2023 SC Super Early Planning Thread

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#81
Start with Oliver, Walsh, Steele as the base of play 22 games at high ppg with very few bad games.
Brayshaw, Merrett, Miller hopefully get in after slow / bad games
Neale / Macrae, father time stops for no one. Neale a maybe, but would rather someone < 30 years old

Even though I have Fyfe on the never again list, if he is priced at 67 ppg (or lower), he is a non-selection. You have to take him.

Probably never fantasy relevant but Draper is really developing well. Starting to take contested marks / kick goals
 
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#82
There will always be value, but how brave are you? And how cheap is "value"?

Might have to wait until post trade period though.

Will Dusty be value? Thomas will be cheap. Hopper and Whitfield and Toby Greene.

So much will depend on role changes and headspace changes, that it's hard to see at this point.
Theres always underpriced premiums, Im talking the 200-250K types that weve essentially built our teams around the last couple seasons, just dont think they are going to be there in 2023, lot more Charlie Constable's than Will Brodie candidates IMHO.
 
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#83
Theres always underpriced premiums, Im talking the 200-250K types that weve essentially built our teams around the last couple seasons, just dont think they are going to be there in 2023, lot more Charlie Constable's than Will Brodie candidates IMHO.
"We" never knew that Will Brodie was more Will Brodie than Charlie Constable until he was (and I refused to accept it all year, hence my rubbish ranking

Coniglio had that history of scoring, but at this stage last year would anyone have locked in Brodie vs Caldwell or whoever?

There will be players that go from mid pricers to locks, but who they are is the great challenge, and knowing who is the risk worth taking either at 229k or 350k is what separates the winners from the also-rans

(Says someone who started a couple of the "wrong" mid pricers this year, and paid the price)
 
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#84
Laird - Score build and gamestyle looks sustainable. Happy to pay this much to lock away a VC/C every week
Worrell - slotted seamlessly into Doedee's interceptor role on the weekend. Big watch over the next couple of weeks.
S Berry - Tackle numbers ridiculously unsustainable. Only relevant if keeps DPP, unlikely
Milera - Can he go back to the lucrative HBF role from earlier in his career?
Schoenberg/Soligo - Requires Crouch out the door and one of Keays/Laird banished from the midfield
Rachele - Cheap enough, similar to above. Needs a solid preseason and talk of midfield time.
Thilthorpe - Starting to click. Only so long ROB can be your number 1 ruck for

Neale - Upgrade target, think theres better flawless options in the uber premo range
McCluggage - Seems to tease at some stage every year. Will he be a 105 guy for life or can he take that next step
Coleman - Requires Zorko/Rich to move on but underpriced for what he can do in the role
Rayner - Is next year the year? 2nd year post ACL

Walsh - Still think he's got another gear or two. 114 off a synde is crazy
McKay - Thought this was the year he goes 95-100, could be 2023.
Williams - Cheap enough and gets a discount. Flawless preseason required
TDK - Screams Tim English, probably too expensive, can just tell he's so close to putting it all together
McGovern - Another preaseason training in the intercept role, could be a strong value option


Grundy - Only interested if moves clubs. Will get a discount
Crisp - Probably better options around....
N Daicos - ... like this bloke. 105 isn't out of the question
Cameron - If Grundy leaves im extremely interested, even at probably mid 400s and ruck only. Has all the attributes to be a very good fantasy ruck
De Goey - I've never been burnt by him, would consider if moved clubs
Poulter/Ruscoe/F Macrae - All very similar scenario, need some player movement and opportunity to go there way but all have pedigree in the right role

Redman - There's argument that he's underpriced, harder sell with this spike score
Ridley - No interest whatsoever unless Redman injured or moves.
Draper - He'll breakout eventually, whether it's next year remains to be seen
Hobbs/Perkins - Can score in the role, only interested if training pure midfield and keep DPP

Brayshaw - Ticks all the boxes yet seems to get fisted by CD similar to a younger Merrett.
Young - Man this guy is good. Like really, really good. I dont think you can pick him at high 400s but when he goes 105 I won't bat an eyelid
Meek - Please go to a club crying for a number 1 ruck, I promise I'll pick you
Fyfe - Will be dirt cheap + discount, need a flawless preaseason.

