2023 SC Super Early Planning Thread

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#61
A reference for me for 2023:

Never again: Cripps, Heeney, Butters, Ridley, Whitfield, Short, Crisp.

Locks: Stewart, Sinclair, Steele. Maybe Oliver and Touk.
Never say never again... :ROFLMAO:

Butters is a 21yo who started at $443k and has averaged 92, missing two games - could finish the season closer to 95 if he plays like this week.

With some more meat on him it's not inconceivable he goes 110+ as a mid one year once he's 25...
 
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#62
Wait what do you mean

Cripps dropped slightly in form but isnt what he was last year

Short and Crisp are similar in their scoring. U pay for consistency of games with them, not their scoring
And Heeney hes never been good past the firdt half of the season?
A lot of these might have some non-logical reasoning.

Re. Cripps…think this season is one out of the box. Hard to know what body will present itself for the year. Has picked up in the past 2 weeks, was looking dire in the midpart of the season. Will be priced at 110 - no way.

Short - if there is a ? regarding role, don’t want to take the risk as a starting pick.

Heeney - brought him in around R5, got rid of him R12 after English looked like a must have. Has obviously done well post bye. This is more a personal peeve - whenever he is in my side (this year and previous years) he has been underwhelming. He’ll be priced at 100 next year so for me no need to consider starting imo.
 
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#63
A reference for me for 2023:

Never again: Cripps, Heeney, Butters, Ridley, Whitfield, Short, Crisp.

Locks: Stewart, Sinclair, Steele. Maybe Oliver and Touk.
Really odd list to be honest.

Cripps is the 12th highest scoring MID this year. Crisp is the 9th defender. Short is the 7th defender. Heeney is 6th of the forwards and 3rd of those who started as forwards.

Butters is 21, albeit I get it.

Ridley I feel you and the Redman breakout has at least killed me even thinking about it again.

Whitfield is going to be so absurdly cheap next year that he's absolutely going to be in play and I hate all of it. If they get a decent coach he's a 100 type guy. To be honest though given how dreadful McVeigh has been I'm starting to think their issues start higher than the coach, there's clearly some directives going on that are handcuffing the coach because McVeigh literally coaching himself out of any consideration for a job for life has to come with some pretty serious orders from above, he just can't be that stupid, can he?

Can't argue the locks list but I think you'll really struggle to finish a team with all those names. 5 guys all at 112+ is an awful lot.
 
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#64
My early standouts for the list of guys who "with a good preseason" will be in the mix:
By club:

Adelaide

Laird - I think he's going to end up too expensive but I don't think he's doing anything unsustainable right now.
Dawson - He's done this with no preseason at a new club, a strong preseason would make it hard to resist, lot of tags.
Berry - Has to keep FWD and I'd say that's unlikely but he's showing an awful lot.
Rachele - Want to see a huge preseason and midfield role but the talent is there.

Brisbane

Neale - Will watch closely but think he's less likely than likely right now for me.
Clug - Huge finish to the season, will very strongly consider next year.
Coleman - Will consider but unlikely while Rich/Zorko are still floating around.
Zorko - He's too cheap to ignore but needs a beyond flawless preseason.
Bailey - Will always watch, feels like there's a breakout but I'll have given up by the time it comes...
Rayner - Just a watch but has shown flashes this year.

Carlton

Doch/Cripps/Walsh - All options
Curnow/McKay - Will consider, both in that KPF breakout range right now and both stars.
Z. Williams - Going to be very cheap if gets a discount. Have to at least consider given his history.

Collingwood

Grundy - Not at the Pies though I don't think. Needs to be one out.
Crisp - Depends on position but if DEF again, he's an option although his finish has been poor.
Daicos - Very high on my list. Don't see any reason he can't push to the 105 range, he's got pure fantasy sloot skills and uses the ball at an elite level. He's a better fantasy prospect than Walsh, imo, and has genuine Ablett Jr ceiling type vibes, yes I went there.
Cameron - Probably not but will watch for movements, will be ruck only I imagine but he's a really strong fantasy scorer.
De Goey - Always. He's been "crap" this year and averaging 85, too much talent.

Essendon

Redman - The slow start has the "undervalued" argument in there, albeit he blew it out a bit with this anomaly and monster this week.
Merrett - Probably wont start, always seems to have a few mares early and be cheap, largely because CD still hate him.
Martin - If he keeps FWD, I'll watch closely, has a lot of natural fantasy tendencies.
Draper - There's a beast in there.
Stringer - Finishing strong again, needs an absolutely perfect preseason but he can be a monster.

