Opinion 2020: Super Early Player Discussions

benderiffic

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Really enjoying the chat about fixture structure.

I love my north american sports and love the conference idea and think this could be brought over to the AFL. This would hopefully create more rivalries with the teams you play twice every year.

Western: WC, Freo, Adel, Port, Geel, WB
Northern: Bris, GC, Syd, GWS, North, Ess
Central: Coll, Rich. Carl, Haw, Melb, STK
 

Spots

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Really enjoying the chat about fixture structure.

I love my north american sports and love the conference idea and think this could be brought over to the AFL. This would hopefully create more rivalries with the teams you play twice every year.

Western: WC, Freo, Adel, Port, Geel, WB
Northern: Bris, GC, Syd, GWS, North, Ess
Central: Coll, Rich. Carl, Haw, Melb, STK
Haha - there'd be a mutiny with those conferences!!

1 - I assume the Grand Final would have to be mobile.... handy for 'Central' they get to play all or most games at the G!
2 - Cats, North, Bombers and Doggies fans would love the extra travel too...
 

Ironhawk

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Haha - there'd be a mutiny with those conferences!!

1 - I assume the Grand Final would have to be mobile.... handy for 'Central' they get to play all or most games at the G!
2 - Cats, North, Bombers and Doggies fans would love the extra travel too...
This is the big issue with any conference system - having 10 Victorian based sides.

I could possibly see it working if there were 20 sides, with 4 conferences of 5 teams. Chuck Tassie in with SA/WA, split Vic into two conferences of 5 and have the 4 QLD/NSW teams joined by another team from NT/ACT/NZ or wherever. Still nowhere near ideal though.
 

Professor

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With McVeigh retiring is Dawson worth a look if he takes over the Mills role allowing Mills to play midfield you think?
Or is Lloyd still too much of a ball pig to consider Dawson?
I'd be looking at Heeney in the middle more as they've recruited Lewis Taylor and Sam Gray to compliment Paps in the forward line
 

Darkie

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Buddy with a decent preseason could be looked at. Nick Riewoldt had one last good year at 34 yrs old.
Agreed - he is only 32 today and was a proper premo as recently as 2018.

Personally I’d say he’s a bit dear as a starting premium, so in a way we’d probably need him to have a full preseason but for some reason start the year slowly for it to be worthwhile. That, or maybe picking him as a pinch hitter with a good early draw.
 

Connoisseur

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Agreed - he is only 32 today and was a proper premo as recently as 2018.

Personally I’d say he’s a bit dear as a starting premium, so in a way we’d probably need him to have a full preseason but for some reason start the year slowly for it to be worthwhile. That, or maybe picking him as a pinch hitter with a good early draw.
Buddy with a decent preseason could be looked at. Nick Riewoldt had one last good year at 34 yrs old.
1573037487643.png
 

Connoisseur

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With McVeigh retiring is Dawson worth a look if he takes over the Mills role allowing Mills to play midfield you think?
Or is Lloyd still too much of a ball pig to consider Dawson?
J Dawson:
1573038083240.png
1573038108373.png

1573038377720.png
Avg without J McVeigh in 2019: 90.27 from 15 (6/15 below 80, 10/15 below 100, 1/15 120+)

1573038562342.png

Isn't dependent on amassing a large amount of the ball evident by only 1 game above 30 disposals and 2 in excess of 25. Displays a tendency to kick rather than handball, efficient by foot as well as registering solid tackle numbers which all bode well for his SC potential.
 

Seymour Skinner

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Buddy with a decent preseason could be looked at. Nick Riewoldt had one last good year at 34 yrs old.
Has a pretty nice looking opening month if he does fire through the preseason. Should be just under 400k.

Crows (AO) historically his 2nd worst match up, but have significantly dropped off since he played them last in round 2 this year.
Bombers (SCG) his bunnies, average of 114.8 over his career.
GC (MS) suprisingly his 3rd worse match up, only 81.4 from 8 matches.
Blues (SCG) his second best match up, 108.9.

Edit: just to add to this, Freako has tweeted that he'll be at his lowest ever starting price, which means he'll be <$323,500 which was his starting price all the way back in 2006.

Edit again lol: Freako replied to me and said he won't be quite that cheap, due to the SC salary cap changing a bit since then, but he will still be reasonably cheap.
 
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Connoisseur

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Has a pretty nice looking opening month if he does fire through the preseason. Should be just under 400k.

