Competitions 2020: SuperCoach Racing Classic - Rnd 4 early tables up.

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#1
I didn't see a topic for 2020 - But I could see it was opening.

I don't know much about the horses, but I can mine the data out of the sites, so I am looking for "partners" to do the 2020 season...

(I know it is a bit early - and I just created in a rush a EPL AND a NFL team, thank you Mr Random...),

I guess with a bit more time & preparation we could have something ready before the horse season starts ...

anyone interested ?
 

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South Australian horses have already had a significant impact on feature races this Spring, so why shouldn’t my stable reflect some bias.
Let’s kick off with Instant Celebrity, a steal for $150,000. The Stokes stable has always had an extremely high opinion of the three-year old filly and Tommy Stokes has done a terrific job as the Adelaide boss.
The Thousand Guineas is the mission and the stable has altered the preparation in comparison to previous attempts at the three-year challenge.
Then there is Behemoth, an easy selection on the strength of the Memsie and Sir Rupert victories, and trainer David Jolly could not be more content with the big bloke. The Toorak or Cantala, maybe even both, are prime targets. The Everest is also not out of the question.
As for the other SA selections, I’m probably clutching at a few straws with The Brumby, The Multiplier and Crown Mist, who can all be squeezed in at reasonable prices.
The Brumby was beaten less than a length by Instant Celebrity in the Oaklands Plate.
The Multiplier had a handy win at Morphettville last week and trainer Will Clarken has already had Melbourne success with Vella Bella winning the McEwen.
And Crown Mist has shown promise for the Gordon Richards stable.
Hungry Heart is an obvious choice for the stable, favourite for the Flight Stakes and incredible value at $200,000
Russian Camelot will score heavily for SuperCoach stables, and Mugatoo should nail handy points at Randwick.
And how can Craig Williams not have success?

WARREN’S RD 1 TEAM
Behemoth $350,000
Russian Camelot $350,000
Mugatoo $325,000
Hungry Heart $200,000
Instant Celebrity $150,000
Alcyone $125,000
Crown Mint $125,000
The Brumby $125,000
Night Raid $100,000
The Multiplier $100,000
Annaviso (emg) $50,000
Jockey: Craig Williams
Salary cap spent: $2m


GILBERT GARDINER’S STABLE
Arcadia Queen (C) $400,000
Surprise Baby $375,000
Russian Camelot $350,000
Persan $200,000
Cadre Du Noir $175,000
Mozzie Monster $125,000
Ain’tnodeeldun $100,000
Night Raid $100,000
Contract Signed $75,000
Buildmeupbuttercup $50,000
Deep Speed (emg) $50,000
Jockey: James McDonald
Salary Cap spent: $2m

All aboard the hype trains!
Two of the top three were no-brainers, with Russian Camelot and Surprise Baby the clear standouts from Arcadia Queen.
The West Aussie’s slashing second at Flemington convinced Good Capitalist to include the glamour mare, who should be winning one or more Group 1s this time.
Not Robinson Crusoe here, but Persan deserves to be a Cups contender and selected because I think the Group 2 Bart Cummings is well within the son of Pierro’s grasp.
Cadre Du Noir is another with a bright future despite going down at short odds last start when posted wide the trip. Looks more than capable of picking up staying features in Sydney.
Night Raid and Mozzie Monster are in the team and will be relied on to bank some three-year-old Group races, while Ain’tnodeeldun, Contract Signed, Buildmeupbuttercup and Deep Speed are placeholders only until we see nominations and final fields.
Tossed up between Damien Oliver and James McDonald as my jockey selection and settled on the former as I think he’ll get the best rides in Sydney.

