Brownlow Discussion

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#21
@Zagbag, who is your top 4 leaderboard atm? Steele is extremely good value with him looking good to poll against syd tonight
Still have Walsh ahead of Steele, even if Steele polls 3 this round. Probably within a vote of each other. And Steele is clearly liked by the umpires.
 
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#22
Still have Walsh ahead of Steele, even if Steele polls 3 this round. Probably within a vote of each other. And Steele is clearly liked by the umpires.
So you must like Bont, wines, Oliver, Walsh, then Steele?
 
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#23
So you must like Bont, wines, Oliver, Walsh, then Steele?
Before this weekend, yes. Bont/Oliver/wines are all pretty close.

If I was to put another subjective overlay on it, I’d say even though the top 3 are within a vote or so, I’d probably still favour Bont just given his profile.
 
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#24
Before this weekend, yes. Bont/Oliver/wines are all pretty close.

If I was to put another subjective overlay on it, I’d say even though the top 3 are within a vote or so, I’d probably still favour Bont just given his profile.
Feel like Bont, Oliver and wines are all in the same boat the past weekend. All could poll 1 but most likely all will just miss out IMO. That leads us Zagbag into going into two rounds with the top 3 within a vote of each other
 
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#25
Feel like Bont, Oliver and wines are all in the same boat the past weekend. All could poll 1 but most likely all will just miss out IMO. That leads us Zagbag into going into two rounds with the top 3 within a vote of each other
For what it’s worth, this week I scored them
Bont 1.25
Wines 1.5
Oliver 0.5

Which again leaves them all within a vote of each other. Crazy finish ahead.
 
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#26
Here is my current breakdown and analysis for those interested as at Round 21.

There has only been one difficult year to pick since 2015, with Fyfe in 2019 winning when any of 6 could. His win in '15, followed by Danger, Dusty, TMitchell and later Neale were all lay down mazaires.

Right now I think Oliver should likely be leading, but all of Bont, Steele, Wines and Walsh are in the hunt. Miller is also at risk of polling maximum votes and being ineligible.

Oliver has polled coaches votes in 16 out of 20 games, vs Bont 12 out of 20. Bont's top end has been higher, no doubt, but weight of opportunities to poll is what I'm seeing as Oliver's advantage to get across the line, at least to the end of round 21.

Good money on Mills to finish top 20 (2.75).

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#27
Here is my current breakdown and analysis for those interested as at Round 21.

There has only been one difficult year to pick since 2015, with Fyfe in 2019 winning when any of 6 could. His win in '15, followed by Danger, Dusty, TMitchell and later Neale were all lay down mazaires.

Right now I think Oliver should likely be leading, but all of Bont, Steele, Wines and Walsh are in the hunt. Miller is also at risk of polling maximum votes and being ineligible.

Oliver has polled coaches votes in 16 out of 20 games, vs Bont 12 out of 20. Bont's top end has been higher, no doubt, but weight of opportunities to poll is what I'm seeing as Oliver's advantage to get across the line, at least to the end of round 21.

Good money on Mills to finish top 20 (2.75).

View attachment 33236
Great analysis, really hoping you're right with Clarry.

Fyfe in 2019 was a huge result for me. Won't forget cashing him to get the 3 votes in Round 10 at $26 vs Brisbane. Weight of money crunched it into $15 then $9, and Sportsbet wouldn't accept any more of my cash on it - but the other bookies that simply copy Sportsbet's odds got raided at the 15s too...

Bont's top end is higher as you say - I think he will benefit from a) kicking so many goals this year, and b) just being such a striking player. He's more likely to surprise to the upside.

We're fairly closely aligned on a number of players Merrett (you 24 vs me 19) and Mills (you 17 vs me 12) are the two biggest discrepancies.
 
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#28
Great analysis, really hoping you're right with Clarry.

Fyfe in 2019 was a huge result for me. Won't forget cashing him to get the 3 votes in Round 10 at $26 vs Brisbane. Weight of money crunched it into $15 then $9, and Sportsbet wouldn't accept any more of my cash on it - but the other bookies that simply copy Sportsbet's odds got raided at the 15s too...

Bont's top end is higher as you say - I think he will benefit from a) kicking so many goals this year, and b) just being such a striking player. He's more likely to surprise to the upside.

We're fairly closely aligned on a number of players Merrett (you 24 vs me 19) and Mills (you 17 vs me 12) are the two biggest discrepancies.
Yeah my countback on Merrett has him back to 21-22. Reckon Parish has him at this point, just. Mills a bit of an unknown quantity this year, given its his first full year in the midfield.

Well done if you picked Fyfe in 2019!

I went pretty hard on Oliver around Rd 9 when he was paying $17 - have been riding him all year!
 
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#31
Does Clarry lead your count mate? From wines then Bont? Then Steele?
I haven’t done the full numbers for this week, but it looks like Wines will just edge out Clarry in my formal count, then a 2 vote gap to Bont. Then 3 votes by Walsh/Trac.

It’s going to be so tight. Wines definitely doesn’t present as a Brownlow winner to me. Gun to my head, I think Bont gets it done, but I’ll be praying for a Clarry win
 
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#37
I think there are 6 chances to actually win - Bont, Steele, Petracca, Oliver, Wines, Macrae. They all played in teams that got a decent amount of wins, and were among the best two players in their team.

I suspect Oliver won't win, because he hasn't polled well previously. I doubt Macrae will win, because Bont was probably that little bit better and will take some of his votes. It will be hard for Steele to win with only 10 team wins, although he dominated in many of those, which raises his chances. Very hard to split the last three, but without analysing further I'll go with:

1. Bont
2. Wines
3. Petracca
4. Steele
5. Macrae
6. Oliver

Petracca probably had more quiet games than the other two, and I think the Bont might just had a slight edge over Wines in terms of noticability.
 
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#38
I think there are 6 chances to actually win - Bont, Steele, Petracca, Oliver, Wines, Macrae. They all played in teams that got a decent amount of wins, and were among the best two players in their team.

I suspect Oliver won't win, because he hasn't polled well previously. I doubt Macrae will win, because Bont was probably that little bit better and will take some of his votes. It will be hard for Steele to win with only 10 team wins, although he dominated in many of those, which raises his chances. Very hard to split the last three, but without analysing further I'll go with:

1. Bont
2. Wines
3. Petracca
4. Steele
5. Macrae
6. Oliver

Petracca probably had more quiet games than the other two, and I think the Bont might just had a slight edge over Wines in terms of noticability.
define: Oliver not polling well previously?
He polled 14 votes in a melbourne team who was trash last year with trac polling 20. His output is up from last year & not saying he will or won’t win; but he doesn’t have poor polling history IMO. If anything it’s the petracca Vs Oliver stealing votes of each other and petracca might overpoll a few votes as he was noticed last year but hey each to their own.
Love your summary though and think your on the ball with the candidates
 
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#39
define: Oliver not polling well previously?
He polled 14 votes in a melbourne team who was trash last year with trac polling 20. His output is up from last year & not saying he will or won’t win; but he doesn’t have poor polling history IMO. If anything it’s the petracca Vs Oliver stealing votes of each other and petracca might overpoll a few votes as he was noticed last year but hey each to their own.
Love your summary though and think your on the ball with the candidates
I think I'm probably remembering back to 2018. he was widely tipped to get about 20 votes, but only ended up on 13. Last two years have probably been more as expected.
 
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