Freo

Brayshaw - Will give the Brownlow a real shot which means CD might have to start giving him some credit, in their defense I kind of agree that he's a low impact accumulator who doesn't really hurt but all those attributes are also helpful for avoiding too much attention. Has also worked through the tag issues somewhat this year. Has plenty of 120+ potential.
Darcy - Depends on Jackson and needs a perfect preseason.
Brodie - Watch list, there's a lot of JPK about him.
Young - Very high on the list but Ryan takes too many kickouts right now.

GCS

Touk - Strong watch. His start the last two years intrigues me as an upgrade target rather than starter but his best is absurd.
Witts - Has to be but I don't think I can.
Anderson - Think this is a DT only one for me, butchers it far too much.

Geelong

Stewart - Absurdly expensive but he's also really good. Feel the best paying for him of the top priced defenders though.

GWS

Jelly - Always but would need a really strong statement from the coach he plays in position and not out of position as he has under Cameron and McVeigh.
Coniglio - Has to keep FWD.
Green - He's a future beast.
Cumming - Watch only for now but rate him.
Taranto - Has to keep FWD and go to the right club, so not Richmond.
Preuss - Perfect preseason needed but he's a beastly scorer.
Himmel - So hard, needs a very strong commitment from coach because he's a genuinely awful forward/ruck, barely AFL level but he's a complete natural down back and looks potentially elite. Keeping FWD also vital.
Whitfield - Too cheap to ignore.
Greene - Too cheap to ignore but would prefer a good coach who commits to him as their #1 midfielder. Still blows my mind he's not, was the easiest and obvious move for McVeigh. Literally went to a GF with him in that role a couple of years ago. Watching them hold him as the deepest forward while the team has 20 I50 late in the 3rd quarter every week is baffling.
Hopper - Going to be really cheap unless he finishes huge.

are there so many...

Haw

Sicily - Has to be but don't like the price...
Titch - Depends where he is.
Moore - Strong watch.

Mel

Gawn - If Jackson goes he's just about a lock.
Oliver - Hard to resist.
Brayshaw - If back to mid gluttony he's a strong option.
Trac - Always but reckon he might have kind of found his range.

Nth

LDU - Strong watch.
Hall - Can't trust but a perfect preseason has to be considered.

PA

Rozee - Even if MID only I'll consider, FWD he's just about a lock.
Butters - Harder sell but considering.

Rich

Short - Depends on role.

StK

Marshall - Locked if FWD, locked if Ryder gone.
Steele - Strong option.
Sinclair - Hard to pay that price, historically an unsustainable level.

Syd

Warner - Very strong watch.
Heeney - No value this time but still a gun.
Mills - Gun also.

WB

Bont/Smith/Dunkley/Libba - If any keep FWD, then hard to resist.
English - Durability is a nightmare but scoring is legit and I think he can improve again.
Dale - Strong watch, fairly priced for mine so probably more upgrade target.

WCE

Yeo - Flawless or better needed.
Barrass - Depends what they do with Gov.
NicNat - Beyond flawless also needed.
 
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#65
My early standouts for the list of guys who "with a good preseason" will be in the mix:
By club:

Adelaide

Laird - I think he's going to end up too expensive but I don't think he's doing anything unsustainable right now.
Dawson - He's done this with no preseason at a new club, a strong preseason would make it hard to resist, lot of tags.
Berry - Has to keep FWD and I'd say that's unlikely but he's showing an awful lot.
Rachele - Want to see a huge preseason and midfield role but the talent is there.

Brisbane

Neale - Will watch closely but think he's less likely than likely right now for me.
Clug - Huge finish to the season, will very strongly consider next year.
Coleman - Will consider but unlikely while Rich/Zorko are still floating around.
Zorko - He's too cheap to ignore but needs a beyond flawless preseason.
Bailey - Will always watch, feels like there's a breakout but I'll have given up by the time it comes...
Rayner - Just a watch but has shown flashes this year.

Carlton

Doch/Cripps/Walsh - All options
Curnow/McKay - Will consider, both in that KPF breakout range right now and both stars.
Z. Williams - Going to be very cheap if gets a discount. Have to at least consider given his history.