BRAD WATERS’ STABLE
Gytrash $425,000
Russian Camelot (c) $350,000
Schabau $225,000
Showmanship $225,000
Hungry Heart $200,000
Cadre Du Noir $175,000
Alcyone $125,000
Night Raid $100,000
Tanaawol $75,000
Annavisto $50,000
Collide $50,000 (emg)
Salary cap spent: $2 million
Jockey: Damien Oliver

Trying to cover big races in two states makes life tough when picking my initial Supercoach Racing stable so putting yourself in every trainer’s shoes is the only way to sort out the choices.
The $2 million budget probably doesn’t allow us to have a crack at winning all four Group 1 races on the day – the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington and the Epsom, Metropolitan and Flight Stakes in Sydney – so my approach is to look for value with obvious choices.
Hungry Heart is the short-priced favourite for the Flight Stakes but is great value at only $200,000 for Week 1. She’s a lock at that price.
Russian Camelot is a $350,000 buy but the Turnbull Stakes over the Flemington 2000m course looks the perfect race for his Cups preparation.
The staying ranks provided the toughest decision for the opening week. The Metrop is on at Randwick but I’ve decided to target the Group 3 Bart Cummings at Flemington with two possible runners - Schabau and Cadre Du Noir.
Either horse could be switched to Sydney for the Metrop should connections desire.
I’m thinking the Group 2 Premiere Stakes would be a great race for Gytrash’s final lead-up run to The Everest and he’ll be extremely hard to beat there.
I think I’ve found some real value among the three-year-old ranks with the smart Annavisto a steal at $50,000 while Alcyone could tackle the 1800m Super Impose Stakes at Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day.
And what better jockey to carry us through the Supercoach Racing period than Damien Oliver?

CHRIS VERNUCCIO’S STABLE
Russian Camelot $350,000
Mugatoo $325,000
Dame Giselle $225,000
Schabau $225,000
Hungry Heart (c) $200,000
Kisukano $200,000
Instant Celebrity $150,000
Mozzie Monster $125,000
Night Raid $100,000
Buildmeupbuttercup $50,000
Deep Speed $50,000 (emg)
Jockey: James McDonald
Salary cap spent: $2,000,000

The Epsom or Metropolitan for Mugatoo? The latter is the preference for the lightly-raced ex-English galloper.
Either way, both races are Group 1s in the opening round of SuperCoach Racing and the six-year-old gelding is a near-certainty to be a lock for my final Round 1 team at $325,000.
One change this spring is Round 1 has been scheduled the week after the Golden Rose meeting, where last year there were an abundance of high-quality three-year-olds to keep a tight $2 million salary cap well under budget.
Therefore, the Group 1 Flight Stakes for three-year-old fillies is the race to target. The top two in the market Hungry Heart and Dame Giselle are the obvious picks, and Queensland filly Kisukano has shown class in her wins.
The most I’ve spent is $350,000 on South Australian Derby winner Russian Camelot, and there’s a high level of expectation with the northern hemisphere-bred colt.
There was no room for four-year-old mare Probabeel just yet but she’s an alternative option in the Epsom Handicap where her price of $375,000 appeals.
The Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes is also for the fillies and will help ease the budget constraints.
Night Raid most likely will be running the following week in the Thousand Guineas but Mozzie Monster and Instant Celebrity are possibilities. But the necessary changes will be made closer to lockout.
German import Schabau has come back in great order and will aim to book a Melbourne Cup berth in the Bart Cummings.
For now, my $50,000 cheapies are Buildmeupbuttercup and Deep Speed. Both are unraced three-year-olds and who knows if they’re up to city standard. No doubt these positions will change before Round 1 starts.
 

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NATURE STRIP
6yo gelding
SuperCoach price: $500,000
Target races: The Everest (Round 3), VRC Sprint (Round 8)
Rated the world’s best sprinter, Chris Waller’s stable star suffered a shock loss in the Concorde Stakes last week but the first-up defeat has become a recent pattern. His autumn campaign began with a disappointing fourth in the Lightning Stakes before he rebounded with breathtaking wins in the Challenge Stakes (Group 2) and T.J. Smith Stakes (Group 1). Expect him to return to his explosive best in the The Everest.

GYTRASH
5yo gelding
SuperCoach price: $425,000
Target races: The Everest (Round 3), VRC Sprint (Round 8)
The late-blooming sprinter defeated Nature Strip for the second time in the Concorde Stakes. On the strength of that 1½-length win the Lightning Stakes winner will be even more formidable this spring.