Crows (AO) historically his 2nd worst match up, but have significantly dropped off since he played them last in round 2 this year.
Bombers (SCG) his bunnies, average of 114.8 over his career.
GC (MS) suprisingly his 3rd worse match up, only 81.4 from 8 matches.
Blues (SCG) his second best match up, 108.9.
L Franklin:
Wins Avg since 2007 (seasons averaging 90+): 108.74 from 139 (53/139 below 100, 47/139 120+)
2007: 95.58 from 12
2008: 115.29 from 17
2010: 113.44 from 9
2011: 119.13 from 15
2012: 127.08 from 12
2013: 96.38 from 16
2014: 108.4 from 15
2016: 95.76 from 14
2017: 104.14 from 14
2018: 118.42 from 12

Losses Avg since 2007 (seasons averaging 90+): 81.87 from 54 (39/54 below 100, 5/54 120+)
2007: 85 from 8
2008: 78.8 from 5
2010: 102.57 from 7
2011: 79.5 from 4
2012: 80.75 from 4
2013: 58.67 from 3
2014: 68.25 from 4
2016: 90.6 from 5
2017: 88.13 from 8
2018: 63.5 from 6



2019 Wins Avg: 87 from 4
2019 Losses Avg: 63 from 6

1573089450383.png
1573089824698.png

In 2019 L Franklin:
Recorded his lowest disposals avg since 2006 and only the 2nd time below 15 disposals since 2007 (other occurrence was 2015).
Recorded less than 6 marks a game after recording 6.7, 6.6 and 6.0 in the previous 3 seasons.
Lowest goals avg since 2006 and only the 3rd time since 2007, that he has averaged less than 3 goals a game.
Career low tackles avg
Career low score involvements avg but finished 9th across the AFL in that category per game in 2019

 
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Spots

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L Franklin:
Wins Avg since 2007 (seasons averaging 90+): 108.74 from 139 (53/139 below 100, 47/139 120+)
2007: 95.58 from 12
2008: 115.29 from 17
2010: 113.44 from 9
2011: 119.13 from 15
2012: 127.08 from 12
2013: 96.38 from 16
2014: 108.4 from 15
2016: 95.76 from 14
2017: 104.14 from 14
2018: 118.42 from 12

Losses Avg since 2007 (seasons averaging 90+): 81.87 from 54 (39/54 below 100, 5/54 120+)
2007: 85 from 8
2008: 78.8 from 5
2010: 102.57 from 7
2011: 79.5 from 4
2012: 80.75 from 4
2013: 58.67 from 3
2014: 68.25 from 4
2016: 90.6 from 5
2017: 88.13 from 8
2018: 63.5 from 6



2019 Wins Avg: 87 from 4
2019 Losses Avg: 63 from 6

View attachment 12553
View attachment 12554

In 2019 L Franklin:
Recorded his lowest disposals avg since 2006 and only the 2nd time below 15 disposals since 2007 (other occurrence was 2015).
Recorded less than 6 marks a game after recording 6.7, 6.6 and 6.0 in the previous 3 seasons.
Lowest goals avg since 2006 and only the 3rd time since 2007, that he has averaged less than 3 goals a game.
Career low tackles avg
Career low score involvements avg but finished 9th across the AFL in that category per game in 2019

So what I read from this is that if you see Sydney winning more games this year, he's a must have!

Interesting to read today that he's never actually completed a full pre-season... this could be his year.
 

Ironhawk

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I fully expect him to break down again at some stage. Happens every time I select him. I dunno if I'll risk him, probably leaning to not picking him. Brilliant value if 2019 was an anomaly.
 

Connoisseur

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So what I read from this is that if you see Sydney winning more games this year, he's a must have!

Interesting to read today that he's never actually completed a full pre-season... this could be his year.
Soft opening draw and likely starting below 400,000 which means he could be used as an expensive stepping stone thus allowing us to get a gauge on the best fwd premiums whilst also providing more cash for other lines or a potential season long keeper if he reverts back to his usual output, but his durability is concerning.

Large variety of discounted fwds ranging from D Smith, S Menegola, C Wingard, T McDonald, etc that present great value.
 

Spots

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Another tick against owning Buddy is he has a history of 1-2 week injuries keeping him out for 4-5 weeks which really stuffs owners not wanting to waste trades
 

Presto

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Really enjoying the chat about fixture structure.

I love my north american sports and love the conference idea and think this could be brought over to the AFL. This would hopefully create more rivalries with the teams you play twice every year.

Western: WC, Freo, Adel, Port, Geel, WB
Northern: Bris, GC, Syd, GWS, North, Ess
Central: Coll, Rich. Carl, Haw, Melb, STK
I do not think this would be possible: Can you imagine the furor: Collingwood, Richmond always playing at home, while Essendon and North must travel four times to Queensland or Geelong and Bulldogs to Perth and Adelaide.
Probably it would be better to forget geographical conferences.
 
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