Collingwood

Grundy - Not at the Pies though I don't think. Needs to be one out.
Crisp - Depends on position but if DEF again, he's an option although his finish has been poor.
Daicos - Very high on my list. Don't see any reason he can't push to the 105 range, he's got pure fantasy sloot skills and uses the ball at an elite level. He's a better fantasy prospect than Walsh, imo, and has genuine Ablett Jr ceiling type vibes, yes I went there.
Cameron - Probably not but will watch for movements, will be ruck only I imagine but he's a really strong fantasy scorer.
De Goey - Always. He's been "crap" this year and averaging 85, too much talent.

Essendon

Redman - The slow start has the "undervalued" argument in there, albeit he blew it out a bit with this anomaly and monster this week.
Merrett - Probably wont start, always seems to have a few mares early and be cheap, largely because CD still hate him.
Martin - If he keeps FWD, I'll watch closely, has a lot of natural fantasy tendencies.
Draper - There's a beast in there.
Stringer - Finishing strong again, needs an absolutely perfect preseason but he can be a monster.

Freo

Brayshaw - Will give the Brownlow a real shot which means CD might have to start giving him some credit, in their defense I kind of agree that he's a low impact accumulator who doesn't really hurt but all those attributes are also helpful for avoiding too much attention. Has also worked through the tag issues somewhat this year. Has plenty of 120+ potential.
Darcy - Depends on Jackson and needs a perfect preseason.
Brodie - Watch list, there's a lot of JPK about him.
Young - Very high on the list but Ryan takes too many kickouts right now.

GCS

Touk - Strong watch. His start the last two years intrigues me as an upgrade target rather than starter but his best is absurd.
Witts - Has to be but I don't think I can.
Anderson - Think this is a DT only one for me, butchers it far too much.

Geelong

Stewart - Absurdly expensive but he's also really good. Feel the best paying for him of the top priced defenders though.

GWS

Jelly - Always but would need a really strong statement from the coach he plays in position and not out of position as he has under Cameron and McVeigh.
Coniglio - Has to keep FWD.
Green - He's a future beast.
Cumming - Watch only for now but rate him.
Taranto - Has to keep FWD and go to the right club, so not Richmond.
Preuss - Perfect preseason needed but he's a beastly scorer.
Himmel - So hard, needs a very strong commitment from coach because he's a genuinely awful forward/ruck, barely AFL level but he's a complete natural down back and looks potentially elite. Keeping FWD also vital.
Whitfield - Too cheap to ignore.
Greene - Too cheap to ignore but would prefer a good coach who commits to him as their #1 midfielder. Still blows my mind he's not, was the easiest and obvious move for McVeigh. Literally went to a GF with him in that role a couple of years ago. Watching them hold him as the deepest forward while the team has 20 I50 late in the 3rd quarter every week is baffling.
Hopper - Going to be really cheap unless he finishes huge.

WTF are there so many...

Haw

Sicily - Has to be but don't like the price...
Titch - Depends where he is.
Moore - Strong watch.

Mel

Gawn - If Jackson goes he's just about a lock.
Oliver - Hard to resist.
Brayshaw - If back to mid gluttony he's a strong option.
Trac - Always but reckon he might have kind of found his range.

Nth

LDU - Strong watch.
Hall - Can't trust but a perfect preseason has to be considered.

PA

Rozee - Even if MID only I'll consider, FWD he's just about a lock.
Butters - Harder sell but considering.

Rich

Short - Depends on role.

StK

Marshall - Locked if FWD, locked if Ryder gone.
Steele - Strong option.
Sinclair - Hard to pay that price, historically an unsustainable level.

Syd

Warner - Very strong watch.
Heeney - No value this time but still a gun.
Mills - Gun also.

WB

Bont/Smith/Dunkley/Libba - If any keep FWD, then hard to resist.
English - Durability is a nightmare but scoring is legit and I think he can improve again.
Dale - Strong watch, fairly priced for mine so probably more upgrade target.

WCE

Yeo - Flawless or better needed.
Barrass - Depends what they do with Gov.
NicNat - Beyond flawless also needed.
That‘s an interesting run-through and I found myself agreeing with most of your ratings.
One surprise was that Short was the only Tiger you mentioned.. I‘m keen on Shai Bolton, how do you rate him?
 
