Brownlow Betting & Discussion

Who are your top 3 for the brownlow after rd11 (after Fyfe's suspension)

  • Titch 3.25

    Votes: 16 76.2%
  • Dusty 5.50

    Votes: 1 4.8%
  • Macrae 8.00

    Votes: 6 28.6%
  • Gawn 12.00

    Votes: 8 38.1%
  • Gaff 12.00

    Votes: 6 28.6%
  • Cotchin 16.00

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Cripps 18.00

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • Dangerfield 21.00

    Votes: 3 14.3%
  • Treloar 23.00

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Oliver 28.00

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • Grundy 34.00

    Votes: 5 23.8%
  • JPK 34.00

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Sidey 34.00

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • Selwood 41.00

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Coniglio 41.00

    Votes: 1 4.8%
  • Pendles 41.00

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Ablett 41.00

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Beams 41.00

    Votes: 1 4.8%
  • Laird 41.00

    Votes: 3 14.3%
  • Other

    Votes: 1 4.8%

  • Total voters
    21

IDIG

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#1
Current brownlow market following Fyfe's suspension.

brownlow.jpg
 

anfa18

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#3
Maybe a ruckman might win Charlie this year
I've gone back and checked the last 10 years to see how the best full time rucks have polled.

2017: Winner Martin 36 votes, best ruck Jacobs 10.
2016: Winner Dangerfield 35 votes, best ruck Gawn 16.
2015: Winner Fyfe 31 votes, best ruck Goldy 18.
2014: Winner Priddis 26 votes, best ruck Mumford 8.
2013: Winner Ablett Jr 28 votes, best ruck Leuenberger 8.
2012: Winner Cotchin & Mitchell 26 votes, best ruck Naitanui 10.
2011: Winner Swan 34 votes, best ruck Cox 18.
2010: Winner Judd 30 votes, best ruck Sandilands 20.
2009: Winner Ablett Jr 30 votes, best ruck Sandilands 10.
2008: Winner Cooney 24 votes, best ruck Sandilands 10.

Lowest margin 10 points.
Biggest margin 26 points.
Average margin 17.2 points.
 

Blades

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#5
I've gone back and checked the last 10 years to see how the best full time rucks have polled.

2017: Winner Martin 36 votes, best ruck Jacobs 10.
2016: Winner Dangerfield 35 votes, best ruck Gawn 16.
2015: Winner Fyfe 31 votes, best ruck Goldy 18.
2014: Winner Priddis 26 votes, best ruck Mumford 8.
2013: Winner Ablett Jr 28 votes, best ruck Leuenberger 8.
2012: Winner Cotchin & Mitchell 26 votes, best ruck Naitanui 10.
2011: Winner Swan 34 votes, best ruck Cox 18.
2010: Winner Judd 30 votes, best ruck Sandilands 20.
2009: Winner Ablett Jr 30 votes, best ruck Sandilands 10.
2008: Winner Cooney 24 votes, best ruck Sandilands 10.

Lowest margin 10 points.
Biggest margin 26 points.
Average margin 17.2 points.
Great analysis!

I'd love Gawn or Grundy to win it this year but it doesn't look good based on history.... I tell you what though, if you asked Goodwin, Buckley and any of their assistants who they can least afford to lose in 2018 and I don't reckon any of them would hesitate to say anything other than their Ruck.
 

IDIG

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#6
Having a look at the market after Fyfe's suspension i reckon this is as open a brownlow as we've had in years. It's difficult to feel confident on any one.
 

IDIG

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#8
midfielders medal, yet no mention of Darling (maybe due to his injury) or Hogan in the Top 30
I reckon they'd be more suited to top 5 or 10 markets or even to take their team markets.

Fwiw both Darling and Hogan are $101.
 
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#9
I reckon they'd be more suited to top 5 or 10 markets or even to take their team markets.

Fwiw both Darling and Hogan are $101.
you are probably right , wonder if Gaff gets enough Victoria media attention to win it , pure winger.

