Competitions 2020: SuperCoach Racing Classic - Rnd 4 early tables up.

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What are your hindsight lessons from round 3?

For me, keeping in mind, I'm one that does not follow horses at all, I am picking them using the charts kindly supplied.

I had two things I was tossing up.
1) Taking only 1 in two G1's and "hoping for a win", or 3 in one race, and increasing my chances. I took the 3 - this meant I missed out on VE, but would I have taken it? I don't know.

2) I thought Garner wasnt going to place after watching a Fabergino race on YT during the week. At the end because the majority had Garner I went that way, allowing me to enter Chica Fuerte, which I wasn't going to, and I would've had Starelle in my team and perhaps a lower priced Star Eden.
So, I push Fabergino out, brought Garner and Chica Fuerte in. Pushed Starelle to Emergency and dropped Star of Eden completely.

After round 3 even with hidsight I am still none the wiser about horse racing, and clearly whatever choices I made last minute were just that, choices I had made last minute. Although next time I may take at least a horse in all G1's, as I suppose it gives greater opportunity for more wins,which means more points.

Here's to round 4 😀
 
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Hawthorn
What are your hindsight lessons from round 3?

For me, keeping in mind, I'm one that does not follow horses at all, I am picking them using the charts kindly supplied.

I had two things I was tossing up.
1) Taking only 1 in two G1's and "hoping for a win", or 3 in one race, and increasing my chances. I took the 3 - this meant I missed out on VE, but would I have taken it? I don't know.

2) I thought Garner wasnt going to place after watching a Fabergino race on YT during the week. At the end because the majority had Garner I went that way, allowing me to enter Chica Fuerte, which I wasn't going to, and I would've had Starelle in my team and perhaps a lower priced Star Eden.
So, I push Fabergino out, brought Garner and Chica Fuerte in. Pushed Starelle to Emergency and dropped Star of Eden completely.

After round 3 even with hidsight I am still none the wiser about horse racing, and clearly whatever choices I made last minute were just that, choices I had made last minute. Although next time I may take at least a horse in all G1's, as I suppose it gives greater opportunity for more wins,which means more points.

Here's to round 4 😀
My main lesson is that a lot of favourites are winning this year, and that picking against them is not the way to go. Seems to be a higher strike rate than usual for favourites getting up.
 
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My main lesson is that a lot of favourites are winning this year, and that picking against them is not the way to go. Seems to be a higher strike rate than usual for favourites getting up.
My strategy is picking favs alongside the charts.

If there if some more accurate data available on the previous rounds and meetings I think it'd be interesting to see it.

According to Friday's paper the favourite horses at Caulfield across 10 races were:

Favorite - 10:2.3.2
2nd Fav - 10:5.2.0
3rd Fav - 10:0.0.0 <- wow, not one even placed

A close race, but looking back 2nd Fav seemed to be the one to beat.
 

Rowsus

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It's sort of a good news/bad news week, this week.

Good news - the Jockeys have a DGW, as we are playing at MV Fri/Sat.
Bad news - that means your Sat. selections lock out on Fri, so you have to wear any scratchings.

Good news - there are 2 Gp1's in the Round.
Bad news - just like last week, the main chances will all be pretty expensive!

Good news - there is 4 Gp2's in the Round
More good news - 2 of them are 3yo races!
Further good news - there is a Gp3 3yo race.
 

Rowsus

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Group 1 races main players:
Friday night
- Manikato Stakes
$5 - Pippie ($375,000)
$6 - Dirty Work ($275,000) , Trekking ($475,000)
$7 - Hey Doc ($425,000)
$8 - Brooklyn Hustle ($200,000) , Diamond Effort ($325,000)
$9 - Bella Vella ($325,000)

Saturday - Cox Plate
$3.70 - Russian Camelot ($375,000)
$4.60 - Arcadia Queen ($450,000)
$6 - Armory ($425,000)
$9 - Sir Dragonet ($425,000)
$11 - Probabeel ($425,000)
 

Rowsus

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Non - 3yo Gp2 Races (The rest are all Saturday races)
Crystal Mile
$3.60 - Imaging ($375,000)
$4.50 - Olmedo ($???,000)
$6 - Age Of Chivalry ($300,000) , Kings Will Dream ($400,000)
$8 - Homesman ($375,000)
$9 - Chief Ironside ($325,000)

Moonee Valley Cup
$4.50 - Selino ($???,000) - there is a doubt it makes the final field, unless the committee use their discretion.
$5.50 - Hush Writer ($300,000)
$6 - Nickajack Cave ($400,000) , Shared Ambition ($325,000)
$9 - Lord Belvedere ($275,000) , Oceanex ($325,000)
 

Rowsus

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3yo Group Races
Gp2 Vase

$2.90 - Young Werther ($125,000)
$6 - Cherry Tortoni ($175,000)
$7 - Embolism ($???,000) , Khoekhoe ($175,000)
$8 - Personal ($175,000)

Gp2 Fillies Classic
$2.60 - Odeum ($175,000) - probably not running!
$2.90 - Ecumenical ($175,000)
$4.80 - Thermosphere ($225,000)
$7 - Incredulous Dream ($125,000)
$8 - Miss Inbetween ($125,000)

Gp3 Red Anchor Stakes (no market to work from, my best guesses)
Muntaseera ($175,000)
Bella Nipotina ($200,000)
Destination ($???,000)
Valaquenta ($125,000)
Our Playboy ($200,000)
 
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HI Rowsus,
I have tried to do a feed back loop on the expected score, lookinh at the jockeys.

Does the below seem correct to you ?
Should that tell us something about jockey's "form" ?


The amount is the sum of the spread between the expected and the real score for all the rides of the day
Did better than expected :
1603166674673.png

details for MZ :
1603166702419.png

or Jason Collett:

1603166748258.png

on the other side :

1603166783264.png


William Pike :
1603166808244.png


JMD :
1603166825783.png
 
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GWS Giants
What are your hindsight lessons from round 3?

For me, keeping in mind, I'm one that does not follow horses at all, I am picking them using the charts kindly supplied.

I had two things I was tossing up.
1) Taking only 1 in two G1's and "hoping for a win", or 3 in one race, and increasing my chances. I took the 3 - this meant I missed out on VE, but would I have taken it? I don't know.

2) I thought Garner wasnt going to place after watching a Fabergino race on YT during the week. At the end because the majority had Garner I went that way, allowing me to enter Chica Fuerte, which I wasn't going to, and I would've had Starelle in my team and perhaps a lower priced Star Eden.
So, I push Fabergino out, brought Garner and Chica Fuerte in. Pushed Starelle to Emergency and dropped Star of Eden completely.

After round 3 even with hidsight I am still none the wiser about horse racing, and clearly whatever choices I made last minute were just that, choices I had made last minute. Although next time I may take at least a horse in all G1's, as I suppose it gives greater opportunity for more wins,which means more points.

Here's to round 4 😀
The tactic of captaining a group 2 "certainty" (Alfa O) over a group 1 horse that I was 50/50 on(Classique) is usually good but ranked 5000 probably not very smart.
 
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