Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

[The Banker]

Found this quite an interesting exercise. As you would suspect, majority of players breaking their season CBA average in a game gives an increase in average.

Selected players are a combination of mid premiums and potential role changes (and in the case of Sydney some that may impede their midfields number eg Papley/Heeney with the current crop and the new signings). Might help answer some questions on premiums and value hunting, even more so with some preseason and R0 games/numbers.

Could take it further with TOG stats, but didn't go that far.

Source: DFS website

 

[Shaunpro1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1756221118585917655

View: https://twitter.com/freodockers/status/1756221118585917655

Huge sub candidate due to versatility and injury history but the kid can play

 

[Shaunpro1]

I'd agree. Extremely underpriced for what he can produce. I'm still seriously considering starting him instead of wasting a trade or two trying to get him in after his round 3 bye.

I just think as the Captain hes content to play other roles for the benefit of the side, they want to fast track Humphrey and Flanders development, not sure he has quite the ceiling of his absolute peak was a very frustrating own for me last year, with the bye you can afford to wait and assess later in the season.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Found this quite an interesting exercise. As you would suspect, majority of players breaking their season CBA average in a game gives an increase in average.

Selected players are a combination of mid premiums and potential role changes (and in the case of Sydney some that may impede their midfields number eg Papley/Heeney with the current crop and the new signings). Might help answer some questions on premiums and value hunting, even more so with some preseason and R0 games/numbers.

Could take it further with TOG stats, but didn't go that far.

Source: DFS website

View attachment 67624

Great work. Didn't I see you message you were going to miss the season (or maybe just not joining PAR2A league). You have done more work here than most in preseason, particularly if manually driven, would be awesome to have you back in the league. Hope you change your mind as it this type of analysis which makes it fun.

Interesting when many jumping on Petracca. Green a surprise and the issue with Sinclair is right there.

 

[Toothless Tigers]

Full Forwards are passe these day for SC scoring, imagine what Dunstall, Lockett, Modra or Ablett would have scored at their peak.

 

[donnybuang]

I think I’ve just seen a lot of people talk themselves out of strong picks because of round 0. Not saying you don’t need to find balance, but avoiding them altogether or taking compromised picks instead isn’t the answer. There are going to be a lot of teams with sub par premiums that they can’t justify getting rid of without falling behind everyone else upgrading.

Yeah, fair enough if people are replacing premos with non premos. That would be bizarre. Must admit, I haven't been through the RMT thread yet though.

 

[donnybuang]

Miller only in 24% of teams? Surely would be higher without the bye factor?

I'd presume a lot are taking Flanders as well. 2+ from the same bye team becomes a concern. GC paired with GWS a factor too.

 

[donnybuang]

^This is an interesting discussion.

Perhaps to make it a bit more concrete:

Which players are you forgoing because of their early bye?

Some potentially common names that come to mind for me:

Walsh (owner)
Touk (owner)
Neale (don’t think I’ve even heard him mentioned … and he won a Brownlow in a down year!)
Trac
Flanders (owner)

Multiple in each category for me, but two examples.

Walsh I'm picking because I reckon he's well underpriced.
Green I'm fading because there are other premos as good at the price range who have round 0 bye.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Found this quite an interesting exercise. As you would suspect, majority of players breaking their season CBA average in a game gives an increase in average.

Selected players are a combination of mid premiums and potential role changes (and in the case of Sydney some that may impede their midfields number eg Papley/Heeney with the current crop and the new signings). Might help answer some questions on premiums and value hunting, even more so with some preseason and R0 games/numbers.

Could take it further with TOG stats, but didn't go that far.

Source: DFS website

View attachment 67624

Really interesting. Lots of value in this I think to balance teams not just working from top down. It's good to see consistency in roles and the players that can still score well whether or not they're getting CBA's or not.

Thanks

Both Dusty Martin and Flanders appeal, James Jordan maybe, Yound for sure, Ollie Wines probably no, Harmes no, Newcombe no although natural progression with Newc might o***et.

I'd be interested to see Bailey Humphrey's numbers

 

[Vicwood]

Trying to talk myself into Sam Walsh. And the only reason is his early RD2 Bye. Looking over his first 6 oppenants season 2024

Daicos, Gulden, Miller, Gawn, Grundy and Flanders for me.

Midpricers and the better starting rookies are normally gone by the time we have the first bye.

Miller over Walsh. Just because Touk is a better price.?

 

[Chumpion]

Yeah, fair enough if people are replacing premos with non premos. That would be bizarre. Must admit, I haven't been through the RMT thread yet though.

