Analysis AFL 2021: Rolling Perfect Team

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#81
Maximum score achievable after 5 rounds is 6350 and compares to the current leader who has 4500.

Points of note
  • Outs from R4: Oliver Davies, Jake Weatherald, Hilton Cartwright, Daniel Hughes
  • Ins from R4: Callum Ferguson, Alex Hales, James Peirson, Alex Carey, Scott Boland, Jyhe Richardson, Chris Green, Mujeeb Ur Rahman

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#82
Maximum score achievable after 6 rounds is 7917 and compares to the current leader who has 5588.

This rounds perfect team comes with a bit of a caveat in that you may note that the cumulate score in this run up to round 5 is in fact higher than the max score that was calculated for round 5. This obviously makes no sense and indicates that either there is an error in this run or the run for round 5.

I have done some investigation and have not been able to determine as yet exactly where the error lies however I have validated the team below as being correct in regard to budget, trades and score so I suspect the error was in the run for round 5.

Not surprisingly this team only features one Renegade in round 6 despite it having a DGR.


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#84
I can confirm that there was an error in the calculation for round 5. Max score was in fact 6543 (not 6350) and leader had 4500.

View attachment 24447
Great work with these. (y)
I am finding it interesting to follow and see the trade out timing. I would think in many cases people would be trading in "chasing points", and/or BE's for $$$. But in many instances it appears the opposite is almost better.
 
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#85
Maximum score achievable after 7 rounds is 9150 and compares to the current leader who has 6022.
  • Disappearing from the perfect team this week are Nicholas Poorun and Scott Boland
  • Joining the team are Marcus Stoinis, Mitch Marsh, Jake Weatherald, Andrew Tye and Nathan Ellis
  • RK19 traded out this week :eek:

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#86
Maximum score achievable after 8 rounds is 10597 (avg 1325) and compares to the current leader who has 7086 (avg 886).
  • Disappearing from the perfect team this week are Callum Ferguson, James Vince, James Pierson & Jordan Silk
  • Joining the team are King Carlos, Chris Lynn, Nicholas Poorun, Sam Billings, Mark Steketee & Brendan Doggett.
  • Hales benched in his DGR.
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#87
Maximum score achievable after 9 rounds is 11692 (avg 1299) and compares to the current leader who has 7596 (avg 844).
  • Very interestingly this team has the same score after 8 rounds as last week's team meaning it is just last week's team with 3 trades done for round 9. I thought this was highly unlikely however I have checked and doubled checked it and can't fault it.
  • That means there are no outs this week and Jason Roy and Stephen O'Keefe join the team. Sams was also traded in but had been in the team earlier.
  • Dan Christian and Jyhe Richardson traded out in round 9.
  • Massive cash balance now accumulated which means this team can basically trade in anybody it likes. I suppose that has contributed to the first point made above. It will be interesting to see if that happens again.

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#88
Maximum score achievable after 9 rounds is 11692 (avg 1299) and compares to the current leader who has 7596 (avg 844).
  • Very interestingly this team has the same score after 8 rounds as last week's team meaning it is just last week's team with 3 trades done for round 9. I thought this was highly unlikely however I have checked and doubled checked it and can't fault it.
  • That means there are no outs this week and Jason Roy and Stephen O'Keefe join the team. Sams was also traded in but had been in the team earlier.
  • Dan Christian and Jyhe Richardson traded out in round 9.
  • Massive cash balance now accumulated which means this team can basically trade in anybody it likes. I suppose that has contributed to the first point made above. It will be interesting to see if that happens again.

View attachment 24911
Compounding working beautifully!
 
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#89
Maximum score achievable after 10 rounds is 13335 (avg 1333.5) and compares to the current leader who has 8712 (avg 871.2).
  • Outs from last week: Josh Inglis, Carlos Braithwaite, Jason Roy, Jake Weatherald & Nicholas Pooran.
  • Interesting that 2 of those had a DGRs and not surprisingly both in my actual team.
  • Ins: Colin Munro, Andre Fletcher, Phil Salt, Callum Ferguson, James Peirson, Adam Zampa, Liam Livingston, Zahir Khan & Jason Behrendorff.
  • A few unlikelies there that popped back into the team in earlier rounds.