Mitchell or Macrae at this stage or BBQ Treloar.

Kelly to come storming home
 

IDIG

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#10
Here's a couple of counts i could find. Will post more as i find them.

AFL Coaches Association
51 Nat Fyfe FRE
46 Patrick Cripps CARL
45 Trent Cotchin RICH
45 Max Gawn MELB
42 Jack Darling WCE
40 Jack Macrae WB
40 Tom Mitchell HAW
38 Steele Sidebottom COLL
37 Andrew Gaff WCE
35 Brodie Grundy COLL
35 Dustin Martin RICH
34 Rory Laird ADEL
31 Ben Brown NMFC
31 Jesse Hogan MELB
30 Ben Cunnington NMFC
30 Tom Phillips COLL
30 Callum Sinclair SYD
29 Dyson Heppell ESS
28 Clayton Oliver MELB
28 Tom Stewart GEEL


The Age (looks like 5 players are given votes out of 10, most getting between 6-8)
Andrew Gaff (West Coast) 64
Rory Laird (Adelaide) 63
Steele Sidebottom (Collingwood) 59
Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn) 53
Max Gawn (Melbourne) 52
Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) 50
Isaac Heeney (Sydney) 49
Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs) 48
Dayne Beams (Brisbane Lions) 47
Bryce Gibbs (Adelaide) 46
Ben Cunnington (North Melbourne) 45
Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood) 44
Joel Selwood (Geelong) 44
Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) 42
Trent Cotchin (Richmond) 40
Dustin Martin (Richmond) 40
Patrick Cripps (Carlton) 39
Adam Treloar (Collingwood) 39
Jesse Hogan (Melbourne) 38
Shaun Higgins (North Melbourne) 38
 

IDIG

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#11
Updated leaderboards after round 18.

Very interesting the current fave with the bookies, Titch ($2.10) is not leading either count.

Fwiw the next faves are Gaff $7, Cripps $10, Dusty $11, Gawn $11, Higgins $14 then Beams, Sidey, Oliver $26+.

AFL Coaches Association
71 Max Gawn MELB
68 Patrick Cripps CARL
68 Tom Mitchell HAW
64 Shaun Higgins NMFC
61 Andrew Gaff WCE
59 Nat Fyfe FRE
54 Dustin Martin RICH
53 Dyson Heppell ESS
53 Clayton Oliver MELB
53 Steele Sidebottom COLL
52Rory Laird ADEL
51 Dayne Beams BL
48 Kane Lambert RICH
48 Lachie Whitfield GWS
47 Scott Pendlebury COLL
47 Elliot Yeo WCE
46 Trent Cotchin RICH
46 Brodie Grundy COLL
45 Jordan De Goey COLL
44 Stephen Coniglio GWS


The Age
Andrew Gaff (West Coast) 97
Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn) 92
Steele Sidebottom (Collingwood) 87
Rory Laird (Adelaide) 80
Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood) 76
Max Gawn (Melbourne) 76
Stephen Coniglio (GWS) 74
Dayne Beams (Brisbane Lions) 73
Lachie Neale (Fremantle) 73
Joel Selwood (Geelong) 72
Zach Merrett (Essendon) 67
Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) 67
Isaac Heeney (Sydney) 64
Dustin Martin (Richmond) 62
Patrick Cripps (Carlton) 61
Clayton Oliver (Melbourne) 61
Shaun Higgins (North Melbourne) 61
Josh Kennedy (Sydney) 60
Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) 58
Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) 58
Lance Franklin (Sydney) 58
 

Drew

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#12
Rory Laird as a smoky? Think from memory he was the first defender ever to have two games in a row with 40+ possessions earlier in the year and has been solid all year. I reckon he’d have a few 3 point games in the bag already and it looks like a year where you only need 20-odd points to win it.
 

