (was 66%)
2) Cameron = 36% (was 35%)
3) Gawn = 29% (was 36%)
4) Comben = 17% (was 16%)
5) Jacobs = 14% (was 14%)
6) Nicnat = 14% (was 13%)
7) Conroy = 14% (was 14%)
8) Marshall = 8% (was 7%)
9) Patton = 6% (was 6%)
10) O'Brien = 6% (new)
Changes = Draper out, O'Brien in

Forwards
1)
Whitfield = 60% (was 61%)
2) Rankine = 58% (was 59%)
3) Martin = 57% (was 59%)
4) Hill = 54% (was 54%)
5) Smith = 48% (was 49%)
6) King = 46% (was 42%)
7) Cockatoo = 45% (was 43%)
8) Cameron = 36% (was 35%)
9) Steven = 31% (was 33%)
10) Bonar = 25% (new)
Changes = Flanders out, Bonar in

Gawn may be a POD at this rate.
 
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AFL Club
Adelaide
#20
I've been thinking about this thread. :oops:
What we really want to know is what the best coaches are thinking. Thanks to MarkM's great thread during the season we can do this. But if we follow the numbers during pre-season we are following all the bad coaches as well. Possibly one of the flaws of starting with a cookie cutter side. It's also often said that apart from long term injury news, pre-season shouldn't change our thinking on premiums and the best coaches will usually stick to their original thoughts.
Is there a way to dig a little deeper?
I'm definitely biased and it's a small sample but I think the polls on this website are a good source.
I also think that if some negative news comes out, i.e. Cripps had a bad pre-season game, and the numbers shift, it's probably the bad coaches who are shifting. Selwood had a small injury just before his best year.
Am I right or am I right?
I’m not sure truly bad coaches even have a team settled yet or have even started. I think the stats accurately reflect those working on their sides now and if you are doing that you probably aren’t a “bad” coach.

I think cookie cutter is ok because it’s only those 3-5 x v y choices usually with the premiums that you need to set you apart. I’ve never gone well with a unique funky structure.
 
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