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#66
Probably look something like this

D: Dawson, Stewart, Redman + midpricers/rooks
M: Laird, Steele, Miller, x, Hopper + rooks
R: Gawn, x.
F: Dunkley, Bont/Rozee/Marshall* (if retatined)

Def: Probably need to pay up here. Dawson gets a better preseason and probably moves to wing more, Stew is a bit injury prone but generally plays 20 games and Redman has a wild ceiling.

Mid: Its Lairds midfield now. Crouch should be gone, Keays I think is a forward now and the kids will support him. Is learning to become more damaging. I'll pay 700 for a perma VC/C. Steele should be slightly underpriced and Miller just seems solid, happy to go with just Laird and Steele though. Macrae is a bit puzzling, really slowed down. Starts seasons well and wont be too expensive so still considering. Lots of miles in the legs now. Its probably too early for Berry but he will be 2nd in line for CBAs and probably average 10 tackles a game which is something we've never seen.

Pretty big on Hopper. Playing AFL fantasy (SC is closer to it now), none of them pick the most expensive mids and go with rooks/midpricers as they wait for the big mids to come down. Hopper will get a 10% discount, had multiple knee surgerys this year. Should be priced mid-low 300s.

Rucks: Trade week will probably determine this - Cameron, Grundy, Meek, Gawn, Jackson, Marshall (Ryder). Gawn should be 600ish and no Jackson, but I wouldnt be surprised if they ask for Meek or he gets a new partner. Doubt they want him solo rucking at 31. English cops too many knocks.

Fwd: Rozee's workrate and skill is art. Been a pleasure having him in Fantasy, just didnt pull trigger in SC. I'll happily pick Dunkley again as he starts seasons well. Treloar/Libba are getting older so might see slightly reduced mid time but might still feel great. Bont is a 130 guy when fully fit, just played through shoulder injuries this and last year. I'll pay 630 for him. Moore is interesting but I can see Mitchell taking his CBAs away every now and then, Moore has stated he is a forward and a midfielder. Himmelberg needs strong conviction he'll be a defender from new coach, if so will pick. Cogs upgrade target.
 
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#67
That‘s an interesting run-through and I found myself agreeing with most of your ratings.
One surprise was that Short was the only Tiger you mentioned.. I‘m keen on Shai Bolton, how do you rate him?
He's a maybe, just don't like him as he's such a complete of a human but his finish to the season is very noteworthy. So inconsistent though and I don't love his role, can he sustain a 105+ average, I'm not sure and I think that's got to be the minimum you aim for from premium priced starting picks with the position changes.

Realistically I don't think I will really try and pick breakouts in the forwards, there will be 3 or 4 mids that get it throughout so think it's the position to hunt the value hard, not sure who it is just yet but I'll be looking for that for sure, as I said above, if I think someone can be 105+ and they're cheaper than that then I'll definitely watch them closely. Not sure if the last two years are an anomaly or the new trend where there is a ton of value and taking it is very important but of course the problem is that taking value inherently increases risk, for me paying more for Ridley and Whitfield over Sicily was basically the end of my season, getting Butters wrong and Touk/Macrae the wrong way around was the finishing blow. Also using 11 trades on rucks probably didn't help :LOL:
 
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#68
2021 gave us pretty 'obvious' value forwards like Ziebell, Impey and Daniher
2022 had even more options (maybe not as many were super obvious): Brodie, Cogs, Curnow, Gresham through to the bye, Xerri before he got injured.

People were already calling out a lot of those names by this time in the season prior. Is it just me or do there not seem to be as many obvious $200-300k similar picks appearing for 2023?
 

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#69
2021 gave us pretty 'obvious' value forwards like Ziebell, Impey and Daniher
2022 had even more options (maybe not as many were super obvious): Brodie, Cogs, Curnow, Gresham through to the bye, Xerri before he got injured.

People were already calling out a lot of those names by this time in the season prior. Is it just me or do there not seem to be as many obvious $200-300k similar picks appearing for 2023?
It’s not just you.

Taryn Thomas perhaps?

Possibly Michael Hurley and also Will Phillips.

That’s all I can think of at this stage.
 
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#70
2021 gave us pretty 'obvious' value forwards like Ziebell, Impey and Daniher
2022 had even more options (maybe not as many were super obvious): Brodie, Cogs, Curnow, Gresham through to the bye, Xerri before he got injured.