ALLIGATOR BLOOD
4yo gelding
SuperCoach price: $400,000
Target races: Silver Eagle (Round 2), Golden Eagle (Round 5)
The one-time cult horse is losing his fan appeal, no doubt because of the antics of his owner following his Magic Millions disqualification. Fortunately, his Australian Guineas victory wasn’t taken away, which was his 10th win in 11 starts (before the MM Guineas was stripped off his record). His unplaced finish in the All-Star Mile may have been a race too many at the end of a busy campaign. The Alligator made his anticipated return at Doomben last Saturday with a fast-finishing third.

BIVOUAC
4yo horse
SuperCoach price: $450,000
Target races: The Everest (Round 3), Golden Eagle (Round 5)
Won the Newmarket Handicap as a three-year-old in an otherwise underwhelming autumn campaign. That may seem a harsh call considering he did win the country’s premier handicap sprint but he performed below market expectations in his other four runs. However, the Godolphin stable is confident the entire can make a statement this spring. Resumes this Saturday at Randwick.

VERRY ELLEEGANT
5yo mare
SuperCoach price: $475,000
Target races: Cox Plate (Round 4), Melbourne Cup (Round 6)
She went to a new level in the autumn with a dominant win in the Group 1 Tancred Stakes and was runner-up to high-class English raider Addeybb in the Ranvet Stakes and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The Chris Waller mare is possibly going even better after resuming with a tough win in the Winx Stakes over 1400m, which is well short of her preferred distance range. She’ll give the Cox Plate, and even the Melbourne Cup, a major shake. She’s favourite for the George Main Stakes at Randwick this Saturday.


AVILIUS
7yo gelding
SuperCoach price: $450,000
Target races: Epsom Handicap (Round 1), Cox Plate (Round 4)
It’s been nearly 12 months since his last victory after a winless autumn campaign. The three-time Group 1 winner showed he can still be a contender after a fast-finishing fourth in his return in the Chelmsford Stakes. That win last year came in the George Main Stakes, which he’ll again contest this Saturday.

CON TE PARTIRO
7yo mare
SuperCoach price: $475,000
Target races: Epsom Handicap (Round 1)
A surprise Group 1 winner in the autumn, landing both the Coolmore Classic and the Queen Of The Turf in a purple patch of form. She ran an encouraging fifth in the Winx Stakes and will be a strong hope in the Epsom Handicap. A trip to the US for the Breeders’ Cup series is the goal for the US-bred mare, but the Cox Plate and Empire Rose Stakes are logical back-up targets if the coronavirus pandemic derails those ambitions.

TREKKING
6yo gelding
SuperCoach price: $475,000
Target races: The Everest (Round 3)
While Bivouac is favourite to secure Godolphin’s slot for The Everest, his stablemate shouldn’t be disregarded. He chased down Gytrash in the Group 1 The Goodwood in May, and ran third in The Everest last year.

FIERCE IMPACT
7yo horse
SuperCoach price: $425,000
Target races: Caulfield Stakes (Round 2), Cox Plate (Round 4)
Getting better with age and claimed his third Group 1 in the Makybe Diva Stakes last Saturday – all at 1600m and in Melbourne. He’s been allotted equal topweight for the Epsom Handicap but it likely to seek a Cox Plate berth via the Caulfield Stakes.


SANTA ANA LANE
8yo gelding
SuperCoach price: $475,000
Target races: The Everest (Round 3), VRC Sprint (Round 8)
Does the sprint champ have one more Group 1 win left in him? His last at the elite level was in the T.J. Smith Stakes back in April 2019, although he finished second in that race earlier this year and The Everest last spring. He produces his best form second-up but age is catching up with him.
 

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ROTHFIRE
Gelding
SuperCoach price: $200,000
Target races: The Everest (Round 3), Coolmore Stud Stakes (Round 5)
The Queensland galloper has now won seven of his eight starts after his sizzling return in the Run To The Rose. He’s the one to beat in the Golden Rose and then it’s on to The Everest.

FARNAN
Colt
SuperCoach price: $225,000
Target races: The Everest (Round 3), Coolmore Stud Stakes (Round 5)
The Golden Slipper winner performed below expectations in the Run To The Rose after he simply went too fast. He can bounce back from that flop to still make an impact this spring.