IDIG

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#13
Rory Laird as a smoky? Think from memory he was the first defender ever to have two games in a row with 40+ possessions earlier in the year and has been solid all year. I reckon he’d have a few 3 point games in the bag already and it looks like a year where you only need 20-odd points to win it.
I’ll be watching with interest how Laird and Lloyd poll. I’ve seen a tally that has Laird behind Crouch/Gibbs whereas others have Laird comfortably ahead.

I’ve jumped on Lloyd $51 most votes for Sydney just in case he finishes well and polls better than expected early. Probably no chance but $51 is juicy!

Also Neale most votes Freo at $11 (now $8) and Witts most votes GC at $21.

I heard Fyfe is not expected back for another 3 weeks so there must be a (very small) chance he doesn’t come back at all if he doesn’t improve like they expect.
 

IDIG

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#14
AFL Brownlow Predictor (after Rd 18)

20 Fyfe*
18 Cripps
17 Dusty, Higgins, Titch
16 Gawn, beams
15 Yeo
14 Gaff
13 Grundy
12 JDG, Heppell, Oliver, Pendles
11 Coniglio, Cotchin, Hogan, Macrae, JOM, Steven
10 Danger, Zerrett, Jelwood, Sidey, Ward

By Club
Adelaide:
8 Gibbs, 7 Laird, 5 Walker
Brisbane: 16 Beams, 7 Martin, 4 Zorko, McCluggage
Carlton: 18 Cripps, 4 Curnow, Simpson
Collingwood: Grundy 13, Pendles, De Goey 12, Sidey 10
Essendon: 12 Heppell, 10 Zerrett, 6 Smith
Fremantle: 20 Fyfe, 8 Neale
Geelong: 10 Danger, Jelwood, 7 Ablett, Hawkins, Stewart
Gold Coast: 5 Young, 4 Miller, 3 Bowes, Lynch, Lyons
GWS: 11 Cogs, 10 Ward, 9 Kelly
Hawthorn: 17 Mitchell, 11 JOM, 8 Sicily
Melbourne: 16 Gawn, 12 Oliver, 11 Hogan
North: 17 Higgins, 9 Cunnington, 7 Brown Waite
Port: 9 Wines, 8 Wingard, 7 Gray
Richmond: 17 Martin, 11 Cotchin, 7 Edwards
St Kilda: 11 Stevens, 4 Billings, 3 Ross
Sydney: 9 Buddy, JPK, 6 Heeney, Parker, 5 Lloyd, Ronke, Sinclair
West Coast: 15 Yeo, 14 Gaff, 9 Darling, Hurn
Western Bulldogs: 11 Macrae, 4 Dahl, McLean
 

Pearcey47

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#17
Westhoff most votes for Port looks the pick out of those markets.
 

IDIG

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#18
I don’t mind the look of Yeo over Gaff.

Also had an each way go at Gawn just in case there’s an over-correction from the umps (not) giving ruckmen votes.
 

MC's Mix

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#19
Just bumping this thread up - getting pumped for a big Brownlow night! I can't remember how long it's been since we've had such a tight group.

Fwiw my prediction is Titch/Beams/Dusty/Oliver/Cripps as a top 5.
I think Grundy and Gawn will both underpoll again, proving the whole 'midfielders medal' thing.

I got on Kelly when he was $4.50 for GWS but he's gone out now, so not sure.
I put a cheeky $10 on Weller to win GCS team votes at $18 as well haha
I multied Gray(port), Gaff, Heppell and Zorko (sans Beams) - now paying $5.35

What do you guys think? Any sneaky team winners?
 

IDIG

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#20
Some of my earlier each way bets were:
Gawn @ $11 (now $9)
Yeo @ $101 (now $34)

And i'm also on:
BYO Brownlow (T.Mitchell 30+ votes + D.Martin, Macrae, Beams, P.Cripps, Oliver, Gawn 20+ votes) @ 34
Boxed Tri (Titch/Gawn/Yeo) @ 51
Most team votes all the faves incl Buddy/Gray/Yeo/Cogs/Cotchin excl GC market @ 77.18 :p
 
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