People were already calling out a lot of those names by this time in the season prior. Is it just me or do there not seem to be as many obvious $200-300k similar picks appearing for 2023?
Oscar Allen , GC King , Fyfe , Hopper , Coffield , Lycett (maybe not as cheap) , Cunnington (won't be in that price bracket though) , Thomas

More than enough to build a core team around
 
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#71
He's a maybe, just don't like him as he's such a complete of a human but his finish to the season is very noteworthy. So inconsistent though and I don't love his role, can he sustain a 105+ average, I'm not sure and I think that's got to be the minimum you aim for from premium priced starting picks with the position changes.

Realistically I don't think I will really try and pick breakouts in the forwards, there will be 3 or 4 mids that get it throughout so think it's the position to hunt the value hard, not sure who it is just yet but I'll be looking for that for sure, as I said above, if I think someone can be 105+ and they're cheaper than that then I'll definitely watch them closely. Not sure if the last two years are an anomaly or the new trend where there is a ton of value and taking it is very important but of course the problem is that taking value inherently increases risk, for me paying more for Ridley and Whitfield over Sicily was basically the end of my season, getting Butters wrong and Touk/Macrae the wrong way around was the finishing blow. Also using 11 trades on rucks probably didn't help :LOL:
Thanks for providing some food for thought @wogitalia.
Its helpful to get another angle I think, because once I get it in my head to pick a given player, the idea just itches & becomes reality.
Bolton has such sublime abilities (imo) that I put him in the Cyril Rioli class - and that's as good as it gets for me.
But your point on consistency - inconsistency is sobering - I couldn't resist picking Cyril either & it didnt work out as well as I expected.

Things also went haywire with my rucks this year.
I still have Darcy, Goldy, Teakle, English, D. Cameron & Blicavs, but on the way I have chewed thru Gawn, Grundy, J. Hayes, S. Hayes, Dixon, Marshall, Preuss & Xerri.
 

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#75
It’s not just you.

Taryn Thomas perhaps?

Possibly Michael Hurley and also Will Phillips.

That’s all I can think of at this stage.
Thomas might be one of the better bets, hopefully gets a clean run at it with a strong preseason.

Hurley surely just about calls it at the end of this year? Gets back in for a send off game maybe? If he does go on next year, have to be some fitness and scoring concerns even at the price.

Was talking to a close relation of Will Phillips just last weekend, he’s still in quite a bad way unfortunately which is concerning. Still spending majority of his time sleeping and in bed, battles to walk laps of the oval. Fingers crossed, because his underage footy as a bottom aged inside in the same side as Rowell and Anderson was seriously good.
 
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#76
There will always be value, but how brave are you? And how cheap is "value"?

Might have to wait until post trade period though.

Will Dusty be value? Thomas will be cheap. Hopper and Whitfield and Toby Greene.

So much will depend on role changes and headspace changes, that it's hard to see at this point.
 
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#77
I'm sure I haven't been alone this year in having maybe 12+ different playing rucks across the season (probably a sign I'm doing it wrong huh), but gee it would be nice to avoid all that nonsense in 2023 :p
I started the season with Witts and still did 8 ruck trades for the season, probably could've held on a few of them but was right up there in the rankings in the first half and wanted to try and maintain that. Might start Witts again next season, at least he's been reliable.
 
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#78
There will always be value, but how brave are you? And how cheap is "value"?

Might have to wait until post trade period though.

Will Dusty be value? Thomas will be cheap. Hopper and Whitfield and Toby Greene.

So much will depend on role changes and headspace changes, that it's hard to see at this point.
Gotta say I don't think I'd want to start any of those guys, just too much risk and or inconsistency.
 
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#79
@wogitalia

Really like your list, 1 Sydney guy I am surprised you didn't mention is Errol Gulden.

If he maintains fwd status (not sure on his breakdown), I am going to be tempted by him. Averaging 107.3 over the last 3 rounds, such a talented young player.
 
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#80
Locks
Def:
Dawson, Stewart, Sinclair/Sicily
Mid: Clarry, Touk, Laird, Walsh, Brayshaw/Steele
Ruck: Gawn (if no Jackson)
Fwd: Wait for dual position. Will look for Value
Watch list:
Taranto, Noah Anderson, LDU, Gulden, Rozee/Butters, Tom Green (depending on who gets squeezed out of gws midfield), Whitfield/Short (role dependent)
Marshall if no Ryder a lock
 
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