Touk - Monster, probably Top 3 safest to go 120 alongside Clarry and Laird.
Lukosius/Bowes/whoever - Someone is ready to sloot in that suns defense with all the injuries, Rory fkn Atkins is on kickouts right now.
Sharp - Feels like his role is so much better when Ellis misses (sample size including last year)

Atkins - Permo midfiield, Dads army out, 87 av looks unders
Danger - Think he's cooked, would need a big preseason that I dont think he's got left in himself
Parfitt - Feels like he's been biding his time for years
Menegola - Yuck but he'll be dirt cheap
Holmes - Another to jump on when dads army hangs up the boots

Kelly - Im now more and more convinced that he has a 125 season in him, just needs the right coach to find it
Taranto - New club that isn't Richmond and im keen.
Himmelberg - Confirmation that he's playing defense and he's just about first picked for me
Whitfield - Tell myself never again every year, but he's so cheap....
Ash/Hopper - Hopper especially, needs to right role and flawless preseason, but will be dirt cheap plus discount
Bruhn - Move of club plus keeping DPP and im keen
Haynes - Are his fantasy relevant days completely over. His best footy as an intercept back is so much better than 55

Reeves - There's signs here. Very very very high hitout floor in the Witts mould
Worpel - Would need some player movement and a really strong preseason, has shown it in the past when he gets the role


Oliver - Just ridiculous, can't pick everyone but he just does it every single year
Brayshaw - Very interested if keeps DPP and gets back into the midfield
Salem - Too cheap for what he can produce

LDU - Would take some decent kahunas to select, there's another north guy who I prefer...
Simp - Alot of preseason hype this year that he takes the step to 105-110. Willing to put a line through this year and try again next
Xerri - At some point North have to look elsewhere from Goldy. Has demonstrated he can score in the role
Stephenson - Feel ill suggesting this, but someone has to junk it up in defense....
Powell - Had preseason hype, didn't deliver. 3rd year breakout watch
Tarryn - Strong preseaon and I'm very keen. Far too cheap for what he can produce
Phillips - Supposedly sickness really knocked him around, has 7-8 months to work into it


Rozzee - Just about first picked if he keeps fwd status. Just insanely good at football
Lycett - Big discount and sounds as if Port are keen to look at other rucks. Probably needs a new club
Duursma - Will be insanely cheap, probably not relevant without DPP
Teakle - Rookie priced, internally Port seem very keen on him long term. Could be a nice R3


Steele - Underpriced slightly for what he can produce. Looks to be a very strong starting M3-4
Marshall - Ryder needs to move on, this guy gets a full preseason and DPP and he's first picked
Clark - Will be dirt cheap + discount, needs to stop getting injured


Ladhams - Need Hickey to hang the boots up, would be gaining so much knowledge from Dean Cox

Bont - Probably the most likely guy I pick out of the dogs mids
Hunter - Too cheap for what he can produce, probably needs a new coach
Cleary - will be rookie priced, slotted in well in his two games, should play more footy next year


Kelly - Allergic to working through a tag, 83 is grotesque unders
Yeo - Cheap + discount, probably needs to be playing HBF rather than mid for durability reasons
Sheed- Cheap + discount , loves junking it up, and will be in a garbage midfield. Tick.
Foley/SPS - Needs Hurn out, Witherden delisted and suddenly extremely relevant
L. Edwards - Underage pedigree and Eagles need to play the kids
 
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#85
There's really 2 categories, the "had a shocking 2022" and the "break out contender"

The following might meet the "shocking 2022" criteria, as they are currently priced between 200 and 350k and have lost more than 100k on their starting price (fwds only)

Zac Bailey
Jack Ziebell
Will Snelling
Jack Higgins
Liam Shiels
Shane Edwards
Tarryn Thomas
Joe Daniher
Ben Brown
Steven Motlop
Sam Petrevski-Seton
Luke Dalhaus


There's a bit of a theme there, and not one that makes me think I'll be taking any of them. But perhaps there's a role change that could help....
 