ANDERS
Colt
SuperCoach price: $200,000
Target races: Manikato Stakes (Round 4), Coolmore Stud Stakes (Round 5)
Returned like a bullet with a five-length win in the Rosebud, then left his rivals gasping again in the Group 3 San Domenico Stakes where he nearly broke the Rosehill 1100m track record. That sheer speed will make him hard to beat when he takes on the older horses in the Group 1 Moir Stakes over 1000m at the Valley. But can he stretch his brilliance out to 1200m?

NORTH PACIFIC
Colt
SuperCoach price: $200,000
Target races: Caulfield Guineas (Round 2), Cox Plate (Round 4)
Shot into Golden Rose calculations after a commanding five-length romp in the Up And Coming Stakes, and his third in the Run To The Rose was the perfect tune-up. The Caulfield Guineas and Cox Plate could also be on the radar.

MAMARAGAN
Colt
SuperCoach price: $225,000
Target races: The Everest (Round 3)
Finished third in the Golden Slipper at just his second start before a luckless placing in the Group 1 Sires Produce Stakes. Another colt being set for the Golden Rose but the Caulfield Guineas at 1600m looks ideal for him.

HUNGRY HEART
Filly
SuperCoach price: $200,000
Target races: Flight Stakes (Round 1)
Will attempt to emulate stablemate Funstar by winning the Group 1 Flight Stakes. A fast-finishing second to Dame Giselle in the Furious Stakes showed she’s on track.

INSTANT CELEBRITY
Filly
SuperCoach price: $150,000
Target races: Thousand Guineas (Round 2)
The South Australian filly was brilliant in her return at Morphettville to keep he unbeaten record intact, again winning from an impossible position with her sensational closing speed. Favourite for the Thousand Guineas.

KISUKANO
Filly
SuperCoach price: $200,000
Target races: Flight Stakes (Round 1)
She’s the only horse to have defeated Rothfire, and the Toowoomba filly’s three wins this campaign have exuded class. She won’t be out of her depth against the Sydney fillies.

NIGHT RAID
Filly
SuperCoach price: $100,000
Target races: Thousand Guineas (Round 2)
Successfully stepped up to city company in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes following a dominant Tatura maiden win. A repeat in the Thousand Guineas Prelude will see her challenging for favouritism for the main race.

FLYING AWARD
Colt
SuperCoach price: $175,000
Target races: Caulfield Guineas (Round 2)
There’s a bit of hype about him and there’s plenty of upside for the early Caulfield Guineas favourite after his eye-catching second in the McNeil Stakes.
 

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SURPRISE BABY
6yo gelding
SuperCoach price: $375,000
Target races: Melbourne Cup (Round 6)
Favourite for this year’s Melbourne Cup after running fifth in the race in last spring, beaten less than a length. He will take enormous steps forward after finishing second in the Feehan Stakes over 1600m.

RUSSIAN CAMELOT
4yo horse
SuperCoach price: $350,000
Target races: Cox Plate (Round 4), Melbourne Cup (Round 6)
There’s no ceiling to what the northern hemisphere-bred stayer can achieve. He was stiff not to win the Makybe Diva Stakes last Saturday and the bookies were quick to tighten the SA Derby winner’s price as Cox Plate favourite.

PROBABEEL
4yo mare
SuperCoach price: $375,000
Target races: Epsom Handicap (Round 1)
The Kiwi mare was too good for her rivals in the Group 3 Bill Ritchie Handicap on Saturday. In her past 10 starts she’s finished top two in all but one when she failed she failed to run out the Oaks trip. She is on the second line of betting for the Epsom Handicap behind Funstar, even though she had her measure again in their most recent encounter.

CLASSIQUE LEGEND
5yo gelding
SuperCoach price: $375,000
Target races: The Everest (Round 3)
Racing’s newest “grey flash” following his barnstorming win in The Shorts at Randwick on Saturday. He has to be a serious chance now for The Everest, where he ran sixth last year.

MUGATOO
6yo gelding
SuperCoach price: $325,000
Target races: The Metropolitan (Round 1)
The import may be six but he’s lightly raced and untapped. Having his second Australian campaign, he’s won six of eight races here, most recently the Group 3 Premier Cup and Newcastle Cup.

HAUT BRION HER
5yo mare
SuperCoach price: $275,000
Target races: The Everest (Round 3)
After she was nearly retired to stud, the mare added another Group 2 to her CV in her comeback last Saturday, and trainer Chris Waller has a slot in The Everest. She was a winner at Flemington last spring.

