AFL DFS

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#1
Didn't see a thread for this.

So I play on Aussie based site, Draftstars: I'm playing todays $75 guaranteed AFL Saturday, $15 entry. Top prize today will be somewhere north of $7k, the payouts are similar to a poker tournament with min cashes escalating to the top prizes.

Its similar to Supercoach/Dreamteam in that you start with an imaginary salary and then build your team with that salary, the difference being obviously you have to build your team just for that set of games. The scoring is different in that its just purely stat based, no clangers involved etc.

So when I was looking ahead to todays games last week I really wanted to focus in on the North/Hawks game. Last weeks winner had a game stack of the North/Pies game, the rationale being you want to "game stack" players against a bad team and also pick players from that bad team's defense.

This week, I'm not so sure, just because of the weather at the various games. I've picked a couple of players from that Hawks/North game, but also included some jets from other games like Macrae and Jelly. I've paid down in my forward line and rucks to afford these players. The GWS' Briggs is at minimum salary and will likely have very high ownership given his role (I have him), Ladhams from Port is also a good buy given he's priced down for his role, Jonas I've also included in my team because Houston is out and someone has to take the kick ins. There are a number of other players I would like to get to but you can only have one team. I think the Pies/Swans game is a good one to also focus on, but the weather is a bit of a worry. I really wish I could have gotten the ultimate seagull in Lloyd in my team but couldn't.

Anyway, I only play one entry most of the time as I'm new to AFL DFS ( I've played NFL and NBA DFS a reasonable amount though): you can play up to 125 entries at a time, and yes that's at $15 a pop. There are a lot of sharks in these DFS tournaments and I know a number of pro/semi-pro poker players have switched over to it when online poker went down in Australia, but its not as if they are always a lock to win these things.
 
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#2
Another $15 into the fire today, focusing on the Freo/Bombers, WC/Crows games. One good way to look at this is to go to your favourite betting site and look at the over/under total points, as the bookies are usually good at predicting it. So those two games have quite a bit bigger total points prediction than the Blues/Dees game, hence the reason to focus on them.

Yesterday's winner focused on the Lions and Tigers games, and also had Ladhams as the ruck (who had super high ownership). Not sure how many entries he had but he won close to $7.5 k.
 
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#3
The likely winner of today's slate boxed the Freo/Bombers game, with one player from the current game (Weagles/Crows) for close to $6k. ZMerrett has sunk any chances I have of cashing, unless Jack Darling kicks another 10 goals.
 
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#7
How your lineup go, @Connoisseur?

I'm looking at spending $30 today for two entries, going with the Cats/Suns stack in one, and the highest projected points total in the Hawks/Blues game. I actually prefer the Cats game as I think its easier to game-script it, ie I think it's probably a blow out to the Cats and you can stack Suns defence Cats players appropriately.

Edit, just saw your post, well done!
 

Connoisseur

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#8
How your lineup go, @Connoisseur?

I'm looking at spending $30 today for two entries, going with the Cats/Suns stack in one, and the highest projected points total in the Hawks/Blues game. I actually prefer the Cats game as I think its easier to game-script it, ie I think it's probably a blow out to the Cats and you can stack Suns defence Cats players appropriately.

Edit, just saw your post, well done!
Sounds like a great plan and similar to my lineup in the free entry.
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#10
Don't know how to post images like that on here, but in the Cats stack I've used Jake K and Weightman from the Dogs in order to pay up for the likes of CGuthrie. Initially went with Touk as well but the hammy issue he had a few weeks ago is a bit of a worry. Worse thing for me is Touk tagging CGuthrie but whatever. Gotta risk it for the biscuit.

I do like Lukosius and ZWilliams today because I think both have avenues to easy points. In the other stack I avoided HMcKay (who could have a day out) because of his shoulder injury.
 
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#15
CGuthrie's injury crushed my hopes, allowed bottom pricer in Narkle to get a huge amount of mid time, Blicavs will likely be in the winning team for today's slate. I might crawl into the cash with one of my lineups but I'm not hopeful.
 
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#17
Finished with ~ 870 points for a few tiers above the smallest min-cash. Got a lot right, but to win the big bucks you have to get *everything* right.

The upper echelon of teams were a bit all over the place with their selection, which shows you there's more than one way to skin a cat.
 
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#18
Just did a (rushed) lineup focusing on the North game (yet again). Free squares today are the rookies, Highmore, Bianco, and possibly Clavarino (who I like less because he's a tall)

For the first time this season I'm bypassing both of the Ziebell/Hall duo. I think Narkle is excellent value given Guthrie's out and his form/role from last week. Being a mid opposite Grundy (who I also have in because of the late outs for the Cats) is no joke though. Tarryn Thomas is good value as well for the same reason though he is super reliant on other players to get him the ball despite playing as a ruck rover.
 
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#19
Grundy's injury affected my team yesterday, no cash as a result.

Not doing a slate today because literally I have no idea of who to pick. Normally I would attack that Tigers/Crows game given how terrible the current Crows are against midfielders, but with all the Tigers ins its going to be real hard to work out who is and who isn't getting capped game time. Also the venue change doesn't help.
 
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