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West Coast
#86
There's really 2 categories, the "had a shocking 2022" and the "break out contender"

The following might meet the "shocking 2022" criteria, as they are currently priced between 200 and 350k and have lost more than 100k on their starting price (fwds only)

Zac Bailey
Jack Ziebell
Will Snelling
Jack Higgins
Liam Shiels
Shane Edwards
Tarryn Thomas
Joe Daniher
Ben Brown
Steven Motlop
Sam Petrevski-Seton
Luke Dalhaus


There's a bit of a theme there, and not one that makes me think I'll be taking any of them. But perhaps there's a role change that could help....
Tarryn Thomas is the only one I will be interested in out of those/ much depends on his situation. If he has a great preseason, new coach that has a clearly defined role for him (eg more midfield than fwd) then he presents great value for the talent he has & the scores he can produce.

Look at his scores from round 9 onwards in the 2021 season, when he was getting more midfield time & was in real form :-

Screen Shot 2022-08-01 at 1.08.10 pm.png

So 2 poor sub 70 scores out of 13, 4 x 100 + scores & 5 scores in the 90's
 
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#87
Tarryn Thomas is the only one I will be interested in out of those/ much depends on his situation. If he has a great preseason, new coach that has a clearly defined role for him (eg more midfield than fwd) then he presents great value for the talent he has & the scores he can produce.

Look at his scores from round 9 onwards in the 2021 season, when he was getting more midfield time & was in real form :-

View attachment 46648

So 2 poor sub 70 scores out of 13, 4 x 100 + scores & 5 scores in the 90's

I know it too well. Have him in a keeper league and had a couple of big trade offers at the end of last year that I knocked back. I'm pretty worried right now. But if his head is right and the coach plays him in the correct role he's got the capability for sure.
 
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Sydney
#91
@wogitalia

Really like your list, 1 Sydney guy I am surprised you didn't mention is Errol Gulden.

If he maintains fwd status (not sure on his breakdown), I am going to be tempted by him. Averaging 107.3 over the last 3 rounds, such a talented young player.
Always miss someone! Another very strong option as long as he keeps forward. So much Zach Merrett in him but more goal sense already. Think he can be a huge scorer. Parker, Warner and Mills are pretty serious impediments to the best possible role, also Papley and Rowbottom (don't rate him though but he's hard at least).

Serious option though.



"We" never knew that Will Brodie was more Will Brodie than Charlie Constable until he was (and I refused to accept it all year, hence my rubbish ranking

Coniglio had that history of scoring, but at this stage last year would anyone have locked in Brodie vs Caldwell or whoever?

There will be players that go from mid pricers to locks, but who they are is the great challenge, and knowing who is the risk worth taking either at 229k or 350k is what separates the winners from the also-rans

(Says someone who started a couple of the "wrong" mid pricers this year, and paid the price)
To be fair, Brodie has always been one of those "if they play him in position" guys, was a stud at GC when played mid but given they paid Freo to take him there was clearly some personal issues involved with his spot at the club.

There will be several of the Brodie types this year most likely. This year it was Brodie, Caldwell (kind of), Lipinski, Hewett, CCJ, Chol, Clark, and Stengle at new clubs, not all success stories albeit I think that Brodie, Caldwell, Lipinski, Hewett, Clark and Stengle were in enough sides to at least suggest they were chances and the others were the lower options anyway. 2021 had Hind, RAtkins, Zilliams, Daniher, Corr, Brouch, Hinge, Markov, Hogan, Wright, Preuss (kind of this year also), Caldwell (vice versa), Young, Saad, Hickey, Witherden, Stephenson and Phillips among a few others. Again, not all success stories but all had narratives at the very least.

This year we're likely to have several guys, perhaps a more high end group with the GWS guys, Grundy and Jackson all possible but there will be a few fringe guys who head to new clubs for bigger roles that will present value plays.

We're also at the point where the other "obvious" pathway to value starts to show it's face. Guys like Warner, Himmelberg, Redman, Coleman, Atkins, Berry, Rozee and the types who've had positive role changes that look likely to stick or at least watching for in the preseason. That's where the Dale, Ziebell, Rioli, Coleman, Cumming, Blakey and similar have come from the past couple of years.