BEHEMOTH
5yo gelding
SuperCoach price: $350,000
Target races: Toorak Handicap (Round 2)
The giant gelding is now a two-time Group 1 winner after adding the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes to his Memsie Stakes triumph. The Toorak Handicap and Cantala Stakes are the logical next targets, but their could is the logical next target.

FITUESE
4yo mare
SuperCoach price: $225,000
Target races: Premiere Stakes (Round 1)
Trainer John Thompson will aim higher with his improving mare after she kicked off her spring campaign with an impressive win at Rosehill. She’ll tackle Group opposition next start and if she misses out on an Everest spot there are suitable mares races in Melbourne for her.

ORDEROFTHEGARTER
7yo horse
SuperCoach price: $250,000
Target races: Caulfield Cup (Round 3)
Trainer Danny O’Brien has The Lloyd Williams import has returned in excellent shape after a long time off the scene and secured a Caulfield Cup berth after winning the Naturalism Stakes. Now trained by Danny O’Brien, he was a talented galloper in Europe, finishing second at Royal Ascot behind Benbatl, who was runner-up to Winx in the 2018 Cox Plate.

NONCONFORMIST
4yo gelding
SuperCoach price: $250,000
Target races: Caulfield Cup (Round 3)
Won the Group 2 Alastair Clark Stakes over 2040m in the autumn as a three-year-old. Great return when third over 1400m and will be a threat when he races over further.

DIRTY WORK
4yo horse
SuperCoach price: $250,000
Target races: The Everest (Round 3)
Thrown in the deep end first-up against leading Everest contenders Nature Strip and Gytrash in the Concorde Stakes but showed he’s up to Group standard. He arguably should have finished closer to Classique Legend in The Shorts.
 
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#8
(y)
Working on module to help for horses' selection - But there isn't much to work with.
I am including the info coming from these articles, as for the moment it is my only source of "knowledge",
( also planning to include in the "VIP teams" data)

a few questions :
- How do you read the career stat ? : X:Y - A -B ?
- Is there any value to "process" the last 10 field ? (for ex for a Last 3 ? a "worst position" .... ) (also - what are the "s" and the "x")
- what is best third party (free) source of data it would be interesting to bring in ?
(https://www.punters.com.au/stats/ for example?)

With the "target" mention, I realise that a horse might be better in a venue than in another ... so mixing that with the round schedule, it would probably be a good approach ?

It is very early stage - still need to "clean" the data & the relationships (like - the VIP team don't match atm) but if you want to play with it , it is here : http://supercoach.luhuconsulting.com/racing/




1600729192622.png
 
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#9
(y)
Working on module to help for horses' selection - But there isn't much to work with.
I am including the info coming from these articles, as for the moment it is my only source of "knowledge",
( also planning to include in the "VIP teams" data)

a few questions :
- How do you read the career stat ? : X:Y - A -B ?
- Is there any value to "process" the last 10 field ? (for ex for a Last 3 ? a "worst position" .... ) (also - what are the "s" and the "x")
- what is best third party (free) source of data it would be interesting to bring in ?
(https://www.punters.com.au/stats/ for example?)

With the "target" mention, I realise that a horse might be better in a venue than in another ... so mixing that with the round schedule, it would probably be a good approach ?

It is very early stage - still need to "clean" the data & the relationships (like - the VIP team don't match atm) but if you want to play with it , it is here : http://supercoach.luhuconsulting.com/racing/




View attachment 21832
I think unless you are an experienced handicapper the best predictor you are going to find is an up-to-date market, so the easiest avenue would be to scrape odds from Betfair (they have a free API tool if you have an account) or a bookie or similar. Reasonable markets are availble now for the big races but for most races this won't become relevant until a couple of days before the race.

The most relevant factors for SC are odds to finish in each position (which can be extrapolated roughly from win odds and number of starters), points available (i.e., group 1, group 2, group 3 or listed/handicap) and ownership percentages.

To answer your questions though:

X: A-B-C is Number of starts: number of firsts-number of seconds-number of thirds

There isn't really any value in processing the last 10. The numbers are pretty meaningless on their own. A "1" in a maiden looks better than a "4" in a group 1 but is actually much worse.