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#91
Maximum score achievable after 12 rounds is 15,826 (avg 1,319) and compares to the current leader who has 10,249(avg 854).
  • Outs from round 11: Josh Inglis, Ben Cutting, Zahir Khan,
  • Ins: Phil Salt, Sam Harper, Nick Larkin, Jordan Silk, Matthew Wade, Stephen O'Keefe, Marnus Labuschagne.
  • As tipped by yours truly; Hales, Carey & Richardson traded out in round 12.
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#92
Maximum score achievable after 12 rounds is 15,826 (avg 1,319) and compares to the current leader who has 10,249(avg 854).
  • Outs from round 11: Josh Inglis, Ben Cutting, Zahir Khan,
  • Ins: Phil Salt, Sam Harper, Nick Larkin, Jordan Silk, Matthew Wade, Stephen O'Keefe, Marnus Labuschagne.
  • As tipped by yours truly; Hales, Carey & Richardson traded out in round 12.
View attachment 25323
So the computer predicted trading them out was the right thing to do ?

Are those decisions made on logic ?

wow
 
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#94
Maximum score achievable after rounds 14 is 17,982 (avg 1,284) and compares to the current leader who has 11,629 (avg 831).
  • Note this until the end of last round and not the round that ended today. These one game one day rounds are hard to keep up with.
  • Given this team has no cash constraint this just the maximum score achievable after round 13 plus the perfect score for round 14. This will be the case each round from now on.
  • Obviously only the 11 scoring players here are relevant and the rest of them could be literally any other player.
  • I have ordered the players differently in this table. Thinking it is easier to read in this way.

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#95
Maximum score achievable for the year was 20,504 (avg 1,206) and compares to the winner who scored 13,214 (avg 777).
  • I am always staggered how much better is theoretically possible from what the winner scores.
  • Having said there it is obviously totally unrealistic that one person could make anywhere near the number of right decision that would be needed to achieve this (care to venture a guess and the probability @Rowsus).
  • I haven't posted the perfect team after each of the finals (been busy) however given this team had no cash constraints by this time, each of finals week includes the max score for that round so the bottom table with the progressive scores shows that for each finals round.
  • I have removed the trade shading from the finals week given trades are unlimited and it made it a bit hard to read.
  • In total 70 players of the 288 listed appeared at some time in the perfect team.
  • Not sure there is too much that can be gleaned from this to assist in picking your team however I find it an interesting academic exercise none-the-less.

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#98
So as I did last year season we will take a trip into fantasy land (well actually fantasy land of fantasy land) and see what the highest possible score is after each round. Round 1's instalment is as follows. Note I have posted 2 teams one which is the the theoretical highest and the other which is the highest only considering players that played (only 2 points lower). No need to allow for the R3 doughtnut this year given Paul Hunter played.

Note can a mod please retitle this thread back to AFL.

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So as I did last year season we will take a trip into fantasy land (well actually fantasy land of fantasy land) and see what the highest possible score is after each round. Round 1's instalment is as follows. Note I have posted 2 teams one which is the the theoretical highest and the other which is the highest only considering players that played (only 2 points lower). No need to allow for the R3 doughtnut this year given Paul Hunter played.

Note can a mod please retitle this thread back to AFL.

View attachment 27576
I was planning to use this team in my starting team comparison thread, to see if starting Rd 2 with the best team from Rd 1 can still get you a good result and picked up an error. Tom Lynch (Adelaide) didn't score 155, he scored 112. It looks like you have added the other Tom Lynch (Richmond) score of 43 onto his score as well.

Is there any chance you could rerun this to find the actual best Rd 1 team? I think it might not even change looking at the forward scores from Rd 1. Thanks.

Edit: Love this topic BTW, always find it really enjoyable seeing how far off perfection I am.
 
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