Then there's perhaps the worst but also easiest group of the lot which is the injury crew. They've got the obvious problem of bad injury history but they've also generally got the good point of strong scoring history. Whitfield, Rich, Hopper, Graham, Bruce, English, De Goey, Greene (never really got back from the preseason), Preuss, Zorko, Grundy, Day, Duursma, Yeo, Fyfe, Thomas, Callaghan, McGovern (yep!), Wingard (one last ride on the death coaster?), Marshall, Lukosius, Salem, Danger (if FWD especially), Lycett, Billings, Hayes (x2 really), Stringer, Hickey, Zilliams, Chapman, Dusty, NicNat and Hall all potential options to varying degrees of value.


Doesn't matter what price he finishes on this year, his price next year will still probably start at around $600K, possibly more based on his season average.
Hard to really go him either, maybe if Dunkley leaves then his value increases but he's pretty much mirroring the scoring trends of everyone not named Gary Ablett Jr, you just can't sustain that level of scoring for 5+ years and the fade starts to set in a bit at that point, his finish to the season is seriously concerning as a starting option next year. Albeit, you can equally make the value case. He's always reminded me of Pendles and the career path for SC scoring is eerily similar.

Actually think next year is going to be a very interesting year. Can see a very clear two paths between those who back in the Sicily, Stewart and Sinclair trio down back and those who take it on, can see that being a very bi-polar decision. There could be a very similar situation in the forwards if the likes of Bont, Smith, Dunkley and Marshall all get FWD status.

Rucks also looking very interesting from the get go. Value options aplenty, Gawn without Jackson possibly? Grundy at a new club? Marshall potentially alone. Whether North (moving on from Goldy), Geelong (getting a ruckman), Adelaide (cash in ROB and/or upgrade), Brisbane (legit #1 ruck), Carlton (genuine #1), Essendon (Draper 1-out or upgrade Draper completely), GWS (go all in, although Preuss is very solid when on-field), Hawthorn (#1 type), Port (#1 type) or Sydney (genuine #1 who can stay on the park) decide to do something about their ruck weakness could really change the whole landscape. You've got the likes of Flynn, Meek, Sweet, Cameron, Jackson and Ladhams who've all flashed #1 potential at times at least. Then you've got the Grundy, NicNat, ROB and Darcy types who at least conceivably could be on a trade table depending what their clubs decide on other options/rebuild/salary cap scenarios.

And then you get to the mids :LOL:
 
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#92
Always miss someone! Another very strong option as long as he keeps forward. So much Zach Merrett in him but more goal sense already. Think he can be a huge scorer. Parker, Warner and Mills are pretty serious impediments to the best possible role, also Papley and Rowbottom (don't rate him though but he's hard at least).

Serious option though.





To be fair, Brodie has always been one of those "if they play him in position" guys, was a stud at GC when played mid but given they paid Freo to take him there was clearly some personal issues involved with his spot at the club.

There will be several of the Brodie types this year most likely. This year it was Brodie, Caldwell (kind of), Lipinski, Hewett, CCJ, Chol, Clark, and Stengle at new clubs, not all success stories albeit I think that Brodie, Caldwell, Lipinski, Hewett, Clark and Stengle were in enough sides to at least suggest they were chances and the others were the lower options anyway. 2021 had Hind, RAtkins, Zilliams, Daniher, Corr, Brouch, Hinge, Markov, Hogan, Wright, Preuss (kind of this year also), Caldwell (vice versa), Young, Saad, Hickey, Witherden, Stephenson and Phillips among a few others. Again, not all success stories but all had narratives at the very least.

This year we're likely to have several guys, perhaps a more high end group with the GWS guys, Grundy and Jackson all possible but there will be a few fringe guys who head to new clubs for bigger roles that will present value plays.

We're also at the point where the other "obvious" pathway to value starts to show it's face. Guys like Warner, Himmelberg, Redman, Coleman, Atkins, Berry, Rozee and the types who've had positive role changes that look likely to stick or at least watching for in the preseason. That's where the Dale, Ziebell, Rioli, Coleman, Cumming, Blakey and similar have come from the past couple of years.