The "s" is a spell, meaning a gap of two months between runs, where the horse was having a rest. I'm pretty sure the "x" means the same thing and is just a style difference between formguides, but maybe Rowsus can enlighten if there is a difference (I have a vague memory that my Poppa told me an "s" was a two-month spell and an "x" was a three-month spell but that doesn't seem right now that I think about it).

Other than Betfair or a good bookie, a good site for stats and form is racing.com. If you could get the rating for last five starts, or even just the current rating for each horse, that would have some value.
 
Last edited:

Rowsus

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#10
@nicohighscore
I'm not sure that previous form info will lead to stronger selections. There are more nuances to racing selection, and things are very relative. The guys that make the betting markets are reading those nuances for us, and then framing te markets accordingly.
While those markets aren't the be all and end all, they are are very good starting point. From those we can extrapolate a projected score for each runner, which is something I try and do, and publish around Wed or Thurs before the meeting.
They look something like this:

SCS2020 ARacing R7jock1.png

SCS2020 ARacing R7high1.png

SCS2020 ARacing R7val1.png
 

Rowsus

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#11
Those are some tables from Rnd 7 of the Autumn SC Racing.
The top table shows the projected top scoring Jockeys, and the points they are expected to score, race by race.
The 2nd table shows the horses with the highest projected scores.
The 3rd table shows the horses with the best points/dollar profile.

Unfortunately, there are no structured Leagues in SC Racing. Some Leagues have 1, 2 or 3 members, ours usually has 15-20.
When looking at only the Leagues with say 10 or more members, we are usually 1, 2 or 3rd in SC Racing.
We usually have most of our League in the top 1,000 to 1,500 players, and quite a number in the top 500.

I hope this might have helped, or given you some ideas to think about. The actual process of calculating say, the chances of a $16 chance finishing exactly 7th in a 14 horse race is actually quite complicated. The points are allocated all the way down to 10th. I have built a model for this, which while suitable for calculating the above tables, I admit has some flaws. Still, the tables have proved to be a remarkably helpful tool, and a strong lead as to why our League does so well.

Anything that you might be able to add, to help us do even better, would be greatly appreciated!
 
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#12
Thank you @stephen and @Rowsus - That is very helpful.

So, it looks like you already have the best optimisation system, don't you ?
Assuming that :
1/ odds give you a true picture of the expected chances ( I guess it is their job after all)
2/ You can convert this to an expected position (do you use only the win odd or do you mix with placed ?)
3/ you build your stable each round with an optimal point / $ .

I guess one discussion point could be : do you start with the full 2M$ budget, or do you just take all the horses wih the minimum $/point ? ( or go for a in between solution )


At the moment, I don't see what else can be added on top of that ...
 

Rowsus

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#13
SC Racing doesn't start until next Saturday 3/9/2020.

As usual we will have a League.
A reminder, we take this seriously, and don't want any ghostships. If you join, you are expected to do your best, and see it through!
We have a "no ghostships" policy at SCS, and if you ghostship you will be banned from all future SCS Leagues - AFL, BBL, all of them.

League Code - 586937

SC Racing Leagues are strange, in that there is no structure. You can have a 1 person League, or 127 person League.
It's more like Groups in AFL SC.
 

Rowsus

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#14
For those looking to dip their toe in this week, here is a quick outline of the horses I believe to be over the odds this week:

Syd R2 - 7 Djukon $13/$3.60 - 3rd up over 2400m. Record 3rd up and beyond 3-2-1-0. Record 2200m and beyond 3-2-1-0.
Crushed right into $6.50/$2.80. An $0.08 deduction reduced the place collect to $3.21 (y)

Syd R7 - 2 King's Legacy $17/$3.40 - 2nd up over 1400m Record 2nd up 2-2-0-0, Record 2nd up and beyond 4-3-0-0. Record in races longer than 1200m 2-2-0-0.
Ran home nicely into 3rd.(y)

Syd R8 - 3 Positive Peace $15/$4.40 - 2nd up over 1400m. Career record 19-8-4-0. Remove all 1st up runs, and all heavy track runs, and her record is 9-6-3-0!!!
Beaten a lip in 4th place. Desperately unlucky, should have run a clear 2nd!:cry:

Others in Syd overs R6 - 2 Niccanova $16/$4.60 and R9 - 4 Trevelyan $46/$9.00
Niccanova 5th, <1L from 3rd. Trevelyan never looked a hope.


