I don't think Walsh will drop >100k by R15. Brice Mitchell has him losing 60k if scores 105's, if he goes 120's then it'll be a fair bit less (depends on what you paid for him I spose)
The rookie I rue missing is Williams, had him pegged as a good scorer off the backline but being named as a sub on his bubble game as well as multiple injuries meant I had to pass, 220k right there. Could add Ryan and Ratagolea for a combined 400k too. Guess you can't have all of them.
On Mitchell's predictions Walsh will be 521, against a starting price of 611. After 3 tons to open his year he went to 612, and after a 4th he was 615.
I can't remember when I bought him, but either at 612 or 615, and was deliberately avoiding "cut priced premos" to get someone who I expected to put out consistent tons, with a floor of 95.
You're probably right that he won't get to 520, but he could also conceivably throw another 90, given his last 3 weeks
But you're right, no one can get them all right, and we all miss heaps (I also missed Williams).