Then there's perhaps the worst but also easiest group of the lot which is the injury crew. They've got the obvious problem of bad injury history but they've also generally got the good point of strong scoring history. Whitfield, Rich, Hopper, Graham, Bruce, English, De Goey, Greene (never really got back from the preseason), Preuss, Zorko, Grundy, Day, Duursma, Yeo, Fyfe, Thomas, Callaghan, McGovern (yep!), Wingard (one last ride on the death coaster?), Marshall, Lukosius, Salem, Danger (if FWD especially), Lycett, Billings, Hayes (x2 really), Stringer, Hickey, Zilliams, Chapman, Dusty, NicNat and Hall all potential options to varying degrees of value.




Hard to really go him either, maybe if Dunkley leaves then his value increases but he's pretty much mirroring the scoring trends of everyone not named Gary Ablett Jr, you just can't sustain that level of scoring for 5+ years and the fade starts to set in a bit at that point, his finish to the season is seriously concerning as a starting option next year. Albeit, you can equally make the value case. He's always reminded me of Pendles and the career path for SC scoring is eerily similar.

Actually think next year is going to be a very interesting year. Can see a very clear two paths between those who back in the Sicily, Stewart and Sinclair trio down back and those who take it on, can see that being a very bi-polar decision. There could be a very similar situation in the forwards if the likes of Bont, Smith, Dunkley and Marshall all get FWD status.

Rucks also looking very interesting from the get go. Value options aplenty, Gawn without Jackson possibly? Grundy at a new club? Marshall potentially alone. Whether North (moving on from Goldy), Geelong (getting a ruckman), Adelaide (cash in ROB and/or upgrade), Brisbane (legit #1 ruck), Carlton (genuine #1), Essendon (Draper 1-out or upgrade Draper completely), GWS (go all in, although Preuss is very solid when on-field), Hawthorn (#1 type), Port (#1 type) or Sydney (genuine #1 who can stay on the park) decide to do something about their ruck weakness could really change the whole landscape. You've got the likes of Flynn, Meek, Sweet, Cameron, Jackson and Ladhams who've all flashed #1 potential at times at least. Then you've got the Grundy, NicNat, ROB and Darcy types who at least conceivably could be on a trade table depending what their clubs decide on other options/rebuild/salary cap scenarios.

And then you get to the mids :LOL:
Fantastic post. So much to consider between now and next year.
 
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#93
Theres always underpriced premiums, Im talking the 200-250K types that weve essentially built our teams around the last couple seasons, just dont think they are going to be there in 2023, lot more Charlie Constable's than Will Brodie candidates IMHO.
It looks unlikely there will be a Ziebell, Cogs or Brodie again, never know with role changes in preseason though.

Theres going to be a lot of non keepers, but value in the 300-400 range. Sheed & Hopper are the main two who are clear best 22 and should both get high CBAs. Fiorini at a new club but seems unlikely. Fyfe needs a full preseason but looks cooked. If GWS have an exodus we might see some new faces get CBAs.

For some younger guys, Josh Ward is putting together a good back half of the year and I expect him to be the #1 CBA mid for Hawthorn. Dev Robertson is doing 105 on the VFL, with Zorko and Lyons looking cooked a spot may open for him.
 
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#94
Is there a resource to easily determine which players will likely lose their dpp (or other positional changes) for 2023?
Like Hewett I would say is almost certain to lose Def status, Dawson has played a bit more back, but who knows?
 
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#95
Is there a resource to easily determine which players will likely lose their dpp (or other positional changes) for 2023?
Like Hewett I would say is almost certain to lose Def status, Dawson has played a bit more back, but who knows?
AFL player ratings release updates on a weekly basis via twitter.

Unsure how to embed here but a few of note listed below;

Dawson listed as gen def.
Himmelberg listed as key fwd.
Bont, Libba, Crisp, Hewett listed as mid.
Whitfield listed as wing.
Bolton, De Goey, Cogs, Dunkley, Rozee, Gulden, Bailey, Butters listed as mid-fwd.
 
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#97
early thoughts on players I'd like to start

D: Dawson, Redman, Hayden Young
M: Touk, Steele, Walsh, Warner, Hopper
R: Gawn/Darcy, Marshall
F: Dunkley, Rozee, Himmelberg

Don't think Marshall gets DPP, or Bont gets DPP unless he plays a lot of forward the last 3 weeks
 
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