Strategy Are We Too Protective Of Our Trades? The (Dimmawit) Key Forward Gambit

bwright

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Table for scores from 2018 based on the framework done by Rowsus on page one on scores for 2017

View attachment 6788
Anyone willing to take a punt on Peter Wright??

For those interested, the KPF players that were included are below. Feel free to add/remove as you see fit for the classification;
Charlie Curnow
Jeremy Cameron
Charlie Dixon
James Stewart
Tim Membrey
Jack Riewoldt
Tom J Lynch
Jesse Hogan
Ben Brown
Josh Jenkins
Jack Darling
Matthew Taberner
Jon Patton
Cameron McCarthy
Tom Hawkins
Jarrad Waite
Tom T Lynch
Tom McDonald
Rory Lobb
JJK
Taylor Walker
Eric Hipwood
Peter Wright
 

bwright

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So to confirm, these are scores averaged by KPF against these teams? Or avg total score in a game by KPF?
It's a ranking score that attempts to classify the likelihood of having a big score by a KPF against each opposition. The formula posed was the average score when going 110+/percentage of games the team allowed a 110+ score..

e.g. Gold Coast allowed 7 KPF scores of 110+ and the average of those scores were 146
7/23*146 = 44.48. So

If a KPF is matched up against Gold Coast for a round they get 44.8.
The numbers in the table then are the cumulative amounts for each opponent that team is playing up to that round
 

bwright

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It's a ranking score that attempts to classify the likelihood of having a big score by a KPF against each opposition. The formula posed was the average score when going 110+/percentage of games the team allowed a 110+ score..

e.g. Gold Coast allowed 7 KPF scores of 110+ and the average of those scores were 146
7/23*146 = 44.48. So

If a KPF is matched up against Gold Coast for a round they get 44.8.
The numbers in the table then are the cumulative amounts for each opponent that team is playing up to that round
Feel like I am bastardizing @Rowsus work here! Feel free to jump in and correct at any time!!
 

bwright

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Very hard to tell with a completely restructured forward line but for me it makes Lobb an interesting R2 option. With Sandi and Darcy you think he plays more as a permanent forward and Freo's early season draw could allow him to get off to a flyer. Then you have some scoring history to jump on the best R2 you think is available by upgrading a forward rookie and swap Lobb for a forward premium that you think will be more consistent/better scoring than Lobb as his draw gets tougher
 
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It's a ranking score that attempts to classify the likelihood of having a big score by a KPF against each opposition. The formula posed was the average score when going 110+/percentage of games the team allowed a 110+ score..

e.g. Gold Coast allowed 7 KPF scores of 110+ and the average of those scores were 146
7/23*146 = 44.48. So

If a KPF is matched up against Gold Coast for a round they get 44.8.
The numbers in the table then are the cumulative amounts for each opponent that team is playing up to that round
So the teams at the top of that table, have a more favourable draw for a KPF ?
 

Dimmawit

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I think whatever KPF you pick needs to be cheap enough so that if they go bang you can bank 150-200k with 5-6 rounds. Being fit and on the back of a good pre-season also a pre-req. Tex is the choice on price but he doesnt really kick big bags. JJK or Lynch are arguably decent options but they are both under injury clouds. I'm not sure there are any good candidates this year.
 
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The only problem with that is that Darling is already quite expensive, so you will likely not make over 100k plus on him. Thus minimising the benefits of this move.
Good post Vega.
I tend to think it is best to work off the bottom of the price cycle. Last year Darling was only priced at 72 but this year he is priced at 86. Someone like Lynch or JJK are better options or you could take a punt on a breakout like Curnow or Wright with the plan to trade if their price gets high. This worked last year with Jesse Hogan. I also wouldn't lock in the second player but let the season unfold.
Darling also had two injury games - taken out, I think he avg’d 96 or so. Arguably a little bit of value there.

JJK is at the better price point for this move though
All very fair points. I just ran the tooserious salary predictor and at an average of around 106 (couple of 140+, couple of 60s in there), he only made 80k in the first 8 rounds. This is disappointing as he has a few games where I can see him getting off the leash and averaging in that 100-110 range for the first 8-9 rounds before reducing to his 85-95 season average.
 
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Discussion: Josh Jenkins.

From round 4 to 8 the Crows have North (battling for fit KDs - Tarrant may be underdone, Thompson should be ok, will be with McKay or Watson as the next), Gold Coast, St Kilda, Freo and Port. They end up rating 7th after 6 and 7 rounds, although I'd say if you then put in a stat about which clubs are likely to have those big games - GC with no Lynch have no one with a history, WB have no KF to kick a bag, Fremantle it's a stretch - so Crows may be the 4th ranked club on the data posted.

He has form - 2016 he went into round 7 at 388k, he went into his round 13 bye at 506k after averaging 108.8 in 6 rounds.
2017 his price rose from a low of 336k to a high of 474k after averaging 98.3 in 7 rounds (end of year).
2018 his price rose from 324k to 457k after averaging 99.6 in 8 rounds (end of year).

Should largely be on a winning side (well, fair chance the Crows are at least the same but likely better). Fit and no worries in the pre-season.

Again maybe too much on the Darling side of valued correctly (438k, average of 80, career high 86) but certainly worth a look as a guy who kicks bags (1x bag of 8, 1x 7, 3x 5 in 3 years), does get some easy looks (don't have to rely on total domination), and is looking to get on the end of a much improved side.
 

Rowsus

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While I would never question a previous overall winner, and the man whose name appears in the title of the thread ......... ;)

I would think if you can find a player who averages for the period you have them, something in the order of what you expect your F1 to finish the season on (or better, of course), and make $100k on the deal, I'd call it a win. $80k and it is about a break even on the deal.
 

Dimmawit

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Ha challenge away rowsus.

I think we are looking at it different ways. It's one one thing to identify an underpriced key forward and ride him for the season and something else to use only as a stepping stone
 

Rowsus

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I see it as somewhat more "explosive" than a Stepping Stone, as if you picked a Stepping Stone you might just decide to ride them out, if they are performing that well. Here, you are trading a player out (just like your Cloke) that has overperformed, and has some people bending and breaking their team to get him in, just as you are trading him out.
Not sure I'm wording that very well, but I think you get my meaning.
 
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Really coming around to Walker F4 Wright F5.

Priced at about 650k for those two spots, fairly locked in 28 other spots. So trying to figure out which set of 2 I prefer there.
 

Rowsus

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Really coming around to Walker F4 Wright F5.

Priced at about 650k for those two spots, fairly locked in 28 other spots. So trying to figure out which set of 2 I prefer there.
I nearly had 2 metre Peter starting in my team last year, with this in mind, and he's been in and out of my team this year, too.
 
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Anyone thought about doing this with someone like Sheed? First two round has no Gaff. Then Coll, Freo, Port, Geel, GC, STK to round 8.

Could pump out a few decent scores in there and then be traded to a premium that has dropped a bit.
 

Rowsus

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Anyone thought about doing this with someone like Sheed? First two round has no Gaff. Then Coll, Freo, Port, Geel, GC, STK to round 8.

Could pump out a few decent scores in there and then be traded to a premium that has dropped a bit.
It probably takes more balls to do it with a Mid, as a Mid is more likely to hold form, where a KPF is notoriously unreliable.
If Sheed was averaging 125 come Round 9 (firstly, I'd be amazed, as he's had 1 H & A score above 120 in the past 2 seasons, and only 4 scores higher than 100 in that time), it would take a lot of guts to say "No. He's had his time, out he goes". I could do it with a KPF, easily, but a Mid ........ dunno.
 
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