And some REAL roughies in Melbourne

In R8, No.1 Gailo Chop and 3 Trump For Fools are both currently listed at $101/$16.
There is no pace in the race, other than these 2 horses, who should settle 1st and 2nd. If they are allowed to run cheap sectionals early on, they will be very hard to run past, especially if the track is favouring leaders, which it quite often is at Caulfield!

They ran 4th and 5th, which is a good effort roughies. The First 4 paid $455(y) with the $1.50 fave winning, and the 2nd and 3rd favs running 2nd and 3rd!!!!

In R9, No.3 Furrion $41/$11.00 is unbeaten from 3 starts at the distance (1700m) is 3-1-2-0 at Caulfield, Has a career 14-7-2-1 record, and has started shorter odds in better races than this. He is 4-3-1-0 on slow tracks, and rain is predicted between now and then. Just definitely seems overs!
Backed into as short as $17 at one stage, before easing to $31. Didn't do enough. Needs longer.
 
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St Kilda
#15
Thank you @stephen and @Rowsus - That is very helpful.

So, it looks like you already have the best optimisation system, don't you ?
Assuming that :
1/ odds give you a true picture of the expected chances ( I guess it is their job after all)
2/ You can convert this to an expected position (do you use only the win odd or do you mix with placed ?)
3/ you build your stable each round with an optimal point / $ .

I guess one discussion point could be : do you start with the full 2M$ budget, or do you just take all the horses wih the minimum $/point ? ( or go for a in between solution )


At the moment, I don't see what else can be added on top of that ...
Because there are unlimited trades it is essentially DFS and so IMO that makes ownership percentages more relevant. I'm not sure if ownership percentages shown after rd2 take account of trades made that round. Does anyone know/remember?

If not, I'm not sure there's anything major that could be added. If yes, then an ownership update alongside a market update about an hour before lockout would be very useful.
 
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Essendon
#19
I'm keen...

Things I like when punting is usually:
Distance
Track
Track/Distance
Track Condition (Good, Soft, Heavy)

But in saying that there are other variables on the above, where a horse may start it's prep at 1200 -1400, but be looking for longer 1800+, so results at the shorter distance could be out because of this?!
Not sure if that helps at all @nicohighscore ??
Odds probably the closest form of horse performance, but not the be-all...
 
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Essendon
#20
For those looking to dip their toe in this week, here is a quick outline of the horses I believe to be over the odds this week:

Syd R2 - 7 Djukon $13/$3.60 - 3rd up over 2400m. Record 3rd up and beyond 3-2-1-0. Record 2200m and beyond 3-2-1-0.

Syd R7 - 2 King's Legacy $17/$3.40 - 2nd up over 1400m Record 2nd up 2-2-0-0, Record 2nd up and beyond 4-3-0-0. Record in races longer than 1200m 2-2-0-0.

Syd R8 - 3 Positive Peace $15/$4.40 - 2nd up over 1400m. Career record 19-8-4-0. Remove all 1st up runs, and all heavy track runs, and her record is 9-6-3-0!!!

Others in Syd overs R6 - 2 Niccanova $16/$4.60 and R9 - 4 Trevelyan $46/$9.00

And some REAL roughies in Melbourne

In R8, No.1 Gailo Chop and 3 Trump For Fools are both currently listed at $101/$16.
There is no pace in the race, other than these 2 horses, who should settle 1st and 2nd. If they are allowed to run cheap sectionals early on, they will be very hard to run past, especially if the track is favouring leaders, which it quite often is at Caulfield!


In R9, No.3 Furrion $41/$11.00 is unbeaten from 3 starts at the distance (1700m) is 3-1-2-0 at Caulfield, Has a career 14-7-2-1 record, and has started shorter odds in better races than this. He is 4-3-1-0 on slow tracks, and rain is predicted between now and then. Just definitely seems overs!
Will you also be punting on these? Or a reference point more for SC?
 
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