I guess it depends on definitions.. lot of talk about Steele/Crouch/Guthrie types that I wouldn’t necessarily class as a premium, and definitely not as a top premium.

 

[The Banker]

Great work. Didn't I see you message you were going to miss the season (or maybe just not joining PAR2A league). You have done more work here than most in preseason, particularly if manually driven, would be awesome to have you back in the league. Hope you change your mind as it this type of analysis which makes it fun.

Interesting when many jumping on Petracca. Green a surprise and the issue with Sinclair is right there.

Couple of other leagues have popped up unfortunately.

The 3 you named from the bottom of the table definitely stood out.

I found Merrett quite interesting. 9 of his final 12 games went over. Might look at previous years because he's been a trending 2nd half of the season pick. Just have in my mind that if Essendon are taking the season as seriously as they say they are, that he needs to be in the thick of it from the o***et.

Touk and Steele similar rises when breaking their averages. Does Steele get the edge with bye? I did notice that Rowell and Anderson's attendances came down late in the season due to Flanders and Touk. Touk's numbers aren't incredibly high compared to the previous 2 seasons average of 80, however Flanders comes in as the 4th option that those seasons really lacked.

Butters started a little slow over the first month in CBA's, and still only went over 80% once for the season. Outstanding numbers considering. Talk about Wines moving back in, but doesn't really have me concerned because his season number is on the low side anyway. If he could get a season average to near 70 he looks one of the best premium picks imo.

 

[The Banker]

Really interesting. Lots of value in this I think to balance teams not just working from top down. It's good to see consistency in roles and the players that can still score well whether or not they're getting CBA's or not.

Thanks

Both Dusty Martin and Flanders appeal, James Jordan maybe, Yound for sure, Ollie Wines probably no, Harmes no, Newcombe no although natural progression with Newc might o***et.

I'd be interested to see Bailey Humphrey's numbers

New clubhouse leader, although 4 of those 8 games were without Touk and Flanders

 

[NT.Thunder]

New clubhouse leader, although 4 of those 8 games were without Touk and Flanders

View attachment 67639

Okay thanks, you can delete that now

He's one to monitor over the pre-season and years to come.

 

[Ironhawk]

Couple of other leagues have popped up unfortunately.

You can join 20 leagues this year. The spot is still available if you are interested. If not, thanks for participating last year.

 

[The Banker]

Okay thanks, you can delete that now

He's one to monitor over the pre-season and years to come.

Probably the next Petracca. He looks like he can score in the hybrid role, however there is also a case that when he gets CBA's his scoring was a little more consistent too. Definitely one to monitor.

 

[The Banker]

You can join 20 leagues this year. The spot is still available if you are interested. If not, thanks for participating last year.

Still thought it was 10. Hadn't really looked at the leagues page too hard. In that case count me back in if it's not too late.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Probably the next Petracca. He looks like he can score in the hybrid role, however there is also a case that when he gets CBA's his scoring was a little more consistent too. Definitely one to monitor.

That's the key piece, just working out when that happens.

 

[Manikato1]

I guess it depends on definitions.. lot of talk about Steele/Crouch/Guthrie types that I wouldn’t necessarily class as a premium, and definitely not as a top premium.

This discussion has been raised on a number of occasions. My take when picking a team is to use the term keeper. A player is a keeper if you pick them with the intention/hope of keeping them for the season. Currently I have 12 keeepers in my team but they are not all premos. I prefer to use the word premo in SC terms for guys that have proven themselves at a high level for several seasons eg 114/115 plus for mids and ruck. Lower for def (around 108/9). It gets tricky for fwds as usually the highest scoring guys are actually playing a lot of mid time and then become SC mids the next year so they don't stay fwds. None of those guys mentioned are premos IMO but that is just my criteria. Steele got close but would need to get to that 114/115 plus level again this season to make a claim.

 

[Leroy]

Found this quite an interesting exercise. As you would suspect, majority of players breaking their season CBA average in a game gives an increase in average.

Selected players are a combination of mid premiums and potential role changes (and in the case of Sydney some that may impede their midfields number eg Papley/Heeney with the current crop and the new signings). Might help answer some questions on premiums and value hunting, even more so with some preseason and R0 games/numbers.

Could take it further with TOG stats, but didn't go that far.

Source: DFS website

View attachment 67624

Wardlaw
17% improvement when getting CBAs.

I'm all over the kid, think he will be a superstar, but a tough call at that price this year in SC.

Especially since the club won't burn him so early in his career.